Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing JOBY more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
8
analysts
2 bullish · 2 bearish · 8 covering JOBY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
2
Hold
4
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$16
+51.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
8
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.3B
JOBY price targets
Three scenarios for where JOBY stock could go
Current
~$11
Confidence
21 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Joby Aviation, Inc.
JOBY · NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesDecember year-end
Joby Aviation is developing an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft to operate an aerial ridesharing service. The company plans to generate revenue primarily through its air transportation-as-a-service model — charging passengers for on-demand flights — with potential future aircraft sales to partners. Its competitive advantage lies in being vertically integrated — designing and manufacturing its own aircraft, propulsion systems, and software stack — which gives it control over the entire ecosystem.
Market Cap
$10.3B
Revenue TTM
$78M
Net Income TTM
-$957M
Net Margin
-1232.6%
JOBY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
56%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-3.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.24/$-0.18
Revenue
$15000/$181400
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.26/$-0.19
Revenue
$23M/$3M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.20/$-0.20
Revenue
$31M/$16M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.21/$-0.21
Revenue
$24M/$20M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.24/$-0.18 | -33.3% | $15000/$181400 | -91.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.26/$-0.19 | -35.6% | $23M/$3M | +563.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.20/$-0.20 | +0.0% | $31M/$16M | +90.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.21/$-0.21 | +0.0% | $24M/$20M | +20.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$80M
+50.1% YoY
FY2
$117M
+46.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.20
+80.8% YoY
FY2
$-0.17
+17.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$661M
FCF Margin: -851.3%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.21
Expected Revenue
$20M
JOBY beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
JOBY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $53M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Passenger
65.2%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
66.9%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Passenger is the largest disclosed segment at 65.2% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 66.9%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
JOBY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $328 — implies +3450.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
3450.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
JOBY
-9.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
137% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
JOBY
-9.3x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
136% discount
vs JOBY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-9.3x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Industrials
20.8x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-9.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-137%
Industrials
25.9x
-136%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Industrials
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Industrials
13.9x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Industrials
20.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
193.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+6080%
Industrials
1.6x
+12079%
5Y Avg
—
—
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Industrials
1.24%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | JOBY | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg JOBY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 20.8x | — |
| Trailing PE | -9.3x | 25.2x-137% | 25.9x-136% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 13.9x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 20.6x | — |
| Price/Sales | 193.6x | 3.1x+6080% | 1.6x+12079% | — |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.24% | — |
JOBY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolJOBY Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for JOBY are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$78M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+69873.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
11.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-1017.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-1232.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.01
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$661M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-851.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-54.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-52.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$241M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$180M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-74.2%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-54.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
983M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageJOBY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
UNITED STATES exposure
UNITED STATES represents 66.9% of disclosed revenue. A sharper slowdown, policy change, or competitive shift in that market would hit the revenue base quickly and could pull expectations toward the lower end of the valuation range.
High Risk
Passenger dependence
Passenger contributes 65.2% of the disclosed revenue mix. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
Medium
Valuation de-rating
JOBY trades at -9.3x trailing earnings versus 25.2x for the S&P 500 and 25.9x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of —.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $80M in revenue (50.1% growth) and $-0.20 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by -$661M in trailing free cash flow, a 0.0% buyback yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why JOBY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
Joby Aviation, Inc. already operates from a position of scale, with 11.2% gross margin, -1017.0% operating margin, and -$661M in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Passenger still matters
Passenger accounts for 65.2% of disclosed revenue. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $16, or 51.1% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches —. If $80M in forward revenue and $-0.20 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 0.0% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
JOBY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$10.52
52W Range Position
29%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$6.18
+70.2% from the low
52-Week High
$20.95
-49.8% from the high
1 Month
+20.92%
3 Month
0.00%
YTD
-26.7%
1 Year
+65.4%
3Y CAGR
+34.0%
5Y CAGR
+1.2%
10Y CAGR
+0.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
JOBY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 2504.1x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+50.1%
vs +14.4% median
+248% above peer median
Net Margin
-1232.6%
vs -302.1% median
-308% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JOB JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. | $10.3B | — | +50.1% | -1232.6% | Hold | +51.1% |
ACH ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. | $4.8B | — | — | -206066.7% | Buy | +92.4% |
EVT EVTL Vertical Aerospace Ltd. | $278M | — | — | — | Buy | +304.4% |
WKH WKHS Workhorse Group Inc. | $36M | — | +16.7% | -606.7% | — | — |
BA BA The Boeing Company | $181.3B | 4955.4x | +14.0% | 2.5% | Buy | +14.7% |
HEI HEI HEICO Corporation | $25.0B | 52.8x | +14.4% | 15.4% | Buy | +25.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsJOBY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 8 analysts covering the stock, 2 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $16, implying +51.1% from the current price of $11.
02What is the JOBY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for JOBY is $16 based on 8 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $18 (+71.1% from today), and the low-end target is $10 (-4.9%).
03Is Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for JOBY is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for JOBY in 2026 are: (1) UNITED STATES exposure — UNITED STATES represents 66. (2) Passenger dependence — Passenger contributes 65. (3) Valuation de-rating — JOBY trades at -9. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Joby Aviation, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates JOBY will report consensus revenue of $80M (+50.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.20 (+80.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $117M in revenue.
06When does Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) report its next earnings?
Joby Aviation, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.21 and revenue of $20M. Over recent quarters, JOBY has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Joby Aviation, Inc. generate?
Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) had a free cash outflow of $661M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 851.3%. JOBY returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).