Upside case
Bull case
$130+67.3%
SF would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
22
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 22 covering SF
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
9
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$93
+20.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$27 – $130
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.0B
SF price targets
Three scenarios for where SF stock could go
Current
~$78
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $78
Bear
$27
Base
$78
Bull
$130
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$78+0.3%
This is close to how the market is already pricing SF — at roughly 12x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$27-65.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push SF down roughly 66% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Stifel Financial Corp.
SF · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsDecember year-end
Stifel Financial is a diversified financial services firm that operates as both a brokerage and investment bank. It generates revenue primarily from wealth management fees and commissions (~60% of revenue) and investment banking services (~30%), with the remainder from institutional trading and banking operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated model that combines retail brokerage with institutional capabilities—allowing it to serve clients across the wealth spectrum while maintaining strong regional banking relationships.
Market Cap
$12.0B
Net Income TTM
$684M
SF Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
73%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
91%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-6.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$1.95/$1.85
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.40/—
Revenue
$1.8B/—
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.75/$1.65
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.45/$1.39
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.95/$1.85 | +5.4% | $1.6B/$1.3B | +21.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.40/— | — | $1.8B/— | — |
| Q1 2026 | $1.75/$1.65 | +6.1% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +3.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.45/$1.39 | +4.3% | $1.4B/$1.4B | -0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.6B
+5.3% YoY
FY2
$7.1B
+7.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.49
-11.4% YoY
FY2
$5.90
+7.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$993M
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SF beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SF Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Asset Management
45.1%
+10.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
91.7%
+13.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Asset Management is the largest disclosed segment at 45.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.7% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 91.7%, up 13.6% YoY.
SF Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $113 — implies +46.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
46.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SF
13.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
47% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
SF
13.2x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
In line with benchmark
vs SF 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.2x
vs
5Y Average
10.1x
+31% premium
Forward PE
12.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-35%
Financial Services
10.4x
+19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
-47%
Financial Services
13.3x
-1%
5Y Avg
10.1x
+31%
PEG Ratio
1.85x
S&P 500
1.72x
+8%
Financial Services
1.01x
+82%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-16%
Financial Services
11.4x
+12%
5Y Avg
6.6x
+95%
Price/FCF
10.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
-53%
Financial Services
10.6x
-5%
5Y Avg
10.1x
-1%
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-39%
Financial Services
2.2x
-14%
5Y Avg
1.2x
+59%
Dividend Yield
2.40%
S&P 500
1.87%
+29%
Financial Services
2.70%
-11%
5Y Avg
2.38%
+1%
| Metric | SF | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.4x | 19.1x-35% | 10.4x+19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.2x | 25.1x-47% | 13.3x | 10.1x+31% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.85x | 1.72x | 1.01x+82% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.8x | 15.2x-16% | 11.4x+12% | 6.6x+95% |
| Price/FCF | 10.0x | 21.1x-53% | 10.6x | 10.1x |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-39% | 2.2x-14% | 1.2x+59% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.40% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 2.38% |
SF trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSF Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
SF generates 12.0% ROE and 1.7% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.20
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
12.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$103M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
12.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.4%
Dividend
2.4%
Buyback
2.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$245M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.87
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
30.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
155M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageSF Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Slowing Revenue Growth
Salesforce has projected a revenue growth slowdown to 6-8% for fiscal 2026, a stark decline from its historical double-digit growth. This deceleration is attributed to cautious enterprise spending amid economic uncertainty, leading to longer purchase cycles.
High Risk
Valuation Concerns
The stock is currently trading at a premium across various valuation metrics, including price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios. If Salesforce fails to deliver the anticipated strong future growth, a significant valuation reset could occur.
High Risk
Debt-Financed Share Repurchases
Salesforce's aggressive share repurchase program, funded by debt, introduces substantial financial risk. While management's actions signal confidence in the stock's undervaluation, reliance on debt can strain financial stability.
High Risk
Regulatory Compliance Risks
Salesforce must comply with stringent regulations like GDPR and CCPA, with non-compliance potentially resulting in hefty fines and reputational damage. This is particularly critical for financial institutions that handle sensitive customer data.
High Risk
Intensifying Competition
Salesforce faces increasing competition from major players like Microsoft Dynamics 365 and ServiceNow, which could lead to pricing pressure and reduced average selling prices. This competitive landscape poses a significant threat to Salesforce's market share.
