Upside case
Bull case
$159+21.5%
WMT would need investors to value it at roughly 55x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 45x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
64
analysts
46 bullish · 4 bearish · 64 covering WMT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
46
Hold
14
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$137
+4.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$80 – $159
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
64
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
44.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $1.04T
WMT price targets
Three scenarios for where WMT stock could go
Current
~$131
Confidence
86 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $131
Bear
$80
Base
$156
Bull
$159
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$156+18.9%
At 53x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$80-39.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 18x multiple contraction could push WMT down roughly 39% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Walmart Inc.
WMT · NYSEConsumer DefensiveDiscount StoresJanuary year-end
Walmart is the world's largest retailer operating a vast network of physical stores and e-commerce platforms. It generates revenue primarily through retail sales — with Walmart U.S. contributing about 65% of total revenue, Walmart International around 20%, and Sam's Club membership warehouse clubs roughly 15%. Its key competitive advantage is massive scale and supply chain efficiency, enabling everyday low prices that competitors struggle to match.
Market Cap
$1.04T
Revenue TTM
$703.1B
Net Income TTM
$22.9B
Net Margin
3.3%
WMT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.61/$0.57
Revenue
$165.6B/$165.6B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.68/$0.73
Revenue
$177.4B/$175.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.62/$0.60
Revenue
$179.5B/$177.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.74/$0.73
Revenue
$190.7B/$190.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.61/$0.57 | +6.1% | $165.6B/$165.6B | -0.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.68/$0.73 | -7.2% | $177.4B/$175.9B | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.62/$0.60 | +3.2% | $179.5B/$177.4B | +1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.74/$0.73 | +1.8% | $190.7B/$190.5B | +0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$744.8B
+5.9% YoY
FY2
$779.2B
+4.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.95
+3.3% YoY
FY2
$3.25
+9.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$15.3B
FCF Margin: 2.2%
Next Earnings
May 21, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.65
Expected Revenue
$174.5B
WMT beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
WMT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $674.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Walmart U S
68.6%
+4.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States
81.9%
+4.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Walmart U S is the largest disclosed segment at 68.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.7% YoY.
United States is the largest reported region at 81.9%, up 4.8% YoY.
WMT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $82 — implies -37.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
37.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WMT
47.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+91% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
WMT
47.9x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
+151% premium
vs WMT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
47.9x
vs
5Y Average
35.1x
+36% premium
Forward PE
44.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+135%
Consumer Defensive
15.0x
+200%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
47.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
+91%
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
+151%
5Y Avg
35.1x
+36%
PEG Ratio
4.35x
S&P 500
1.72x
+154%
Consumer Defensive
1.87x
+133%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
25.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+64%
Consumer Defensive
11.5x
+117%
5Y Avg
16.4x
+53%
Price/FCF
25.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
+19%
Consumer Defensive
14.9x
+68%
5Y Avg
36.7x
-32%
Price/Sales
1.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-53%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+77%
5Y Avg
0.9x
+62%
Dividend Yield
0.72%
S&P 500
1.87%
-62%
Consumer Defensive
2.79%
-74%
5Y Avg
1.23%
-42%
| Metric | WMT | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg WMT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 44.9x | 19.1x+135% | 15.0x+200% | — |
| Trailing PE | 47.9x | 25.1x+91% | 19.1x+151% | 35.1x+36% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.35x | 1.72x+154% | 1.87x+133% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.0x | 15.2x+64% | 11.5x+117% | 16.4x+53% |
| Price/FCF | 25.1x | 21.1x+19% | 14.9x+68% | 36.7x-32% |
| Price/Sales | 1.5x | 3.1x-53% | 0.8x+77% | 0.9x+62% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.72% | 1.87% | 2.79% | 1.23% |
WMT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWMT Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
WMT 14.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 1.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$703.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
24.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.86
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$15.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$56.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.7× FCF
~3.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.5%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$8.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.94
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
34.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
8.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageWMT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Low-Margin Model
Walmart’s strategy of selling at low prices leaves little room for error when costs rise. Even modest increases in commodity or labor costs can squeeze profit margins, potentially eroding earnings.
High Risk
Intense Competition
Walmart faces fierce competition from e-commerce giants like Amazon, as well as large retailers such as Target and Costco, and numerous local businesses. Aggressive pricing and innovation by competitors threaten Walmart’s market share and could pressure sales volumes.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Walmart’s global supply chain is vulnerable to weather events, geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, pandemics, and supplier issues. Disruptions can lead to stockouts, higher procurement costs, and operational inefficiencies.
Medium
Labor Costs & Relations
Rising wage inflation, benefit costs, and potential unionization efforts increase operational expenses. Automation investments also carry execution risks that could affect service levels and cost structure.
