Upside case
Bull case
$968+126.8%
MEDP would need investors to value it at roughly 57x earnings — about 32x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
19
analysts
6 bullish · 1 bearish · 19 covering MEDP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$499
+16.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$360 – $968
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.2B
MEDP price targets
Three scenarios for where MEDP stock could go
Current
~$427
Confidence
74 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $427
Bear
$360
Base
$686
Bull
$968
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$686+60.8%
At 40x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$360-15.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push MEDP down roughly 16% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Medpace Holdings, Inc.
MEDP · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchDecember year-end
Medpace is a clinical research organization that provides comprehensive drug and medical device development services from early-stage trials through post-marketing support. It generates revenue primarily through service fees from pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device companies — with contributions from clinical trial management, regulatory affairs, data analysis, and laboratory services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its full-service, integrated model that offers clients a single point of accountability across the entire clinical development continuum.
Market Cap
$12.2B
Revenue TTM
$2.7B
Net Income TTM
$460M
Net Margin
17.2%
MEDP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+12.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.10/$2.98
Revenue
$603M/$539M
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.86/$3.53
Revenue
$660M/$641M
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.67/$4.19
Revenue
$708M/$689M
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.28/$3.74
Revenue
$707M/$698M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.10/$2.98 | +4.0% | $603M/$539M | +12.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.86/$3.53 | +9.3% | $660M/$641M | +2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.67/$4.19 | +11.5% | $708M/$689M | +2.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.28/$3.74 | +14.4% | $707M/$698M | +1.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.1B
+15.4% YoY
FY2
$3.7B
+18.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$19.58
+23.2% YoY
FY2
$24.57
+25.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$745M
FCF Margin: 27.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MEDP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MEDP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oncology
29.5%
+14.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Oncology is the largest disclosed segment at 29.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 14.8% YoY.
MEDP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $417 — implies -0.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MEDP
27.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+11% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
MEDP
27.9x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+26% premium
vs MEDP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.9x
vs
5Y Average
34.4x
19% discount
Forward PE
25.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+32%
Healthcare
19.0x
+32%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
+11%
Healthcare
22.1x
+26%
5Y Avg
34.4x
-19%
PEG Ratio
0.88x
S&P 500
1.75x
-50%
Healthcare
1.52x
-42%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+39%
Healthcare
14.1x
+50%
5Y Avg
27.4x
-23%
Price/FCF
17.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
-16%
Healthcare
18.7x
-4%
5Y Avg
24.6x
-27%
Price/Sales
4.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+54%
Healthcare
2.8x
+69%
5Y Avg
5.8x
-17%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MEDP | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg MEDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.1x | 19.1x+32% | 19.0x+32% | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.9x | 25.2x+11% | 22.1x+26% | 34.4x-19% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.88x | 1.75x-50% | 1.52x-42% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.2x | 15.3x+39% | 14.1x+50% | 27.4x-23% |
| Price/FCF | 17.9x | 21.3x-16% | 18.7x | 24.6x-27% |
| Price/Sales | 4.8x | 3.1x+54% | 2.8x+69% | 5.8x-17% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
MEDP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMEDP Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MEDP generates $745M in free cash flow at a 27.8% margin — 154.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 7.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+24.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
29.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
21.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$15.90
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$745M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
27.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
154.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
24.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$497M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$247M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
120.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
7.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$917M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
29M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMEDP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Backlog Conversion Risks
Medpace Holdings reported a sub-1.0 net book-to-bill ratio of 0.88x in Q1 2026, indicating that new bookings fell short of recognized revenue. This trend raises concerns about future backlog growth and revenue sustainability, particularly following a similar ratio of 1.04x in Q4 2025 and an increase in project cancellations.
High Risk
Legal Risks
The company is currently facing multiple shareholder class-action lawsuits alleging false and misleading statements regarding its book-to-bill ratio and backlog cancellation rates. These lawsuits introduce significant legal overhang and uncertainty regarding management's projections.
High Risk
Leadership Uncertainty
The announced retirement of Medpace's president has introduced leadership uncertainty, which could impact strategic direction and operational stability. This change comes at a critical time when the company is facing multiple challenges.
Medium
Operational Disruptions
Medpace is subject to risks associated with pandemics, epidemics, or widespread health emergencies that could disrupt business operations. Such disruptions could adversely affect revenue and operational efficiency.
