Upside case
Bull case
$227+239.2%
KR would need investors to value it at roughly 43x earnings — about 31x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
The Kroger Co. (KR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
44
analysts
21 bullish · 6 bearish · 44 covering KR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
17
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$75
+11.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$70 – $227
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $42.4B
KR price targets
Three scenarios for where KR stock could go
Current
~$67
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $67
Bear
$70
Base
$152
Bull
$227
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$152+127.2%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$70+4.8%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push KR down roughly 5% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Kroger Co.
KR · NYSEConsumer DefensiveGrocery StoresJanuary year-end
Kroger is one of America's largest supermarket retailers operating grocery stores under various banners nationwide. It generates revenue primarily from grocery retail sales — including fresh produce, packaged goods, and pharmacy items — supplemented by fuel sales at its gas stations and private-label manufacturing. The company's scale advantage — with extensive distribution networks and private-label brands — creates cost efficiencies and customer loyalty in a competitive market.
Market Cap
$42.4B
Revenue TTM
$147.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.0B
Net Margin
0.7%
KR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.49/$1.45
Revenue
$45.1B/$45.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.04/$0.99
Revenue
$33.9B/$34.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.05/$1.03
Revenue
$33.9B/$34.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.28/$1.20
Revenue
$34.7B/$35.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.49/$1.45 | +2.8% | $45.1B/$45.2B | -0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.04/$0.99 | +4.6% | $33.9B/$34.1B | -0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.05/$1.03 | +1.9% | $33.9B/$34.2B | -1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.28/$1.20 | +6.7% | $34.7B/$35.0B | -0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$148.9B
+0.8% YoY
FY2
$150.6B
+1.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.40
+111.2% YoY
FY2
$3.50
+2.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.5B
FCF Margin: 2.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
KR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
KR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $52.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Perishable
69.8%
+1.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Perishable is the largest disclosed segment at 69.8% of FY 2024 revenue, up 1.8% YoY.
KR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $67 — implies -0.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KR
43.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+73% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
KR
43.5x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
+128% premium
vs KR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
43.5x
vs
5Y Average
21.6x
+101% premium
Forward PE
12.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-33%
Consumer Defensive
15.0x
-15%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
43.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
+73%
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
+128%
5Y Avg
21.6x
+101%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.87x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-28%
Consumer Defensive
11.5x
-5%
5Y Avg
8.2x
+34%
Price/FCF
12.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
-40%
Consumer Defensive
14.9x
-15%
5Y Avg
16.9x
-25%
Price/Sales
0.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-91%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
-65%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+14%
Dividend Yield
2.02%
S&P 500
1.87%
+8%
Consumer Defensive
2.79%
-28%
5Y Avg
2.08%
-3%
| Metric | KR | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg KR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.8x | 19.1x-33% | 15.0x-15% | — |
| Trailing PE | 43.5x | 25.1x+73% | 19.1x+128% | 21.6x+101% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.87x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.0x | 15.2x-28% | 11.5x | 8.2x+34% |
| Price/FCF | 12.6x | 21.1x-40% | 14.9x-15% | 16.9x-25% |
| Price/Sales | 0.3x | 3.1x-91% | 0.8x-65% | 0.3x+14% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.02% | 1.87% | 2.79% | 2.08% |
KR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKR Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
KR returns 8.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$147.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
22.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.61
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$21.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.0× FCF
~6.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (5.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.4%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
6.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.35
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
87.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
655M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageKR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Macro Economic Conditions
Fluctuations in inflation, interest rates, employment, and fuel costs can erode consumer confidence and discretionary spending, directly impacting Kroger’s sales and operating costs. Government benefit changes also influence consumer spending patterns.
High Risk
Competitive Landscape
Walmart’s heavy investment in digital and delivery, along with discount grocers and e‑commerce giants, intensifies price and service competition, threatening Kroger’s market share and pricing power.
Medium
E‑commerce Scaling Costs
Expanding online sales requires significant last‑mile delivery and omnichannel infrastructure, which can compress margins if not achieved profitably.
Medium
Margin Erosion Risk
Pressure on consumer incomes limits Kroger’s ability to pass through price increases, potentially eroding gross and EBIT margins.
Lower
Supply Chain Disruptions
Product safety issues, manufacturing process failures, and supply chain interruptions can delay product availability and increase costs.
