Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Cash Flow Statement

The relationship between net income and operating cash flow is erratic, with OCF/NI ratios swinging from -1.15 in 2025Q4 to 4.24 in 2025Q3, reflecting the dominance of working capital changes rather than operational earnings. In 2026Q2, OCF was -$526M against a net loss of -$782M, a modest improvement, but the underlying cash burn persists. The recurring negative OCF, even when net losses are large, suggests that accruals and non-cash items are not the primary issue; rather, the business is structurally cash-negative.

The FCF trajectory is deteriorating, with cumulative FCF over the last four quarters at -$2.7B, compared to -$4.1B in the prior four quarters, but this improvement is largely due to a one-time working capital boost in 2025Q4. Excluding that quarter, the underlying burn rate is roughly -$0.8B per quarter, consistent with the company's ongoing operational losses. The FCF margin, which was -177.9% in 2026Q1, reflects the collapse in revenue to $145M, and even with cost-cutting, the company is far from cash flow break-even.

The reduction in CapEx suggests management is responding to the demand downturn by curtailing expansion, but the capital intensity relative to revenue remains high because the revenue base has contracted so severely. The 2026Q2 CapEx/Revenue of 25.5% is misleadingly high; in absolute terms, CapEx is now minimal, indicating that the company is prioritizing cash preservation over growth investment. This shift may limit future manufacturing flexibility, but given the current underutilization, it appears prudent.

The working capital line is the primary source of quarterly cash flow variability, with a positive contribution of $1.6B in 2025Q4 and $553M in 2026Q1, followed by a negative $18M in 2026Q2. This pattern suggests that the company is collecting on prior government contracts and managing inventory write-downs, but the underlying operating cash flow remains negative. Investors should monitor whether these swings are sustainable or if they represent a one-time liquidation of working capital.

The absence of dividends and buybacks is consistent with a company in a cash preservation mode, as it burns through its cash reserves to fund a large pipeline. The $2M buyback in 2026Q2 is negligible and likely related to employee stock plans. The company's cash pile, while still substantial, is being depleted at a rate that suggests management is betting on future pipeline success to restore cash generation.

The cumulative gap between net income and operating cash flow is substantial, with net losses exceeding cash burn by $3.5B over the last ten quarters. This divergence is largely due to non-cash items like inventory write-downs and impairments, which are included in net income but do not affect cash. However, the fact that operating cash flow is still deeply negative indicates that the company's cash-generating ability is fundamentally impaired, not just an accounting artifact.