Upside case
Bull case
$268+108.4%
TGT would need investors to value it at roughly 34x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Target Corporation (TGT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
59
analysts
27 bullish · 4 bearish · 59 covering TGT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
27
Hold
28
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$115
-10.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$87 – $268
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
59
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $58.7B
TGT price targets
Three scenarios for where TGT stock could go
Current
~$129
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $129
Bear
$87
Base
$137
Bull
$268
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$137+6.2%
This is close to how the market is already pricing TGT — at roughly 17x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$87-32.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push TGT down roughly 33% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Target Corporation
TGT · NYSEConsumer DefensiveDiscount StoresJanuary year-end
Target is a large-format general merchandise retailer offering a curated assortment of essentials, apparel, home goods, and groceries at value prices. It generates revenue primarily through in-store sales (~95%) and digital channels (~5%), with additional income from credit card partnerships and in-store services like pharmacies and food courts. The company's competitive advantage lies in its "cheap chic" brand positioning—offering stylish private-label goods at affordable prices—and its efficient omnichannel fulfillment network that integrates stores as local distribution hubs.
Market Cap
$58.7B
Revenue TTM
$106.2B
Net Income TTM
$4.0B
Net Margin
3.8%
TGT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.30/$1.56
Revenue
$23.8B/$24.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.05/$2.04
Revenue
$25.2B/$24.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.78/$1.71
Revenue
$25.3B/$25.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.44/$2.16
Revenue
$30.5B/$30.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.30/$1.56 | -16.7% | $23.8B/$24.1B | -1.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.05/$2.04 | +0.5% | $25.2B/$24.9B | +1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.78/$1.71 | +4.1% | $25.3B/$25.3B | -0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.44/$2.16 | +13.0% | $30.5B/$30.5B | -0.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$106.3B
+0.1% YoY
FY2
$107.2B
+0.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.29
-5.1% YoY
FY2
$8.64
+4.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.9B
FCF Margin: 2.8%
Next Earnings
May 20, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.34
Expected Revenue
$24.4B
TGT beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TGT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $106.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Food and Beverage
22.4%
-0.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Food and Beverage is the largest disclosed segment at 22.4% of FY 2024 revenue, down 0.3% YoY.
TGT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $158 — implies +22.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
22.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TGT
15.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
37% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
TGT
15.8x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
17% discount
vs TGT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.8x
vs
5Y Average
17.7x
10% discount
Forward PE
16.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-16%
Consumer Defensive
15.0x
+7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
-37%
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
-17%
5Y Avg
17.7x
-10%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.87x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-51%
Consumer Defensive
11.5x
-35%
5Y Avg
10.0x
-25%
Price/FCF
20.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
-2%
Consumer Defensive
14.9x
+38%
5Y Avg
17.5x
+18%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-82%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
-32%
5Y Avg
0.7x
-18%
Dividend Yield
3.50%
S&P 500
1.87%
+87%
Consumer Defensive
2.79%
+25%
5Y Avg
2.85%
+23%
| Metric | TGT | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg TGT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.1x | 19.1x-16% | 15.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.8x | 25.1x-37% | 19.1x-17% | 17.7x-10% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.87x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4x | 15.2x-51% | 11.5x-35% | 10.0x-25% |
| Price/FCF | 20.7x | 21.1x | 14.9x+38% | 17.5x+18% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-82% | 0.8x-32% | 0.7x-18% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.50% | 1.87% | 2.79% | 2.85% |
TGT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTGT Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
TGT 16.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 4.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$106.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.73
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$104M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.0× FCF
~0.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
26.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.2%
Dividend
3.5%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$408M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.51
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
55.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
456M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTGT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic & Consumer Spending
Target's sales and margins are highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and consumer confidence. A slowdown in discretionary spending can reduce sales volumes and compress profit margins, while rising inflation further erodes purchasing power.
High Risk
Cybersecurity & Data Breaches
Target handles large volumes of customer data, exposing it to cyber risks. A breach could damage consumer trust, trigger regulatory fines, and incur significant remediation costs.
Medium
Retail Competition Pressure
Target competes with Walmart and Amazon, requiring differentiation through price, merchandise, store experience, and digital offerings. Failure to maintain a competitive edge could negatively impact sales and profitability.
Medium
Supply Chain & Inventory Risks
Challenges in anticipating consumer preferences, inventory execution, and managing costs can affect gross margins. Shrink and organized retail crime, along with the complexity of multiple fulfillment options, add operational risk.
