Upside case
Bull case
$418+51.8%
LECO would need investors to value it at roughly 38x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
22
analysts
7 bullish · 1 bearish · 22 covering LECO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$304
+10.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$200 – $418
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.1B
LECO price targets
Three scenarios for where LECO stock could go
Current
~$275
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $275
Bear
$200
Base
$317
Bull
$418
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$317+15.2%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$200-27.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push LECO down roughly 27% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.
LECO · NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesDecember year-end
Lincoln Electric is a global manufacturer of welding equipment, consumables, and cutting systems used across industrial and construction applications. It generates revenue primarily from equipment sales (~60%) and consumables (~40%) through its Americas Welding, International Welding, and Harris Products Group segments. The company's moat lies in its integrated ecosystem—offering both equipment and consumables—and its strong brand reputation built on over a century of welding expertise.
Market Cap
$15.1B
Revenue TTM
$4.3B
Net Income TTM
$538M
Net Margin
12.4%
LECO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.60/$2.31
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.47/$2.39
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.65/$2.54
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.50/$2.42
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.60/$2.31 | +12.6% | $1.1B/$1.0B | +4.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.47/$2.39 | +3.3% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.65/$2.54 | +4.3% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -2.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.50/$2.42 | +3.3% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +4.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.6B
+5.5% YoY
FY2
$4.8B
+4.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.67
+9.6% YoY
FY2
$11.45
+7.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$438M
FCF Margin: 10.1%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.78
Expected Revenue
$1.2B
LECO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
LECO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Americas Welding
67.4%
+5.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
62.2%
+11.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Americas Welding is the largest disclosed segment at 67.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 62.2%, up 11.8% YoY.
LECO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $288 — implies +4.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LECO
29.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+21% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
LECO
29.5x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+15% premium
vs LECO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.5x
vs
5Y Average
24.0x
+23% premium
Forward PE
25.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+34%
Industrials
21.2x
+19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
+21%
Industrials
25.6x
+15%
5Y Avg
24.0x
+23%
PEG Ratio
1.33x
S&P 500
1.66x
-20%
Industrials
1.65x
-19%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+30%
Industrials
13.9x
+42%
5Y Avg
16.2x
+22%
Price/FCF
28.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+36%
Industrials
20.0x
+41%
5Y Avg
24.8x
+14%
Price/Sales
3.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+15%
Industrials
1.6x
+128%
5Y Avg
2.7x
+30%
Dividend Yield
1.09%
S&P 500
1.91%
-43%
Industrials
1.21%
-10%
5Y Avg
1.39%
-21%
| Metric | LECO | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg LECO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.1x | 18.8x+34% | 21.2x+19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.5x | 24.4x+21% | 25.6x+15% | 24.0x+23% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.33x | 1.66x-20% | 1.65x-19% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.8x | 15.2x+30% | 13.9x+42% | 16.2x+22% |
| Price/FCF | 28.2x | 20.7x+36% | 20.0x+41% | 24.8x+14% |
| Price/Sales | 3.6x | 3.1x+15% | 1.6x+128% | 2.7x+30% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.09% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.39% |
LECO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLECO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
LECO generates $438M in free cash flow at a 10.1% margin — 22.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.73
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$438M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
22.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
14.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$309M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$985M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.2× FCF
~2.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
37.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.3%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
2.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$338M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
32.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
55M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLECO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Analyst downgrades
Analyst downgrades and price target reductions signaled a less optimistic outlook, contributing to a 10% stock decline.
Medium
Business concerns
Outperformance masks core business concerns, raising questions about the stock's current investment profile.
Medium
Market volatility
Recent stock performance and market adjustments indicate potential volatility and investor skepticism.
Lower
Product lineup
The company offers a diverse luxury SUV lineup, but this may not offset broader financial risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LECO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Consistent dividend growth
Lincoln Electric has achieved 30 consecutive dividend hikes, demonstrating a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Robotic welding pivot
The company's strategic shift towards automation, including its Inrotech robotic welding technology, positions it well for future growth in industrial automation.
Strong financial fundamentals
Lincoln Electric is recognized as a high-quality compounder with consistent financial performance, driven by strong fundamentals rather than valuation expansion.
Global market presence
The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells welding products both in the United States and internationally, providing diversified revenue streams.
Attractive valuation metrics
With trailing and forward P/E ratios of 26.95 and 23.42 respectively, Lincoln Electric offers reasonable valuation for a company with strong growth prospects.
Revenue growth potential
The company's automation re-rating thesis and $4.1B revenue base suggest significant potential for continued top-line expansion.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LECO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$275.23
52W Range Position
69%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$199.13
+38.2% from the low
52-Week High
$310.00
-11.2% from the high
1 Month
+5.49%
3 Month
+6.58%
YTD
+12.9%
1 Year
+36.9%
3Y CAGR
+12.3%
5Y CAGR
+17.4%
10Y CAGR
+16.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LECO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.1x
vs 23.2x median
+9% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.5%
vs +3.1% median
+77% above peer median
Net Margin
12.4%
vs 13.3% median
-7% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LEC LECO Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | $15.1B | 25.1x | +5.5% | 12.4% | Hold | +10.5% |
ITW ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. | $76.1B | 23.4x | +2.8% | 19.3% | Hold | +2.7% |
IR IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. | $30.5B | 22.2x | +7.1% | 7.5% | Buy | +20.2% |
SWK SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $13.5B | 19.1x | +0.8% | 2.4% | Hold | +2.2% |
PH PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | $120.3B | 30.5x | +3.1% | 16.6% | Buy | +9.9% |
EMR EMR Emerson Electric Co. | $84.4B | 23.2x | +3.4% | 13.3% | Buy | +7.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LECO Dividend and Capital Return
LECO returns capital mainly through $338M/year in buybacks (2.2% buyback yield), with a modest 1.09% dividend — combining for 3.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 25 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.2%
Dividend Yield
1.09%
Payout Ratio
32.3%
How LECO Splits Its Return
Div 1.09%
Buyback 2.2%
Dividend 1.09%Buybacks 2.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
25Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.4%
5Y Div CAGR
9.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$338M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
55M
At 2.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.58 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.04 | +5.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% |
| 2024 | $2.88 | +9.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% |
| 2023 | $2.63 | +13.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% |
| 2022 | $2.32 | +11.0% | 2.1% | 3.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsLECO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $304, implying +10.5% from the current price of $275. The bear case scenario is $200 and the bull case is $418.
02What is the LECO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LECO is $304 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $340 (+23.5% from today), and the low-end target is $250 (-9.2%). The base case model target is $317.
03Is Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) stock overvalued in 2026?
LECO trades at 25.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LECO in 2026 are: (1) Analyst downgrades — Analyst downgrades and price target reductions signaled a less optimistic outlook, contributing to a 10% stock decline. (2) Business concerns — Outperformance masks core business concerns, raising questions about the stock's current investment profile. (3) Market volatility — Recent stock performance and market adjustments indicate potential volatility and investor skepticism. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LECO will report consensus revenue of $4.6B (+5.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.67 (+9.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.8B in revenue.
06When does Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) report its next earnings?
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $2.78 and revenue of $1.2B. Over recent quarters, LECO has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. generate?
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) generated $438M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.1%. LECO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($338M TTM).