Upside case
Bull case
$45+114.7%
HPQ would need investors to value it at roughly 16x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 7x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
HP Inc. (HPQ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
52
analysts
16 bullish · 8 bearish · 52 covering HPQ
Strong Buy
1
Buy
15
Hold
28
Sell
8
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$20
-6.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$22 – $45
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
7.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.4B
HPQ price targets
Three scenarios for where HPQ stock could go
Current
~$21
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $21
Bear
$22
Base
$24
Bull
$45
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$24+13.0%
At 8x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$22+3.5%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push HPQ down roughly 3% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
HP Inc.
HPQ · NYSETechnologyComputer HardwareOctober year-end
HP Inc. is a global technology company that manufactures personal computers, printers, and related supplies and services. It generates revenue primarily through two segments: Personal Systems (roughly 65% of revenue) selling PCs and workstations, and Printing (roughly 35%) selling printers and high-margin consumables like ink and toner. The company's competitive advantage lies in its entrenched enterprise relationships and the recurring revenue stream from its printer supplies business—often described as a "razor-and-blades" model.
Market Cap
$19.4B
Revenue TTM
$56.2B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
Net Margin
4.5%
HPQ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.71/$0.78
Revenue
$13.2B/$13.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.75/$0.74
Revenue
$13.9B/$13.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.93/$0.92
Revenue
$14.6B/$14.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.81/$0.77
Revenue
$14.4B/$13.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.71/$0.78 | -8.4% | $13.2B/$13.1B | +0.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.75/$0.74 | +0.7% | $13.9B/$13.7B | +1.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.93/$0.92 | +1.0% | $14.6B/$14.5B | +1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.81/$0.77 | +5.9% | $14.4B/$13.9B | +3.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$56.3B
+0.1% YoY
FY2
$56.5B
+0.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.84
+5.3% YoY
FY2
$2.99
+5.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.9B
FCF Margin: 5.1%
Next Earnings
May 27, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.71
Expected Revenue
$14.0B
HPQ beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
HPQ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $55.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Personal Systems Group
69.7%
+6.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
42.6%
+1.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Personal Systems Group is the largest disclosed segment at 69.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.5% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 42.6%, up 1.3% YoY.
HPQ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $59 — implies +181.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
181.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HPQ
8.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
68% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
HPQ
8.0x
vs
Technology
26.7x
70% discount
vs HPQ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
8.0x
vs
5Y Average
9.2x
13% discount
Forward PE
7.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-61%
Technology
22.1x
-67%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
8.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
-68%
Technology
26.7x
-70%
5Y Avg
9.2x
-13%
PEG Ratio
1.38x
S&P 500
1.72x
-20%
Technology
1.52x
-10%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-62%
Technology
17.5x
-66%
5Y Avg
7.7x
-24%
Price/FCF
6.9x
S&P 500
21.1x
-67%
Technology
19.5x
-65%
5Y Avg
8.7x
-21%
Price/Sales
0.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-89%
Technology
2.4x
-86%
5Y Avg
0.5x
-34%
Dividend Yield
5.40%
S&P 500
1.87%
+189%
Technology
1.16%
+366%
5Y Avg
3.45%
+57%
| Metric | HPQ | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg HPQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 7.4x | 19.1x-61% | 22.1x-67% | — |
| Trailing PE | 8.0x | 25.1x-68% | 26.7x-70% | 9.2x-13% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.38x | 1.72x-20% | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9x | 15.2x-62% | 17.5x-66% | 7.7x-24% |
| Price/FCF | 6.9x | 21.1x-67% | 19.5x-65% | 8.7x-21% |
| Price/Sales | 0.4x | 3.1x-89% | 2.4x-86% | 0.5x-34% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.40% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 3.45% |
HPQ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHPQ Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HPQ 41.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 9.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$56.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
20.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.69
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
41.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.5× FCF
~2.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
73.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.8%
Dividend
5.4%
Buyback
4.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$850M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.14
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
43.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
953M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHPQ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Financial Health and Liquidity
HP's current and quick ratios indicate potential liquidity challenges, with a negative debt-to-equity ratio suggesting a high level of leverage. An Altman Z-Score below the distress threshold highlights elevated financial distress risk.
High Risk
Intense Competition
HP operates in a highly competitive technology sector with numerous established players and emerging companies vying for market share. This intense competition can lead to pricing pressures, reduced profit margins, and challenges in maintaining or expanding market presence.
High Risk
Global Economic Conditions
Economic downturns and currency fluctuations can significantly impact HP's business by reducing consumer and business spending on technology products. This could adversely affect revenue and profitability.
Medium
Cyclical Nature of Markets
The personal computing and printing markets are highly sensitive to economic cycles. During downturns, purchasing decisions for new equipment may be delayed, leading to margin compression and reduced revenues.
Medium
Market and Technological Changes
The rapid pace of technological advancements poses a risk of products becoming obsolete. HP must continuously invest in research and development to stay relevant and meet evolving customer needs.
