Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing COHR more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Coherent, Inc. (COHR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
24 bullish · 0 bearish · 29 covering COHR
Strong Buy
1
Buy
23
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$253
-26.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
64.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $54.7B
COHR price targets
Three scenarios for where COHR stock could go
Current
~$345
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Coherent, Inc.
COHR · NASDAQTechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsJune year-end
Coherent is a leading manufacturer of lasers and laser-based systems for commercial, industrial, and scientific applications. It generates revenue primarily through two segments: OEM Laser Sources and Industrial Lasers & Systems, which serve microelectronics, materials processing, and scientific research markets. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep technical expertise, broad patent portfolio, and established relationships with major industrial and scientific customers.
Market Cap
$54.7B
Revenue TTM
$1.81T
Net Income TTM
$191.7B
Net Margin
10.6%
COHR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.91/$0.86
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.00/$0.92
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.16/$1.04
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.29/$1.21
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.91/$0.86 | +6.3% | $1.5B/$1.5B | -0.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.00/$0.92 | +8.7% | $1.5B/$1.5B | -1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.16/$1.04 | +11.5% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.29/$1.21 | +6.6% | $1.7B/$1.6B | +2.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.4B
+18.1% YoY
FY2
$9.2B
+23.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.86
+51.6% YoY
FY2
$3.01
+5.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$537.2B
FCF Margin: -29.7%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.41
Expected Revenue
$1.8B
COHR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
COHR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Lasers Segment
60.1%
+2.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
61.4%
+35.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Lasers Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 60.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.8% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 61.4%, up 35.9% YoY.
COHR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $219 — implies -33.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
33.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
COHR
-662.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
2727% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
COHR
-662.8x
vs
Technology
27.5x
2512% discount
vs COHR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-662.8x
vs
5Y Average
32.9x
2116% discount
Forward PE
64.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+237%
Technology
21.7x
+196%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-662.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-2727%
Technology
27.5x
-2512%
5Y Avg
32.9x
-2116%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
52.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
+243%
Technology
17.4x
+201%
5Y Avg
13.6x
+285%
Price/FCF
283.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+1229%
Technology
19.8x
+1332%
5Y Avg
48.4x
+486%
Price/Sales
9.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+200%
Technology
2.4x
+290%
5Y Avg
2.1x
+346%
Dividend Yield
0.02%
S&P 500
1.88%
-99%
Technology
1.18%
-98%
5Y Avg
0.33%
-93%
| Metric | COHR | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg COHR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 64.2x | 19.1x+237% | 21.7x+196% | — |
| Trailing PE | -662.8x | 25.2x-2727% | 27.5x-2512% | 32.9x-2116% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.3x | 15.3x+243% | 17.4x+201% | 13.6x+285% |
| Price/FCF | 283.5x | 21.3x+1229% | 19.8x+1332% | 48.4x+486% |
| Price/Sales | 9.4x | 3.1x+200% | 2.4x+290% | 2.1x+346% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.02% | 1.88% | 1.18% | 0.33% |
COHR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCOHR Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for COHR are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.81T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+32257.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
0.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
0.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
—
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$537.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-29.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$909M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
6.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
0.0%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$54M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.07
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
23.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
159M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCOHR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Stock Price Volatility
Coherent’s share price can swing sharply due to a mix of financial performance, analyst estimates, capital structure changes, interest rates, regulatory shifts, product news, and broader market trends. The high beta of 1.905 amplifies this volatility, making the stock sensitive to macro‑economic swings.
High Risk
Debt Load
The company carries approximately $3.5 billion in debt, which increases interest obligations and limits financial flexibility. A significant debt burden could strain cash flow and heighten default risk if earnings falter.
High Risk
Preferred Stock Control
Series B Preferred Stock holders wield substantial control, potentially overriding ordinary shareholders on key transactions, including changes of control. Issuing additional preferred shares could dilute voting power or alter dividend/liquidation preferences, affecting shareholder influence.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
Coherent relies on sole‑source or limited‑source suppliers for critical components, exposing it to shortages or price spikes. Global supply chain disruptions could delay production and erode delivery capabilities.
Medium
Intense Competition
The markets in which Coherent operates are highly competitive, and intensified rivalry could erode sales volumes, compress gross margins, or erode market share. New entrants or aggressive pricing by competitors pose ongoing threats.
Lower
Customer Concentration
Revenue is concentrated among a small number of major customers, making the company vulnerable to loss or reduced orders from any single client. A decline in a key customer’s demand could materially impact top line.
