Upside case
Bull case
$44520+25495.2%
TM would need investors to value it at roughly 15x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 0x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
16
analysts
6 bullish · 0 bearish · 16 covering TM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
10
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$179
+3.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$21287 – $44520
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $226.7B
TM price targets
Three scenarios for where TM stock could go
Current
~$174
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $174
Bear
$21287
Base
$33789
Bull
$44520
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$33789+19325.6%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$21287+12138.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push TM down roughly 12138% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Toyota Motor Corporation
TM · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersMarch year-end
Toyota is one of the world's largest automakers, manufacturing and selling vehicles across nearly every segment — from compact cars to luxury sedans and trucks. It generates most of its revenue from automotive sales (around 90%), supplemented by financial services (about 8%) that provide financing and leasing to customers. The company's key advantage is its legendary manufacturing efficiency — particularly the Toyota Production System — which delivers industry-leading quality and cost control while pioneering hybrid technology with its Prius platform.
Market Cap
$226.7B
Revenue TTM
$51.16T
Net Income TTM
$3.89T
Net Margin
7.6%
TM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+54.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.47/$4.67
Revenue
$84.6B/$82.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.85/$3.36
Revenue
$82.5B/$80.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$6.26/$4.35
Revenue
$85.8B/$83.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.00/$3.11
Revenue
$80.4B/$79.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.47/$4.67 | -4.3% | $84.6B/$82.4B | +2.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.85/$3.36 | +44.3% | $82.5B/$80.9B | +2.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.26/$4.35 | +43.9% | $85.8B/$83.0B | +3.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.00/$3.11 | +28.6% | $80.4B/$79.6B | +1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$55.35T
+8.2% YoY
FY2
$58.44T
+5.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3425.21
+14.9% YoY
FY2
$3776.02
+10.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$469.9B
FCF Margin: 0.9%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$4.46
Expected Revenue
$80.8B
TM beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $48.04T
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Vehicles
76.8%
+4.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
JAPAN
45.5%
+4.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Vehicles is the largest disclosed segment at 76.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.7% YoY.
JAPAN is the largest reported region at 45.5%, up 4.0% YoY.
TM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $27025 — implies +15436.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
15436.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TM
8.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
63% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
TM
8.9x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
58% discount
vs TM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
8.9x
vs
5Y Average
0.1x
+12632% premium
Forward PE
0.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
-100%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-100%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
8.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-63%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-58%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+12632%
PEG Ratio
0.61x
S&P 500
1.66x
-63%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
-33%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-32%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
-16%
5Y Avg
4.3x
+138%
Price/FCF
61.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+197%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+295%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+13455%
Price/Sales
0.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-78%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-3%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+10990%
Dividend Yield
3.61%
S&P 500
1.91%
+89%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
+66%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TM | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg TM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.1x | 18.8x-100% | 16.3x-100% | — |
| Trailing PE | 8.9x | 24.4x-63% | 21.2x-58% | 0.1x+12632% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.61x | 1.66x-63% | 0.92x-33% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.3x | 15.2x-32% | 12.2x-16% | 4.3x+138% |
| Price/FCF | 61.5x | 20.7x+197% | 15.6x+295% | 0.5x+13455% |
| Price/Sales | 0.7x | 3.1x-78% | 0.7x | 0.0x+10990% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.61% | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
TM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTM Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
TM returns 3.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$51.16T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
16.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2981.43
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$469.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$12.71T
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$30.68T
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
65.3× FCF
~65.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.7%
Dividend
3.6%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$42.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1007.95
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
32.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Sustainability concerns
Investor concerns over Toyota's sustainability efforts due to partnerships like Isuzu Motors for fuel cell electric trucks may negatively impact stock performance.
High Risk
Short-term market pressures
Toyota faces short-term pressures from tariffs, rising costs, and weak U.S. demand, which could affect financial performance.
Medium
Regulatory and financial risks
Factors such as tariffs and other regulatory challenges are discussed in Toyota's annual filings, indicating potential risks to financial position.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong product lineup
Toyota offers a diverse range of vehicles including trucks, cars, SUVs, hybrids, and minivans, catering to various customer preferences.
Bullish investor sentiment
There is notable bullish investment thesis on Toyota Motor Corporation, highlighting its potential for growth and value.
Robust dealership network
Toyota has a strong presence with dealerships like Toyota of Lake City in Seattle, ensuring wide market reach and customer access.
Comprehensive investor relations
Toyota provides detailed financial results, investor events, and news, maintaining transparency and attracting investors.
Historical dealership legacy
With dealerships like Bruce Broadus's in Washington state, Toyota has a long-standing reputation and trust in key markets.
Extensive SEC filings
MarketBeat offers comprehensive SEC filings for Toyota, providing investors with detailed financial data and reports.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$173.94
52W Range Position
8%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$167.18
+4.0% from the low
52-Week High
$248.90
-30.1% from the high
1 Month
-7.17%
3 Month
-16.82%
YTD
-20.2%
1 Year
-0.9%
3Y CAGR
+3.4%
5Y CAGR
-0.4%
10Y CAGR
+5.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.1x
vs 8.4x median
-99% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.2%
vs +4.9% median
+67% above peer median
Net Margin
7.6%
vs -2.0% median
+482% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TM TM Toyota Motor Corporation | $226.7B | 0.1x | +8.2% | 7.6% | Hold | +3.1% |
GM GM General Motors Company | $71.5B | 6.2x | +1.7% | 1.4% | Buy | +18.3% |
F F Ford Motor Company | $55.0B | 8.4x | +2.0% | -3.2% | Hold | +5.1% |
STL STLA Stellantis N.V. | $18.4B | 8.6x | +4.9% | -6.2% | Hold | +66.6% |
HMC HMC Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | $34.1B | 0.1x | +6.7% | -2.0% | Hold | +20.0% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.50T | 212.2x | +8.2% | 4.0% | Hold | +12.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TM Dividend and Capital Return
TM returns 3.7% total yield, led by a 3.61% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
3.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
3.61%
Payout Ratio
32.2%
How TM Splits Its Return
Div 3.61%
Dividend 3.61%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1007.95
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
16.8%
5Y Div CAGR
8.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$42.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
244M
Approx. Share Reduction
18.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.3B
At 18.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.13 | — | 15.8% | 100.0% |
| 2025 | $6.32 | +22.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2024 | $5.15 | +14.5% | 67.9% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $4.50 | +13.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $3.96 | -12.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsTM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $179, implying +3.1% from the current price of $174. The bear case scenario is $21287 and the bull case is $44520.
02What is the TM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TM is $179 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $179 (+3.1% from today), and the low-end target is $179 (+3.1%). The base case model target is $33789.
03Is Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) stock overvalued in 2026?
TM trades at 0.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TM in 2026 are: (1) Sustainability concerns — Investor concerns over Toyota's sustainability efforts due to partnerships like Isuzu Motors for fuel cell electric trucks may negatively impact stock performance. (2) Short-term market pressures — Toyota faces short-term pressures from tariffs, rising costs, and weak U. (3) Regulatory and financial risks — Factors such as tariffs and other regulatory challenges are discussed in Toyota's annual filings, indicating potential risks to financial position. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Toyota Motor Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TM will report consensus revenue of $55.35T (+8.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $3425.21 (+14.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $58.44T in revenue.
06When does Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) report its next earnings?
Toyota Motor Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $4.46 and revenue of $80.8B. Over recent quarters, TM has beaten EPS estimates 82% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Toyota Motor Corporation generate?
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) generated $469.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.9%. TM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.6% yield) and share repurchases ($42.4B TTM).