Upside case
Bull case
$553+37.4%
MOG-A would need investors to value it at roughly 52x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 38x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Moog Inc. (MOG-A) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
11
analysts
5 bullish · 1 bearish · 11 covering MOG-A
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$131
-67.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$264 – $553
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
11
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
37.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.8B
MOG-A price targets
Three scenarios for where MOG-A stock could go
Current
~$402
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $402
Bear
$264
Base
$420
Bull
$553
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$420+4.3%
This is close to how the market is already pricing MOG-A — at roughly 40x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$264-34.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 13x multiple contraction could push MOG-A down roughly 34% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Moog Inc.
MOG-A · NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSeptember year-end
Moog Inc. is a precision motion and fluid controls manufacturer for aerospace, defense, and industrial applications. It generates revenue through three main segments: Aircraft Controls (~40% of sales), Space and Defense Controls (~35%), and Industrial Systems (~25%). The company's moat lies in its deep engineering expertise and long-term relationships with defense and aerospace customers—where its high-reliability systems are mission-critical and difficult to replace.
Market Cap
$12.8B
Revenue TTM
$4.2B
Net Income TTM
$285M
Net Margin
6.8%
MOG-A Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.86/$2.22
Revenue
$971M/$960M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.56/$2.22
Revenue
$1.0B/$963M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.63/$2.21
Revenue
$1.1B/$987M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.64/$2.36
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.86/$2.22 | -16.2% | $971M/$960M | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.56/$2.22 | +15.3% | $1.0B/$963M | +8.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.63/$2.21 | +19.0% | $1.1B/$987M | +11.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.64/$2.36 | +11.9% | $1.1B/$1.0B | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.5B
+6.7% YoY
FY2
$4.8B
+7.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.02
+1.6% YoY
FY2
$9.32
+3.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$204M
FCF Margin: 4.9%
Next Earnings
July 24, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.64
Expected Revenue
$1.1B
MOG-A beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MOG-A Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Space And Defense
28.8%
+9.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
63.0%
+4.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Space And Defense is the largest disclosed segment at 28.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 63.0%, up 4.9% YoY.
MOG-A Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $490 — implies +19.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
19.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MOG-A
54.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.6x
+123% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
MOG-A
54.9x
vs
Industrials
25.4x
+116% premium
vs MOG-A 5Y Avg P/E
Today
54.9x
vs
5Y Average
22.2x
+148% premium
Forward PE
37.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
+102%
Industrials
20.9x
+82%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
54.9x
S&P 500
24.6x
+123%
Industrials
25.4x
+116%
5Y Avg
22.2x
+148%
PEG Ratio
0.60x
S&P 500
1.67x
-64%
Industrials
1.61x
-63%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
26.6x
S&P 500
15.1x
+76%
Industrials
13.8x
+93%
5Y Avg
11.8x
+124%
Price/FCF
99.4x
S&P 500
20.9x
+375%
Industrials
20.0x
+398%
5Y Avg
57.1x
+74%
Price/Sales
3.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+6%
Industrials
1.6x
+109%
5Y Avg
1.2x
+166%
Dividend Yield
0.28%
S&P 500
1.91%
-85%
Industrials
1.25%
-77%
5Y Avg
0.96%
-71%
| Metric | MOG-A | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg MOG-A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 37.9x | 18.8x+102% | 20.9x+82% | — |
| Trailing PE | 54.9x | 24.6x+123% | 25.4x+116% | 22.2x+148% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.60x | 1.67x-64% | 1.61x-63% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.6x | 15.1x+76% | 13.8x+93% | 11.8x+124% |
| Price/FCF | 99.4x | 20.9x+375% | 20.0x+398% | 57.1x+74% |
| Price/Sales | 3.3x | 3.1x | 1.6x+109% | 1.2x+166% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.28% | 1.91% | 1.25% | 0.96% |
MOG-A trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMOG-A Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
MOG-A 11.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 1.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+13.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.88
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$204M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$62M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$884M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.3× FCF
~4.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
14.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.6%
Dividend
0.3%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$172M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.14
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
15.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
32M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMOG-A Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
Analysts' average price target suggests a potential 14.79% downside, with the lowest target implying a 30.17% decline from current levels.
Medium
Sector outlook risks
Moog's performance is tied to the Industrials sector, which faces cyclical demand and macroeconomic sensitivity.
