Upside case
Bull case
$1040+2620.5%
MGM would need investors to value it at roughly 603x earnings — about 581x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
MGM Resorts International (MGM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
36
analysts
17 bullish · 2 bearish · 36 covering MGM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
17
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$40
+3.9% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $1040
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.8B
MGM price targets
Three scenarios for where MGM stock could go
Current
~$38
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $38
Base
$102
Bull
$1040
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$102+167.9%
At 59x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MGM Resorts International
MGM · NYSEConsumer CyclicalGambling, Resorts & CasinosDecember year-end
MGM Resorts International is a global hospitality and entertainment company that owns and operates luxury casino resorts in Las Vegas, regional U.S. markets, and Macau. It generates revenue primarily from gaming operations — including slots, table games, and sports betting — along with hotel stays, dining, entertainment, and conventions, with Las Vegas Strip properties contributing the largest share. The company's competitive advantage lies in its iconic brand portfolio, massive integrated resort properties that create destination appeal, and strategic partnerships that expand its digital gaming footprint through BetMGM.
Market Cap
$9.8B
Revenue TTM
$17.7B
Net Income TTM
$183M
Net Margin
1.0%
MGM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+27.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.79/$0.58
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.24/$0.37
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.60/$0.64
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.49/$0.56
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.79/$0.58 | +36.2% | $4.4B/$4.2B | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.24/$0.37 | -35.1% | $4.3B/$4.4B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.60/$0.64 | +150.0% | $4.6B/$4.5B | +2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.49/$0.56 | -12.5% | $4.5B/$4.4B | +2.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$18.9B
+6.8% YoY
FY2
$20.5B
+8.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.45
+105.9% YoY
FY2
$2.04
+40.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.7B
FCF Margin: 9.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MGM beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
MGM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Casino
53.9%
+7.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Las Vegas Strip Resorts
65.4%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Casino is the largest disclosed segment at 53.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.6% YoY.
Las Vegas Strip Resorts is the largest reported region at 65.4%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
MGM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $46 — implies +18.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
18.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MGM
50.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+99% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
MGM
50.3x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+156% premium
vs MGM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
50.3x
vs
5Y Average
32.4x
+55% premium
Forward PE
22.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+16%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+46%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
50.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
+99%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+156%
5Y Avg
32.4x
+55%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.74x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
31.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+108%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+178%
5Y Avg
17.2x
+84%
Price/FCF
5.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
-72%
Consumer Cyclical
14.9x
-61%
5Y Avg
12.5x
-53%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-82%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-21%
5Y Avg
1.1x
-49%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
0.03%
—
| Metric | MGM | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg MGM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.2x | 19.1x+16% | 15.2x+46% | — |
| Trailing PE | 50.3x | 25.2x+99% | 19.6x+156% | 32.4x+55% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.74x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.6x | 15.2x+108% | 11.4x+178% | 17.2x+84% |
| Price/FCF | 5.9x | 21.3x-72% | 14.9x-61% | 12.5x-53% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-82% | 0.7x-21% | 1.1x-49% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.15% | 0.03% |
MGM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMGM Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
MGM generates $1.7B in free cash flow at a 9.8% margin — returns 12.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.71
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$54.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
31.2× FCF
~31.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.3%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (1.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
12.6%
Dividend
—
Buyback
12.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
256M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMGM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Debt Load
MGM carries a substantial amount of debt, which makes it vulnerable to cash flow disruptions that could hinder its ability to meet debt obligations. This leverage is particularly risky in a rising interest rate environment, increasing the cost of debt management.
High Risk
Cyclical Sensitivity
MGM's revenues are highly sensitive to economic fluctuations, with historical data showing significant stock price drops during economic crises like the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic. Downturns in consumer spending, travel, or tourism can disproportionately impact the company's performance.
High Risk
Regulatory Challenges
MGM operates in a heavily regulated industry, and changes in laws or regulations could adversely affect its business. The company has faced significant fines and scrutiny related to anti-money laundering compliance failures, highlighting the risks of regulatory non-compliance.
Medium
Intense Competition
MGM faces fierce competition from industry rivals such as Caesars Entertainment and Wynn Resorts, as well as online gaming platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel. This competitive landscape pressures margins and market share.
Medium
Cybersecurity Incidents
MGM has experienced significant cybersecurity incidents, including a major cyberattack in 2023 that disrupted operations. Such incidents can lead to regulatory investigations and potential fines, further complicating operational stability.
