Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing IONQ more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
6
analysts
3 bullish · 0 bearish · 6 covering IONQ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$63
+12.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
6
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.7B
IONQ price targets
Three scenarios for where IONQ stock could go
Current
~$57
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
IonQ, Inc.
IONQ · NYSETechnologyComputer HardwareDecember year-end
IonQ is a quantum computing company that develops and sells access to general-purpose quantum computers. It generates revenue primarily through cloud-based quantum computing services — offering access via major cloud platforms like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud — with additional income from direct enterprise contracts and research partnerships. The company's key advantage lies in its trapped-ion quantum architecture, which offers superior qubit quality and coherence times compared to competing approaches.
Market Cap
$20.7B
Revenue TTM
$187M
Net Income TTM
$277M
Net Margin
148.1%
IONQ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-31.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.70/$-0.13
Revenue
$21M/$17M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-3.58/$-0.44
Revenue
$40M/$27M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.93/$-0.48
Revenue
$62M/$40M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.07/$-0.46
Revenue
$65M/$50M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.70/$-0.13 | -438.5% | $21M/$17M | +20.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $-3.58/$-0.44 | -713.6% | $40M/$27M | +47.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.93/$-0.48 | +502.1% | $62M/$40M | +53.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.07/$-0.46 | +548.5% | $65M/$50M | +30.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$215M
+14.9% YoY
FY2
$254M
+18.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.02
-96.9% YoY
FY2
$-0.14
-719.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$425M
FCF Margin: -227.0%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.29
Expected Revenue
$64M
IONQ beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
IONQ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $130M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
66.9%
+113.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 66.9%, up 113.6% YoY.
IONQ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $22 — implies -60.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
60.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
IONQ
-31.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
227% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
IONQ
-31.1x
vs
Technology
29.0x
207% discount
vs IONQ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-31.1x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Technology
22.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-31.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-227%
Technology
29.0x
-207%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Technology
16.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Technology
19.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
159.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+5058%
Technology
2.4x
+6440%
5Y Avg
—
—
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | IONQ | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg IONQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 22.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | -31.1x | 24.4x-227% | 29.0x-207% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 16.6x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 19.2x | — |
| Price/Sales | 159.5x | 3.1x+5058% | 2.4x+6440% | — |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
IONQ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolIONQ Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for IONQ are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$187M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+334.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
38.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-443.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
148.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.75
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$425M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-227.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-30.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-30.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
367M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageIONQ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Technology Uncertainty
IonQ's ability to deliver a fault-tolerant quantum computer is not guaranteed, despite being a leader in the field.
High Risk
Financial Losses
IonQ has deep operating losses driven by R&D, acquisitions, and stock-based compensation, raising sustainability concerns.
Medium
Market Speculation
The stock's high-risk, high-reward nature makes it speculative, with uncertain long-term viability.
Medium
Revenue Growth Challenges
Despite projected revenue growth, IonQ's actual financial performance may not meet bullish forecasts.
Lower
Competitive Position
As a leader in trapped-ion quantum computing, IonQ maintains a strong but unproven market position.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why IONQ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Pure-play quantum leader
IonQ is the largest pure-play quantum computing company by market value, with a focus on trapped-ion technology and full-stack quantum solutions.
Strong revenue growth
The company has demonstrated accelerating revenue growth, with $130M reported in 2025 and guidance of $260-270M for 2026, exceeding milestones ahead of schedule.
Technological leadership
IonQ's trapped-ion quantum systems achieve industry-leading 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity, operate near room temperature, and cost significantly less than superconducting alternatives.
Robust cash position
With $3.1B in cash, IonQ has a strong balance sheet that mitigates solvency risk and supports continued R&D and scaling efforts.
Patent moat and scaling
The company benefits from a strong patent portfolio and a factory-based scaling strategy, reinforcing its competitive advantage in quantum computing.
Short squeeze potential
Approximately 22% of the float is sold short, creating potential for sharp short-covering rallies if positive catalysts emerge.
First-mover revenue milestone
IonQ is the first quantum computing company to surpass $100M in annual revenue, demonstrating early commercial traction in the industry.
Cost advantage
IonQ's systems cost around $30M each, compared to $1B for superconducting competitors, offering a significant cost advantage in quantum computing solutions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
IONQ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$56.55
52W Range Position
52%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$25.89
+118.4% from the low
52-Week High
$84.64
-33.2% from the high
1 Month
+14.68%
3 Month
+74.64%
YTD
+20.9%
1 Year
+42.7%
3Y CAGR
+82.5%
5Y CAGR
+40.6%
10Y CAGR
+18.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
IONQ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 23.0x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+14.9%
vs +9.0% median
+66% above peer median
Net Margin
148.1%
vs -916.2% median
+116% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ION IONQ IonQ, Inc. | $20.7B | — | +14.9% | 148.1% | Buy | +12.1% |
RGT RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. | $7.1B | — | +9.9% | -2253.6% | Buy | +42.8% |
QBT QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. | $9.1B | — | +9.0% | -2957.2% | Buy | +34.7% |
QUB QUBT Quantum Computing, Inc. | $1.5B | — | +9.0% | -916.2% | Buy | +85.9% |
IBM IBM International Business Machines Corporation | $233.7B | 20.0x | +3.7% | 15.6% | Hold | +25.0% |
GOO GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | $4.45T | 25.9x | +14.6% | 37.9% | Buy | +11.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsIONQ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 6 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $63, implying +12.1% from the current price of $57.
02What is the IONQ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for IONQ is $63 based on 6 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $85 (+50.3% from today), and the low-end target is $49 (-14.2%).
03Is IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for IONQ is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for IONQ in 2026 are: (1) Technology Uncertainty — IonQ's ability to deliver a fault-tolerant quantum computer is not guaranteed, despite being a leader in the field. (2) Financial Losses — IonQ has deep operating losses driven by R&D, acquisitions, and stock-based compensation, raising sustainability concerns. (3) Market Speculation — The stock's high-risk, high-reward nature makes it speculative, with uncertain long-term viability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is IonQ, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates IONQ will report consensus revenue of $215M (+14.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.02 (-96.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $254M in revenue.
06When does IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) report its next earnings?
IonQ, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.29 and revenue of $64M. Over recent quarters, IONQ has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does IonQ, Inc. generate?
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) had a free cash outflow of $425M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 227.0%. IONQ returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).