Medium
Interest Rates & Debt Exposure
Fluctuations in interest rates and potential market disruptions can affect funding costs. Target's debt-to-equity ratio may become a concern if market conditions worsen.
Medium
Reputation & ESG Risks
Negative perceptions around product safety, sourcing practices, or ESG matters can harm brand reputation and financial performance. Past controversies, such as DEI program backlash, have already impacted brand perception.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TGT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Digital Momentum & Omnichannel Growth
Target’s digital sales now account for over 20% of its total merchandise sales, a clear shift toward online channels. Same‑day delivery services, powered by the Target Circle 360 loyalty program, are experiencing significant growth, enabling the retailer to compete with Amazon and Walmart.
Owned Brand Advantage
Target’s diverse product mix includes a portfolio of popular owned brands that cater to a broad demographic. These private labels provide a competitive edge and contribute to higher profitability margins.
Cost‑Saving & Operational Efficiency
The company is targeting billions of dollars in cost‑saving initiatives over the next few years, aimed at improving margins. Investments in store upgrades, supply‑chain technology, and operational speed are expected to drive efficiency gains.
Financial Resilience & Shareholder Returns
Target maintains robust liquidity and a solid balance sheet, with disciplined debt management. The firm offers a consistent dividend yield and has a history of meaningful share buybacks that can boost earnings per share.
Strategic AI & Automation Investments
Target is investing in AI, automation, and its store network to support sales growth and improve margins. Its long‑term growth framework anticipates adding billions to its top line by 2030.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TGT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$128.78
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$83.44
+54.3% from the low
52-Week High
$133.07
-3.2% from the high
1 Month
+5.37%
3 Month
+16.17%
YTD
+28.1%
1 Year
+37.0%
3Y CAGR
-6.3%
5Y CAGR
-9.5%
10Y CAGR
+5.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TGT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.1x
vs 16.1x median
-0% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.1%
vs +5.7% median
-99% below peer median
Net Margin
3.8%
vs 3.3% median
+17% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $58.7B | 16.1x | +0.1% | 3.8% | Hold | -10.5% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $1.04T | 44.9x | +5.9% | 3.3% | Buy | +4.8% |
COS COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | $450.5B | 49.7x | +5.7% | 3.0% | Buy | +5.3% |
KR KR The Kroger Co. | $42.4B | 12.8x | +0.8% | 0.7% | Buy | +11.7% |
DG DG Dollar General Corporation | $25.7B | 16.1x | +4.3% | 3.5% | Buy | +23.9% |
DLT DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | $18.6B | 13.9x | +6.4% | 6.6% | Buy | +37.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TGT Dividend and Capital Return
TGT returns 4.2% total yield, led by a 3.50% dividend, raised 42 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
3.50%
Payout Ratio
55.4%
How TGT Splits Its Return
Div 3.50%
Dividend 3.50%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.51
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
42Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.5%
5Y Div CAGR
11.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$408M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
456M
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.28 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.52 | +1.8% | 0.8% | 5.1% |
| 2024 | $4.44 | +1.8% | 1.6% | 4.8% |
| 2023 | $4.36 | +10.1% | 0.2% | 3.2% |
| 2022 | $3.96 | +25.3% | 3.4% | 5.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsTGT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Target Corporation (TGT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Target Corporation (TGT) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 59 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 28 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $115, implying -10.5% from the current price of $129. The bear case scenario is $87 and the bull case is $268.
02What is the TGT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TGT is $115 based on 59 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $145 (+12.6% from today), and the low-end target is $81 (-37.1%). The base case model target is $137.
03Is Target Corporation (TGT) stock overvalued in 2026?
TGT trades at 16.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Target Corporation (TGT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TGT in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic & Consumer Spending — Target's sales and margins are highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and consumer confidence. (2) Cybersecurity & Data Breaches — Target handles large volumes of customer data, exposing it to cyber risks. (3) Retail Competition Pressure — Target competes with Walmart and Amazon, requiring differentiation through price, merchandise, store experience, and digital offerings. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Target Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TGT will report consensus revenue of $106.3B (+0.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.29 (-5.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $107.2B in revenue.
06When does Target Corporation (TGT) report its next earnings?
Target Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-20. Consensus expects EPS of $1.34 and revenue of $24.4B. Over recent quarters, TGT has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Target Corporation generate?
Target Corporation (TGT) generated $2.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.8%. TGT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.5% yield) and share repurchases ($408M TTM).