Upside case
Bull case
$632+62.8%
GOOGL would need investors to value it at roughly 47x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 29x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
82
analysts
71 bullish · 1 bearish · 82 covering GOOGL
Strong Buy
2
Buy
69
Hold
10
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$406
+4.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$274 – $632
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
82
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
28.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $4.70T
GOOGL price targets
Three scenarios for where GOOGL stock could go
Current
~$388
Confidence
84 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $388
Bear
$274
Base
$572
Bull
$632
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$572+47.3%
At 43x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$274-29.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push GOOGL down roughly 30% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Alphabet Inc.
GOOGL · NASDAQTechnologyInternet Content & InformationDecember year-end
Alphabet is a technology conglomerate best known as the parent company of Google, which dominates the digital advertising market through search, YouTube, and display ads. It generates over 80% of its revenue from advertising, with the remainder coming from Google Cloud services, hardware sales, and subscription products like YouTube Premium. Its primary moat is the massive network effect of its search ecosystem — billions of users, advertisers, and content creators locked into its platforms through data, scale, and habit.
Market Cap
$4.70T
Revenue TTM
$422.6B
Net Income TTM
$160.2B
Net Margin
37.9%
GOOGL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+19.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.31/$2.15
Revenue
$96.4B/$99.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.87/$2.30
Revenue
$102.3B/$99.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.82/$2.57
Revenue
$113.8B/$111.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.11/$2.64
Revenue
$109.9B/$107.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.31/$2.15 | +7.4% | $96.4B/$99.8B | -3.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.87/$2.30 | +24.8% | $102.3B/$99.9B | +2.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.82/$2.57 | +9.7% | $113.8B/$111.3B | +2.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.11/$2.64 | +93.6% | $109.9B/$107.0B | +2.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$482.1B
+14.1% YoY
FY2
$560.2B
+16.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$14.08
+7.5% YoY
FY2
$15.93
+13.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$73.3B
FCF Margin: 17.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GOOGL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
GOOGL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $402.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Google Search & Other
55.7%
+13.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
48.2%
+13.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Google Search & Other is the largest disclosed segment at 55.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 13.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 48.2%, up 13.9% YoY.
GOOGL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $256 — implies -33.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
33.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GOOGL
35.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+43% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
GOOGL
35.9x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+34% premium
vs GOOGL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.9x
vs
5Y Average
24.4x
+48% premium
Forward PE
28.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+51%
Technology
22.1x
+31%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
+43%
Technology
26.7x
+34%
5Y Avg
24.4x
+48%
PEG Ratio
1.20x
S&P 500
1.72x
-30%
Technology
1.52x
-21%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
31.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+107%
Technology
17.5x
+80%
5Y Avg
19.5x
+61%
Price/FCF
64.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
+204%
Technology
19.5x
+229%
5Y Avg
31.8x
+102%
Price/Sales
11.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+273%
Technology
2.4x
+377%
5Y Avg
6.7x
+73%
Dividend Yield
0.21%
S&P 500
1.87%
-89%
Technology
1.16%
-82%
5Y Avg
0.29%
-26%
| Metric | GOOGL | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg GOOGL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 28.9x | 19.1x+51% | 22.1x+31% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.9x | 25.1x+43% | 26.7x+34% | 24.4x+48% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.20x | 1.72x-30% | 1.52x-21% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.5x | 15.2x+107% | 17.5x+80% | 19.5x+61% |
| Price/FCF | 64.1x | 21.1x+204% | 19.5x+229% | 31.8x+102% |
| Price/Sales | 11.7x | 3.1x+273% | 2.4x+377% | 6.7x+73% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.21% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 0.29% |
GOOGL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGOOGL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
GOOGL generates $73.3B in free cash flow at a 17.3% margin — 25.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$422.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+17.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
60.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
32.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
37.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$13.09
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$73.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
17.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
25.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
27.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$30.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$28.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.4× FCF
~0.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
39.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.2%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$45.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.82
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
7.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
12.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGOOGL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory & Antitrust Scrutiny
Alphabet faces intense global antitrust investigations, including probes into its ad‑tech practices and default search provider agreements. Potential remedies could involve divestitures of key business units, while the EU’s Digital Markets Act investigation targets alleged anti‑competitive conduct.
High Risk
Capital Expenditure & Margin Risk
The company plans to spend $85 billion on AI and cloud infrastructure in 2025. If these investments fail to generate expected returns, profit margins could be pressured and revenue growth may slow.
