Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing IONQ more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
6
analysts
3 bullish · 0 bearish · 6 covering IONQ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$67
+26.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
6
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.3B
IONQ price targets
Three scenarios for where IONQ stock could go
Current
~$53
Confidence
32 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
IonQ, Inc.
IONQ · NYSETechnologyComputer HardwareDecember year-end
IonQ is a quantum computing company that develops and sells access to general-purpose quantum computers. It generates revenue primarily through cloud-based quantum computing services — offering access via major cloud platforms like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud — with additional income from direct enterprise contracts and research partnerships. The company's key advantage lies in its trapped-ion quantum architecture, which offers superior qubit quality and coherence times compared to competing approaches.
Market Cap
$19.3B
Revenue TTM
$187M
Net Income TTM
$277M
Net Margin
148.1%
IONQ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-83.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.14/$-0.26
Revenue
$8M/$8M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.70/$-0.13
Revenue
$21M/$17M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-3.58/$-0.44
Revenue
$40M/$27M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.93/$-0.48
Revenue
$62M/$40M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.14/$-0.26 | +46.2% | $8M/$8M | +0.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.70/$-0.13 | -438.5% | $21M/$17M | +20.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $-3.58/$-0.44 | -713.6% | $40M/$27M | +47.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.93/$-0.48 | +502.1% | $62M/$40M | +53.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$188M
+44.3% YoY
FY2
$256M
+36.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.54
+64.3% YoY
FY2
$0.04
+108.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$425M
FCF Margin: -227.0%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.26
Expected Revenue
$50M
IONQ beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
IONQ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $130M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
66.9%
+113.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 66.9%, up 113.6% YoY.
IONQ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $53 — implies +15.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
15.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
IONQ
-28.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
214% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
IONQ
-28.9x
vs
Technology
27.5x
205% discount
vs IONQ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-28.9x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Technology
21.7x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-28.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-214%
Technology
27.5x
-205%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Technology
17.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Technology
19.8x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
148.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+4633%
Technology
2.4x
+6042%
5Y Avg
—
—
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | IONQ | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg IONQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 21.7x | — |
| Trailing PE | -28.9x | 25.2x-214% | 27.5x-205% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 17.4x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 19.8x | — |
| Price/Sales | 148.2x | 3.1x+4633% | 2.4x+6042% | — |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
IONQ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolIONQ Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for IONQ are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$187M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+334.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
38.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-443.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
148.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.75
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$425M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-227.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-30.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-30.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
367M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageIONQ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Path to Profitability
IonQ has a history of operating losses and is not yet profitable, with projected losses expected to widen. This raises concerns about its uncertain path to profitability and potentially high valuation, which relies heavily on future flawless execution.
High Risk
Share Price Volatility
The market price of IonQ's stock can be highly volatile, influenced by numerous external factors beyond the company's control. This volatility could lead to significant declines in investment value.
High Risk
Technological Obsolescence
The rapid pace of technological advancement in quantum computing poses a risk of IonQ's systems becoming obsolete. This could severely impact its competitive position and market relevance.
Medium
Cash Burn and Dilution
IonQ is experiencing significant cash burn and may need to dilute shares in the future to fund operations and technology investments. This could negatively affect existing shareholders' equity.
Medium
Intense Competition
IonQ operates in a highly competitive quantum computing sector, where increasing competition could pressure its market share and pricing power. This competitive landscape may hinder its growth prospects.
Medium
Limited Operating History
IonQ's limited operating history complicates accurate forecasting of future results. This uncertainty can affect investor confidence and stock performance.
Lower
Regulatory Changes
Evolving laws and regulations could impact IonQ's operations and market access. While this risk is present, the immediate financial impact is considered lower compared to other factors.
Lower
Supply Chain Issues
Potential disruptions in the supply chain could impact production timelines and cost structures. However, the overall impact on IonQ's financials is expected to be lower.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why IONQ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Technological Prowess
IonQ has achieved a world-record 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity, which is crucial for accurate quantum operations. This high fidelity allows for a significant performance increase compared to systems with lower fidelity, making their trapped-ion technology both stable and scalable.
Strong Revenue Growth
IonQ surpassed $100 million in annual GAAP revenue in 2025, reporting $130 million, a 202% year-over-year increase. Management projects revenue between $225 million and $245 million for 2026, indicating a tripling of revenue in 2025 largely driven by commercial customers.
Market Potential
Quantum computing is viewed as the next major technological breakthrough after AI, with the potential to revolutionize various fields by performing calculations exponentially faster than classical computers. The quantum computing market is projected to expand significantly in the coming years, presenting vast opportunities for growth.
Commercial Traction and Contracts
IonQ is transitioning from a speculative story to demonstrating real commercial progress, having secured significant contracts such as a DARPA HARQ contract and participation in the Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD IDIQ contract. Additionally, the launch of IonQ Federal focuses on government contracts, further enhancing their commercial footprint.
Strong Balance Sheet
IonQ ended 2025 with $3.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, providing a substantial cash reserve. This strong financial position reduces near-term financing risk and offers capital for operations and potential acquisitions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
IONQ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$52.57
52W Range Position
45%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$25.89
+103.1% from the low
52-Week High
$84.64
-37.9% from the high
1 Month
+79.79%
3 Month
+50.24%
YTD
+12.4%
1 Year
+78.7%
3Y CAGR
+104.5%
5Y CAGR
+38.6%
10Y CAGR
+17.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
IONQ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 23.9x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+44.3%
vs +36.5% median
+21% above peer median
Net Margin
148.1%
vs -1444.1% median
+110% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ION IONQ IonQ, Inc. | $19.3B | — | +44.3% | 148.1% | Buy | +26.5% |
RGT RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. | $6.6B | — | +36.5% | -3050.4% | Buy | +77.9% |
QBT QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. | $8.5B | — | +57.6% | -1444.1% | Buy | +63.1% |
QUB QUBT Quantum Computing, Inc. | $2.3B | — | +520.2% | -2738.1% | Buy | +53.0% |
IBM IBM International Business Machines Corporation | $211.8B | 18.2x | +4.9% | 15.6% | Hold | +37.2% |
GOO GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | $4.81T | 29.6x | +14.1% | 37.9% | Buy | +2.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsIONQ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 6 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $67, implying +26.5% from the current price of $53.
02What is the IONQ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for IONQ is $67 based on 6 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+90.2% from today), and the low-end target is $37 (-29.6%).
03Is IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for IONQ is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for IONQ in 2026 are: (1) Path to Profitability — IonQ has a history of operating losses and is not yet profitable, with projected losses expected to widen. (2) Share Price Volatility — The market price of IonQ's stock can be highly volatile, influenced by numerous external factors beyond the company's control. (3) Technological Obsolescence — The rapid pace of technological advancement in quantum computing poses a risk of IonQ's systems becoming obsolete. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is IonQ, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates IONQ will report consensus revenue of $188M (+44.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.54 (+64.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $256M in revenue.
06When does IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) report its next earnings?
IonQ, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.26 and revenue of $50M. Over recent quarters, IONQ has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does IonQ, Inc. generate?
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) had a free cash outflow of $425M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 227.0%. IONQ returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).