Upside case
Bull case
$173+48.1%
WMT would need investors to value it at roughly 60x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 40x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
66
analysts
48 bullish · 3 bearish · 66 covering WMT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
48
Hold
15
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$139
+19.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$83 – $173
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
66
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
40.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $934.0B
WMT price targets
Three scenarios for where WMT stock could go
Current
~$117
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $117
Bear
$83
Base
$132
Bull
$173
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$132+12.4%
At 45x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$83-29.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 12x multiple contraction could push WMT down roughly 29% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Walmart Inc.
WMT · NYSEConsumer DefensiveDiscount StoresJanuary year-end
Walmart is the world's largest retailer operating a vast network of physical stores and e-commerce platforms. It generates revenue primarily through retail sales — with Walmart U.S. contributing about 65% of total revenue, Walmart International around 20%, and Sam's Club membership warehouse clubs roughly 15%. Its key competitive advantage is massive scale and supply chain efficiency, enabling everyday low prices that competitors struggle to match.
Market Cap
$934.0B
Revenue TTM
$725.3B
Net Income TTM
$23.1B
Net Margin
3.2%
WMT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.68/$0.73
Revenue
$177.4B/$175.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.62/$0.60
Revenue
$179.5B/$177.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.74/$0.73
Revenue
$190.7B/$190.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.66/$0.66
Revenue
$177.8B/$174.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.68/$0.73 | -7.2% | $177.4B/$175.9B | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.62/$0.60 | +3.2% | $179.5B/$177.4B | +1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.74/$0.73 | +1.8% | $190.7B/$190.5B | +0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.66/$0.66 | +0.2% | $177.8B/$174.8B | +1.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$761.8B
+5.0% YoY
FY2
$797.7B
+4.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.89
+0.4% YoY
FY2
$3.07
+6.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$12.6B
FCF Margin: 1.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
WMT beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
WMT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $706.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Walmart U S
68.4%
+4.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
81.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Walmart U S is the largest disclosed segment at 68.4% of FY 2026 revenue, up 4.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 81.5%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
WMT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $49 — implies -58.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
58.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WMT
42.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+76% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
WMT
42.9x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+127% premium
vs WMT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
42.9x
vs
5Y Average
35.1x
+22% premium
Forward PE
40.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
+114%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+184%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
42.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
+76%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+127%
5Y Avg
35.1x
+22%
PEG Ratio
3.90x
S&P 500
1.66x
+135%
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
+103%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+48%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+103%
5Y Avg
16.4x
+38%
Price/FCF
62.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+202%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+309%
5Y Avg
44.9x
+39%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-58%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+49%
5Y Avg
0.9x
+45%
Dividend Yield
0.80%
S&P 500
1.91%
-58%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
-74%
5Y Avg
1.23%
-35%
| Metric | WMT | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg WMT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 40.3x | 18.8x+114% | 14.2x+184% | — |
| Trailing PE | 42.9x | 24.4x+76% | 18.9x+127% | 35.1x+22% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.90x | 1.66x+135% | 1.92x+103% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.5x | 15.2x+48% | 11.1x+103% | 16.4x+38% |
| Price/FCF | 62.6x | 20.7x+202% | 15.3x+309% | 44.9x+39% |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-58% | 0.9x+49% | 0.9x+45% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.80% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 1.23% |
WMT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWMT Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
WMT 14.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 1.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$725.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
25.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.88
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$12.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$56.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.5× FCF
~4.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.7%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
0.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$8.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.94
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
34.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
8.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageWMT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Valuation risks
CoinCodex notes valuation risks that warrant caution, and A.L. Capital Advisory's DCF model shows a negative margin of safety at current prices.
High Risk
Geopolitical risk
Sovereign and geopolitical risks are highlighted as Walmart's 'kryptonite,' posing significant threats in volatile macro environments.
Medium
Market volatility
Walmart's stock forecast indicates potential future volatility across bull, base, and bear scenarios, reflecting uncertainty in price movements.
