Upside case
Bull case
$381+139.3%
RJF would need investors to value it at roughly 32x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
24
analysts
10 bullish · 0 bearish · 24 covering RJF
Strong Buy
1
Buy
9
Hold
14
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$169
+6.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$129 – $381
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $31.4B
RJF price targets
Three scenarios for where RJF stock could go
Current
~$159
Confidence
70 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $159
Bear
$129
Base
$210
Bull
$381
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$210+31.6%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$129-19.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push RJF down roughly 19% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Raymond James Financial, Inc.
RJF · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsSeptember year-end
Raymond James Financial is a diversified financial services firm that provides wealth management, investment banking, and banking services to individuals, corporations, and institutions. It generates revenue primarily through its Private Client Group — which contributes roughly 60% of earnings via fees and commissions — along with Capital Markets investment banking and trading, Asset Management fees, and banking interest income. The company's key advantage is its integrated advisor-centric model that combines independent and employee advisors with full-service banking and capital markets capabilities under one roof.
Market Cap
$31.4B
Net Income TTM
$2.1B
RJF Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.18/$2.37
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.11/$2.83
Revenue
$4.1B/$3.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.86/$2.83
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.83/$2.76
Revenue
$3.9B/$3.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.18/$2.37 | -8.0% | $3.8B/$3.4B | +12.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.11/$2.83 | +9.9% | $4.1B/$3.6B | +13.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.86/$2.83 | +1.1% | $3.7B/$3.8B | -2.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.83/$2.76 | +2.5% | $3.9B/$3.8B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$16.7B
+5.2% YoY
FY2
$18.2B
+8.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.16
+12.8% YoY
FY2
$13.55
+11.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
RJF beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
RJF Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $16.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Private Client Group
61.5%
+7.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
91.5%
+9.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Private Client Group is the largest disclosed segment at 61.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 91.5%, up 9.7% YoY.
RJF Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $201 — implies +28.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
28.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RJF
15.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
39% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
RJF
15.5x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+16% premium
vs RJF 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.5x
vs
5Y Average
14.0x
+10% premium
Forward PE
13.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-30%
Financial Services
10.5x
+28%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-39%
Financial Services
13.4x
+16%
5Y Avg
14.0x
+10%
PEG Ratio
0.72x
S&P 500
1.75x
-59%
Financial Services
1.03x
-30%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
-66%
Financial Services
11.4x
-55%
5Y Avg
7.2x
-28%
Price/FCF
14.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
-34%
Financial Services
10.6x
+31%
5Y Avg
10.7x
+30%
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-37%
Financial Services
2.3x
-12%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+3%
Dividend Yield
1.26%
S&P 500
1.88%
-33%
Financial Services
2.68%
-53%
5Y Avg
1.34%
-6%
| Metric | RJF | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg RJF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.4x | 19.1x-30% | 10.5x+28% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.5x | 25.2x-39% | 13.4x+16% | 14.0x+10% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.72x | 1.75x-59% | 1.03x-30% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2x | 15.3x-66% | 11.4x-55% | 7.2x-28% |
| Price/FCF | 14.0x | 21.3x-34% | 10.6x+31% | 10.7x+30% |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-37% | 2.3x-12% | 1.9x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.26% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 1.34% |
RJF trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRJF Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
RJF generates 16.4% ROE and 2.5% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.78
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
16.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
20.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$11.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$6.8B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
16.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.3%
Dividend
1.3%
Buyback
4.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
19.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
197M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageRJF Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Market Volatility
RJF’s capital markets business is highly sensitive to broader market conditions. Prolonged volatility can delay or cancel deals, reduce fee income, and suppress trading activity, directly impacting earnings.
High Risk
Regulatory & Litigation
The firm faces extensive U.S. federal, state, and international regulations. Potential legal challenges and capital requirement breaches under Basel III and U.S. Capital Rules could trigger regulatory actions and necessitate additional capital, materially affecting financial results.
High Risk
Liquidity & Subordination
RJF’s liquidity depends on payments from subsidiaries, which may be restricted by regulations. Its capital stock is subordinated to all existing and future liabilities of its subsidiaries, exposing the firm to liquidity constraints.
