Upside case
Bull case
$125+60.8%
MDT would need investors to value it at roughly 23x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Medtronic plc (MDT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
49
analysts
27 bullish · 0 bearish · 49 covering MDT
Strong Buy
1
Buy
26
Hold
22
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$110
+40.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$64 – $125
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
49
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $99.7B
MDT price targets
Three scenarios for where MDT stock could go
Current
~$78
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $78
Bear
$64
Base
$102
Bull
$125
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$102+31.3%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$64-17.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push MDT down roughly 18% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Medtronic plc
MDT · NYSEHealthcareMedical - DevicesApril year-end
Medtronic is a global medical device company that develops and manufactures implantable devices and therapies for chronic diseases. It generates revenue primarily from its cardiovascular portfolio — including pacemakers, defibrillators, and heart valves — and its medical surgical portfolio, which includes surgical robotics, stapling devices, and patient monitoring systems. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive patent portfolio, deep clinical expertise, and established relationships with healthcare providers that create high switching costs.
Market Cap
$99.7B
Revenue TTM
$35.5B
Net Income TTM
$4.6B
Net Margin
13.0%
MDT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.62/$1.58
Revenue
$8.9B/$8.8B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.26/$1.23
Revenue
$8.6B/$8.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.36/$1.31
Revenue
$9.0B/$8.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.36/$1.34
Revenue
$9.0B/$8.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.62/$1.58 | +2.5% | $8.9B/$8.8B | +1.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.26/$1.23 | +2.4% | $8.6B/$8.4B | +2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.36/$1.31 | +3.8% | $9.0B/$8.9B | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.36/$1.34 | +1.5% | $9.0B/$8.9B | +1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$36.4B
+2.5% YoY
FY2
$37.9B
+4.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.54
+26.9% YoY
FY2
$4.74
+4.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.4B
FCF Margin: 15.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MDT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MDT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $33.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Cardiac and Vascular Group
37.3%
+5.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
51.2%
+3.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Cardiac and Vascular Group is the largest disclosed segment at 37.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 51.2%, up 3.7% YoY.
MDT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $97 — implies +20.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
20.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MDT
21.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
14% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
MDT
21.5x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
In line with benchmark
vs MDT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.5x
vs
5Y Average
32.4x
33% discount
Forward PE
14.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-26%
Healthcare
18.8x
-25%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-14%
Healthcare
22.2x
-3%
5Y Avg
32.4x
-33%
PEG Ratio
35.93x
S&P 500
1.72x
+1994%
Healthcare
1.53x
+2252%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-6%
Healthcare
14.0x
+2%
5Y Avg
19.3x
-26%
Price/FCF
19.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
-9%
Healthcare
18.6x
+4%
5Y Avg
25.6x
-25%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-5%
Healthcare
2.8x
+6%
5Y Avg
4.2x
-28%
Dividend Yield
3.58%
S&P 500
1.87%
+91%
Healthcare
1.42%
+152%
5Y Avg
2.77%
+29%
| Metric | MDT | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg MDT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.1x | 19.1x-26% | 18.8x-25% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.5x | 25.1x-14% | 22.2x | 32.4x-33% |
| PEG Ratio | 35.93x | 1.72x+1994% | 1.53x+2252% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.3x | 15.2x | 14.0x | 19.3x-26% |
| Price/FCF | 19.2x | 21.1x | 18.6x | 25.6x-25% |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 2.8x | 4.2x-28% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.58% | 1.87% | 1.42% | 2.77% |
MDT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMDT Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MDT generates $5.4B in free cash flow at a 15.2% margin — returns 6.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$35.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
61.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.58
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
175.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$26.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.9× FCF
~4.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.8%
Dividend
3.6%
Buyback
3.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.78
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
77.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMDT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt Obligations & Cash Flow
Medtronic carries significant debt obligations that require a portion of its operating cash flow for interest and principal payments. This can limit available capital for expansion, R&D, and other corporate initiatives, potentially constraining growth and shareholder returns.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Geopolitical tensions and conflicts pose a risk of disrupting Medtronic’s supply chains, which could lead to sales shortfalls and increased volatility. Such disruptions may delay product availability and inflate operating costs, negatively impacting earnings.
High Risk
Regulatory Compliance Risks
The company operates under stringent medical device regulations, including the EU MDR, and faces FDA oversight. Recent recalls, such as the Pipeline Vantage embolization device, illustrate the financial and reputational costs of non‑compliance and regulatory delays.
Medium
Product Quality Control
Inadequate quality control systems and failures in risk assessment can trigger regulatory investigations and product approval delays. These events may result in costly recalls, legal liabilities, and loss of market share.
Medium
Competitive Landscape
Medtronic competes with established and emerging players, leading to pricing pressures and the need for continuous innovation. Intense competition can erode margins and slow revenue growth if the company cannot maintain a technological edge.