Lower
Regulatory Compliance
Coherent must adhere to current and future environmental regulations, which could impose significant compliance costs. Non‑compliance risks could lead to fines or operational restrictions.
Lower
Foreign Currency Risk
Fluctuations in foreign exchange rates can negatively affect revenues, cost of sales, and operating margins, especially for international operations. Currency volatility introduces additional earnings uncertainty.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why COHR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI & Data Center Revenue Surge
Coherent’s data center and communications segment now drives a large share of revenue and has posted strong year‑over‑year growth, fueled by demand for high‑speed optical transceivers such as 800‑gig and 1.6‑terabit units.
Next‑Gen Coherent Link Roadmap
The company’s optics roadmap aligns with GPU and NIC upgrades, offering 800ZR, 1.6T, and 3.2T coherent links that can double bandwidth without costly infrastructure expansion, while prototypes for 12.8T and beyond are under development.
In‑House Indium Phosphide Fab Expansion
Coherent is expanding its internal InP wafer fab capacity, a move that improves gross margins and creates high barriers to entry by ensuring supply‑chain resilience and reducing reliance on external suppliers.
Strategic Silicon Photonics Partnerships
Collaborations such as the NVIDIA silicon photonics networking switch using co‑packaged optics (CPO) enable millions of GPUs to interconnect in AI factories, and multi‑year agreements with customers like Apple further cement its market position.
Projected Revenue & Margin Growth
The company forecasts revenue to climb from $6.2 billion in 2025 to $11 billion by 2027, with gross margins expanding to 40% and net margins approaching 20%, underpinning robust earnings growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
COHR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$344.67
52W Range Position
93%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$66.71
+416.7% from the low
52-Week High
$364.80
-5.5% from the high
1 Month
+36.11%
3 Month
+51.38%
YTD
+77.4%
1 Year
+393.9%
3Y CAGR
+120.5%
5Y CAGR
+41.9%
10Y CAGR
+32.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
COHR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
64.2x
vs 62.8x median
+2% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+18.1%
vs +9.6% median
+88% above peer median
Net Margin
10.6%
vs 2.8% median
+281% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
COH COHR Coherent, Inc. | $54.7B | 64.2x | +18.1% | 10.6% | Buy | -26.7% |
LIT LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. | $67.4B | 121.0x | +21.6% | 17.7% | Buy | -31.9% |
VIA VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $12.3B | 57.3x | +3.7% | -4.0% | Buy | -39.2% |
IPG IPGP IPG Photonics Corporation | $4.3B | 62.8x | -0.6% | 2.8% | Buy | +48.8% |
MKS MKSI MKS Inc. | $19.8B | 29.7x | +9.6% | 7.5% | Buy | -7.1% |
AAO AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | $14.1B | 189.4x | +47.1% | -8.4% | Buy | -74.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
COHR Dividend and Capital Return
COHR returns capital mainly through $54M/year in buybacks (0.1% buyback yield), with a modest 0.02% dividend — combining for 0.1% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
0.02%
Payout Ratio
23.2%
How COHR Splits Its Return
Div 0.02%
Buyback 0.1%
Dividend 0.02%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.07
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-37.0%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$54M
Estimated Shares Retired
156.6K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
159M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | $1.00 | — | 0.5% | 0.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsCOHR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Coherent, Inc. (COHR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Coherent, Inc. (COHR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $253, implying -26.7% from the current price of $345.
02What is the COHR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for COHR is $253 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $455 (+32.0% from today), and the low-end target is $170 (-50.7%).
03Is Coherent, Inc. (COHR) stock overvalued in 2026?
COHR trades at 64.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Coherent, Inc. (COHR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for COHR in 2026 are: (1) Stock Price Volatility — Coherent’s share price can swing sharply due to a mix of financial performance, analyst estimates, capital structure changes, interest rates, regulatory shifts, product news, and broader market trends. (2) Debt Load — The company carries approximately $3. (3) Preferred Stock Control — Series B Preferred Stock holders wield substantial control, potentially overriding ordinary shareholders on key transactions, including changes of control. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Coherent, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates COHR will report consensus revenue of $7.4B (+18.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.86 (+51.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.2B in revenue.
06When does Coherent, Inc. (COHR) report its next earnings?
Coherent, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.41 and revenue of $1.8B. Over recent quarters, COHR has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Coherent, Inc. generate?
Coherent, Inc. (COHR) had a free cash outflow of $537.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 29.7%. COHR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.0% yield) and share repurchases ($54M TTM).