Upside case
Bull case
$1440+1238.8%
WYNN would need investors to value it at roughly 280x earnings — about 259x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
45
analysts
28 bullish · 1 bearish · 45 covering WYNN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
28
Hold
16
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$143
+32.9% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $1440
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.2B
WYNN price targets
Three scenarios for where WYNN stock could go
Current
~$108
Confidence
39 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $108
Base
$236
Bull
$1440
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$236+119.9%
At 46x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Wynn Resorts, Limited
WYNN · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalGambling, Resorts & CasinosDecember year-end
Wynn Resorts operates luxury integrated casino resorts in Las Vegas, Macau, and Boston. It generates revenue primarily from casino gaming — including table games and slot machines — along with hotel rooms, food and beverage, and retail operations, with Macau typically contributing over half of total revenue. The company's competitive advantage lies in its ultra-premium brand positioning, exceptional service standards, and iconic architectural designs that attract high-end customers willing to pay premium prices.
Market Cap
$11.2B
Revenue TTM
$7.1B
Net Income TTM
$327M
Net Margin
4.6%
WYNN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+37.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.07/$1.22
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.09/$1.20
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.86/$1.15
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.17/$1.33
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.07/$1.22 | -12.3% | $1.7B/$1.7B | -2.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.09/$1.20 | -9.2% | $1.7B/$1.7B | -0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.86/$1.15 | -25.2% | $1.8B/$1.8B | +3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.17/$1.33 | -12.0% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.8B
+9.7% YoY
FY2
$8.7B
+10.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.10
+61.9% YoY
FY2
$6.90
+35.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$692M
FCF Margin: 9.7%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.26
Expected Revenue
$1.8B
WYNN beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
WYNN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Casino
61.8%
+3.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Las Vegas Operations
44.9%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Casino is the largest disclosed segment at 61.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.5% YoY.
Las Vegas Operations is the largest reported region at 44.9%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
WYNN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $106 — implies -0.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WYNN
34.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+36% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
WYNN
34.3x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+75% premium
vs WYNN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.3x
vs
5Y Average
24.2x
+42% premium
Forward PE
20.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+10%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+38%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
+36%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+75%
5Y Avg
24.2x
+42%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-19%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+9%
5Y Avg
26.0x
-52%
Price/FCF
16.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
-24%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+8%
5Y Avg
13.8x
+17%
Price/Sales
1.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-50%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+121%
5Y Avg
1.9x
-19%
Dividend Yield
1.56%
S&P 500
1.88%
-17%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-27%
5Y Avg
0.74%
+110%
| Metric | WYNN | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg WYNN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.9x | 19.1x | 15.2x+38% | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.3x | 25.2x+36% | 19.6x+75% | 24.2x+42% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.4x | 15.3x-19% | 11.4x | 26.0x-52% |
| Price/FCF | 16.2x | 21.3x-24% | 15.0x | 13.8x+17% |
| Price/Sales | 1.6x | 3.1x-50% | 0.7x+121% | 1.9x-19% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.56% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 0.74% |
WYNN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWYNN Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
WYNN generates $692M in free cash flow at a 9.7% margin — returns 4.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.15
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$692M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$10.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
15.6× FCF
~15.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.9%
Dividend
1.6%
Buyback
3.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$380M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.68
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
53.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
104M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageWYNN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic & geopolitical volatility
Wynn Resorts is significantly exposed to macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility, particularly in China and Macau, which are critical markets. Any shifts in economic conditions or government policies in these regions could materially impact the company's operations and revenue.
High Risk
High debt levels
Wynn Resorts has a substantial amount of debt, exceeding its cash reserves, with a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 5x. This high leverage raises concerns about the company's financial stability and its ability to manage debt obligations effectively.
High Risk
Regulatory uncertainty
The company faces regulatory uncertainty in new markets, particularly regarding potential shifts in Chinese policy or visa restrictions. Such changes could adversely affect Wynn's operational capabilities and market access.
Medium
Operational execution risks
Wynn Resorts encounters operational and project-specific risks, including execution challenges and capital expenditure pressures for new developments, such as the UAE project. These factors could hinder the company's growth and profitability.
Medium
Cybersecurity vulnerabilities
The company has experienced cybersecurity incidents, including a ransomware demand, which highlight vulnerabilities in its systems. Such breaches could lead to significant operational disruptions and reputational damage.
Medium
Reputation damage from fines
Wynn Resorts has faced fines related to a gambling scheme with money laundering implications due to inadequate oversight. This incident has negatively impacted the company's reputation and could affect future business opportunities.
