Upside case
Bull case
$535+53.6%
KRYS would need investors to value it at roughly 69x earnings — about 24x more generous than today's 45x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Krystal Biotech, Inc. (KRYS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
17
analysts
17 bullish · 0 bearish · 17 covering KRYS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$336
-3.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$256 – $535
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
17
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
44.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.3B
KRYS price targets
Three scenarios for where KRYS stock could go
Current
~$348
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $348
Bear
$256
Base
$406
Bull
$535
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$406+16.6%
At 52x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$256-26.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 12x multiple contraction could push KRYS down roughly 27% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Krystal Biotech, Inc.
KRYS · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Krystal Biotech is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing redosable gene therapies for rare skin diseases. It generates revenue primarily through its commercial product B-VEC for dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa, with future revenue expected from its pipeline targeting other genetic skin conditions. The company's key advantage is its proprietary STAR-D platform that enables repeat dosing of gene therapies — a significant technical breakthrough in a field where most gene therapies can only be administered once.
Market Cap
$10.3B
Revenue TTM
$417M
Net Income TTM
$225M
Net Margin
53.9%
KRYS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
45%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+17.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.29/$1.08
Revenue
$96M/$95M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.66/$1.12
Revenue
$98M/$105M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.70/$1.62
Revenue
$107M/$105M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.83/$1.45
Revenue
$116M/$112M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.29/$1.08 | +19.4% | $96M/$95M | +0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.66/$1.12 | +137.5% | $98M/$105M | -7.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.70/$1.62 | +4.9% | $107M/$105M | +1.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.83/$1.45 | +26.2% | $116M/$112M | +3.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$498M
+19.2% YoY
FY2
$591M
+18.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.95
+7.8% YoY
FY2
$9.02
+13.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$237M
FCF Margin: 56.9%
Next Earnings
August 3, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.81
Expected Revenue
$125M
KRYS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
KRYS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $233 — implies -33.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
33.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KRYS
50.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+108% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
KRYS
50.9x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+130% premium
vs KRYS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
50.9x
vs
5Y Average
44.1x
+15% premium
Forward PE
44.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
+139%
Healthcare
18.3x
+145%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
50.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
+108%
Healthcare
22.1x
+130%
5Y Avg
44.1x
+15%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
58.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+283%
Healthcare
14.2x
+310%
5Y Avg
50.4x
+16%
Price/FCF
54.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+162%
Healthcare
18.5x
+193%
5Y Avg
39.1x
+39%
Price/Sales
26.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+753%
Healthcare
2.6x
+900%
5Y Avg
17.5x
+51%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | KRYS | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg KRYS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 44.9x | 18.8x+139% | 18.3x+145% | — |
| Trailing PE | 50.9x | 24.4x+108% | 22.1x+130% | 44.1x+15% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 58.2x | 15.2x+283% | 14.2x+310% | 50.4x+16% |
| Price/FCF | 54.3x | 20.7x+162% | 18.5x+193% | 39.1x+39% |
| Price/Sales | 26.4x | 3.1x+753% | 2.6x+900% | 17.5x+51% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
KRYS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKRYS Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
KRYS generates $237M in free cash flow at a 56.9% margin — 18.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$417M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+25.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
92.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
42.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
53.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.38
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$237M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
56.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
17.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$496M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$487M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
29M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageKRYS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Product Concentration
The company faces risks related to Vyjuvek concentration, which could impact revenue if demand or reimbursement for this product declines.
High Risk
Reimbursement Decisions
Changes in reimbursement policies could negatively affect the financial performance of Krystal Biotech's therapies.
Medium
Rising SG&A Costs
Increasing selling, general, and administrative expenses may pressure profitability and margins.
Medium
Gene Therapy Competition
Evolving competition in the gene therapy space could challenge market share and pricing power.
Medium
Regulatory Risks
Regulatory changes or delays in approvals could impact the company's pipeline and growth prospects.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
High valuation multiples (e.g., 25.3x) may pose risks if earnings growth does not meet expectations.
Lower
Analyst Sentiment
Despite a Strong Buy consensus, reliance on analyst ratings carries inherent forecasting risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KRYS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong revenue growth forecast
Forecasting 45% revenue growth to $564M in 2026, indicating robust business expansion.
High margin scalability
94% gross margin TTM with 42% operating margin demonstrates a highly scalable gene therapy platform.
Undervalued stock potential
Bull case fair value estimated at $315 per share, suggesting ~5.8% undervaluation vs. recent close.
Gene therapy platform strength
Operating in biotechnology with a focus on gene therapy, showcasing innovative healthcare solutions.
Recent stock performance
Stock rallied from $205 to $285, a 39% gain, reflecting strong investor confidence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KRYS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$348.06
52W Range Position
96%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$127.99
+171.9% from the low
52-Week High
$356.50
-2.4% from the high
1 Month
+19.30%
3 Month
+38.76%
YTD
+41.0%
1 Year
+163.5%
3Y CAGR
+40.8%
5Y CAGR
+39.7%
10Y CAGR
+41.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KRYS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
44.9x
vs 55.6x median
-19% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+19.2%
vs +17.0% median
+13% above peer median
Net Margin
53.9%
vs -13.4% median
+502% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KRY KRYS Krystal Biotech, Inc. | $10.3B | 44.9x | +19.2% | 53.9% | Buy | -3.4% |
RCK RCKT Rocket Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $366M | — | — | — | Buy | +49.3% |
RAR RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. | $2.7B | — | +15.3% | -91.0% | Buy | +76.2% |
FOL FOLD Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. | $4.5B | 40.6x | +18.1% | -4.3% | Buy | +0.1% |
ACA ACAD ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. | $3.7B | 55.6x | +15.9% | 34.3% | Buy | +55.7% |
PTC PTCT PTC Therapeutics, Inc. | $6.6B | 89.1x | +22.9% | -22.6% | Buy | +21.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsKRYS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Krystal Biotech, Inc. (KRYS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Krystal Biotech, Inc. (KRYS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $336, implying -3.4% from the current price of $348. The bear case scenario is $256 and the bull case is $535.
02What is the KRYS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KRYS is $336 based on 17 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $371 (+6.6% from today), and the low-end target is $300 (-13.8%). The base case model target is $406.
03Is Krystal Biotech, Inc. (KRYS) stock overvalued in 2026?
KRYS trades at 44.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Krystal Biotech, Inc. (KRYS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KRYS in 2026 are: (1) Product Concentration — The company faces risks related to Vyjuvek concentration, which could impact revenue if demand or reimbursement for this product declines. (2) Reimbursement Decisions — Changes in reimbursement policies could negatively affect the financial performance of Krystal Biotech's therapies. (3) Rising SG&A Costs — Increasing selling, general, and administrative expenses may pressure profitability and margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Krystal Biotech, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KRYS will report consensus revenue of $498M (+19.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.95 (+7.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $591M in revenue.
06When does Krystal Biotech, Inc. (KRYS) report its next earnings?
Krystal Biotech, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-03. Consensus expects EPS of $1.81 and revenue of $125M. Over recent quarters, KRYS has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Krystal Biotech, Inc. generate?
Krystal Biotech, Inc. (KRYS) generated $237M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 56.9%. KRYS returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).