Upside case
Bull case
$40+68.6%
HPQ would need investors to value it at roughly 13x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
HP Inc. (HPQ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
52
analysts
16 bullish · 8 bearish · 52 covering HPQ
Strong Buy
1
Buy
15
Hold
28
Sell
8
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$20
-15.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$19 – $40
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
7.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.5B
HPQ price targets
Three scenarios for where HPQ stock could go
Current
~$24
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $24
Bear
$19
Base
$30
Bull
$40
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$30+28.0%
At 10x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$19-19.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push HPQ down roughly 19% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
HP Inc.
HPQ · NYSETechnologyComputer HardwareOctober year-end
HP Inc. is a global technology company that manufactures personal computers, printers, and related supplies and services. It generates revenue primarily through two segments: Personal Systems (roughly 65% of revenue) selling PCs and workstations, and Printing (roughly 35%) selling printers and high-margin consumables like ink and toner. The company's competitive advantage lies in its entrenched enterprise relationships and the recurring revenue stream from its printer supplies business—often described as a "razor-and-blades" model.
Market Cap
$21.5B
Revenue TTM
$57.4B
Net Income TTM
$2.6B
Net Margin
4.4%
HPQ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.75/$0.74
Revenue
$13.9B/$13.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.93/$0.92
Revenue
$14.6B/$14.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.81/$0.77
Revenue
$14.4B/$13.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.86/$0.71
Revenue
$14.4B/$14.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.75/$0.74 | +0.7% | $13.9B/$13.7B | +1.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.93/$0.92 | +1.0% | $14.6B/$14.5B | +1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.81/$0.77 | +5.9% | $14.4B/$13.9B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.86/$0.71 | +21.0% | $14.4B/$14.0B | +3.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$58.1B
+1.2% YoY
FY2
$59.5B
+2.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.99
+8.3% YoY
FY2
$3.16
+5.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.8B
FCF Margin: 6.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HPQ beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HPQ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $55.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Personal Systems Group
69.7%
+6.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
42.6%
+1.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Personal Systems Group is the largest disclosed segment at 69.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.5% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 42.6%, up 1.3% YoY.
HPQ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $100 — implies +324.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
324.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HPQ
8.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
64% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
HPQ
8.9x
vs
Technology
29.0x
69% discount
vs HPQ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
8.9x
vs
5Y Average
9.2x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
7.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-59%
Technology
22.3x
-65%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
8.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-64%
Technology
29.0x
-69%
5Y Avg
9.2x
-4%
PEG Ratio
1.53x
S&P 500
1.66x
-8%
Technology
1.51x
+2%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-58%
Technology
16.6x
-62%
5Y Avg
7.7x
-18%
Price/FCF
7.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
-63%
Technology
19.2x
-60%
5Y Avg
8.7x
-12%
Price/Sales
0.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-87%
Technology
2.4x
-84%
5Y Avg
0.5x
-27%
Dividend Yield
4.86%
S&P 500
1.91%
+154%
Technology
1.11%
+339%
5Y Avg
3.45%
+41%
| Metric | HPQ | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg HPQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 7.8x | 18.8x-59% | 22.3x-65% | — |
| Trailing PE | 8.9x | 24.4x-64% | 29.0x-69% | 9.2x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.53x | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3x | 15.2x-58% | 16.6x-62% | 7.7x-18% |
| Price/FCF | 7.7x | 20.7x-63% | 19.2x-60% | 8.7x-12% |
| Price/Sales | 0.4x | 3.1x-87% | 2.4x-84% | 0.5x-27% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.86% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 3.45% |
HPQ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHPQ Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HPQ 41.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 8.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$57.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
20.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.76
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
41.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.9× FCF
~1.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.8%
Dividend
4.9%
Buyback
4.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$850M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.14
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
43.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
915M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHPQ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Customer behavior shifts
Changes in customer purchasing behavior could negatively impact HP's revenue and market position.
High Risk
Supply chain disruptions
Industry component availability challenges may lead to production delays and increased costs.
Medium
Earnings uncertainty
Projected EPS carries a moderate confidence score (56/100), reflecting uncertainty in revenue and margin trends.
Lower
Competitive pressures
HP faces intense competition in the PC and printer markets, which could limit growth.