Lower
Labor Market Pressures
Negotiations, potential work stoppages, and a tight labor market can disrupt operations and increase labor costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Alternative Profit Growth
Kroger’s alternative profit segment generated $1.5 billion in operating profit in 2025 and is projected to see double‑digit growth in 2026, driven by modernization efforts. This expansion is expected to lift overall profitability beyond traditional grocery margins.
Digital Sales Momentum
Digital sales grew 20% in Q4 2025, and Kroger anticipates a $400 million improvement in e‑commerce profit in 2026. The company’s focus on e‑commerce profitability and market share gains underpins a positive digital trajectory.
Private Label Expansion
Kroger is expanding premium private‑label offerings, such as the “Private Selection” brand, with new ready‑to‑eat and ready‑to‑cook meals. This strategy aims to attract value‑conscious shoppers with differentiated, higher‑quality products.
Operational Efficiency & Margin Improvement
Initiatives like closing fulfillment centers are expected to boost e‑commerce profitability. A favorable private‑label mix, reduced supply‑chain costs, and lower shrinkage have already contributed to gross margin growth.
Strong Financial & Shareholder Returns
Kroger’s quarterly EPS has exceeded analyst expectations, and it maintains a solid ROE of 41.08%. The company offers a 2.1% dividend yield and engages in share buybacks, with analysts projecting 10.5% EPS growth in FY 2027.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$66.92
52W Range Position
46%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$58.60
+14.2% from the low
52-Week High
$76.58
-12.6% from the high
1 Month
-8.37%
3 Month
+0.38%
YTD
+6.3%
1 Year
-8.2%
3Y CAGR
+10.8%
5Y CAGR
+12.9%
10Y CAGR
+6.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.8x
vs 14.1x median
-10% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.8%
vs +5.9% median
-86% below peer median
Net Margin
0.7%
vs 3.3% median
-79% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR KR The Kroger Co. | $42.4B | 12.8x | +0.8% | 0.7% | Buy | +11.7% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $1.04T | 44.9x | +5.9% | 3.3% | Buy | +4.8% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $58.7B | 16.1x | +0.1% | 3.8% | Hold | -10.5% |
ACI ACI Albertsons Companies, Inc. | $8.3B | 7.1x | +2.2% | 1.1% | Buy | +21.7% |
SFM SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | $7.4B | 14.1x | +10.2% | 5.7% | Buy | +15.6% |
WMK WMK Weis Markets, Inc. | $1.7B | 8.8x | +41.3% | 1.9% | — | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
KR Dividend and Capital Return
KR returns capital mainly through $2.7B/year in buybacks (6.4% buyback yield), with a modest 2.02% dividend — combining for 8.4% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 21 consecutive years.
Dividend At RiskFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
8.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.4%
Dividend Yield
2.02%
Payout Ratio
87.1%
How KR Splits Its Return
Div 2.02%
Buyback 6.4%
Dividend 2.02%Buybacks 6.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.35
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
21Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.5%
5Y Div CAGR
14.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
40M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
655M
At 6.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.34 | +9.8% | 6.6% | 8.7% |
| 2024 | $1.22 | +10.9% | 11.6% | 13.6% |
| 2023 | $1.10 | +17.0% | 0.2% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $0.94 | +20.5% | 3.0% | 5.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsKR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Kroger Co. (KR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Kroger Co. (KR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $75, implying +11.7% from the current price of $67. The bear case scenario is $70 and the bull case is $227.
02What is the KR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KR is $75 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $83 (+24.0% from today), and the low-end target is $68 (+1.6%). The base case model target is $152.
03Is The Kroger Co. (KR) stock overvalued in 2026?
KR trades at 12.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Kroger Co. (KR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KR in 2026 are: (1) Macro Economic Conditions — Fluctuations in inflation, interest rates, employment, and fuel costs can erode consumer confidence and discretionary spending, directly impacting Kroger’s sales and operating costs. (2) Competitive Landscape — Walmart’s heavy investment in digital and delivery, along with discount grocers and e‑commerce giants, intensifies price and service competition, threatening Kroger’s market share and pricing power. (3) E‑commerce Scaling Costs — Expanding online sales requires significant last‑mile delivery and omnichannel infrastructure, which can compress margins if not achieved profitably. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Kroger Co.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KR will report consensus revenue of $148.9B (+0.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.40 (+111.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $150.6B in revenue.
06When does The Kroger Co. (KR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for KR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The Kroger Co. generate?
The Kroger Co. (KR) generated $3.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.4%. KR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($2.7B TTM).