Upside case
Bull case
$351-58.7%
The bull case prices LITE at 43x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
17 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering LITE
Strong Buy
1
Buy
16
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$986
+16.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$168 – $351
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
103.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $60.7B
LITE price targets
Three scenarios for where LITE stock could go
Current
~$850
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $850
Bear
$168
Base
$266
Bull
$351
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$266-68.7%
At 32x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$168-80.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 83x multiple contraction could push LITE down roughly 80% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
LITE · NASDAQTechnologyCommunication EquipmentJune year-end
Lumentum is a manufacturer of optical and photonic components for telecommunications and industrial applications. It generates revenue primarily from its Optical Communications segment (~85% of sales) selling transceivers, amplifiers, and other fiber optic components, with the remainder from Commercial Lasers for materials processing and 3D sensing. The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized photonics expertise and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities for high-performance optical components.
Market Cap
$60.7B
Revenue TTM
$2.5B
Net Income TTM
$440M
Net Margin
17.7%
LITE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+21.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.88/$0.81
Revenue
$425M/$471M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.10/$1.03
Revenue
$534M/$526M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.67/$1.41
Revenue
$666M/$652M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.37/$2.27
Revenue
$808M/$810M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.88/$0.81 | +8.1% | $425M/$471M | -9.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.10/$1.03 | +6.8% | $534M/$526M | +1.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.67/$1.41 | +18.4% | $666M/$652M | +2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.37/$2.27 | +4.4% | $808M/$810M | -0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.8B
+13.3% YoY
FY2
$3.3B
+18.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.35
+16.9% YoY
FY2
$5.92
+10.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$399M
FCF Margin: 16.0%
Next Earnings
August 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.96
Expected Revenue
$985M
LITE beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
LITE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Asia Pacific
32.0%
+28.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Asia Pacific is the largest reported region at 32.0%, up 28.3% YoY.
LITE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $781 — implies -8.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
8.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LITE
2297.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+9296% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
LITE
2297.3x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+7820% premium
vs LITE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
2297.3x
vs
5Y Average
30.1x
+7527% premium
Forward PE
103.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+451%
Technology
22.3x
+366%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
2297.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+9296%
Technology
29.0x
+7820%
5Y Avg
30.1x
+7527%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
819.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+5288%
Technology
16.6x
+4830%
5Y Avg
23.3x
+3416%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Technology
19.2x
—
5Y Avg
33.7x
—
Price/Sales
36.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+1093%
Technology
2.4x
+1413%
5Y Avg
3.1x
+1074%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | LITE | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg LITE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 103.7x | 18.8x+451% | 22.3x+366% | — |
| Trailing PE | 2297.3x | 24.4x+9296% | 29.0x+7820% | 30.1x+7527% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 819.5x | 15.2x+5288% | 16.6x+4830% | 23.3x+3416% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 19.2x | 33.7x |
| Price/Sales | 36.9x | 3.1x+1093% | 2.4x+1413% | 3.1x+1074% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
LITE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLITE Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
LITE generates $399M in free cash flow at a 16.0% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+69.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
37.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.57
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$399M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
16.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-4.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$521M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.2× FCF
~5.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
30.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-4.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$42M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
71M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageLITE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Liquidity Risk
Lumentum has $3.18B of now-current convertible notes and a going concern warning, indicating significant short-term liquidity risk.
High Risk
Customer Concentration
43% of revenue comes from just two customers, creating vulnerability to demand shifts or loss of key accounts.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
The stock trades at a 60.8x PE ratio, suggesting potential overvaluation relative to fundamentals.
Medium
Supply Constraints
AI InP EML demand is sold out to 2026, limiting near-term revenue upside despite strong demand.
Lower
Market Sentiment
Analyst reports suggest the stock may be 'too fully priced to chase,' indicating limited near-term upside.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LITE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Photonic revolution leadership
Lumentum leads the photonic revolution, which is crucial for data center buildouts, supporting robust top and bottom-line growth.
AI infrastructure growth
The company's role in AI infrastructure and strategic acquisitions are key drivers of its growth trajectory.
Structural importance in tech
Lumentum is one of the most structurally important and financially compelling growth stories in global technology markets today.
Light engine of AI
Often characterized as the 'light engine of the AI data center,' Lumentum manufactures the physical light that powers the AI revolution.
Investor attention capture
Lumentum has emerged as a formidable player in the optical and photonic products market, capturing investor attention with its recent bullish thesis.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LITE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$850.00
52W Range Position
76%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$86.57
+881.9% from the low
52-Week High
$1085.68
-21.7% from the high
1 Month
-3.95%
3 Month
+21.29%
YTD
+120.1%
1 Year
+860.9%
3Y CAGR
+140.2%
5Y CAGR
+60.4%
10Y CAGR
+42.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LITE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
103.7x
vs 71.4x median
+45% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.3%
vs +9.0% median
+48% above peer median
Net Margin
17.7%
vs 2.8% median
+537% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIT LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. | $60.7B | 103.7x | +13.3% | 17.7% | Buy | +16.0% |
COH COHR Coherent, Inc. | $61.8B | 71.4x | +9.0% | 10.6% | Buy | -16.8% |
AAO AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | $12.8B | 156.6x | +24.6% | -8.5% | Buy | -1.1% |
IPG IPGP IPG Photonics Corporation | $5.0B | 92.9x | +3.6% | 2.8% | Buy | +28.4% |
VIA VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $10.9B | 50.3x | +6.1% | -4.0% | Buy | -31.6% |
CIE CIEN Ciena Corporation | $60.6B | 65.6x | +10.5% | 7.9% | Buy | +15.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LITE Dividend and Capital Return
LITE does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$42M
Estimated Shares Retired
49.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
71M
FAQ
7 questionsLITE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $986, implying +16.0% from the current price of $850. The bear case scenario is $168 and the bull case is $351.
02What is the LITE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LITE is $986 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1270 (+49.4% from today), and the low-end target is $550 (-35.3%). The base case model target is $266.
03Is Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) stock overvalued in 2026?
LITE trades at 103.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LITE in 2026 are: (1) Liquidity Risk — Lumentum has $3. (2) Customer Concentration — 43% of revenue comes from just two customers, creating vulnerability to demand shifts or loss of key accounts. (3) Valuation Concerns — The stock trades at a 60. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LITE will report consensus revenue of $2.8B (+13.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.35 (+16.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.3B in revenue.
06When does Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) report its next earnings?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-11. Consensus expects EPS of $2.96 and revenue of $985M. Over recent quarters, LITE has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Lumentum Holdings Inc. generate?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) generated $399M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.0%. LITE returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($42M TTM).