Medium
Market sentiment
Stock analysis indicates a Hold rating with limited upside potential, suggesting cautious investor sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HPQ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Revenue growth resilience
HP Inc. reported first-quarter revenue of $14.44 billion, up 6.9% year-over-year, demonstrating resilience despite broader revenue declines over multi-year periods.
Margin discipline and cash generation
The bull case emphasizes HP's strong margin discipline and cash generation capabilities, which support financial stability and shareholder returns.
Share repurchase program
HP reaffirmed its commitment to capital returns, continuing its multi-year share buyback program, signaling confidence in its financial health.
AI PC and gaming growth
New growth angles like AI PCs and gaming peripherals present opportunities for HP to expand its market share and drive future revenue.
Advanced battery materials innovation
HP is exploring advanced battery materials, which could provide a competitive edge in its hardware offerings and open new revenue streams.
Strong liquidity profile
HP maintains a tight liquidity profile on its balance sheet, ensuring operational flexibility and resilience in uncertain market conditions.
Diverse product portfolio
HP's wide range of products, including laptops, desktops, printers, and workstations, caters to consumers, SMBs, and large enterprises, diversifying revenue sources.
Non-GAAP earnings growth
First-quarter non-GAAP diluted EPS rose 9.5% year-over-year to $0.81, highlighting operational efficiency and profitability improvements.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HPQ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$23.50
52W Range Position
49%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$17.56
+33.8% from the low
52-Week High
$29.65
-20.7% from the high
1 Month
+12.33%
3 Month
+28.98%
YTD
+6.2%
1 Year
-2.8%
3Y CAGR
-8.0%
5Y CAGR
-3.9%
10Y CAGR
+6.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HPQ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
7.8x
vs 37.6x median
-79% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.2%
vs +5.1% median
-77% below peer median
Net Margin
4.4%
vs 6.3% median
-29% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HPQ HPQ HP Inc. | $21.5B | 7.8x | +1.2% | 4.4% | Hold | -15.6% |
DEL DELL Dell Technologies Inc. | $272.3B | 41.1x | +5.1% | 6.3% | Buy | +9.6% |
AAP AAPL Apple Inc. | $4.38T | 34.0x | +6.8% | 27.2% | Buy | +9.6% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $2.82T | 22.6x | +8.8% | 39.3% | Buy | +45.5% |
XRX XRX Xerox Holdings Corporation | $395M | — | +2.8% | -14.1% | Sell | +239.4% |
INT INTC Intel Corporation | $672.8B | 123.6x | +5.1% | -5.9% | Hold | -33.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HPQ Dividend and Capital Return
HPQ returns 8.8% total yield, led by a 4.86% dividend, raised 15 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 4.0%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
8.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.0%
Dividend Yield
4.86%
Payout Ratio
43.0%
How HPQ Splits Its Return
Div 4.86%
Buyback 4.0%
Dividend 4.86%Buybacks 4.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.14
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.9%
5Y Div CAGR
10.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$850M
Estimated Shares Retired
36M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
915M
At 4.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.90 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.17 | +4.7% | 3.2% | 7.3% |
| 2024 | $1.12 | +5.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% |
| 2023 | $1.06 | +5.0% | 0.4% | 4.3% |
| 2022 | $1.01 | +21.8% | 14.8% | 18.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsHPQ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is HP Inc. (HPQ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
HP Inc. (HPQ) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 28 rate it Hold, and 8 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $20, implying -15.6% from the current price of $24. The bear case scenario is $19 and the bull case is $40.
02What is the HPQ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HPQ is $20 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $22 (-6.4% from today), and the low-end target is $19 (-19.1%). The base case model target is $30.
03Is HP Inc. (HPQ) stock overvalued in 2026?
HPQ trades at 7.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for HP Inc. (HPQ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HPQ in 2026 are: (1) Supply chain disruptions — Industry component availability challenges may lead to production delays and increased costs. (2) Customer behavior shifts — Changes in customer purchasing behavior could negatively impact HP's revenue and market position. (3) Earnings uncertainty — Projected EPS carries a moderate confidence score (56/100), reflecting uncertainty in revenue and margin trends. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is HP Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HPQ will report consensus revenue of $58.1B (+1.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.99 (+8.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $59.5B in revenue.
06When does HP Inc. (HPQ) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HPQ is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does HP Inc. generate?
HP Inc. (HPQ) generated $3.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.6%. HPQ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.9% yield) and share repurchases ($850M TTM).