Upside case
Bull case
$552+278.3%
ICLR would need investors to value it at roughly 52x earnings — about 39x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
ICON Public Limited Company (ICLR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
30
analysts
15 bullish · 2 bearish · 30 covering ICLR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
13
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$140
-4.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$264 – $552
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
30
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.2B
ICLR price targets
Three scenarios for where ICLR stock could go
Current
~$146
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $146
Bear
$264
Base
$419
Bull
$552
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$419+187.1%
At 40x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$264+80.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push ICLR down roughly 81% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
ICON Public Limited Company
ICLR · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchDecember year-end
ICON is a global contract research organization that provides outsourced clinical trial services to pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device companies. It generates revenue primarily from clinical development services — including early-phase studies, patient recruitment, data management, and late-phase research — which account for the vast majority of its income. The company's competitive advantage lies in its global scale, integrated technology platform, and deep therapeutic expertise that creates switching costs for clients conducting complex, multi-year trials.
Market Cap
$11.2B
Revenue TTM
$8.2B
Net Income TTM
$489M
Net Margin
6.0%
ICLR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-2.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q2 2026
Q2 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$3.31/$3.28
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.28/$3.19
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.52/$3.13
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.52/$2.95
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.31/$3.28 | +0.9% | $2.0B/$2.0B | +3.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.28/$3.19 | +2.8% | $2.0B/$2.0B | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.52/$3.13 | -19.5% | $2.1B/$2.0B | +6.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.52/$2.95 | -14.6% | $2.1B/$2.0B | +6.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.8B
+7.3% YoY
FY2
$9.2B
+4.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.32
+34.5% YoY
FY2
$9.32
+12.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 16.4%
Next Earnings
July 22, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.01
Expected Revenue
$2.0B
ICLR beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ICLR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
IRELAND
38.6%
+14.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
IRELAND is the largest reported region at 38.6%, up 14.0% YoY.
ICLR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $203 — implies +39.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
39.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ICLR
50.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+106% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ICLR
50.3x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+128% premium
vs ICLR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
50.3x
vs
5Y Average
58.5x
14% discount
Forward PE
13.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-26%
Healthcare
18.3x
-24%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
50.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+106%
Healthcare
22.1x
+128%
5Y Avg
58.5x
-14%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-34%
Healthcare
14.2x
-29%
5Y Avg
18.5x
-45%
Price/FCF
13.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
-37%
Healthcare
18.5x
-30%
5Y Avg
24.4x
-47%
Price/Sales
1.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-56%
Healthcare
2.6x
-49%
5Y Avg
2.5x
-46%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ICLR | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ICLR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.8x | 18.8x-26% | 18.3x-24% | — |
| Trailing PE | 50.3x | 24.4x+106% | 22.1x+128% | 58.5x-14% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1x | 15.2x-34% | 14.2x-29% | 18.5x-45% |
| Price/FCF | 13.0x | 20.7x-37% | 18.5x-30% | 24.4x-47% |
| Price/Sales | 1.4x | 3.1x-56% | 2.6x-49% | 2.5x-46% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
ICLR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolICLR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ICLR generates $1.3B in free cash flow at a 16.4% margin — returns 6.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
25.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.19
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
16.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$647M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.2× FCF
~2.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.7%
Dividend
—
Buyback
6.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$750M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
77M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageICLR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Accounting scrutiny
Recent revelations of accounting scrutiny have heightened volatility and overshadowed ICON's position as a leading clinical research organization.
Medium
Valuation de-rating
The bear case price target of $52 implies significant downside risk due to potential P/E multiple compression and revenue/margin uncertainties.
Lower
Market volatility
ICLR stock has experienced heightened volatility in recent trading sessions, reflecting investor concerns beyond fundamental performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ICLR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Book-to-bill recovery
Book-to-bill ratio recovers to 1.2x+ in 2026-2027, driving backlog and revenue re-acceleration toward 5% organic growth.
EPS growth potential
Combined with buybacks, margin improvement, and intangible amortization burn-down, the company projects $15+ adj. EPS by FY 2028.
Valuation re-rating
The bullish case supports a re-rating to 12-15x forward earnings, implying a stock price range of $180-$225.
Strong financial metrics
ICLR's trailing and forward P/E ratios were 19.57 and 13.21 respectively, indicating potential undervaluation relative to growth prospects.
Revenue growth trajectory
Modest revenue growth reported in Q4 and full-year 2025, with expectations of acceleration driven by backlog and operational improvements.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ICLR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$146.00
52W Range Position
55%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$66.57
+119.3% from the low
52-Week High
$211.00
-30.8% from the high
1 Month
+28.32%
3 Month
+50.30%
YTD
-22.6%
1 Year
+1.7%
3Y CAGR
-14.1%
5Y CAGR
-7.2%
10Y CAGR
+8.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ICLR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.8x
vs 16.7x median
-17% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.3%
vs +5.7% median
+28% above peer median
Net Margin
6.0%
vs 6.7% median
-10% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ICL ICLR ICON Public Limited Company | $11.2B | 13.8x | +7.3% | 6.0% | Buy | -4.2% |
CRL CRL Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. | $8.9B | 16.7x | +3.7% | -4.6% | Buy | +15.8% |
IQV IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. | $28.5B | 13.1x | +5.7% | 8.3% | Buy | +30.8% |
MED MEDP Medpace Holdings, Inc. | $13.1B | 27.1x | +9.8% | 17.2% | Hold | +8.4% |
PRA PRA ProAssurance Corporation | $1.3B | 20.1x | +2.0% | 6.0% | Hold | -25.6% |
LH LH Labcorp Holdings Inc. | $21.1B | 14.2x | +5.8% | 6.7% | Buy | +21.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ICLR Dividend and Capital Return
ICLR returns 6.7% annually — null% through dividends and 6.7% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
6.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.7%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$750M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
77M
At 6.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsICLR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is ICON Public Limited Company (ICLR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
ICON Public Limited Company (ICLR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $140, implying -4.2% from the current price of $146. The bear case scenario is $264 and the bull case is $552.
02What is the ICLR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ICLR is $140 based on 30 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $216 (+47.9% from today), and the low-end target is $100 (-31.5%). The base case model target is $419.
03Is ICON Public Limited Company (ICLR) stock overvalued in 2026?
ICLR trades at 13.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for ICON Public Limited Company (ICLR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ICLR in 2026 are: (1) Accounting scrutiny — Recent revelations of accounting scrutiny have heightened volatility and overshadowed ICON's position as a leading clinical research organization. (2) Valuation de-rating — The bear case price target of $52 implies significant downside risk due to potential P/E multiple compression and revenue/margin uncertainties. (3) Market volatility — ICLR stock has experienced heightened volatility in recent trading sessions, reflecting investor concerns beyond fundamental performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is ICON Public Limited Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ICLR will report consensus revenue of $8.8B (+7.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.32 (+34.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.2B in revenue.
06When does ICON Public Limited Company (ICLR) report its next earnings?
ICON Public Limited Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-22. Consensus expects EPS of $3.01 and revenue of $2.0B. Over recent quarters, ICLR has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does ICON Public Limited Company generate?
ICON Public Limited Company (ICLR) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.4%. ICLR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($750M TTM).