Lower
Share buyback risks
Aggressive share repurchases ($8.1B in fiscal 2026) could strain cash reserves or limit flexibility in adverse conditions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WMT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Margin expansion via digital shift
Walmart's bull case is anchored on margin expansion driven by a higher-margin digital revenue mix, including e-commerce and advertising.
Advertising revenue growth
Advertising revenue growth above 30% reinforces the structural thesis and supports Walmart's premium valuation.
Shareholder returns boost
Walmart's $30 billion share repurchase authorization and 5% dividend increase enhance shareholder returns.
Higher-margin business expansion
Ongoing expansion in higher-margin segments like e-commerce, advertising, and membership businesses drives profitability.
Walmart+ membership growth
The Walmart+ membership program, offering free delivery and shipping, supports recurring revenue and customer loyalty.
Business mix shift compounding
The shift toward advertising and membership, now 33% of operating income, creates a compounding floor under operating income growth.
Wide economic moat
Walmart's wide moat, supported by scale and institutional ownership, underpins its competitive advantage.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WMT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$117.18
52W Range Position
56%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$94.09
+24.5% from the low
52-Week High
$135.16
-13.3% from the high
1 Month
-12.12%
3 Month
-3.94%
YTD
+3.9%
1 Year
+23.2%
3Y CAGR
+31.6%
5Y CAGR
+21.1%
10Y CAGR
+17.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WMT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
40.3x
vs 15.6x median
+159% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.0%
vs +5.8% median
-13% below peer median
Net Margin
3.2%
vs 3.0% median
+6% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $934.0B | 40.3x | +5.0% | 3.2% | Buy | +19.0% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $59.4B | 15.6x | +2.5% | 3.4% | Hold | +0.4% |
COS COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | $421.9B | 46.4x | +5.8% | 3.0% | Buy | +16.7% |
KR KR The Kroger Co. | $34.9B | 10.8x | +1.9% | 0.7% | Buy | +31.2% |
BJ BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | $10.9B | 18.9x | +6.2% | 2.6% | Hold | +30.8% |
SFM SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | $7.6B | 14.4x | +7.7% | 5.7% | Buy | +13.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WMT Dividend and Capital Return
WMT returns 1.7% annually — 0.80% through dividends and 0.9% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
1.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.9%
Dividend Yield
0.80%
Payout Ratio
34.3%
How WMT Splits Its Return
Div 0.80%
Buyback 0.9%
Dividend 0.80%Buybacks 0.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.94
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
52Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.0%
5Y Div CAGR
5.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
6 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$8.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
69M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
8.0B
At 0.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.99 | — | 0.8% | 1.6% |
| 2025 | $0.94 | +13.3% | 0.6% | 1.4% |
| 2024 | $0.83 | +9.2% | 0.6% | 2.0% |
| 2023 | $0.76 | +1.8% | 2.5% | 4.1% |
| 2022 | $0.75 | +1.8% | 2.5% | 4.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsWMT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Walmart Inc. (WMT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Walmart Inc. (WMT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 66 analysts covering the stock, 48 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $139, implying +19.0% from the current price of $117. The bear case scenario is $83 and the bull case is $173.
02What is the WMT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WMT is $139 based on 66 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $155 (+32.3% from today), and the low-end target is $120 (+2.4%). The base case model target is $132.
03Is Walmart Inc. (WMT) stock overvalued in 2026?
WMT trades at 40.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Walmart Inc. (WMT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WMT in 2026 are: (1) Geopolitical risk — Sovereign and geopolitical risks are highlighted as Walmart's 'kryptonite,' posing significant threats in volatile macro environments. (2) Valuation risks — CoinCodex notes valuation risks that warrant caution, and A. (3) Market volatility — Walmart's stock forecast indicates potential future volatility across bull, base, and bear scenarios, reflecting uncertainty in price movements. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Walmart Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WMT will report consensus revenue of $761.8B (+5.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.89 (+0.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $797.7B in revenue.
06When does Walmart Inc. (WMT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for WMT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Walmart Inc. generate?
Walmart Inc. (WMT) generated $12.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.7%. WMT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($8.1B TTM).