Upside case
Bull case
$7-85.3%
The bull case prices VIAV at 7x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Viavi Solutions Inc. (VIAV) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
15 bullish · 1 bearish · 19 covering VIAV
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
3
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$32
-31.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$3 – $7
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
50.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.9B
VIAV price targets
Three scenarios for where VIAV stock could go
Current
~$47
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $47
Bear
$3
Base
$5
Bull
$7
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$5-88.8%
At 6x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$3-93.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 47x multiple contraction could push VIAV down roughly 93% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Viavi Solutions Inc.
VIAV · NASDAQTechnologyCommunication EquipmentJune year-end
Viavi Solutions is a provider of network testing, monitoring, and assurance solutions for communications networks. It generates revenue through three segments: Network Enablement (~50% of revenue) for network build-out tools, Service Enablement (~30%) for performance management software, and Optical Security & Performance Products (~20%) for anti-counterfeiting and optical components. The company's moat lies in its deep technical expertise across multiple network layers and its established relationships with major telecom operators and equipment manufacturers.
Market Cap
$10.9B
Revenue TTM
$1.4B
Net Income TTM
-$55M
Net Margin
-4.0%
VIAV Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+13.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.13/$0.12
Revenue
$291M/$285M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.15/$0.13
Revenue
$299M/$302M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.22/$0.19
Revenue
$369M/$365M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.27/$0.24
Revenue
$407M/$394M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.13/$0.12 | +8.3% | $291M/$285M | +1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.15/$0.13 | +15.4% | $299M/$302M | -0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.22/$0.19 | +15.8% | $369M/$365M | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.27/$0.24 | +12.5% | $407M/$394M | +3.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.4B
+6.1% YoY
FY2
$1.6B
+9.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.01
+104.0% YoY
FY2
$0.12
— YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$46M
FCF Margin: 3.3%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.30
Expected Revenue
$433M
VIAV beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
VIAV Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
84.1%
+9.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
39.2%
+8.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 84.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.2% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 39.2%, up 8.8% YoY.
VIAV Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $41 — implies -13.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
13.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VIAV
314.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+1186% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
VIAV
314.5x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+984% premium
vs VIAV 5Y Avg P/E
Today
314.5x
vs
5Y Average
76.6x
+310% premium
Forward PE
50.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
+167%
Technology
22.3x
+126%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
314.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
+1186%
Technology
29.0x
+984%
5Y Avg
76.6x
+310%
PEG Ratio
68.90x
S&P 500
1.66x
+4052%
Technology
1.51x
+4474%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
83.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+450%
Technology
16.6x
+404%
5Y Avg
16.6x
+404%
Price/FCF
176.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+751%
Technology
19.2x
+816%
5Y Avg
28.8x
+511%
Price/Sales
10.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+226%
Technology
2.4x
+313%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+327%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | VIAV | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg VIAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 50.3x | 18.8x+167% | 22.3x+126% | — |
| Trailing PE | 314.5x | 24.4x+1186% | 29.0x+984% | 76.6x+310% |
| PEG Ratio | 68.90x | 1.66x+4052% | 1.51x+4474% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 83.7x | 15.2x+450% | 16.6x+404% | 16.6x+404% |
| Price/FCF | 176.0x | 20.7x+751% | 19.2x+816% | 28.8x+511% |
| Price/Sales | 10.1x | 3.1x+226% | 2.4x+313% | 2.4x+327% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
VIAV trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVIAV Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for VIAV are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+30.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
55.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-4.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.22
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$46M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-2.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$424M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$269M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.9× FCF
~5.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-6.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$16M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
231M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageVIAV Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings volatility
Trailing twelve-month revenue shows a basic EPS loss of US$0.24, indicating inconsistent profitability.
Medium
Business model shift
Shift from telecom service providers to data centers introduces execution risks with faster product cycles (2-3 years).
High Risk
Dilution risk
Public offering of 11.1M shares at $45.00 may lead to shareholder dilution and profit-taking pressure.
Medium
Valuation concerns
Stock rallied sharply in 2026, raising valuation risks despite a -31.1% implied upside in consensus targets.
Lower
Market positioning
Recent financing and debt paydown could strain short-term liquidity despite long-term benefits.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VIAV Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong post-earnings rally
VIAV rallied 17.5% on D+1 and is up 32.6% since earnings, significantly outperforming SOX and NASDAQ indices, confirming the bullish thesis.
Successful business pivot
The company's multi-year shift from telco-dependent to data center/A&D-driven revenue is now measurable and accelerating, validating its strategic direction.
Attractive valuation metrics
VIAV's forward P/E of 32.68 suggests improving earnings potential compared to its trailing P/E of 85.13, indicating potential for multiple expansion.
Market leadership in testing
VIAVI is a global leader in test and measurement solutions for critical infrastructure including data centers, communication networks, and aerospace/defense sectors.
Bullish analyst coverage
A detailed bullish thesis on Viavi Solutions was published on Fabian's Substack, highlighting the company's growth potential and strategic positioning.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VIAV Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$47.17
52W Range Position
74%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$9.18
+413.8% from the low
52-Week High
$60.43
-21.9% from the high
1 Month
-5.17%
3 Month
+45.41%
YTD
+159.9%
1 Year
+405.0%
3Y CAGR
+64.7%
5Y CAGR
+22.5%
10Y CAGR
+20.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VIAV vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
50.3x
vs 35.7x median
+41% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.1%
vs +6.5% median
-7% below peer median
Net Margin
-4.0%
vs 17.2% median
-123% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VIA VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $10.9B | 50.3x | +6.1% | -4.0% | Buy | -31.6% |
KEY KEYS Keysight Technologies, Inc. | $62.4B | 35.7x | +6.5% | 17.2% | Buy | +7.1% |
LIT LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. | $60.7B | 103.7x | +13.3% | 17.7% | Buy | +16.0% |
CIE CIEN Ciena Corporation | $60.6B | 65.6x | +10.5% | 7.9% | Buy | +15.2% |
NTC NTCT NetScout Systems, Inc. | $2.8B | 16.4x | +4.1% | 11.1% | Hold | -4.2% |
CSC CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. | $471.2B | 28.0x | +6.4% | 19.7% | Buy | +3.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VIAV Dividend and Capital Return
VIAV returns 0.2% annually — null% through dividends and 0.2% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$16M
Estimated Shares Retired
347.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
231M
FAQ
7 questionsVIAV Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Viavi Solutions Inc. (VIAV) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Viavi Solutions Inc. (VIAV) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $32, implying -31.6% from the current price of $47. The bear case scenario is $3 and the bull case is $7.
02What is the VIAV stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VIAV is $32 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $50 (+6.0% from today), and the low-end target is $24 (-49.1%). The base case model target is $5.
03Is Viavi Solutions Inc. (VIAV) stock overvalued in 2026?
VIAV trades at 50.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Viavi Solutions Inc. (VIAV) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VIAV in 2026 are: (1) Earnings volatility — Trailing twelve-month revenue shows a basic EPS loss of US$0. (2) Dilution risk — Public offering of 11. (3) Business model shift — Shift from telecom service providers to data centers introduces execution risks with faster product cycles (2-3 years). Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Viavi Solutions Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VIAV will report consensus revenue of $1.4B (+6.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.01 (+104.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.6B in revenue.
06When does Viavi Solutions Inc. (VIAV) report its next earnings?
Viavi Solutions Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.30 and revenue of $433M. Over recent quarters, VIAV has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Viavi Solutions Inc. generate?
Viavi Solutions Inc. (VIAV) generated $46M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.3%. VIAV returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($16M TTM).