Medium
AI Competition and Disruption
The emergence of generative AI poses a risk as businesses may opt to develop their own customer management tools, potentially diminishing the demand for Salesforce's CRM software. Additionally, AI-native competitors could disrupt Salesforce's market position.
Medium
Economic Headwinds
Macroeconomic factors such as rising interest rates and volatile foreign exchange markets could adversely impact Salesforce's performance. These economic uncertainties may lead to reduced customer spending and investment.
Lower
Stock Volatility
Salesforce's stock has historically experienced significant fluctuations, typical of technology companies. This volatility can create uncertainty for investors and impact stock performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SF Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Promising Investment Banking Outlook
Stifel's Investment Banking division, including KBW, is positioned for growth, particularly with a booming M&A market. The company has reported strong revenue growth and pre-tax profits in this segment, indicating a robust pipeline and demand for investment banking services.
Value in Wealth Management Division
The Wealth Management division is a significant asset for Stifel, showing record results and contributing to overall revenue growth. This segment could unlock further value, either as an acquirer or as a target for investment.
Strong Financial Performance
Stifel has consistently demonstrated robust revenue growth, exceeding analyst expectations, and has shown strong year-on-year growth in assets under management. The company also has a history of increasing dividends, with a low payout ratio that reflects its financial health.
Undervaluation Potential
Analyses suggest that Stifel Financial may be undervalued based on discounted cash flow (DCF) and multiples-based valuation methods. Its current price is perceived as potentially below its intrinsic value, indicating room for appreciation.
Positive Technical Indicators
Technical analyses indicate bullish trends for Stifel, with moving averages crossing and the stock price showing upward momentum during certain periods. These indicators suggest a favorable market sentiment and potential for continued price appreciation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SF Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$77.75
52W Range Position
27%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$58.24
+33.5% from the low
52-Week High
$130.67
-40.5% from the high
1 Month
+6.29%
3 Month
-8.92%
YTD
-9.1%
1 Year
+31.0%
3Y CAGR
+26.2%
5Y CAGR
+10.3%
10Y CAGR
+18.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SF vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.4x
vs 19.5x median
-36% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.3%
vs +13.9% median
-62% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SF SF Stifel Financial Corp. | $12.0B | 12.4x | +5.3% | — | Buy | +20.2% |
RJF RJF Raymond James Financial, Inc. | $31.3B | 13.4x | +5.2% | — | Hold | +6.4% |
PJT PJT PJT Partners Inc. | $3.7B | 20.4x | +13.9% | — | Hold | +4.4% |
LAZ LAZ Lazard Ltd | $4.2B | 14.1x | +3.8% | — | Buy | +4.9% |
HLI HLI Houlihan Lokey, Inc. | $10.3B | 19.5x | +22.6% | — | Buy | +33.2% |
MC MC Moelis & Company | $4.7B | 20.7x | +24.6% | — | Hold | +15.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SF Dividend and Capital Return
SF returns 4.4% total yield, led by a 2.40% dividend, raised 10 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 2.0%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.0%
Dividend Yield
2.40%
Payout Ratio
30.2%
How SF Splits Its Return
Div 2.40%
Buyback 2.0%
Dividend 2.40%Buybacks 2.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.87
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.0%
5Y Div CAGR
30.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$245M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
155M
At 2.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.34 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.69 | +20.5% | 2.7% | 4.9% |
| 2024 | $1.40 | -2.8% | 1.8% | 4.3% |
| 2023 | $1.44 | +20.0% | 8.5% | 11.6% |
| 2022 | $1.20 | +100.0% | 2.3% | 5.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsSF Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $93, implying +20.2% from the current price of $78. The bear case scenario is $27 and the bull case is $130.
02What is the SF stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SF is $93 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $99 (+27.8% from today), and the low-end target is $89 (+14.5%). The base case model target is $78.
03Is Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) stock overvalued in 2026?
SF trades at 12.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SF in 2026 are: (1) Slowing Revenue Growth — Salesforce has projected a revenue growth slowdown to 6-8% for fiscal 2026, a stark decline from its historical double-digit growth. (2) Valuation Concerns — The stock is currently trading at a premium across various valuation metrics, including price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios. (3) Debt-Financed Share Repurchases — Salesforce's aggressive share repurchase program, funded by debt, introduces substantial financial risk. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Stifel Financial Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SF will report consensus revenue of $6.6B (+5.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.49 (-11.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.1B in revenue.
06When does Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SF is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Stifel Financial Corp. generate?
Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) generated $993M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. SF returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.4% yield) and share repurchases ($245M TTM).