Medium
Narrow Profit Margins
MGM operates with relatively low operating and net margins, which provide little cushion to withstand economic shocks or fund expansion. This financial structure limits the company's ability to absorb unexpected costs.
Lower
Cash Flow Dependence
While MGM generates positive operating cash flow, it is modest relative to its debt levels, constraining financial flexibility for expansion, share buybacks, or debt reduction. This dependence on cash flow limits strategic options.
Lower
Supply Chain Disruptions
MGM's operations rely on a reliable supply chain, and any disruptions could affect its ability to deliver services effectively. This risk is particularly relevant in the context of global supply chain challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MGM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Growth Drivers
MGM is focusing on partnerships, digital expansion including iGaming and sports betting through BetMGM, and international projects like resorts in Japan and Dubai. These initiatives are anticipated to boost revenue and profitability.
Financial Performance and Valuation
Earnings are projected to grow significantly in the coming year, with the company's P/E ratio considered less expensive than the market average. One discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates a 44.4% undervaluation, indicating a potential disconnect between its fundamentals and growth prospects.
Market Position and Diversification
MGM maintains a strong presence in Las Vegas and Macau, with plans for a resort in Japan by 2030. The company's diversified portfolio across different markets can help offset underperformance in one region with strength in another.
Digital and Online Gambling
MGM's involvement in the growing online gambling sector through BetMGM is a significant positive. Despite some initial losses at BetMGM, this segment is expected to benefit from long-term growth trends in digital platforms.
Analyst Sentiment
While the overall analyst consensus rating is 'Hold', there is a notable portion of analysts recommending 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy'. Some analysts believe MGM is undervalued and poised for recovery.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MGM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$38.21
52W Range Position
77%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$29.19
+30.9% from the low
52-Week High
$40.94
-6.7% from the high
1 Month
+1.62%
3 Month
+1.92%
YTD
+4.7%
1 Year
+21.6%
3Y CAGR
-4.2%
5Y CAGR
-0.4%
10Y CAGR
+5.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MGM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.2x
vs 13.9x median
+59% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.8%
vs +9.7% median
-30% below peer median
Net Margin
1.0%
vs 4.6% median
-77% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MGM MGM MGM Resorts International | $9.8B | 22.2x | +6.8% | 1.0% | Buy | +3.9% |
LVS LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp. | $35.3B | 16.0x | +21.0% | 13.4% | Buy | +31.0% |
WYN WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited | $11.2B | 20.9x | +9.7% | 4.6% | Buy | +32.9% |
CZR CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | $5.7B | — | +5.8% | -4.2% | Buy | +10.1% |
MLC MLCO Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited | $2.2B | 10.7x | +23.5% | 3.6% | Buy | +74.0% |
BYD BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation | $6.4B | 11.9x | +4.6% | 45.0% | Buy | +11.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MGM Dividend and Capital Return
MGM returns 12.6% annually — null% through dividends and 12.6% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
12.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
12.6%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
32M
Approx. Share Reduction
12.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
256M
At 12.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.1% |
| 2021 | $0.01 | -93.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| 2020 | $0.16 | -69.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| 2019 | $0.52 | +8.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% |
| 2018 | $0.48 | +9.1% | 9.6% | 11.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsMGM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MGM Resorts International (MGM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MGM Resorts International (MGM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $40, implying +3.9% from the current price of $38.
02What is the MGM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MGM is $40 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $50 (+30.9% from today), and the low-end target is $30 (-21.5%). The base case model target is $102.
03Is MGM Resorts International (MGM) stock overvalued in 2026?
MGM trades at 22.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MGM Resorts International (MGM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MGM in 2026 are: (1) High Debt Load — MGM carries a substantial amount of debt, which makes it vulnerable to cash flow disruptions that could hinder its ability to meet debt obligations. (2) Cyclical Sensitivity — MGM's revenues are highly sensitive to economic fluctuations, with historical data showing significant stock price drops during economic crises like the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic. (3) Regulatory Challenges — MGM operates in a heavily regulated industry, and changes in laws or regulations could adversely affect its business. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MGM Resorts International's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MGM will report consensus revenue of $18.9B (+6.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.45 (+105.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.5B in revenue.
06When does MGM Resorts International (MGM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MGM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does MGM Resorts International generate?
MGM Resorts International (MGM) generated $1.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.8%. MGM returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).