Upside case
Bull case
$60+26.3%
NI would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
NiSource Inc. (NI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
22
analysts
16 bullish · 0 bearish · 22 covering NI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$50
+4.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$7 – $60
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $22.7B
NI price targets
Three scenarios for where NI stock could go
Current
~$47
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $47
Bear
$7
Base
$51
Bull
$60
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$51+7.4%
This is close to how the market is already pricing NI — at roughly 25x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$7-85.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 20x multiple contraction could push NI down roughly 85% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
NiSource Inc.
NI · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasDecember year-end
NiSource is a regulated utility company that provides natural gas distribution and electricity generation and transmission services across several Midwestern and Mid-Atlantic states. It earns revenue primarily through regulated rate structures for its gas distribution operations (serving ~3.2 million customers) and electric operations (serving ~483,000 customers), with returns approved by state utility commissions. The company's key advantage is its regulated monopoly status in its service territories, which provides stable, predictable cash flows and a protected customer base.
Market Cap
$22.7B
Revenue TTM
$6.8B
Net Income TTM
$962M
Net Margin
14.1%
NI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.98/$0.90
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.22/$0.20
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.19/$0.20
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.51/$0.50
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.98/$0.90 | +9.4% | $2.2B/$2.2B | +1.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.22/$0.20 | +7.3% | $1.3B/$1.2B | +5.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.19/$0.20 | -5.0% | $1.3B/$1.2B | +6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.51/$0.50 | +2.9% | $1.9B/$1.4B | +33.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.9B
+8.5% YoY
FY2
$7.4B
+7.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.00
+5.5% YoY
FY2
$2.10
+5.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.0B
FCF Margin: -15.0%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.03
Expected Revenue
$2.5B
NI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2023
Total disclosed revenue $5.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Gas Distribution Operations
67.6%
-7.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Gas Distribution Operations is the largest disclosed segment at 67.6% of FY 2023 revenue, down 7.1% YoY.
NI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $41 — implies -14.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
14.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NI
24.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
NI
24.3x
vs
Utilities
19.7x
+23% premium
vs NI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.3x
vs
5Y Average
20.0x
+22% premium
Forward PE
23.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+21%
Utilities
17.2x
+34%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-3%
Utilities
19.7x
+23%
5Y Avg
20.0x
+22%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Utilities
1.73x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-15%
Utilities
11.5x
+12%
5Y Avg
11.7x
+10%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Utilities
15.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
3.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+9%
Utilities
2.2x
+57%
5Y Avg
2.5x
+35%
Dividend Yield
2.35%
S&P 500
1.88%
+25%
Utilities
3.07%
-23%
5Y Avg
3.03%
-22%
| Metric | NI | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg NI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.1x | 19.1x+21% | 17.2x+34% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.3x | 25.2x | 19.7x+23% | 20.0x+22% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.73x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.9x | 15.3x-15% | 11.5x+12% | 11.7x+10% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.4x | — |
| Price/Sales | 3.4x | 3.1x | 2.2x+57% | 2.5x+35% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.35% | 1.88% | 3.07% | 3.03% |
NI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NI earns 27.8% operating margin on regulated earnings, 2.4% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+15.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.00
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
27.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$136M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.4%
Dividend
2.4%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.12
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
57.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
479M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageNI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Debt Load
NiSource has a significant debt load, with total liabilities of approximately $21.9 billion, which exceeds its cash and near-term receivables. The company's debt-to-EBITDA ratio stands at 5.8, indicating a substantial debt burden that could impact financial stability.
High Risk
Interest Rate Fluctuations
Changes in interest rates that exceed current models could significantly increase financial pressures on NiSource. This could affect the company's cost of borrowing and overall financial health.
High Risk
Regulatory Uncertainties
Uncertainties surrounding rate cases and potential regulatory blowback towards data centers can adversely affect NiSource's ability to raise rates. This limitation could hinder demand growth and overall revenue generation.
Medium
Natural Disasters
NiSource is exposed to risks from natural disasters, which could disrupt operations and lead to significant financial losses. The impact of such events can vary widely, affecting infrastructure and service delivery.
Medium
Economic Conditions
Adverse economic and market conditions, along with increases in interest rates, could negatively impact NiSource's results of operations, cash flows, financial condition, and liquidity. Economic downturns may lead to reduced energy demand and revenue.