Medium
Pricing Pressure
The company may experience decreased operating margins due to pricing pressure or other factors, which could impact profitability. This risk is heightened in a competitive market where pricing strategies are critical.
Medium
Customer Non-payment
There is a risk of loss, delay, or non-renewal of contracts, or non-payment by customers for services performed. Such occurrences could negatively affect cash flow and revenue predictability.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Some analyses suggest that Medpace may be overvalued based on certain metrics, while others indicate it is undervalued due to recent price drops. This discrepancy could lead to volatility in stock performance.
Lower
Slower Growth
Earnings growth forecasts for Medpace are below those for the broader US market, which could impact its ability to command higher multiples. This slower growth trajectory may hinder investor confidence.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MEDP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Performance
Medpace has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with Q4 2025 revenue increasing by 32% year-over-year. For the full year 2025, revenue reached $2.53 billion, marking a 20% increase from the previous year, alongside substantial growth in net income and EBITDA.
Effective Capital Allocation
The company has a history of rewarding shareholders through share repurchases, actively buying back shares when the stock price is perceived as below intrinsic value. This strategy can drive earnings per share (EPS) growth, enhancing shareholder value.
Robust Book-to-Bill Ratio
Medpace has consistently reported a book-to-bill ratio above 1, indicating it receives more new business than it bills for. This trend reflects a healthy pipeline and strong demand for its services, despite some fluctuations in net new business awards.
Leading Industry Position
As a full-service CRO, Medpace provides comprehensive clinical development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device sectors. Its focus on complex and highly regulated areas, such as oncology and CNS disorders, positions it well within a growing market for outsourced clinical research.
Positive Earnings Growth Projections
Analysts project positive future earnings growth for Medpace, with expectations for annual growth. While ratings are mixed, several analysts believe the stock is undervalued, suggesting significant upside potential based on fair value estimates.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MEDP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$426.79
52W Range Position
41%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$284.10
+50.2% from the low
52-Week High
$628.92
-32.1% from the high
1 Month
-13.95%
3 Month
-21.26%
YTD
-25.3%
1 Year
+47.8%
3Y CAGR
+26.8%
5Y CAGR
+21.1%
10Y CAGR
+31.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MEDP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.1x
vs 16.4x median
+53% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.4%
vs +4.7% median
+224% above peer median
Net Margin
17.2%
vs 6.0% median
+185% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MED MEDP Medpace Holdings, Inc. | $12.2B | 25.1x | +15.4% | 17.2% | Hold | +16.9% |
ICL ICLR ICON Public Limited Company | $9.5B | 10.5x | +5.9% | 7.4% | Buy | +20.5% |
CRL CRL Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. | $9.0B | 16.4x | +0.2% | -3.6% | Buy | +13.0% |
PRA PRA ProAssurance Corporation | $1.3B | 21.8x | -3.5% | 6.0% | Hold | -25.5% |
HIM HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. | $6.9B | 53.9x | +39.1% | 5.5% | Hold | +10.4% |
IQV IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. | $29.9B | 13.9x | +4.7% | 8.3% | Buy | +27.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MEDP Dividend and Capital Return
MEDP returns 7.5% annually — null% through dividends and 7.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
7.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
7.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$917M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
29M
At 7.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsMEDP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $499, implying +16.9% from the current price of $427. The bear case scenario is $360 and the bull case is $968.
02What is the MEDP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MEDP is $499 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $582 (+36.4% from today), and the low-end target is $400 (-6.3%). The base case model target is $686.
03Is Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) stock overvalued in 2026?
MEDP trades at 25.1x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MEDP in 2026 are: (1) Backlog Conversion Risks — Medpace Holdings reported a sub-1. (2) Legal Risks — The company is currently facing multiple shareholder class-action lawsuits alleging false and misleading statements regarding its book-to-bill ratio and backlog cancellation rates. (3) Leadership Uncertainty — The announced retirement of Medpace's president has introduced leadership uncertainty, which could impact strategic direction and operational stability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MEDP will report consensus revenue of $3.1B (+15.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $19.58 (+23.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.7B in revenue.
06When does Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MEDP is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Medpace Holdings, Inc. generate?
Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) generated $745M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 27.8%. MEDP returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($917M TTM).