Medium
Operational Risks
Operational mishaps such as trade errors, failed transaction settlements, and system processing interruptions could damage reputation and financial standing. Continuous investment in risk management and technology is essential to mitigate these risks.
Medium
Organic Growth Deceleration
Slowed organic growth could negatively affect the asset management and capital markets segments, potentially reducing revenue growth and market share.
Medium
Cybersecurity Risks
Cybersecurity threats remain a concern, with potential for data breaches or system compromises that could harm reputation and incur significant remediation costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RJF Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Revenue & Earnings Growth
Raymond James reported record quarterly revenue of $3.7 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, up 6% year‑over‑year. Earnings per share surpassed analyst expectations, and the firm maintained its adjusted pretax margin target despite headwinds.
Wealth Management Asset Expansion
Net new assets in wealth management reached $31 billion in Q1 2026, representing an 8% annualized growth rate. Client assets grew 15% year‑over‑year, reaching a record $1.71 trillion.
Advisor Recruitment Momentum
A record advisor recruiting pipeline has driven growth in financial advisor headcount, leading to increased trailing production and expanding the firm’s distribution network.
Technical Strength & Market Position
The stock trades above key moving averages, exhibiting positive long‑term and short‑term trends. It is performing on par with or slightly better than the broader market.
Shareholder Return Initiatives
Raymond James has been returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder value.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RJF Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$159.37
52W Range Position
53%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$138.82
+14.8% from the low
52-Week High
$177.66
-10.3% from the high
1 Month
+12.44%
3 Month
-7.42%
YTD
-2.6%
1 Year
+12.9%
3Y CAGR
+22.8%
5Y CAGR
+11.9%
10Y CAGR
+16.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RJF vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.4x
vs 14.5x median
-7% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.2%
vs +13.9% median
-63% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs 0.9% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RJF RJF Raymond James Financial, Inc. | $31.4B | 13.4x | +5.2% | — | Hold | +6.0% |
SF SF Stifel Financial Corp. | $12.1B | 12.5x | +5.3% | — | Buy | +19.1% |
LPL LPL LG Display Co., Ltd. | $4.5B | 0.0x | -0.8% | 0.9% | Hold | — |
LPL LPLA LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | $26.1B | 14.5x | +26.4% | — | Buy | +35.7% |
PJT PJT PJT Partners Inc. | $3.7B | 20.4x | +13.9% | — | Hold | +4.3% |
HLI HLI Houlihan Lokey, Inc. | $10.3B | 19.1x | +22.6% | — | Buy | +35.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RJF Dividend and Capital Return
RJF returns capital mainly through $1.3B/year in buybacks (4.0% buyback yield), with a modest 1.26% dividend — combining for 5.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 22 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.0%
Dividend Yield
1.26%
Payout Ratio
19.5%
How RJF Splits Its Return
Div 1.26%
Buyback 4.0%
Dividend 1.26%Buybacks 4.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
22Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.0%
5Y Div CAGR
22.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
8M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
197M
At 4.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.00 | +48.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
| 2024 | $1.35 | -21.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% |
| 2023 | $1.71 | -3.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% |
| 2022 | $1.78 | +71.2% | 1.0% | 2.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsRJF Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $169, implying +6.0% from the current price of $159. The bear case scenario is $129 and the bull case is $381.
02What is the RJF stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RJF is $169 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $172 (+7.9% from today), and the low-end target is $166 (+4.2%). The base case model target is $210.
03Is Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) stock overvalued in 2026?
RJF trades at 13.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RJF in 2026 are: (1) Market Volatility — RJF’s capital markets business is highly sensitive to broader market conditions. (2) Regulatory & Litigation — The firm faces extensive U. (3) Liquidity & Subordination — RJF’s liquidity depends on payments from subsidiaries, which may be restricted by regulations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Raymond James Financial, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RJF will report consensus revenue of $16.7B (+5.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.16 (+12.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.2B in revenue.
06When does Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for RJF is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Raymond James Financial, Inc. generate?
Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. RJF returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.3% yield) and share repurchases ($1.3B TTM).