Medium
Competitive positioning
The company operates in a competitive landscape where revenue growth and profit margins are key concerns for analysts.
High Risk
Production risks
Moog Inc has reported 28 risks, with Production being the top risk category, indicating potential operational challenges.
Lower
Financial health concerns
Investors are advised to review fundamental analysis and smart money sentiment, suggesting underlying financial vulnerabilities.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MOG-A Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Aerospace and defense tailwinds
Moog Inc. is well-positioned to benefit from elevated defense spending and commercial aircraft recovery, driving growth.
Strong valuation upside
Bullish analysts project a target price of $300.75, suggesting significant upside potential from current levels.
Market confidence in growth
The company's exposure to key sectors like aerospace and defense has bolstered investor confidence in its long-term growth.
Defense spending boost
Elevated defense spending is expected to provide a sustained tailwind for Moog Inc.'s revenue and profitability.
Commercial aircraft recovery
The rebound in commercial aircraft demand is anticipated to drive increased orders and revenue for Moog Inc.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MOG-A Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$402.24
52W Range Position
93%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$174.83
+130.1% from the low
52-Week High
$420.65
-4.4% from the high
1 Month
+17.40%
3 Month
+35.59%
YTD
+61.0%
1 Year
+126.2%
3Y CAGR
+56.2%
5Y CAGR
+36.8%
10Y CAGR
+22.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MOG-A vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
37.9x
vs 50.2x median
-25% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.7%
vs +9.2% median
-27% below peer median
Net Margin
6.8%
vs 7.8% median
-13% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MOG MOG-A Moog Inc. | $12.8B | 37.9x | +6.7% | 6.8% | Buy | -67.4% |
CW CW Curtiss-Wright Corporation | $28.2B | 50.2x | +9.5% | 14.2% | Buy | -3.2% |
KTO KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $9.5B | 66.5x | +14.5% | 2.1% | Buy | +116.5% |
HAY HAYW Hayward Holdings, Inc. | $3.2B | 17.2x | +3.8% | 14.0% | Hold | +6.3% |
DRS DRS Leonardo DRS, Inc. | $12.2B | 35.5x | +9.2% | 7.8% | Buy | +16.6% |
MRC MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | $6.7B | 103.1x | +4.6% | -1.5% | Buy | -11.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MOG-A Dividend and Capital Return
MOG-A returns capital mainly through $172M/year in buybacks (1.3% buyback yield), with a modest 0.28% dividend — combining for 1.6% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
0.28%
Payout Ratio
15.5%
How MOG-A Splits Its Return
Div 0.28%
Buyback 1.3%
Dividend 0.28%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.14
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.7%
5Y Div CAGR
9.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$172M
Estimated Shares Retired
426.8K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
32M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.16 | +3.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% |
| 2024 | $1.12 | +3.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% |
| 2023 | $1.08 | +3.8% | 0.8% | 1.8% |
| 2022 | $1.04 | +4.0% | 2.1% | 3.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsMOG-A Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Moog Inc. (MOG-A) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Moog Inc. (MOG-A) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 11 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $131, implying -67.4% from the current price of $402. The bear case scenario is $264 and the bull case is $553.
02What is the MOG-A stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MOG-A is $131 based on 11 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $131 (-67.4% from today), and the low-end target is $131 (-67.4%). The base case model target is $420.
03Is Moog Inc. (MOG-A) stock overvalued in 2026?
MOG-A trades at 37.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Moog Inc. (MOG-A) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MOG-A in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — Analysts' average price target suggests a potential 14. (2) Production risks — Moog Inc has reported 28 risks, with Production being the top risk category, indicating potential operational challenges. (3) Sector outlook risks — Moog's performance is tied to the Industrials sector, which faces cyclical demand and macroeconomic sensitivity. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Moog Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MOG-A will report consensus revenue of $4.5B (+6.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.02 (+1.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.8B in revenue.
06When does Moog Inc. (MOG-A) report its next earnings?
Moog Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-24. Consensus expects EPS of $2.64 and revenue of $1.1B. Over recent quarters, MOG-A has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Moog Inc. generate?
Moog Inc. (MOG-A) generated $204M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.9%. MOG-A returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.3% yield) and share repurchases ($172M TTM).