Medium
Technology Failures & Cybersecurity
Walmart relies heavily on technology for operations, making it susceptible to system failures, software glitches, cyberattacks, and data breaches. Such incidents can result in lost sales, legal liabilities, and reputational damage.
Medium
Currency Fluctuations
International operations expose Walmart to foreign currency volatility, which can raise the cost of goods sold and negatively impact profit margins. While hedging strategies exist, significant swings can still erode earnings.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WMT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High-Margin Platform Expansion
Walmart is pivoting from a low‑margin retailer to a platform business, growing Walmart Connect advertising to $3.4 billion in FY24 and targeting continued strong growth. Acquisitions such as VIZIO are intended to accelerate advertising revenue further.
AI‑Driven Automation & Efficiency
The company plans to automate 55% of its U.S. fulfillment volume by 2026, leveraging AI to cut costs and speed delivery. Initiatives include a customer‑facing shopping agent and computer‑vision checkout systems.
Store of the Future & E‑commerce Growth
Walmart will build or convert over 150 stores and remodel about 1,400 locations in the next five years, focusing on “Store of the Future” formats. E‑commerce sales exceeded $100 billion in FY24, with a goal of half of total revenue by decade’s end and 93% U.S. coverage under three hours.
Attracting Affluent Consumers
The retailer is successfully drawing higher‑income households without alienating its core base, expanding its addressable market and driving higher average spend per customer.
Robust Financial Performance
Q4 2024 total revenue reached $180.6 billion, up 4.1% year‑over‑year, while operating income rose 30%. Full‑year FY24 revenue topped $648 billion, a 5.1% increase.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WMT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$130.79
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$91.89
+42.3% from the low
52-Week High
$134.69
-2.9% from the high
1 Month
+3.15%
3 Month
+3.03%
YTD
+16.0%
1 Year
+31.7%
3Y CAGR
+37.2%
5Y CAGR
+22.8%
10Y CAGR
+19.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WMT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
44.9x
vs 16.1x median
+179% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.9%
vs +5.3% median
+12% above peer median
Net Margin
3.3%
vs 3.0% median
+9% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $1.04T | 44.9x | +5.9% | 3.3% | Buy | +4.8% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $58.7B | 16.1x | +0.1% | 3.8% | Hold | -10.5% |
COS COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | $450.5B | 49.7x | +5.7% | 3.0% | Buy | +5.3% |
KR KR The Kroger Co. | $42.4B | 12.8x | +0.8% | 0.7% | Buy | +11.7% |
BJ BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | $14.1B | 20.9x | +5.3% | 2.7% | Hold | +11.0% |
SFM SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | $7.4B | 14.1x | +10.2% | 5.7% | Buy | +15.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WMT Dividend and Capital Return
WMT returns 1.5% annually — 0.72% through dividends and 0.8% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
0.72%
Payout Ratio
34.3%
How WMT Splits Its Return
Div 0.72%
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 0.72%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.94
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
43Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.0%
5Y Div CAGR
5.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
7 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$8.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
62M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
8.0B
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.99 | — | 0.8% | 1.6% |
| 2025 | $0.94 | +13.3% | 0.6% | 1.4% |
| 2024 | $0.83 | +9.2% | 0.6% | 2.0% |
| 2023 | $0.76 | +1.8% | 2.5% | 4.1% |
| 2022 | $0.75 | +1.8% | 2.5% | 4.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsWMT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Walmart Inc. (WMT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Walmart Inc. (WMT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 64 analysts covering the stock, 46 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $137, implying +4.8% from the current price of $131. The bear case scenario is $80 and the bull case is $159.
02What is the WMT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WMT is $137 based on 64 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $150 (+14.7% from today), and the low-end target is $120 (-8.2%). The base case model target is $156.
03Is Walmart Inc. (WMT) stock overvalued in 2026?
WMT trades at 44.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Walmart Inc. (WMT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WMT in 2026 are: (1) Low-Margin Model — Walmart’s strategy of selling at low prices leaves little room for error when costs rise. (2) Intense Competition — Walmart faces fierce competition from e-commerce giants like Amazon, as well as large retailers such as Target and Costco, and numerous local businesses. (3) Supply Chain Disruptions — Walmart’s global supply chain is vulnerable to weather events, geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, pandemics, and supplier issues. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Walmart Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WMT will report consensus revenue of $744.8B (+5.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.95 (+3.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $779.2B in revenue.
06When does Walmart Inc. (WMT) report its next earnings?
Walmart Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-21. Consensus expects EPS of $0.65 and revenue of $174.5B. Over recent quarters, WMT has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Walmart Inc. generate?
Walmart Inc. (WMT) generated $15.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.2%. WMT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($8.1B TTM).