Medium
Component Costs and Tariffs
Higher tariffs and memory costs are impacting HP's margins. Tariffs increase the cost of components and materials, while memory shortages can further pressure margins.
Lower
Printing Segment Decline
HP's printing segment faces a structural decline due to digitization and remote work, with no recovery expected. This decline could further impact overall revenue.
Lower
Operational Risks
Factors such as human resources, lack of segregation of functions, and inadequate user and password administration can lead to operational risks, including fraud, theft, or data loss.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HPQ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
AI PCs and Advanced Compute
HP is focusing on the emerging AI PC market and advanced computing solutions. This is seen as a significant growth driver that could boost revenue and profit margins if the company executes well.
Cost Savings and Efficiency
HP has implemented significant cost-saving programs, including a target of $1.9 billion in structural savings. The company is also identifying further savings through AI initiatives, aiming for approximately $1 billion in annualized operational expense savings.
Attractive Valuation
HPQ stock is trading at a low P/E ratio, significantly below the broader market and its industry peers. Some analyses suggest the stock is undervalued, with a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis indicating a fair value significantly higher than its current trading price.
Dividend Payouts
HP has a strong track record of returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. It has consistently increased its quarterly dividend for 15 consecutive years, offering a dividend yield above 6%.
Revenue and Earnings Growth
For fiscal year 2025, revenue increased by 3.2% to $55.3 billion. Although earnings saw a slight decrease in fiscal year 2025, there are expectations for modest earnings growth in the coming year.
Product Innovation
Recent product launches, including new industrial 3D printing systems and an updated LaserJet portfolio, along with the 'HP IQ' on-device AI platform, are seen as potential catalysts for growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HPQ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$21.15
52W Range Position
30%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$17.56
+20.4% from the low
52-Week High
$29.55
-28.4% from the high
1 Month
+11.67%
3 Month
+10.44%
YTD
-4.4%
1 Year
-18.3%
3Y CAGR
-11.1%
5Y CAGR
-9.3%
10Y CAGR
+6.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HPQ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
7.4x
vs 24.8x median
-70% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.1%
vs +4.6% median
-98% below peer median
Net Margin
4.5%
vs 5.2% median
-15% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HPQ HPQ HP Inc. | $19.4B | 7.4x | +0.1% | 4.5% | Hold | -6.4% |
DEL DELL Dell Technologies Inc. | $72.3B | 21.7x | +4.6% | 5.2% | Buy | -22.1% |
AAP AAPL Apple Inc. | $4.17T | 33.4x | +4.0% | 27.2% | Buy | +11.6% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $3.06T | 24.8x | +7.0% | 39.3% | Buy | +34.1% |
XRX XRX Xerox Holdings Corporation | $345M | 5.7x | +5.7% | -14.1% | Sell | +288.3% |
INT INTC Intel Corporation | $543.2B | 103.7x | +3.9% | -5.9% | Hold | -28.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HPQ Dividend and Capital Return
HPQ returns 9.8% total yield, led by a 5.40% dividend, raised 9 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 4.4%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
9.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.4%
Dividend Yield
5.40%
Payout Ratio
43.0%
How HPQ Splits Its Return
Div 5.40%
Buyback 4.4%
Dividend 5.40%Buybacks 4.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.14
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
9Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.9%
5Y Div CAGR
10.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$850M
Estimated Shares Retired
40M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
953M
At 4.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.17 | +4.7% | 3.2% | 7.3% |
| 2024 | $1.12 | +5.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% |
| 2023 | $1.06 | +5.0% | 0.4% | 4.3% |
| 2022 | $1.01 | +21.8% | 14.8% | 18.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsHPQ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is HP Inc. (HPQ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
HP Inc. (HPQ) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 28 rate it Hold, and 8 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $20, implying -6.4% from the current price of $21. The bear case scenario is $22 and the bull case is $45.
02What is the HPQ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HPQ is $20 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $22 (+4.0% from today), and the low-end target is $18 (-14.9%). The base case model target is $24.
03Is HP Inc. (HPQ) stock overvalued in 2026?
HPQ trades at 7.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for HP Inc. (HPQ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HPQ in 2026 are: (1) Financial Health and Liquidity — HP's current and quick ratios indicate potential liquidity challenges, with a negative debt-to-equity ratio suggesting a high level of leverage. (2) Intense Competition — HP operates in a highly competitive technology sector with numerous established players and emerging companies vying for market share. (3) Global Economic Conditions — Economic downturns and currency fluctuations can significantly impact HP's business by reducing consumer and business spending on technology products. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is HP Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HPQ will report consensus revenue of $56.3B (+0.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.84 (+5.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $56.5B in revenue.
06When does HP Inc. (HPQ) report its next earnings?
HP Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-27. Consensus expects EPS of $0.71 and revenue of $14.0B. Over recent quarters, HPQ has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does HP Inc. generate?
HP Inc. (HPQ) generated $2.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.1%. HPQ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.4% yield) and share repurchases ($850M TTM).