Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing RIOT more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
18
analysts
17 bullish · 0 bearish · 18 covering RIOT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$27
-3.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.7B
RIOT price targets
Three scenarios for where RIOT stock could go
Current
~$28
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Riot Platforms, Inc.
RIOT · NASDAQFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsDecember year-end
Riot Platforms is a Bitcoin mining company that operates large-scale mining facilities in Texas and Kentucky. It generates revenue primarily from Bitcoin mining rewards (the majority of income) and secondarily from engineering services — designing and manufacturing power distribution equipment for data centers and industrial clients. The company's competitive advantage lies in its vertically integrated operations — owning its mining facilities and power infrastructure — which provides cost control and operational efficiency in the energy-intensive mining business.
Market Cap
$10.7B
Revenue TTM
$653M
Net Income TTM
-$867M
Net Margin
-132.8%
RIOT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.57/$-0.19
Revenue
$153M/$168M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.26/$-0.19
Revenue
$180M/$160M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-2.03/$-0.22
Revenue
$153M/$160M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-1.44/$-0.33
Revenue
$167M/$131M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.57/$-0.19 | +400.0% | $153M/$168M | -9.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.26/$-0.19 | +236.8% | $180M/$160M | +13.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $-2.03/$-0.22 | -822.7% | $153M/$160M | -4.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $-1.44/$-0.33 | -336.4% | $167M/$131M | +28.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$721M
+10.4% YoY
FY2
$805M
+11.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-2.22
+11.1% YoY
FY2
$-1.80
+18.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.0B
FCF Margin: -156.7%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.21
Expected Revenue
$156M
RIOT beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
RIOT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $671M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Bitcoin Mining Segment
85.9%
+79.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Bitcoin Mining Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 85.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 79.5% YoY.
RIOT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $58 — implies +106.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
106.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RIOT
-14.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
159% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
RIOT
-14.4x
vs
Financial Services
13.6x
206% discount
vs RIOT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-14.4x
vs
5Y Average
30.0x
148% discount
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Financial Services
10.7x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-14.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-159%
Financial Services
13.6x
-206%
5Y Avg
30.0x
-148%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Financial Services
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Financial Services
11.4x
—
5Y Avg
10.5x
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Financial Services
11.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
16.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+432%
Financial Services
2.3x
+606%
5Y Avg
7.3x
+125%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Financial Services
2.63%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | RIOT | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg RIOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 10.7x | — |
| Trailing PE | -14.4x | 24.4x-159% | 13.6x-206% | 30.0x-148% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 11.4x | 10.5x |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 11.1x | — |
| Price/Sales | 16.5x | 3.1x+432% | 2.3x+606% | 7.3x+125% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.63% | — |
RIOT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRIOT Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
RIOT generates -28.8% ROE and -21.5% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$653M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-125.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-132.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-2.49
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
-28.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-8.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-21.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$234M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$46M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
-28.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$4M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
379M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageRIOT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
Bitcoin Mining Segment dependence
Bitcoin Mining Segment contributes 85.9% of the disclosed revenue mix, with the latest annual change at 79.5%. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
Medium
Valuation de-rating
RIOT trades at -14.4x trailing earnings versus 24.4x for the S&P 500 and 13.6x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of —.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $721M in revenue (10.4% growth) and $-2.22 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by -$1.0B in trailing free cash flow, a 0.0% buyback yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RIOT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
Riot Platforms, Inc. already operates from a position of scale, with -13.6% gross margin, -125.0% operating margin, and -$1.0B in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Engineering Segment still matters
Engineering Segment accounts for 14.1% of disclosed revenue and the latest annual change was 103.2%. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $27, or -3.0% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches —. If $721M in forward revenue and $-2.22 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 0.0% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RIOT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$28.10
52W Range Position
96%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$8.87
+216.8% from the low
52-Week High
$28.94
-2.9% from the high
1 Month
+21.23%
3 Month
+99.29%
YTD
+98.4%
1 Year
+182.7%
3Y CAGR
+35.7%
5Y CAGR
-2.7%
10Y CAGR
+22.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RIOT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+10.4%
vs +14.6% median
-29% below peer median
Net Margin
-132.8%
vs -151.2% median
+12% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RIO RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. | $10.7B | — | +10.4% | -132.8% | Buy | -3.0% |
MAR MARA Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. | $5.4B | — | +12.4% | -234.8% | Buy | -12.1% |
CLS CLSK CleanSpark, Inc. | $4.4B | — | +13.9% | -67.7% | Buy | +9.6% |
CIF CIFR Cipher Mining Inc. | $11.8B | — | +19.8% | -513.0% | Buy | +9.3% |
IRE IREN IREN Limited | $21.4B | — | +15.3% | 31.7% | Buy | +36.5% |
HUT HUT Hut 8 Corp. | $14.0B | — | — | — | Buy | -14.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RIOT Dividend and Capital Return
RIOT does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$4M
Estimated Shares Retired
152.6K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
379M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $1.00 | — |
FAQ
7 questionsRIOT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $27, implying -3.0% from the current price of $28.
02What is the RIOT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RIOT is $27 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $31 (+10.3% from today), and the low-end target is $24 (-14.6%).
03Is Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for RIOT is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RIOT in 2026 are: (1) Bitcoin Mining Segment dependence — Bitcoin Mining Segment contributes 85. (2) Valuation de-rating — RIOT trades at -14. (3) Estimate execution — The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $721M in revenue (10. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Riot Platforms, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RIOT will report consensus revenue of $721M (+10.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $-2.22 (+11.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $805M in revenue.
06When does Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) report its next earnings?
Riot Platforms, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.21 and revenue of $156M. Over recent quarters, RIOT has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Riot Platforms, Inc. generate?
Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) had a free cash outflow of $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 156.7%. RIOT returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($4M TTM).