Upside case
Bull case
$11240+2785.3%
COHR would need investors to value it at roughly 2061x earnings — about 1990x more generous than today's 71x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Coherent, Inc. (COHR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
30
analysts
24 bullish · 0 bearish · 30 covering COHR
Strong Buy
1
Buy
23
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$324
-16.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$5374 – $11240
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
30
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
71.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $61.8B
COHR price targets
Three scenarios for where COHR stock could go
Current
~$390
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $390
Bear
$5374
Base
$8531
Bull
$11240
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$8531+2089.8%
At 1564x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$5374+1279.6%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push COHR down roughly 1280% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Coherent, Inc.
COHR · NASDAQTechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsJune year-end
Coherent is a leading manufacturer of lasers and laser-based systems for commercial, industrial, and scientific applications. It generates revenue primarily through two segments: OEM Laser Sources and Industrial Lasers & Systems, which serve microelectronics, materials processing, and scientific research markets. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep technical expertise, broad patent portfolio, and established relationships with major industrial and scientific customers.
Market Cap
$61.8B
Revenue TTM
$1.81T
Net Income TTM
$191.7B
Net Margin
10.6%
COHR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+17.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.00/$0.92
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.16/$1.04
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.29/$1.21
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.41/$1.41
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.00/$0.92 | +8.7% | $1.5B/$1.5B | -1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.16/$1.04 | +11.5% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.29/$1.21 | +6.6% | $1.7B/$1.6B | +2.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.41/$1.41 | +0.0% | $1.8B/$1.8B | +1.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.97T
+9.0% YoY
FY2
$2.14T
+8.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$630.71
-48.8% YoY
FY2
$473.94
-24.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$537.2B
FCF Margin: -29.7%
Next Earnings
August 12, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.62
Expected Revenue
$2.0B
COHR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
COHR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Lasers Segment
60.1%
+2.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
61.4%
+35.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Lasers Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 60.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.8% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 61.4%, up 35.9% YoY.
COHR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $53077 — implies +13524.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
13524.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
COHR
-749.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
3164% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
COHR
-749.2x
vs
Technology
29.0x
2683% discount
vs COHR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-749.2x
vs
5Y Average
32.9x
2378% discount
Forward PE
71.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+280%
Technology
22.3x
+221%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-749.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-3164%
Technology
29.0x
-2683%
5Y Avg
32.9x
-2378%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
58.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+286%
Technology
16.6x
+253%
5Y Avg
13.6x
+332%
Price/FCF
320.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+1448%
Technology
19.2x
+1568%
5Y Avg
48.4x
+563%
Price/Sales
10.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+244%
Technology
2.4x
+336%
5Y Avg
2.1x
+404%
Dividend Yield
0.02%
S&P 500
1.91%
-99%
Technology
1.11%
-98%
5Y Avg
0.33%
-94%
| Metric | COHR | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg COHR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 71.4x | 18.8x+280% | 22.3x+221% | — |
| Trailing PE | -749.2x | 24.4x-3164% | 29.0x-2683% | 32.9x-2378% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 58.7x | 15.2x+286% | 16.6x+253% | 13.6x+332% |
| Price/FCF | 320.5x | 20.7x+1448% | 19.2x+1568% | 48.4x+563% |
| Price/Sales | 10.6x | 3.1x+244% | 2.4x+336% | 2.1x+404% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.02% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 0.33% |
COHR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCOHR Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for COHR are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.81T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+32257.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
0.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
0.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1232.67
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$537.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-29.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$909M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
6.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
0.0%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$54M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.07
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
23.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
159M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCOHR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Valuation de-rating
Despite bullish price targets, downside risk may be ignored, with a -16.4% upside to the consensus target suggesting potential overvaluation.
High Risk
Revenue and earnings uncertainty
Future stock price projections rely heavily on revenue estimates and growth-adjusted multiples, which may not materialize as expected.
Medium
Market competition
As a leader in photonics, Coherent faces intense competition in datacenter, communications, and industrial markets, which could pressure margins.
Lower
Share dilution risk
Future stock price models account for potential share dilution, which could negatively impact existing shareholders.
