Upside case
Bull case
$201+254.6%
KR would need investors to value it at roughly 38x earnings — about 28x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
The Kroger Co. (KR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
44
analysts
21 bullish · 6 bearish · 44 covering KR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
17
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$74
+31.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$96 – $201
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $34.9B
KR price targets
Three scenarios for where KR stock could go
Current
~$57
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $57
Bear
$96
Base
$152
Bull
$201
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$152+169.1%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$96+69.5%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push KR down roughly 70% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Kroger Co.
KR · NYSEConsumer DefensiveGrocery StoresJanuary year-end
Kroger is one of America's largest supermarket retailers operating grocery stores under various banners nationwide. It generates revenue primarily from grocery retail sales — including fresh produce, packaged goods, and pharmacy items — supplemented by fuel sales at its gas stations and private-label manufacturing. The company's scale advantage — with extensive distribution networks and private-label brands — creates cost efficiencies and customer loyalty in a competitive market.
Market Cap
$34.9B
Revenue TTM
$147.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.0B
Net Margin
0.7%
KR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.49/$1.45
Revenue
$45.1B/$45.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.04/$0.99
Revenue
$33.9B/$34.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.05/$1.03
Revenue
$33.9B/$34.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.28/$1.20
Revenue
$34.7B/$35.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.49/$1.45 | +2.8% | $45.1B/$45.2B | -0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.04/$0.99 | +4.6% | $33.9B/$34.1B | -0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.05/$1.03 | +1.9% | $33.9B/$34.2B | -1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.28/$1.20 | +6.7% | $34.7B/$35.0B | -0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$150.4B
+1.9% YoY
FY2
$153.7B
+2.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.22
+100.1% YoY
FY2
$3.63
+12.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.5B
FCF Margin: 2.4%
Next Earnings
June 18, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.58
Expected Revenue
$45.3B
KR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
KR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $52.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Perishable
69.8%
+1.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Perishable is the largest disclosed segment at 69.8% of FY 2024 revenue, up 1.8% YoY.
KR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $54 — implies -4.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
4.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KR
36.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+50% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
KR
36.8x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+94% premium
vs KR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
36.8x
vs
5Y Average
21.6x
+70% premium
Forward PE
10.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-43%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
-24%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
36.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+50%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+94%
5Y Avg
21.6x
+70%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-36%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
-13%
5Y Avg
8.2x
+18%
Price/FCF
10.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
-50%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
-32%
5Y Avg
16.9x
-38%
Price/Sales
0.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-92%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
-73%
5Y Avg
0.3x
-6%
Dividend Yield
2.39%
S&P 500
1.91%
+25%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
-22%
5Y Avg
2.08%
+15%
| Metric | KR | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg KR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.8x | 18.8x-43% | 14.2x-24% | — |
| Trailing PE | 36.8x | 24.4x+50% | 18.9x+94% | 21.6x+70% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.7x | 15.2x-36% | 11.1x-13% | 8.2x+18% |
| Price/FCF | 10.4x | 20.7x-50% | 15.3x-32% | 16.9x-38% |
| Price/Sales | 0.2x | 3.1x-92% | 0.9x-73% | 0.3x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.39% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 2.08% |
KR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKR Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
KR returns 10.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$147.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
23.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.61
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$21.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.0× FCF
~6.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (5.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
10.1%
Dividend
2.4%
Buyback
7.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.35
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
87.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
617M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageKR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Failed Merger Impact
The collapse of the $24.6 billion merger with Albertsons Companies has forced Kroger to pivot its strategy, potentially limiting growth opportunities and synergies.
Medium
Low Sales Growth
Kroger's 2026 guidance projects modest identical sales growth (1.0% to 2.0%), indicating potential challenges in driving top-line expansion amid competitive pressures.
Medium
Margin Pressure
Investments in customer value and operational improvements may pressure margins, as reflected in the adjusted FIFO operating profit guidance of $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion.
Lower
Narrow Moat
Kroger's narrow moat suggests limited competitive advantages, making it vulnerable to intense competition from other grocery retailers and e-commerce players.
