Upside case
Bull case
$56-67.5%
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing LYV more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
44
analysts
39 bullish · 0 bearish · 44 covering LYV
Strong Buy
0
Buy
39
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$186
+8.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$27 – $56
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $39.8B
LYV price targets
Three scenarios for where LYV stock could go
Current
~$171
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $171
Bear
$27
Base
$42
Bull
$56
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$42-75.3%
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
$27-84.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push LYV down roughly 84% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.
LYV · NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentDecember year-end
Live Nation Entertainment is the world's largest live entertainment company, operating concerts, festivals, and venue management globally. It generates revenue primarily through concert promotion and production (~60%), ticketing services via Ticketmaster (~30%), and sponsorship/advertising deals (~10%). Its key competitive advantage is its vertically integrated ecosystem—controlling artists, venues, ticketing, and sponsorships—which creates powerful network effects and barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$39.8B
Revenue TTM
$25.6B
Net Income TTM
$84M
Net Margin
0.3%
LYV Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-37.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.41/$1.03
Revenue
$7.0B/$6.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.73/$1.31
Revenue
$8.5B/$8.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-1.06/$-1.02
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-1.85/$-0.35
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.41/$1.03 | -60.2% | $7.0B/$6.8B | +2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.73/$1.31 | -44.3% | $8.5B/$8.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $-1.06/$-1.02 | -3.9% | $6.3B/$6.1B | +3.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $-1.85/$-0.35 | -427.2% | $3.8B/$3.6B | +6.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$28.2B
+10.1% YoY
FY2
$30.4B
+7.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.84
+133.0% YoY
FY2
$2.35
+180.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 4.8%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.68
Expected Revenue
$7.6B
LYV beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
LYV Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Concerts
63.3%
-82.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Total Foreign Operations
44.2%
+81.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Concerts is the largest disclosed segment at 63.3% of FY 2025 revenue, down 82.7% YoY.
Total Foreign Operations is the largest reported region at 44.2%, up 81.4% YoY.
LYV Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $41 — implies -76.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
76.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LYV
-713.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
3018% discount
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
LYV
-713.5x
vs
Communication Services
15.3x
4764% discount
vs LYV 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-713.5x
vs
5Y Average
75.4x
1047% discount
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Communication Services
11.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-713.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-3018%
Communication Services
15.3x
-4764%
5Y Avg
75.4x
-1047%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Communication Services
0.64x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+34%
Communication Services
9.6x
+112%
5Y Avg
17.9x
+14%
Price/FCF
119.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+476%
Communication Services
11.4x
+947%
5Y Avg
35.9x
+232%
Price/Sales
1.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-49%
Communication Services
1.0x
+55%
5Y Avg
1.7x
-9%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Communication Services
3.43%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | LYV | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg LYV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 11.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | -713.5x | 24.4x-3018% | 15.3x-4764% | 75.4x-1047% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.64x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.4x | 15.2x+34% | 9.6x+112% | 17.9x+14% |
| Price/FCF | 119.3x | 20.7x+476% | 11.4x+947% | 35.9x+232% |
| Price/Sales | 1.6x | 3.1x-49% | 1.0x+55% | 1.7x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 3.43% | — |
LYV trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 4 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLYV Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
LYV 19.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$25.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
40.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.36
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
19.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$7.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.3× FCF
~4.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$24M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
232M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLYV Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory risks
Live Nation faces significant antitrust scrutiny, with potential enforcement actions that could disrupt its vertically integrated business model.
High Risk
Overvaluation concerns
Despite strong revenue growth, the company may be overvalued, with market cap reflecting unsustainable optimism.
Medium
Economic vulnerability
Live Nation's business is exposed to macroeconomic downturns, which could reduce discretionary spending on concerts and live events.
Medium
Legal accruals impact
Significant legal expenses and accruals are affecting earnings, creating uncertainty for investors.
Lower
Strategic model disruption
Regulatory outcomes could redefine the live entertainment ecosystem, impacting ticket pricing and venue contracts.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LYV Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
DOJ Settlement Resolution
Live Nation settled its antitrust lawsuit with the DOJ without financial penalties, removing a major regulatory overhang.
Strong 2026 Outlook
The company raised its 2026 outlook due to robust demand in concerts, ticketing, and sponsorships.
Operating Income Growth
Live Nation reported 52% operating income growth in fiscal 2025, showcasing strong financial performance.
Robust Touring Calendar
A strong 2026 touring and festival calendar is expected to drive revenue and investor confidence.
Higher Ticketing Margins
Improved ticketing margins are anticipated to contribute positively to the company's profitability.
Limited Regulatory Disruption
The resolution of antitrust issues signals reduced regulatory risks moving forward.
Market Leadership
Live Nation is the global leader in live entertainment, with key assets like Ticketmaster and Live Nation Concerts.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LYV Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$171.24
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$125.34
+36.6% from the low
52-Week High
$176.00
-2.7% from the high
1 Month
+2.24%
3 Month
+9.44%
YTD
+17.8%
1 Year
+15.5%
3Y CAGR
+24.3%
5Y CAGR
+14.9%
10Y CAGR
+21.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LYV vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 22.6x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+10.1%
vs +8.1% median
+25% above peer median
Net Margin
0.3%
vs 7.6% median
-96% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LYV LYV Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $39.8B | — | +10.1% | 0.3% | Buy | +8.5% |
MSG MSGE Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. | $3.5B | 65.3x | +3.0% | 4.8% | Buy | -6.0% |
EPR EPR EPR Properties | $4.4B | 19.0x | +8.1% | 38.8% | Hold | +6.7% |
TM TM Toyota Motor Corporation | $226.7B | 0.1x | +8.2% | 7.6% | Hold | +3.1% |
EB EB Eventbrite, Inc. | $436M | — | +4.0% | -3.6% | Hold | +149.0% |
IMA IMAX IMAX Corporation | $2.4B | 26.2x | +11.3% | 10.7% | Buy | +19.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LYV Dividend and Capital Return
LYV does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$24M
Estimated Shares Retired
137.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
232M
FAQ
7 questionsLYV Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 39 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $186, implying +8.5% from the current price of $171. The bear case scenario is $27 and the bull case is $56.
02What is the LYV stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LYV is $186 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $200 (+16.8% from today), and the low-end target is $155 (-9.5%). The base case model target is $42.
03Is Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for LYV is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LYV in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory risks — Live Nation faces significant antitrust scrutiny, with potential enforcement actions that could disrupt its vertically integrated business model. (2) Overvaluation concerns — Despite strong revenue growth, the company may be overvalued, with market cap reflecting unsustainable optimism. (3) Economic vulnerability — Live Nation's business is exposed to macroeconomic downturns, which could reduce discretionary spending on concerts and live events. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LYV will report consensus revenue of $28.2B (+10.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.84 (+133.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $30.4B in revenue.
06When does Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) report its next earnings?
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.68 and revenue of $7.6B. Over recent quarters, LYV has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. generate?
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.8%. LYV returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($24M TTM).