Upside case
Bull case
$441+60.6%
LECO would need investors to value it at roughly 41x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
22
analysts
7 bullish · 1 bearish · 22 covering LECO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$302
+9.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$166 – $441
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.1B
LECO price targets
Three scenarios for where LECO stock could go
Current
~$275
Confidence
64 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $275
Bear
$166
Base
$348
Bull
$441
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$348+26.7%
At 32x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$166-39.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push LECO down roughly 40% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.
LECO · NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesDecember year-end
Lincoln Electric is a global manufacturer of welding equipment, consumables, and cutting systems used across industrial and construction applications. It generates revenue primarily from equipment sales (~60%) and consumables (~40%) through its Americas Welding, International Welding, and Harris Products Group segments. The company's moat lies in its integrated ecosystem—offering both equipment and consumables—and its strong brand reputation built on over a century of welding expertise.
Market Cap
$15.1B
Revenue TTM
$4.3B
Net Income TTM
$538M
Net Margin
12.4%
LECO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.60/$2.31
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.47/$2.39
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.65/$2.54
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.50/$2.42
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.60/$2.31 | +12.6% | $1.1B/$1.0B | +4.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.47/$2.39 | +3.3% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.65/$2.54 | +4.3% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -2.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.50/$2.42 | +3.3% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +4.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.6B
+5.3% YoY
FY2
$4.8B
+5.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.78
+10.8% YoY
FY2
$11.80
+9.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$438M
FCF Margin: 10.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LECO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
LECO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Americas Welding
67.4%
+5.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
62.2%
+11.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Americas Welding is the largest disclosed segment at 67.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 62.2%, up 11.8% YoY.
LECO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $273 — implies +2.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
2.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LECO
29.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+17% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
LECO
29.5x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+14% premium
vs LECO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.5x
vs
5Y Average
24.0x
+23% premium
Forward PE
25.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+33%
Industrials
20.8x
+22%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+17%
Industrials
25.9x
+14%
5Y Avg
24.0x
+23%
PEG Ratio
1.33x
S&P 500
1.75x
-24%
Industrials
1.59x
-16%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
+29%
Industrials
13.9x
+42%
5Y Avg
16.2x
+22%
Price/FCF
28.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
+32%
Industrials
20.6x
+37%
5Y Avg
24.8x
+14%
Price/Sales
3.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+14%
Industrials
1.6x
+124%
5Y Avg
2.7x
+30%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
S&P 500
1.88%
-42%
Industrials
1.24%
-11%
5Y Avg
1.39%
-21%
| Metric | LECO | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg LECO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.4x | 19.1x+33% | 20.8x+22% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.5x | 25.2x+17% | 25.9x+14% | 24.0x+23% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.33x | 1.75x-24% | 1.59x-16% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.7x | 15.3x+29% | 13.9x+42% | 16.2x+22% |
| Price/FCF | 28.2x | 21.3x+32% | 20.6x+37% | 24.8x+14% |
| Price/Sales | 3.6x | 3.1x+14% | 1.6x+124% | 2.7x+30% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.10% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.39% |
LECO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLECO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
LECO generates $438M in free cash flow at a 10.1% margin — 22.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.73
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$438M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
22.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
14.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$309M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$985M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.2× FCF
~2.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
37.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.3%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
2.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$338M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
32.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
55M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLECO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Economic Cycles
LECO's reliance on the manufacturing and industrial sectors makes it highly susceptible to economic downturns and recessions. A significant decrease in demand for its products and services during such periods could adversely affect its financial performance.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
The company faces substantial risks from disruptions in the supply chain and fluctuations in the prices of key raw materials like steel, copper, and aluminum. Such volatility can directly impact production costs and profit margins.
High Risk
International Trade Tensions
Tariffs and trade disputes pose a significant risk to LECO's international sales and profitability, given its extensive global operations. Changes in trade policies could lead to increased costs and reduced market access.
Medium
Competition in Automation
While LECO maintains a strong presence in the automation market, increasing competition from outsourced solutions could hinder its growth potential. This competitive pressure may affect market share and pricing strategies.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Analysts have raised concerns about LECO's relatively high share price, particularly if future earnings do not align with current market expectations. This misalignment could expose investors to the risk of overpaying for the stock.
