Upside case
Bull case
$54874+28033.3%
TM would need investors to value it at roughly 19x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 0x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
16
analysts
6 bullish · 0 bearish · 16 covering TM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
10
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$179
-8.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$19884 – $54874
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $254.2B
TM price targets
Three scenarios for where TM stock could go
Current
~$195
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $195
Bear
$19884
Base
$37566
Bull
$54874
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$37566+19159.8%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$19884+10094.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push TM down roughly 10094% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Toyota Motor Corporation
TM · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersMarch year-end
Toyota is one of the world's largest automakers, manufacturing and selling vehicles across nearly every segment — from compact cars to luxury sedans and trucks. It generates most of its revenue from automotive sales (around 90%), supplemented by financial services (about 8%) that provide financing and leasing to customers. The company's key advantage is its legendary manufacturing efficiency — particularly the Toyota Production System — which delivers industry-leading quality and cost control while pioneering hybrid technology with its Prius platform.
Market Cap
$254.2B
Revenue TTM
$49.39T
Net Income TTM
$4.63T
Net Margin
9.4%
TM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+52.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.35/—
Revenue
$85.0B/—
Q3 2025
EPS
$4.47/$4.67
Revenue
$84.6B/$82.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.85/$3.36
Revenue
$82.5B/$80.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$6.26/$4.35
Revenue
$85.8B/$83.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.35/— | — | $85.0B/— | — |
| Q3 2025 | $4.47/$4.67 | -4.3% | $84.6B/$82.4B | +2.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.85/$3.36 | +44.3% | $82.5B/$80.9B | +2.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.26/$4.35 | +43.9% | $85.8B/$83.0B | +3.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$53.83T
+9.0% YoY
FY2
$58.71T
+9.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3884.74
+9.3% YoY
FY2
$4434.59
+14.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$147.8B
FCF Margin: 0.3%
Next Earnings
May 8, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.11
Expected Revenue
$79.6B
TM beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $48.04T
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Vehicles
76.8%
+4.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
JAPAN
45.5%
+4.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Vehicles is the largest disclosed segment at 76.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.7% YoY.
JAPAN is the largest reported region at 45.5%, up 4.0% YoY.
TM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $55239 — implies +29172.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
29172.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TM
8.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
66% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
TM
8.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
57% discount
vs TM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
8.5x
vs
5Y Average
0.1x
+10964% premium
Forward PE
0.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-100%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-100%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
8.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-66%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-57%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+10964%
PEG Ratio
0.42x
S&P 500
1.75x
-76%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
-56%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-35%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-13%
5Y Avg
4.4x
+122%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-74%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+16%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+12164%
Dividend Yield
2.83%
S&P 500
1.88%
+51%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
+32%
5Y Avg
2.66%
+7%
| Metric | TM | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg TM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.1x | 19.1x-100% | 15.2x-100% | — |
| Trailing PE | 8.5x | 25.2x-66% | 19.6x-57% | 0.1x+10964% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.42x | 1.75x-76% | 0.95x-56% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.9x | 15.3x-35% | 11.4x-13% | 4.4x+122% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.0x | — |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-74% | 0.7x+16% | 0.0x+12164% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.83% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 2.66% |
TM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTM Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
TM returns 5.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$49.39T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3553.47
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$147.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$8.98T
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$29.81T
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
201.7× FCF
~201.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.8%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
3.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.18T
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$863.50
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
23.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Tariffs & Trade Policies
Tariffs and international trade changes, particularly those linked to geopolitics, can significantly increase costs and impact operating income. For instance, a 15% tariff on Japanese imports could cost Toyota billions.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Toyota’s operations are vulnerable to disruptions in its global supply chain caused by natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts, or supplier issues. Such disruptions can lead to increased costs, component shortages, production delays, and temporary shutdowns.
High Risk
Electrification Shift
Rapid changes in consumer preferences, especially the shift toward electrified vehicles, pose a significant challenge. Toyota’s ability to adapt and maintain competitiveness in this evolving market is crucial for its future success.
