Upside case
Bull case
$151+90.4%
MDT would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Medtronic plc (MDT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
51
analysts
30 bullish · 0 bearish · 51 covering MDT
Strong Buy
1
Buy
29
Hold
21
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$96
+20.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$72 – $151
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $101.9B
MDT price targets
Three scenarios for where MDT stock could go
Current
~$79
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $79
Bear
$72
Base
$115
Bull
$151
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$115+44.5%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$72-9.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push MDT down roughly 9% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Medtronic plc
MDT · NYSEHealthcareMedical - DevicesApril year-end
Medtronic is a global medical device company that develops and manufactures implantable devices and therapies for chronic diseases. It generates revenue primarily from its cardiovascular portfolio — including pacemakers, defibrillators, and heart valves — and its medical surgical portfolio, which includes surgical robotics, stapling devices, and patient monitoring systems. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive patent portfolio, deep clinical expertise, and established relationships with healthcare providers that create high switching costs.
Market Cap
$101.9B
Revenue TTM
$35.5B
Net Income TTM
$4.6B
Net Margin
13.0%
MDT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.26/$1.23
Revenue
$8.6B/$8.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.36/$1.31
Revenue
$9.0B/$8.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.36/$1.34
Revenue
$9.0B/$8.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.55/$1.54
Revenue
$9.8B/$9.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.26/$1.23 | +2.4% | $8.6B/$8.4B | +2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.36/$1.31 | +3.8% | $9.0B/$8.9B | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.36/$1.34 | +1.5% | $9.0B/$8.9B | +1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.55/$1.54 | +0.6% | $9.8B/$9.6B | +1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$38.3B
+7.9% YoY
FY2
$40.8B
+6.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.82
+34.7% YoY
FY2
$5.16
+7.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.4B
FCF Margin: 15.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MDT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MDT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $33.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Cardiac and Vascular Group
37.3%
+5.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
51.2%
+3.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Cardiac and Vascular Group is the largest disclosed segment at 37.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 51.2%, up 3.7% YoY.
MDT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $84 — implies +5.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
5.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MDT
22.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
10% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
MDT
22.0x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
In line with benchmark
vs MDT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.0x
vs
5Y Average
32.4x
32% discount
Forward PE
13.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
-29%
Healthcare
18.3x
-27%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
-10%
Healthcare
22.1x
-1%
5Y Avg
32.4x
-32%
PEG Ratio
33.92x
S&P 500
1.66x
+1944%
Healthcare
1.59x
+2033%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-4%
Healthcare
14.2x
+2%
5Y Avg
19.3x
-25%
Price/FCF
19.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-5%
Healthcare
18.5x
+6%
5Y Avg
25.6x
-23%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-2%
Healthcare
2.6x
+15%
5Y Avg
4.2x
-27%
Dividend Yield
3.51%
S&P 500
1.91%
+83%
Healthcare
1.50%
+134%
5Y Avg
2.77%
+27%
| Metric | MDT | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg MDT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.3x | 18.8x-29% | 18.3x-27% | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.0x | 24.4x-10% | 22.1x | 32.4x-32% |
| PEG Ratio | 33.92x | 1.66x+1944% | 1.59x+2033% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.5x | 15.2x | 14.2x | 19.3x-25% |
| Price/FCF | 19.6x | 20.7x | 18.5x | 25.6x-23% |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 2.6x+15% | 4.2x-27% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.51% | 1.91% | 1.50% | 2.77% |
MDT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMDT Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MDT generates $5.4B in free cash flow at a 15.2% margin — returns 6.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$35.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
61.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.58
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$26.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.9× FCF
~4.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.7%
Dividend
3.5%
Buyback
3.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.78
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
77.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMDT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
MiniMed separation execution
The planned separation of the MiniMed business carries execution risks, though management expects it to be accretive to earnings and supportive of margin expansion.
Medium
Competitive positioning
Analysts highlight competitive positioning as a key factor in Medtronic's performance, with potential risks from rivals in the medical device sector.
Lower
Revenue growth trends
Revenue growth trends are a consideration for analysts, with potential risks if growth fails to meet expectations in the healthcare technology sector.