Lower
Foreign Exchange & Interest Rates
LECO's significant international operations expose it to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, while its customer financing programs are sensitive to interest rate changes. However, the company's strategic currency management has historically mitigated some of these risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LECO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Leadership and Diversified Products
Lincoln Electric is a leading global manufacturer of welding and cutting products, serving various industries. The company has a diverse portfolio and is well-positioned in key end markets.
Automation and Infrastructure Spending
The company is expected to benefit from accelerating automation demand and increased global automation and infrastructure spending, which will ignite industrial demand.
Organic and M&A Growth
Analysts project mid-single-digit growth in 2026, driven by both organic growth and mergers and acquisitions (M&A). The company is also targeting high 20% incremental margins through sales leverage and enterprise initiatives.
Innovation and Digital Solutions
Lincoln Electric has a strong track record of innovation and has identified opportunities for growth in both domestic and international operations. The company is also focusing on digital solutions to drive higher margins and stronger free cash flow.
Financial Performance
The company has shown consistent profitability, with a strong gross margin of 36% and a significant net income. In Q4 2025, Lincoln Electric reported net sales increase of 5.5% to $1,079 million and adjusted EPS of $2.65.
Shareholder Returns
Lincoln Electric has a history of increasing dividends and buying back shares, contributing to shareholder value.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LECO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$274.89
52W Range Position
73%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$179.71
+53.0% from the low
52-Week High
$310.00
-11.3% from the high
1 Month
+15.48%
3 Month
-8.03%
YTD
+12.8%
1 Year
+52.3%
3Y CAGR
+17.5%
5Y CAGR
+15.5%
10Y CAGR
+16.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LECO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.4x
vs 22.8x median
+12% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.3%
vs +2.5% median
+110% above peer median
Net Margin
12.4%
vs 13.3% median
-7% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LEC LECO Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | $15.1B | 25.4x | +5.3% | 12.4% | Hold | +9.8% |
ITW ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. | $75.1B | 23.1x | +1.8% | 19.3% | Hold | +5.0% |
IR IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. | $30.8B | 22.4x | +6.5% | 7.5% | Buy | +26.5% |
SWK SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $12.6B | 17.8x | -0.8% | 2.4% | Hold | +10.0% |
PH PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | $113.9B | 29.1x | +2.5% | 16.6% | Buy | +15.4% |
EMR EMR Emerson Electric Co. | $83.2B | 22.8x | +3.8% | 13.3% | Buy | +9.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LECO Dividend and Capital Return
LECO returns capital mainly through $338M/year in buybacks (2.2% buyback yield), with a modest 1.10% dividend — combining for 3.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 25 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.2%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
Payout Ratio
32.3%
How LECO Splits Its Return
Div 1.10%
Buyback 2.2%
Dividend 1.10%Buybacks 2.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
25Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.4%
5Y Div CAGR
9.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$338M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
55M
At 2.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.58 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.04 | +5.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% |
| 2024 | $2.88 | +9.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% |
| 2023 | $2.63 | +13.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% |
| 2022 | $2.32 | +11.0% | 2.1% | 3.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsLECO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $302, implying +9.8% from the current price of $275. The bear case scenario is $166 and the bull case is $441.
02What is the LECO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LECO is $302 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $340 (+23.7% from today), and the low-end target is $240 (-12.7%). The base case model target is $348.
03Is Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) stock overvalued in 2026?
LECO trades at 25.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LECO in 2026 are: (1) Economic Cycles — LECO's reliance on the manufacturing and industrial sectors makes it highly susceptible to economic downturns and recessions. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions — The company faces substantial risks from disruptions in the supply chain and fluctuations in the prices of key raw materials like steel, copper, and aluminum. (3) International Trade Tensions — Tariffs and trade disputes pose a significant risk to LECO's international sales and profitability, given its extensive global operations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LECO will report consensus revenue of $4.6B (+5.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.78 (+10.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.8B in revenue.
06When does Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LECO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. generate?
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) generated $438M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.1%. LECO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($338M TTM).