High Risk
AI and semiconductor hype risk
While COHR is gaining attention in the AI and semiconductor space, unrealistic expectations could lead to volatility if growth disappoints.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why COHR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Optical communications leadership
Coherent is a critical supplier in the optical communications value chain, offering a comprehensive portfolio of coherent transceivers, lasers, amplifiers, and photonic devices that support faster, more efficient networks.
AI-driven data center growth
Positioned at the heart of the AI-driven data center buildout, Coherent's leadership in laser light sources and photonic components makes it a key beneficiary of this trend.
Strong financial performance
Coherent reported strong second-quarter 2026 results with sales of US$1,685.63 million and net income of US$146.72 million, indicating robust financial health.
Market momentum
Coherent's stock has risen 400.63% over the past year, reflecting strong investor confidence and market momentum.
Global photonics leader
As the global leader in photonics, Coherent drives innovation in datacenter, communications, and industrial markets, with industry leaders relying on its world-leading technology.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
COHR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$389.57
52W Range Position
86%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$77.84
+400.5% from the low
52-Week High
$440.00
-11.5% from the high
1 Month
+7.37%
3 Month
+51.46%
YTD
+100.5%
1 Year
+373.4%
3Y CAGR
+91.7%
5Y CAGR
+42.0%
10Y CAGR
+34.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
COHR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
71.4x
vs 92.9x median
-23% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.0%
vs +11.3% median
-20% below peer median
Net Margin
10.6%
vs 2.8% median
+281% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
COH COHR Coherent, Inc. | $61.8B | 71.4x | +9.0% | 10.6% | Buy | -16.8% |
LIT LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. | $60.7B | 103.7x | +13.3% | 17.7% | Buy | +16.0% |
VIA VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $10.9B | 50.3x | +6.1% | -4.0% | Buy | -31.6% |
IPG IPGP IPG Photonics Corporation | $5.0B | 92.9x | +3.6% | 2.8% | Buy | +28.4% |
MKS MKSI MKS Inc. | $27.4B | 34.7x | +11.3% | 8.0% | Buy | -20.8% |
AAO AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | $12.8B | 156.6x | +24.6% | -8.5% | Buy | -1.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
COHR Dividend and Capital Return
COHR returns capital mainly through $54M/year in buybacks (0.1% buyback yield), with a modest 0.02% dividend — combining for 0.1% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
0.02%
Payout Ratio
23.2%
How COHR Splits Its Return
Div 0.02%
Buyback 0.1%
Dividend 0.02%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.07
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-37.0%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$54M
Estimated Shares Retired
138.6K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
159M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | $1.00 | — | 0.5% | 0.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsCOHR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Coherent, Inc. (COHR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Coherent, Inc. (COHR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $324, implying -16.8% from the current price of $390. The bear case scenario is $5374 and the bull case is $11240.
02What is the COHR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for COHR is $324 based on 30 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $455 (+16.8% from today), and the low-end target is $230 (-41.0%). The base case model target is $8531.
03Is Coherent, Inc. (COHR) stock overvalued in 2026?
COHR trades at 71.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Coherent, Inc. (COHR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for COHR in 2026 are: (1) Revenue and earnings uncertainty — Future stock price projections rely heavily on revenue estimates and growth-adjusted multiples, which may not materialize as expected. (2) AI and semiconductor hype risk — While COHR is gaining attention in the AI and semiconductor space, unrealistic expectations could lead to volatility if growth disappoints. (3) Valuation de-rating — Despite bullish price targets, downside risk may be ignored, with a -16. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Coherent, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates COHR will report consensus revenue of $1.97T (+9.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $630.71 (-48.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.14T in revenue.
06When does Coherent, Inc. (COHR) report its next earnings?
Coherent, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-12. Consensus expects EPS of $1.62 and revenue of $2.0B. Over recent quarters, COHR has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Coherent, Inc. generate?
Coherent, Inc. (COHR) had a free cash outflow of $537.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 29.7%. COHR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.0% yield) and share repurchases ($54M TTM).