Medium
Generative AI Threat to Search
Generative AI platforms are reshaping how users seek information, potentially eroding Alphabet’s query volume, ad impressions and click‑through rates. The company must balance AI innovation with protecting its core search revenue streams.
Medium
Cloud Competition from Microsoft & Amazon
Alphabet’s cloud business faces stiff rivalry from Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services, which could limit market share gains and compress operating margins in the cloud segment.
Lower
Market Volatility & Macro Risks
GOOGL stock historically declines more sharply than the S&P 500 during market sell‑offs. Trade‑war tensions and capital outflows can further dampen growth‑focused tech stocks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GOOGL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Dominant Search & YouTube Revenue Base
Alphabet's core businesses in Search and YouTube continue to generate strong revenue, holding significant market share. The ecosystem of Android and Maps reinforces data and monetization loops, supporting sustained top‑line growth.
AI‑Powered Growth via Gemini Models
Alphabet is heavily investing in AI, integrating its Gemini models across Search, Ads, and Cloud. AI is expected to enhance user engagement, improve advertising efficiency, and drive revenue growth, particularly in search monetization.
Robust Financials & Capital Allocation
Alphabet demonstrates robust revenue growth with recent quarters showing significant year‑over‑year increases. A strong balance sheet with substantial cash reserves and operating cash flow, coupled with improving operating margins and active share buybacks, underpins long‑term value creation.
Google Cloud as a Growth Engine
Google Cloud is a significant growth engine, with rapidly increasing revenue and a substantial backlog of contracted revenue. Partnerships with major companies strengthen its position, and AI‑driven investments are expected to fuel future cloud growth and profitability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GOOGL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$388.47
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$147.84
+162.8% from the low
52-Week High
$392.82
-1.1% from the high
1 Month
+29.49%
3 Month
+17.27%
YTD
+23.3%
1 Year
+136.6%
3Y CAGR
+54.4%
5Y CAGR
+27.4%
10Y CAGR
+26.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GOOGL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
28.9x
vs 24.8x median
+17% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.1%
vs +7.0% median
+101% above peer median
Net Margin
37.9%
vs 27.2% median
+40% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GOO GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | $4.70T | 28.9x | +14.1% | 37.9% | Buy | +4.6% |
MET META Meta Platforms, Inc. | $1.53T | 20.0x | +16.1% | 32.8% | Buy | +35.8% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $3.06T | 24.8x | +7.0% | 39.3% | Buy | +34.1% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.94T | 35.1x | +10.0% | 12.2% | Buy | +12.2% |
AAP AAPL Apple Inc. | $4.17T | 33.4x | +4.0% | 27.2% | Buy | +11.6% |
BID BIDU Baidu, Inc. | $44.2B | 2.3x | +1.5% | 6.9% | Buy | +22.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GOOGL Dividend and Capital Return
GOOGL returns capital mainly through $45.7B/year in buybacks (1.0% buyback yield), with a modest 0.21% dividend — combining for 1.2% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
0.21%
Payout Ratio
7.6%
How GOOGL Splits Its Return
Div 0.21%
Buyback 1.0%
Dividend 0.21%Buybacks 1.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.82
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$45.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
118M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
12.1B
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.83 | +38.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| 2024 | $0.60 | — | 2.6% | 3.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsGOOGL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 82 analysts covering the stock, 71 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $406, implying +4.6% from the current price of $388. The bear case scenario is $274 and the bull case is $632.
02What is the GOOGL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GOOGL is $406 based on 82 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $460 (+18.4% from today), and the low-end target is $355 (-8.6%). The base case model target is $572.
03Is Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) stock overvalued in 2026?
GOOGL trades at 28.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GOOGL in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & Antitrust Scrutiny — Alphabet faces intense global antitrust investigations, including probes into its ad‑tech practices and default search provider agreements. (2) Capital Expenditure & Margin Risk — The company plans to spend $85 billion on AI and cloud infrastructure in 2025. (3) Generative AI Threat to Search — Generative AI platforms are reshaping how users seek information, potentially eroding Alphabet’s query volume, ad impressions and click‑through rates. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Alphabet Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GOOGL will report consensus revenue of $482.1B (+14.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $14.08 (+7.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $560.2B in revenue.
06When does Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GOOGL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Alphabet Inc. generate?
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) generated $73.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.3%. GOOGL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($45.7B TTM).