Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing QBTS more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 12, 2026
D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 13 covering QBTS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$35
+31.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.7B
QBTS price targets
Three scenarios for where QBTS stock could go
Current
~$26
Confidence
41 / 100
Updated
Jun 12, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
D-Wave Quantum Inc.
QBTS · NYSETechnologyComputer HardwareDecember year-end
D-Wave Quantum is a quantum computing company that develops and delivers quantum systems, software, and cloud services for enterprise applications. It generates revenue primarily through its Leap cloud subscription service — which provides real-time access to quantum computers — along with professional services and system sales. The company's key advantage is its focus on annealing quantum computers — a specialized approach that offers practical advantages for optimization problems over gate-based quantum systems.
Market Cap
$9.7B
Revenue TTM
$12M
Net Income TTM
-$368M
Net Margin
-2957.2%
QBTS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
27%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
27%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-155.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.55/$-0.06
Revenue
$3M/$3M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.41/$-0.07
Revenue
$4M/$3M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.12/$-0.05
Revenue
$3M/$4M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.05/$-0.08
Revenue
$3M/$4M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.55/$-0.06 | -816.7% | $3M/$3M | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.41/$-0.07 | -525.1% | $4M/$3M | +23.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.12/$-0.05 | -140.0% | $3M/$4M | -26.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.05/$-0.08 | +34.7% | $3M/$4M | -31.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14M
+9.0% YoY
FY2
$15M
+8.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.01
+99.2% YoY
FY2
$-0.01
— YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$102M
FCF Margin: -821.0%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.08
Expected Revenue
$4M
QBTS beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
QBTS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $19M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
System Sales
84.9%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
GERMANY
68.2%
+785.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
System Sales is the largest disclosed segment at 84.9% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
GERMANY is the largest reported region at 68.2%, up 785.2% YoY.
QBTS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
QBTS
-23.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.0x
195% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
QBTS
-23.7x
vs
Technology
29.0x
182% discount
vs QBTS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-23.7x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Technology
23.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-23.7x
S&P 500
25.0x
-195%
Technology
29.0x
-182%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.69x
—
Technology
1.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.4x
—
Technology
17.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.2x
—
Technology
19.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
392.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+12413%
Technology
2.5x
+15874%
5Y Avg
18.9x
+1974%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.07%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | QBTS | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg QBTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 23.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | -23.7x | 25.0x-195% | 29.0x-182% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.69x | 1.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.4x | 17.0x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.2x | 19.2x | — |
| Price/Sales | 392.9x | 3.1x+12413% | 2.5x+15874% | 18.9x+1974% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.07% | — |
QBTS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolQBTS Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for QBTS are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-41.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
66.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-1155.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-2957.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.00
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$102M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-821.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-82.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-38.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$635M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$592M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-44.1%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-82.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$38M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
367M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageQBTS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
GERMANY exposure
GERMANY represents 68.2% of disclosed revenue and changed 785.2% year over year. A sharper slowdown, policy change, or competitive shift in that market would hit the revenue base quickly and could pull expectations toward the lower end of the valuation range.
High Risk
System Sales dependence
System Sales contributes 84.9% of the disclosed revenue mix. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
Medium
Valuation de-rating
QBTS trades at -23.7x trailing earnings versus 25.0x for the S&P 500 and 29.0x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of —.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $14M in revenue (9.0% growth) and $-0.01 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by -$102M in trailing free cash flow, a 0.4% buyback yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why QBTS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
D-Wave Quantum Inc. already operates from a position of scale, with 66.3% gross margin, -1155.6% operating margin, and -$102M in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Professional Services still matters
Professional Services accounts for 14.3% of disclosed revenue and the latest annual change was 40.4%. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $35, or 31.2% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches —. If $14M in forward revenue and $-0.01 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 0.4% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
QBTS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$26.30
52W Range Position
40%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$12.75
+106.3% from the low
52-Week High
$46.75
-43.7% from the high
1 Month
+29.24%
3 Month
+50.54%
YTD
-6.5%
1 Year
+64.4%
3Y CAGR
+136.0%
5Y CAGR
+21.6%
10Y CAGR
+10.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
QBTS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 21.6x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+9.0%
vs +9.9% median
-9% below peer median
Net Margin
-2957.2%
vs -916.2% median
-223% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QBT QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. | $9.7B | — | +9.0% | -2957.2% | Buy | +31.2% |
ION IONQ IonQ, Inc. | $22.4B | — | +14.9% | 148.1% | Buy | +2.5% |
RGT RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. | $7.5B | — | +9.9% | -2253.6% | Buy | +37.3% |
QUB QUBT Quantum Computing, Inc. | $1.5B | — | +9.0% | -916.2% | Buy | +44.1% |
ARQ ARQQ Arqit Quantum Inc. | $280M | — | +19.7% | -5272.0% | Buy | +234.8% |
IBM IBM International Business Machines Corporation | $252.1B | 21.6x | +3.7% | 15.6% | Hold | +15.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
QBTS Dividend and Capital Return
QBTS returns 0.4% annually — null% through dividends and 0.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$38M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
367M
FAQ
7 questionsQBTS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $35, implying +31.2% from the current price of $26.
02What is the QBTS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for QBTS is $35 based on 13 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $45 (+71.1% from today), and the low-end target is $22 (-16.3%).
03Is D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for QBTS is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for QBTS in 2026 are: (1) GERMANY exposure — GERMANY represents 68. (2) System Sales dependence — System Sales contributes 84. (3) Valuation de-rating — QBTS trades at -23. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is D-Wave Quantum Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates QBTS will report consensus revenue of $14M (+9.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.01 (+99.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $15M in revenue.
06When does D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) report its next earnings?
D-Wave Quantum Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.08 and revenue of $4M. Over recent quarters, QBTS has beaten EPS estimates 27% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does D-Wave Quantum Inc. generate?
D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) had a free cash outflow of $102M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 821.0%. QBTS returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($38M TTM).