CarMax, Inc. (KMX) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$39.43
Price Target
$37.78
Target Range
$26.00 — $48.00
Analyst Rating
Hold
Forward P/E14.6x
Trailing P/E12.3x
Forward PEG—
Implied Growth-12.1%
Median Target$36.00
Analyst Spread58.2%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$26
-34.1%
Consensus
$38
-4.2%
Bull Case
$48
+21.7%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 58/100
Bear$26
Base$35
Bull$122
KMX Price Target Analysis
Updated May 6, 2026As of May 6, 2026, CarMax, Inc. (KMX) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $37.78, based on estimates from 35 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $39.43, this represents a potential downside of -4.2%. The company has a market capitalization of $5.64B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $26.00 to a high of $48.00, representing a 58% spread in expectations. The median target of $36.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 10 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,21 rating it Hold, and 4 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, KMX trades at a trailing P/E of 12.3x and forward P/E of 14.6x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -12.1% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $35.44, with bear and bull scenarios of $26.46 and $122.46 respectively. Model confidence stands at 58/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Consumer Cyclical stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+25.9%
Avg Forward P/E17.3x
Peers with Coverage9 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ANAutoNation, Inc. | $7.0B | $204.77 | $248.00 | +21.1% | Buy | 9.7x | 34 |
 PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc. | $11.2B | $169.73 | $190.00 | +11.9% | Buy | 12.8x | 26 |
 LADLithia Motors, Inc. | $6.6B | $289.40 | $411.67 | +42.2% | Buy | 8.4x | 26 |
 SAHSonic Automotive, Inc. | $2.7B | $79.00 | $67.33 | -14.8% | Hold | 12.2x | 16 |
 ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc. | $3.8B | $197.70 | $238.00 | +20.4% | Hold | 7.6x | 18 |
 GPIGroup 1 Automotive, Inc. | $4.1B | $343.97 | $476.67 | +38.6% | Buy | 8.3x | 24 |
 CVNACarvana Co. | $84.4B | $389.38 | $484.00 | +24.3% | Hold | 50.0x | 44 |
 VRMVroom, Inc. | $62M | $11.95 | — | — | — | — | — |
 ACVAACV Auctions Inc. | $909M | $5.22 | $9.00 | +72.4% | Buy | 27.0x | 17 |
 KAROPENLANE, Inc. | $2.9B | $27.44 | $32.00 | +16.6% | Buy | 19.3x | 18 |
Upside Potential Comparison
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Start ComparisonKMX — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying KMX stock.
What is the KMX stock price target for 2026?
Wall Street's consensus price target for KMX is $37.78, -4.2% from its current price of $39.43. The below-market target from 35 analysts suggests limited near-term appreciation.
Is KMX a buy, sell, or hold?
KMX has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 35 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 21 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $37.78 implies -4.2% downside from current levels.
Is KMX stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 14.6362x, KMX trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $37.78 implies -4.2% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
How high can KMX stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $48 for KMX, while the most conservative target is $26. The consensus of $37.78 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $122 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover KMX stock?
KMX is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 35 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 1 have Strong Buy ratings, 9 have Buy ratings, 21 recommend Hold, and 4 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the KMX stock forecast?
The 12-month KMX stock forecast based on 35 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $37.78, with estimates ranging from $26 (bear case) to $48 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $35, with bear/bull scenarios of $26/$122.
What is KMX's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates KMX's fair value at $35 (base case), with a bear case of $26 and bull case of $122. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 58/100.
What is KMX's forward P/E ratio?
KMX trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14.6x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 12.3x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy KMX stock?
Analysts are cautious on KMX, with 4 Sell ratings and a price target of $37.78 (-4.2% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do KMX price targets vary so much?
KMX analyst price targets range from $26 to $48, a 58% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $37.78 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $26-$122 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.