Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing MDGL more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
23
analysts
20 bullish · 1 bearish · 23 covering MDGL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
2
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$706
+30.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.4B
MDGL price targets
Three scenarios for where MDGL stock could go
Current
~$540
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
MDGL · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing therapies for metabolic and liver diseases. It generates no revenue currently but aims to commercialize its lead candidate resmetirom — a thyroid hormone receptor-ß agonist for NASH treatment — pending regulatory approval. The company's competitive advantage lies in its first-mover potential with resmetirom, which has shown promising Phase III results for a disease with no approved therapies.
Market Cap
$12.4B
Revenue TTM
$1.1B
Net Income TTM
-$309M
Net Margin
-27.3%
MDGL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
57%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-548.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-3.32/$-3.62
Revenue
$137M/$159M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-1.90/$-3.48
Revenue
$213M/$243M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-5.08/$-2.04
Revenue
$287M/$245M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-2.57/$0.04
Revenue
$321M/$313M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-3.32/$-3.62 | +8.3% | $137M/$159M | -13.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $-1.90/$-3.48 | +45.4% | $213M/$243M | -12.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $-5.08/$-2.04 | -149.4% | $287M/$245M | +17.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-2.57/$0.04 | -6525.0% | $321M/$313M | +2.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.1B
+54.4% YoY
FY2
$1.5B
+35.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-16.19
-25.9% YoY
FY2
$-17.49
-8.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$272M
FCF Margin: -24.1%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$-4.14
Expected Revenue
$301M
MDGL beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
MDGL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $958M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reportable Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Reportable Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
MDGL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $136 — implies -73.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
73.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MDGL
-42.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
266% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
MDGL
-42.0x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
290% discount
vs MDGL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-42.0x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Healthcare
19.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-42.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-266%
Healthcare
22.1x
-290%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Healthcare
14.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Healthcare
18.7x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
12.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+312%
Healthcare
2.8x
+354%
5Y Avg
25.0x
-48%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MDGL | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg MDGL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 19.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | -42.0x | 25.2x-266% | 22.1x-290% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 14.1x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 18.7x | — |
| Price/Sales | 12.9x | 3.1x+312% | 2.8x+354% | 25.0x-48% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
MDGL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMDGL Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for MDGL are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+256.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
93.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-27.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-27.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-10.66
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$272M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-24.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-29.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-25.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$199M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$156M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-50.2%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-29.4%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
23M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMDGL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Financial Performance and Profitability
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals continues to operate with a negative profit margin and a deeply negative EPS, having incurred losses since its inception. Although Rezdiffra sales are narrowing losses, profitability remains elusive, with operating expenses outpacing revenue growth, and analysts forecast a path to profitability within three years reliant on significant margin improvement.
High Risk
Valuation
MDGL's valuation is considered 'Ultra Expensive' by some metrics, with the stock's price already incorporating substantial future value. This makes it sensitive to any delays in commercialization milestones or market disappointments, as investors are paying a premium for future hopes rather than current earnings.
Medium
Market Penetration and Competition
Rezdiffra, while the first FDA-approved medication for MASH with moderate to advanced fibrosis, faces challenges in market penetration. Sales growth has been moderate, with risks including potential competition, failure to gain broad medical community support, and possible legal challenges.
Medium
Regulatory and Reimbursement Uncertainty
The success of Rezdiffra is not guaranteed, and future reimbursement from healthcare providers poses a risk. Regulatory developments and clinical milestones are crucial for the company's prospects, adding uncertainty to its financial outlook.
Medium
Operational and Execution Risks
Madrigal faces execution risks, with rising operating expenses, including SG&A and R&D costs, expected to continue. There is a lack of near-term, company-specific catalysts to support prior rallies, which could impact investor sentiment.
Lower
Pipeline and Development Risks
Madrigal has a pipeline of MASH-focused programs, but these represent future bets with inherent development risks. The success of these future therapies is not guaranteed, adding uncertainty to the company's long-term growth prospects.
Lower
Analyst Sentiment and Market Perception
Some analysts have issued 'Sell' ratings due to high valuation and intensifying competition, while the consensus rating is generally 'Buy'. The stock has experienced significant volatility, with sharp retreats from its highs, indicating mixed market sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MDGL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Rezdiffra's Commercial Success
Rezdiffra achieved nearly $1 billion in net sales in its first year on the market, with strong revenue growth and expanding payer access. In 2025, revenue reached $958.4 million, a substantial increase from the previous year, with approximately 36,250 patients on Rezdiffra by the end of 2025.
Market Potential
The MASH market is rapidly expanding, and Rezdiffra has significant room for growth, with current market penetration being low. Analysts have revised price targets higher, with some valuing the stock at $671.07, indicating it is undervalued.
Pipeline and Future Growth
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals has a robust pipeline, including new combination therapies and a new oral GLP-1. The company has also made several in-licensing deals to acquire potential MASH therapeutics for combination development with resmetirom, with international growth expected to accelerate from 2027 onward.
Financial Flexibility
Madrigal secured a $500 million credit facility from Blue Owl Capital, providing non-dilutive financing to advance its pipeline and support market expansion.
Technical Analysis
Technical indicators suggest positive long and short-term trends, with the stock outperforming a significant portion of other stocks over the past year. The stock is showing a bull flag pattern, which can indicate a potential entry opportunity.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MDGL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$539.73
52W Range Position
78%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$265.00
+103.7% from the low
52-Week High
$615.00
-12.2% from the high
1 Month
+1.10%
3 Month
+13.01%
YTD
-9.1%
1 Year
+82.9%
3Y CAGR
+20.4%
5Y CAGR
+33.6%
10Y CAGR
+44.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MDGL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 53.9x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+54.4%
vs +39.1% median
+39% above peer median
Net Margin
-27.3%
vs 5.5% median
-600% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MDG MDGL Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $12.4B | — | +54.4% | -27.3% | Buy | +30.7% |
AKR AKRO Akero Therapeutics, Inc. | $4.5B | — | — | — | Buy | -11.4% |
HIM HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. | $6.9B | 53.9x | +39.1% | 5.5% | Hold | +10.4% |
ELV ELVN Enliven Therapeutics, Inc. | $2.4B | — | — | — | Buy | +5.2% |
TER TERN Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $4.6B | — | — | — | Buy | +4.9% |
GPC GPCR Structure Therapeutics Inc. | $2.4B | — | — | — | Buy | +181.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsMDGL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $706, implying +30.7% from the current price of $540.
02What is the MDGL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MDGL is $706 based on 23 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $964 (+78.6% from today), and the low-end target is $527 (-2.4%).
03Is Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for MDGL is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MDGL in 2026 are: (1) Financial Performance and Profitability — Madrigal Pharmaceuticals continues to operate with a negative profit margin and a deeply negative EPS, having incurred losses since its inception. (2) Valuation — MDGL's valuation is considered 'Ultra Expensive' by some metrics, with the stock's price already incorporating substantial future value. (3) Market Penetration and Competition — Rezdiffra, while the first FDA-approved medication for MASH with moderate to advanced fibrosis, faces challenges in market penetration. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MDGL will report consensus revenue of $1.1B (+54.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $-16.19 (-25.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.5B in revenue.
06When does Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) report its next earnings?
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $-4.14 and revenue of $301M. Over recent quarters, MDGL has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. generate?
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) had a free cash outflow of $272M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 24.1%. MDGL returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).