Medium
Margin expansion uncertainty
Post-MiniMed separation margin expansion is anticipated but not guaranteed, introducing uncertainty into the company's financial outlook.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MDT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Global medical technology leader
Medtronic is a global leader in medical technology, services, and solutions, collaborating to address healthcare challenges.
Wide moat business
Medtronic's strong competitive positioning and wide moat support its long-term business resilience and growth.
Innovation-driven growth
The company's innovation pipeline, including products like the Stealth AXiS surgical system, drives future growth opportunities.
Strategic focus on high-growth areas
Medtronic is rebalancing its portfolio to focus on high-growth segments like RDN, PFA, and surgical robotics.
Strong financial outlook
Medtronic's 2026-2031 outlook and high-margin business model support long-term capital appreciation.
Advanced product portfolio
Products like the MiniMed Flex Insulin Pump and Simplera Sync demonstrate Medtronic's advanced medical device offerings.
Neurovascular and heart care leadership
Medtronic has a strong legacy in pacemakers, heart care, and neurovascular health, supported by a 100-year vision.
Structural changes supporting growth
Recent structural changes and strategic initiatives are expected to enhance Medtronic's growth trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MDT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$79.34
52W Range Position
18%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$73.31
+8.2% from the low
52-Week High
$106.33
-25.4% from the high
1 Month
+2.61%
3 Month
-9.02%
YTD
-17.4%
1 Year
-7.5%
3Y CAGR
-3.7%
5Y CAGR
-8.4%
10Y CAGR
-0.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MDT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.3x
vs 16.1x median
-18% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.9%
vs +9.8% median
-19% below peer median
Net Margin
13.0%
vs 14.4% median
-10% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MDT MDT Medtronic plc | $101.9B | 13.3x | +7.9% | 13.0% | Buy | +20.7% |
ABT ABT Abbott Laboratories | $153.7B | 16.1x | +9.9% | 31.9% | Buy | +44.2% |
BSX BSX Boston Scientific Corporation | $67.3B | 13.5x | +9.7% | 14.4% | Buy | +83.0% |
EW EW Edwards Lifesciences Corporation | $50.4B | 29.0x | +9.8% | 17.6% | Buy | +10.5% |
SYK SYK Stryker Corporation | $117.9B | 20.5x | +10.1% | 12.9% | Buy | +25.9% |
ZBH ZBH Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | $17.2B | 10.4x | +4.2% | 9.1% | Hold | +9.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MDT Dividend and Capital Return
MDT returns 6.7% total yield, led by a 3.51% dividend, raised 44 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 3.2%.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
6.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.2%
Dividend Yield
3.51%
Payout Ratio
77.0%
How MDT Splits Its Return
Div 3.51%
Buyback 3.2%
Dividend 3.51%Buybacks 3.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.78
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
44Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.0%
5Y Div CAGR
4.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
41M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.3B
At 3.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.43 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.83 | +1.4% | 3.0% | 6.2% |
| 2024 | $2.79 | +1.5% | 2.0% | 5.4% |
| 2023 | $2.75 | +3.0% | 0.5% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $2.67 | +8.1% | 1.8% | 4.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsMDT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Medtronic plc (MDT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Medtronic plc (MDT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 30 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $96, implying +20.7% from the current price of $79. The bear case scenario is $72 and the bull case is $151.
02What is the MDT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MDT is $96 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $119 (+50.0% from today), and the low-end target is $80 (+0.8%). The base case model target is $115.
03Is Medtronic plc (MDT) stock overvalued in 2026?
MDT trades at 13.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Medtronic plc (MDT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MDT in 2026 are: (1) MiniMed separation execution — The planned separation of the MiniMed business carries execution risks, though management expects it to be accretive to earnings and supportive of margin expansion. (2) Competitive positioning — Analysts highlight competitive positioning as a key factor in Medtronic's performance, with potential risks from rivals in the medical device sector. (3) Margin expansion uncertainty — Post-MiniMed separation margin expansion is anticipated but not guaranteed, introducing uncertainty into the company's financial outlook. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Medtronic plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MDT will report consensus revenue of $38.3B (+7.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.82 (+34.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $40.8B in revenue.
06When does Medtronic plc (MDT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MDT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Medtronic plc generate?
Medtronic plc (MDT) generated $5.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.2%. MDT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.5% yield) and share repurchases ($3.2B TTM).