Medium
Cybersecurity Threats
The company faces risks from potential cybersecurity attacks, including ransomware, which could lead to operational disruptions and increased costs. The evolving landscape of cybersecurity threats necessitates ongoing investment in protective measures.
Lower
Customer Concentration
Consolidation and concentration of customers could lead to fluctuations in revenue and increased costs for NiSource. A loss of a major customer could significantly impact financial performance.
Lower
Execution of Business Plan
There's a risk that NiSource may not be able to execute its business plan or growth strategy effectively. This includes potential challenges in utility infrastructure investments and achieving planned results from customer and regulatory initiatives.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Growth Prospects
NiSource anticipates long-term earnings per share (EPS) growth of 6%-8% and a projected rate base growth of 8%-10% through 2029. This growth is supported by substantial capital expenditure opportunities, including an expected $2.2 billion in upside capital expenditures driven by industrial manufacturing growth in states like Indiana, Virginia, and Ohio.
Data Center Demand
The company is benefiting from optimism around power demand from the AI data center buildout. A significant capital plan of $28 billion over five years includes $6-$7 billion for Amazon's data center, driving 11%-12% rate base growth and 8%-9% targeted EPS growth through 2033.
Dividend Growth and Sustainability
NiSource pays a meaningful dividend with a trailing yield of 2.36%. The company has been increasing its dividend for 14 years, and its dividend payout ratio is considered healthy and sustainable.
Regulatory Positioning
NiSource's strong regulatory positioning and robust capital program are seen as key strengths, providing a favorable environment for growth.
Improving Investor Sentiment
Short interest in NiSource has recently decreased, indicating improving investor sentiment and confidence in the company's future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$47.48
52W Range Position
87%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$37.22
+27.6% from the low
52-Week High
$48.98
-3.1% from the high
1 Month
+0.72%
3 Month
+7.66%
YTD
+12.6%
1 Year
+20.6%
3Y CAGR
+18.6%
5Y CAGR
+13.0%
10Y CAGR
+7.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.1x
vs 17.9x median
+29% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.5%
vs +4.5% median
+88% above peer median
Net Margin
14.1%
vs 14.5% median
-3% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NI NI NiSource Inc. | $22.7B | 23.1x | +8.5% | 14.1% | Buy | +4.9% |
ATO ATO Atmos Energy Corporation | $30.5B | 22.2x | +7.6% | 27.6% | Hold | -3.0% |
SR SR Spire Inc. | $5.1B | 16.6x | +0.5% | 14.5% | Buy | +12.5% |
NWN NWN Northwest Natural Holding Company | $2.0B | 16.0x | +4.5% | 9.6% | Hold | +17.1% |
SWX SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | $6.6B | 21.3x | -27.6% | 18.5% | Buy | +5.7% |
OGS OGS ONE Gas, Inc. | $5.4B | 17.9x | +8.1% | 11.8% | Hold | +4.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NI Dividend and Capital Return
NI returns 2.4% total yield, led by a 2.35% dividend, raised 12 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.35%
Payout Ratio
57.1%
How NI Splits Its Return
Div 2.35%
Dividend 2.35%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.12
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.0%
5Y Div CAGR
5.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
479M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.12 | +5.7% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| 2024 | $1.06 | +6.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| 2023 | $1.00 | +6.4% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $0.94 | +6.8% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsNI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is NiSource Inc. (NI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
NiSource Inc. (NI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $50, implying +4.9% from the current price of $47. The bear case scenario is $7 and the bull case is $60.
02What is the NI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NI is $50 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $51 (+7.4% from today), and the low-end target is $48 (+1.1%). The base case model target is $51.
03Is NiSource Inc. (NI) stock overvalued in 2026?
NI trades at 23.1x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for NiSource Inc. (NI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NI in 2026 are: (1) Debt Load — NiSource has a significant debt load, with total liabilities of approximately $21. (2) Interest Rate Fluctuations — Changes in interest rates that exceed current models could significantly increase financial pressures on NiSource. (3) Regulatory Uncertainties — Uncertainties surrounding rate cases and potential regulatory blowback towards data centers can adversely affect NiSource's ability to raise rates. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is NiSource Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NI will report consensus revenue of $6.9B (+8.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.00 (+5.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.4B in revenue.
06When does NiSource Inc. (NI) report its next earnings?
NiSource Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.03 and revenue of $2.5B. Over recent quarters, NI has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does NiSource Inc. generate?
NiSource Inc. (NI) had a free cash outflow of $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.0%. NI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.4% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).