LAD trades 19.4% above Wall Street's consensus target of $344.40.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes LAD achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 12.4x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 27 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $344.40, based on estimates from 27 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $427.48, this represents a potential downside of -19.4%. The company has a market capitalization of $9.75B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $300.00 to a high of $386.00, representing a 25% spread in expectations. The median target of $360.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 20 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,6 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, LAD trades at a trailing P/E of 13.2x and forward P/E of 12.4x. The forward PEG ratio of 1.17 indicates reasonable valuation for growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +13.3% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $457.98, with bear and bull scenarios of $288.53 and $603.43 respectively. Model confidence stands at 47/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ANAutoNation, Inc. | $7.7B | $229.98 | $234.67 | +2.0% | Buy | 10.6x | 34 |
 PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc. | $14.7B | $223.44 | $195.00 | -12.7% | Buy | 16.7x | 27 |
 SAHSonic Automotive, Inc. | $3.8B | $112.66 | $90.50 | -19.7% | Hold | 16.3x | 16 |
 ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc. | $4.6B | $248.26 | $230.00 | -7.4% | Hold | 9.7x | 19 |
 GPIGroup 1 Automotive, Inc. | $4.3B | $357.97 | $407.50 | +13.8% | Buy | 8.7x | 25 |
 RUSHARush Enterprises, Inc. | $6.3B | $81.62 | $82.00 | +0.5% | Hold | 22.2x | 17 |
 CVNACarvana Co. | $72.8B | $66.33 | $257.55 | +288.3% | Buy | 43.6x | 45 |
 KMXCarMax, Inc. | $8.4B | $59.11 | $51.78 | -12.4% | Hold | 21.9x | 36 |
 VRMVroom, Inc. | $36M | $6.99 | — | — | — | — | — |
 ACVAACV Auctions Inc. | $1.4B | $8.07 | $8.50 | +5.3% | Buy | 39.0x | 17 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying LAD stock.
LAD's consensus price target is $344.4, -19.4% below the current price of $427.48. The 27 analysts tracking LAD see downside risk at present valuations.
LAD has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 27 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 20 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $344.4 implies -19.4% downside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 12.4247x, LAD trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $344.4 implies -19.4% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $386 for LAD, while the most conservative target is $300. The consensus of $344.4 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $603 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
LAD is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 27 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 20 have Buy ratings, 6 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month LAD stock forecast based on 27 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $344.4, with estimates ranging from $300 (bear case) to $386 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $458, with bear/bull scenarios of $289/$603.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates LAD's fair value at $458 (base case), with a bear case of $289 and bull case of $603. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 47/100.
LAD trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12.4x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 13.2x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Analysts are cautious on LAD, with 1 Sell ratings and a price target of $344.4 (-19.4% from current price). The "Buy" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
LAD analyst price targets range from $300 to $386, a 25% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $344.4 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $289-$603 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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