Medium
Strategic Uncertainty
The company's pivot post-merger failure introduces uncertainty around its long-term strategic direction and ability to adapt to evolving retail trends.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Digital and Convenience Expansion
Kroger's investment in digital platforms, including online ordering, delivery, and pickup options, enhances customer convenience and drives sales growth.
Private Label Innovation
The expansion of Kroger's Private Selection brand with premium ready-to-eat and ready-to-cook meals strengthens its product portfolio and attracts higher-margin sales.
Cost Leadership and Value
Kroger's ability to offer fresh groceries at low prices, combined with digital coupons and weekly deals, positions it as a cost leader in the grocery sector.
Strong Institutional Ownership
With Vanguard Group as the top holder (12.6%), Kroger benefits from stable institutional support, signaling confidence in its long-term growth.
Omnichannel Strategy
Kroger's seamless integration of in-store, pickup, and delivery options caters to diverse customer preferences, driving loyalty and market share gains.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$56.61
52W Range Position
1%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$56.32
+0.5% from the low
52-Week High
$76.58
-26.1% from the high
1 Month
-17.14%
3 Month
-22.75%
YTD
-10.1%
1 Year
-13.6%
3Y CAGR
+7.3%
5Y CAGR
+7.9%
10Y CAGR
+5.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.8x
vs 14.4x median
-25% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.9%
vs +3.9% median
-52% below peer median
Net Margin
0.7%
vs 3.2% median
-78% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR KR The Kroger Co. | $34.9B | 10.8x | +1.9% | 0.7% | Buy | +31.2% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $934.0B | 40.3x | +5.0% | 3.2% | Buy | +19.0% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $59.4B | 15.6x | +2.5% | 3.4% | Hold | +0.4% |
ACI ACI Albertsons Companies, Inc. | $6.9B | 5.9x | +3.9% | 1.1% | Buy | +45.4% |
SFM SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | $7.6B | 14.4x | +7.7% | 5.7% | Buy | +13.1% |
WMK WMK Weis Markets, Inc. | $1.9B | 9.7x | +3.4% | 2.0% | — | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
KR Dividend and Capital Return
KR returns capital mainly through $2.7B/year in buybacks (7.7% buyback yield), with a modest 2.39% dividend — combining for 10.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 19 consecutive years.
Dividend At RiskFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
10.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
7.7%
Dividend Yield
2.39%
Payout Ratio
87.1%
How KR Splits Its Return
Div 2.39%
Buyback 7.7%
Dividend 2.39%Buybacks 7.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.35
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
19Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.5%
5Y Div CAGR
14.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
48M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
617M
At 7.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.34 | +9.8% | 6.6% | 8.7% |
| 2024 | $1.22 | +10.9% | 11.6% | 13.6% |
| 2023 | $1.10 | +17.0% | 0.2% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $0.94 | +20.5% | 3.0% | 5.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsKR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Kroger Co. (KR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Kroger Co. (KR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $74, implying +31.2% from the current price of $57. The bear case scenario is $96 and the bull case is $201.
02What is the KR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KR is $74 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $83 (+46.6% from today), and the low-end target is $68 (+20.1%). The base case model target is $152.
03Is The Kroger Co. (KR) stock overvalued in 2026?
KR trades at 10.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Kroger Co. (KR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KR in 2026 are: (1) Failed Merger Impact — The collapse of the $24. (2) Low Sales Growth — Kroger's 2026 guidance projects modest identical sales growth (1. (3) Margin Pressure — Investments in customer value and operational improvements may pressure margins, as reflected in the adjusted FIFO operating profit guidance of $5. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Kroger Co.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KR will report consensus revenue of $150.4B (+1.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.22 (+100.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $153.7B in revenue.
06When does The Kroger Co. (KR) report its next earnings?
The Kroger Co. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-06-18. Consensus expects EPS of $1.58 and revenue of $45.3B. Over recent quarters, KR has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does The Kroger Co. generate?
The Kroger Co. (KR) generated $3.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.4%. KR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.4% yield) and share repurchases ($2.7B TTM).