Lower
Free cash flow limitations
Wynn Resorts has shown mediocre free cash flow margins, which may limit its ability to reinvest in the business or return capital to shareholders. This could affect long-term growth prospects and investor returns.
Lower
Luxury market sensitivity
The company's luxury-focused model makes it sensitive to global economic slowdowns, which could reduce discretionary spending. A downturn in consumer spending could adversely affect Wynn's revenue and profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WYNN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
UAE Expansion
The upcoming Wynn Al Marjan Island project in the UAE is a significant growth driver, representing the company's largest product innovation in two decades. This $5.1 billion development is expected to be a major draw in a region with limited direct competition.
Macau Momentum
Wynn maintains industry-leading margins in its Macau operations and is seeing momentum in this market despite past challenges like lockdowns. This positions the company well to capitalize on the recovery in the region.
Las Vegas Strength
The company continues to achieve market share gains in Las Vegas, supported by the relative strength of the higher-end consumer. Investments in renovations, such as the $1.1 billion into the Encore Tower, aim to maintain high Average Daily Rates (ADRs).
Global Luxury Appeal
Wynn is recognized as a 'best-in-class' asset in the luxury integrated resort industry, benefiting from strong pricing power and brand loyalty. The company's focus on high-end consumers and experiential luxury travel positions it well within the growing global casino gaming sector.
High Institutional Ownership
High institutional ownership, with significant stakes held by major firms like BlackRock and Vanguard, indicates confidence in the company's future. This backing can provide stability and support for the stock.
Potential Catalysts
The anticipated opening of Wynn Al Marjan Island is expected to be a major catalyst for share price appreciation. Additionally, continued success in gaining market share in both Macau and Las Vegas will further bolster the bull case.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WYNN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$107.56
52W Range Position
48%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$82.10
+31.0% from the low
52-Week High
$134.72
-20.2% from the high
1 Month
+4.73%
3 Month
-8.81%
YTD
-12.2%
1 Year
+28.8%
3Y CAGR
-1.6%
5Y CAGR
-2.6%
10Y CAGR
+1.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WYNN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.9x
vs 19.1x median
+10% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.7%
vs +6.8% median
+43% above peer median
Net Margin
4.6%
vs 1.0% median
+344% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WYN WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited | $11.2B | 20.9x | +9.7% | 4.6% | Buy | +32.9% |
LVS LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp. | $35.3B | 16.0x | +21.0% | 13.4% | Buy | +31.0% |
MGM MGM MGM Resorts International | $9.8B | 22.2x | +6.8% | 1.0% | Buy | +3.9% |
MLC MLCO Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited | $2.2B | 10.7x | +23.5% | 3.6% | Buy | +74.0% |
CZR CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | $5.7B | — | +5.8% | -4.2% | Buy | +10.1% |
PEN PENN PENN Entertainment, Inc. | $2.2B | 22.9x | +6.4% | -12.1% | Buy | +18.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WYNN Dividend and Capital Return
WYNN returns capital mainly through $380M/year in buybacks (3.4% buyback yield), with a modest 1.58% dividend — combining for 5.0% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.4%
Dividend Yield
1.58%
Payout Ratio
53.4%
How WYNN Splits Its Return
Div 1.58%
Buyback 3.4%
Dividend 1.58%Buybacks 3.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.68
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.1%
5Y Div CAGR
0.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$380M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
104M
At 3.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% |
| 2024 | $1.00 | +33.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% |
| 2023 | $0.75 | — | 2.1% | 2.9% |
| 2020 | $1.00 | -73.3% | 0.1% | 1.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsWYNN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $143, implying +32.9% from the current price of $108.
02What is the WYNN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WYNN is $143 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $155 (+44.1% from today), and the low-end target is $127 (+18.1%). The base case model target is $236.
03Is Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) stock overvalued in 2026?
WYNN trades at 20.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WYNN in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic & geopolitical volatility — Wynn Resorts is significantly exposed to macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility, particularly in China and Macau, which are critical markets. (2) High debt levels — Wynn Resorts has a substantial amount of debt, exceeding its cash reserves, with a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 5x. (3) Regulatory uncertainty — The company faces regulatory uncertainty in new markets, particularly regarding potential shifts in Chinese policy or visa restrictions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Wynn Resorts, Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WYNN will report consensus revenue of $7.8B (+9.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.10 (+61.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.7B in revenue.
06When does Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) report its next earnings?
Wynn Resorts, Limited is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $1.26 and revenue of $1.8B. Over recent quarters, WYNN has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Wynn Resorts, Limited generate?
Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) generated $692M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.7%. WYNN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.6% yield) and share repurchases ($380M TTM).