Upside case
Bull case
$709+58.0%
MCO would need investors to value it at roughly 42x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 27x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Moody's Corporation (MCO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
18 bullish · 1 bearish · 32 covering MCO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
13
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$545
+21.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$391 – $709
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
26.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $79.5B
MCO price targets
Three scenarios for where MCO stock could go
Current
~$449
Confidence
70 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $449
Bear
$391
Base
$560
Bull
$709
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$560+24.9%
At 34x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$391-12.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push MCO down roughly 13% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Moody's Corporation
MCO · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesDecember year-end
Moody's is a global integrated risk assessment firm that provides credit ratings, research, and risk analysis tools. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its Moody's Analytics segment (~60% of revenue) and rating fees from its Moody's Investors Service segment (~40%). The company's key moat is its entrenched position as one of only three major credit rating agencies globally—a highly regulated oligopoly with significant brand recognition and switching costs.
Market Cap
$79.5B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
MCO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.56/$3.39
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.92/$3.70
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.64/$3.43
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.33/$4.22
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.56/$3.39 | +5.0% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +2.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.92/$3.70 | +5.9% | $2.0B/$2.0B | +2.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.64/$3.43 | +6.1% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +1.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.33/$4.22 | +2.6% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.3B
+7.9% YoY
FY2
$9.0B
+8.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$15.60
+10.9% YoY
FY2
$17.07
+9.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.0B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MCO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MCO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Moodys Analytics
62.7%
+9.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
International Regions
50.0%
+9.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Moodys Analytics is the largest disclosed segment at 62.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.8% YoY.
International Regions is the largest reported region at 50.0%, up 9.1% YoY.
MCO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $368 — implies -19.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
19.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MCO
32.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+30% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
MCO
32.8x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+146% premium
vs MCO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.8x
vs
5Y Average
39.0x
16% discount
Forward PE
26.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+41%
Financial Services
10.5x
+156%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
+30%
Financial Services
13.4x
+146%
5Y Avg
39.0x
-16%
PEG Ratio
4.21x
S&P 500
1.75x
+141%
Financial Services
1.03x
+310%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+41%
Financial Services
11.4x
+88%
5Y Avg
26.3x
-18%
Price/FCF
30.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+45%
Financial Services
10.6x
+190%
5Y Avg
38.2x
-19%
Price/Sales
10.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+229%
Financial Services
2.3x
+358%
5Y Avg
11.5x
-10%
Dividend Yield
0.87%
S&P 500
1.88%
-54%
Financial Services
2.68%
-68%
5Y Avg
0.78%
+11%
| Metric | MCO | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg MCO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 26.9x | 19.1x+41% | 10.5x+156% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.8x | 25.2x+30% | 13.4x+146% | 39.0x-16% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.21x | 1.75x+141% | 1.03x+310% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.5x | 15.3x+41% | 11.4x+88% | 26.3x-18% |
| Price/FCF | 30.9x | 21.3x+45% | 10.6x+190% | 38.2x-19% |
| Price/Sales | 10.3x | 3.1x+229% | 2.3x+358% | 11.5x-10% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.87% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 0.78% |
MCO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMCO Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MCO generates 64.1% ROE and 16.2% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.07
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
64.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
22.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
16.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.0B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
64.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.0%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
2.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.90
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
28.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
177M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageMCO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Market Volatility & Economic Conditions
Moody’s revenue is heavily tied to bond issuance, making it sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, interest rate changes, and corporate deleveraging. Economic downturns can cut demand for credit ratings, as seen during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the 2020 COVID‑19 pandemic, and the 2022 inflation shock, which all triggered sharp stock price declines.
Medium
Regulatory Scrutiny & Legal Risk
Moody’s operates in a highly regulated financial sector and faces constant scrutiny from U.S. regulators. Changes in laws or enforcement actions can directly impact its rating operations and revenue streams.
Medium
Reputational Damage Risk
The firm’s competitive position relies on credibility; past criticism during the 2008 subprime crisis shows how poor decisions can erode intangible asset value and investor confidence.
Lower
Competitive & AI Innovation Risk
Moody’s Analytics faces potential entrant risk from AI analytics companies and must stay competitive in a market dominated by S&P Global and Fitch. Failure to innovate could compress margins and slow growth.