Medium
Tariff Impact on Earnings
Potential increases in tariff rates on imported components or finished products could reduce profitability. Estimates suggest that higher tariffs could materially affect earnings per share, especially in core markets.
Lower
Currency Fluctuation Exposure
Medtronic’s consolidated revenues are exposed to currency fluctuations in its core markets, which can affect reported earnings. Volatility in foreign exchange rates may lead to unpredictable financial performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MDT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Diversified Business Segments
Medtronic operates across cardiovascular, medical surgical, neuroscience, and diabetes markets, spreading risk and allowing it to capture growth in multiple healthcare sectors. This cross‑segment exposure reduces dependence on any single market and supports steady revenue streams.
Robust Innovation Pipeline
The company invests heavily in R&D, yielding a strong pipeline of new products and recent FDA approvals, including robotics, AI tools, and specialized devices. For instance, the Cranial & Spinal Technologies segment saw accelerated growth driven by capital sales in neurosurgery, robotics, and navigation systems, while Cardiac Ablation Solutions grew with Pulsed Field Ablation (PFA) products.
Strategic Diabetes Spin‑Off
Medtronic plans to spin off its diabetes business, streamlining operations and sharpening focus on higher‑margin core segments. This move is expected to unlock shareholder value by creating a more concentrated, high‑growth entity.
Strong FY24 Financial Growth
Q4 FY24 worldwide revenue rose 5.4% organically, cash from operations increased 12%, and free cash flow grew 14%. The company also marked its 47th consecutive year of dividend increases, underscoring a commitment to shareholder returns.
Institutional Investor Confidence
A majority of institutional investors own Medtronic shares and have been accumulating them, indicating confidence in the company’s growth outlook. Analysts maintain a bullish consensus rating, and the median price target suggests significant upside from the current stock price.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MDT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$77.79
52W Range Position
1%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$77.39
+0.5% from the low
52-Week High
$106.33
-26.8% from the high
1 Month
-9.84%
3 Month
-24.44%
YTD
-19.0%
1 Year
-6.8%
3Y CAGR
-4.8%
5Y CAGR
-9.3%
10Y CAGR
-0.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MDT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.1x
vs 16.6x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.5%
vs +9.9% median
-75% below peer median
Net Margin
13.0%
vs 14.4% median
-10% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MDT MDT Medtronic plc | $99.7B | 14.1x | +2.5% | 13.0% | Buy | +40.8% |
ABT ABT Abbott Laboratories | $151.6B | 15.9x | +9.3% | 31.9% | Buy | +47.6% |
BSX BSX Boston Scientific Corporation | $83.2B | 16.6x | +12.8% | 14.4% | Buy | +63.1% |
EW EW Edwards Lifesciences Corporation | $47.8B | 27.6x | +9.9% | 17.6% | Buy | +16.4% |
SYK SYK Stryker Corporation | $113.1B | 19.7x | +9.9% | 12.9% | Buy | +36.7% |
ZBH ZBH Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | $16.3B | 9.8x | +3.8% | 9.1% | Hold | +17.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MDT Dividend and Capital Return
MDT returns 6.8% total yield, led by a 3.58% dividend, raised 36 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 3.2%.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
6.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.2%
Dividend Yield
3.58%
Payout Ratio
77.0%
How MDT Splits Its Return
Div 3.58%
Buyback 3.2%
Dividend 3.58%Buybacks 3.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.78
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
36Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.0%
5Y Div CAGR
4.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
42M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.3B
At 3.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.83 | +1.4% | 3.0% | 6.2% |
| 2024 | $2.79 | +1.5% | 2.0% | 5.4% |
| 2023 | $2.75 | +3.0% | 0.5% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $2.67 | +8.1% | 1.8% | 4.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsMDT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Medtronic plc (MDT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Medtronic plc (MDT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 49 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 22 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $110, implying +40.8% from the current price of $78. The bear case scenario is $64 and the bull case is $125.
02What is the MDT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MDT is $110 based on 49 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $120 (+54.3% from today), and the low-end target is $95 (+22.1%). The base case model target is $102.
03Is Medtronic plc (MDT) stock overvalued in 2026?
MDT trades at 14.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Medtronic plc (MDT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MDT in 2026 are: (1) Debt Obligations & Cash Flow — Medtronic carries significant debt obligations that require a portion of its operating cash flow for interest and principal payments. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions — Geopolitical tensions and conflicts pose a risk of disrupting Medtronic’s supply chains, which could lead to sales shortfalls and increased volatility. (3) Regulatory Compliance Risks — The company operates under stringent medical device regulations, including the EU MDR, and faces FDA oversight. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Medtronic plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MDT will report consensus revenue of $36.4B (+2.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.54 (+26.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $37.9B in revenue.
06When does Medtronic plc (MDT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MDT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Medtronic plc generate?
Medtronic plc (MDT) generated $5.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.2%. MDT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.6% yield) and share repurchases ($3.2B TTM).