High Risk
Economic Downturns
Weakness in global demand for automobiles, driven by economic conditions, can adversely affect Toyota’s financial results. Economic downturns can reduce sales volumes and compress margins.
Medium
Currency Fluctuations
Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates can negatively impact Toyota’s financial condition and results of operations. Volatile currency movements can erode earnings from overseas markets.
Medium
Regulatory Compliance
Toyota faces risks related to safety and environmental regulations, such as emission levels and fuel economy standards. Compliance may require costly upgrades and can affect product pricing and market access.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Earnings per Share
Toyota reported EPS of $6.26, surpassing analyst expectations. This strong profitability signals healthy operating performance and supports upside potential.
Industry-Leading Growth Metrics
Toyota's 3-year EPS CAGR of 21.78% ranks in the top 10% of its sector, while its total return of 52.15% places it in the top 25%. These figures demonstrate sustained growth and shareholder value creation.
Large Market Capitalization
With a market cap of approximately $282 billion, Toyota commands a dominant position in the automotive industry. This scale underpins its resilience and capacity for long-term investment.
Positive Technical Indicators
Daily analysis shows a MACD of 0.650 and six buy signals versus two sell signals, suggesting bullish momentum. These technical cues reinforce the favorable outlook for the stock.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$195.05
52W Range Position
34%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$167.18
+16.7% from the low
52-Week High
$248.90
-21.6% from the high
1 Month
-4.58%
3 Month
-20.13%
YTD
-10.5%
1 Year
+1.4%
3Y CAGR
+12.3%
5Y CAGR
+5.0%
10Y CAGR
+6.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.1x
vs 8.8x median
-99% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.0%
vs +2.8% median
+227% above peer median
Net Margin
9.4%
vs 1.4% median
+582% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TM TM Toyota Motor Corporation | $254.2B | 0.1x | +9.0% | 9.4% | Hold | -8.0% |
GM GM General Motors Company | $71.0B | 6.2x | +1.7% | 1.4% | Buy | +16.6% |
F F Ford Motor Company | $47.7B | 7.7x | +2.5% | -3.2% | Hold | +14.8% |
STL STLA Stellantis N.V. | $22.2B | 10.0x | +2.8% | -6.2% | Hold | +40.5% |
HMC HMC Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | $32.1B | — | +7.7% | 2.3% | Hold | +27.5% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.50T | 206.1x | +5.0% | 4.0% | Hold | +13.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TM Dividend and Capital Return
TM returns 5.8% annually — 2.83% through dividends and 3.0% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
5.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.0%
Dividend Yield
2.83%
Payout Ratio
23.8%
How TM Splits Its Return
Div 2.83%
Buyback 3.0%
Dividend 2.83%Buybacks 3.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$863.50
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
16.8%
5Y Div CAGR
8.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.18T
Estimated Shares Retired
6.0B
Approx. Share Reduction
461.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.3B
At 461.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $6.32 | +22.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2024 | $5.15 | +14.5% | 67.9% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $4.50 | +13.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $3.96 | -12.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2021 | $4.55 | +7.3% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsTM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $179, implying -8.0% from the current price of $195. The bear case scenario is $19884 and the bull case is $54874.
02What is the TM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TM is $179 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $179 (-8.0% from today), and the low-end target is $179 (-8.0%). The base case model target is $37566.
03Is Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) stock overvalued in 2026?
TM trades at 0.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TM in 2026 are: (1) Tariffs & Trade Policies — Tariffs and international trade changes, particularly those linked to geopolitics, can significantly increase costs and impact operating income. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions — Toyota’s operations are vulnerable to disruptions in its global supply chain caused by natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts, or supplier issues. (3) Electrification Shift — Rapid changes in consumer preferences, especially the shift toward electrified vehicles, pose a significant challenge. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Toyota Motor Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TM will report consensus revenue of $53.83T (+9.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $3884.74 (+9.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $58.71T in revenue.
06When does Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) report its next earnings?
Toyota Motor Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-08. Consensus expects EPS of $3.11 and revenue of $79.6B. Over recent quarters, TM has beaten EPS estimates 82% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Toyota Motor Corporation generate?
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) generated $147.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.3%. TM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($1.18T TTM).