Lower
Debt from Acquisitions
Acquisitions such as Risk Management Solutions in 2020 have added significant debt to Moody’s balance sheet, increasing leverage and potentially limiting future investment capacity.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MCO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Counter‑Cyclical Resilience in Downturns
Moody’s is a leading credit rating agency whose demand rises when economic uncertainty spikes. The firm’s counter‑cyclical nature makes it a relatively stable investment during turbulent periods.
Diversified Business Model
Moody’s revenue comes from corporate, sovereign, structured finance ratings and analytical services. This diversification reduces reliance on any single segment, allowing downturns in one area to be offset by strength in others.
Growth in Analytics & AI Integration
The analytical services segment, which includes financial data, risk‑management software, and AI integration, is positioned for future growth. Recent acquisitions have strengthened these offerings, and Moody’s expects total issuance in 2026 to rise at a low single‑digit pace.
Strategic AI and Blockchain Expansion
Moody’s is actively integrating AI into its workflows and expanding into blockchain‑based credit ratings, seen as long‑term growth drivers. The company also reported strong fourth‑quarter earnings and guidance for 2026 that exceeded analyst expectations.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MCO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$448.64
52W Range Position
32%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$402.28
+11.5% from the low
52-Week High
$546.88
-18.0% from the high
1 Month
+1.02%
3 Month
-0.85%
YTD
-10.1%
1 Year
-3.1%
3Y CAGR
+13.6%
5Y CAGR
+6.4%
10Y CAGR
+16.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MCO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
26.9x
vs 21.6x median
+25% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.9%
vs +5.7% median
+38% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs 29.3% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCO MCO Moody's Corporation | $79.5B | 26.9x | +7.9% | — | Buy | +21.4% |
SPG SPGI S&P Global Inc. | $125.4B | 21.6x | +7.8% | — | Buy | +29.4% |
FDS FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | $9.1B | 11.9x | +5.7% | — | Hold | +31.2% |
MSC MSCI MSCI Inc. | $42.4B | 29.7x | +10.2% | — | Buy | +15.8% |
ICE ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $86.9B | 19.1x | +1.2% | — | Buy | +27.6% |
VRS VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc. | $22.4B | 22.4x | +5.6% | 29.3% | Hold | +35.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MCO Dividend and Capital Return
MCO returns capital mainly through $1.7B/year in buybacks (2.1% buyback yield), with a modest 0.86% dividend — combining for 3.0% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 22 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.1%
Dividend Yield
0.86%
Payout Ratio
28.5%
How MCO Splits Its Return
Div 0.86%
Buyback 2.1%
Dividend 0.86%Buybacks 2.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.90
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
22Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.3%
5Y Div CAGR
10.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
177M
At 2.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.06 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.76 | +10.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% |
| 2024 | $3.40 | +10.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | $3.08 | +10.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% |
| 2022 | $2.80 | +12.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsMCO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Moody's Corporation (MCO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Moody's Corporation (MCO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $545, implying +21.4% from the current price of $449. The bear case scenario is $391 and the bull case is $709.
02What is the MCO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MCO is $545 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $610 (+36.0% from today), and the low-end target is $489 (+9.0%). The base case model target is $560.
03Is Moody's Corporation (MCO) stock overvalued in 2026?
MCO trades at 26.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Moody's Corporation (MCO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MCO in 2026 are: (1) Market Volatility & Economic Conditions — Moody’s revenue is heavily tied to bond issuance, making it sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, interest rate changes, and corporate deleveraging. (2) Regulatory Scrutiny & Legal Risk — Moody’s operates in a highly regulated financial sector and faces constant scrutiny from U. (3) Reputational Damage Risk — The firm’s competitive position relies on credibility; past criticism during the 2008 subprime crisis shows how poor decisions can erode intangible asset value and investor confidence. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Moody's Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MCO will report consensus revenue of $8.3B (+7.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $15.60 (+10.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.0B in revenue.
06When does Moody's Corporation (MCO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MCO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Moody's Corporation generate?
Moody's Corporation (MCO) generated $3.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. MCO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($1.7B TTM).