Upside case
Bull case
$1418+505.5%
NUE would need investors to value it at roughly 101x earnings — about 84x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Nucor Corporation (NUE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
19 bullish · 3 bearish · 32 covering NUE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
10
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$223
-4.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$198 – $1418
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $53.3B
NUE price targets
Three scenarios for where NUE stock could go
Current
~$234
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $234
Bear
$198
Base
$394
Bull
$1418
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$394+68.4%
At 28x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$198-15.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push NUE down roughly 15% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nucor Corporation
NUE · NYSEBasic MaterialsSteelDecember year-end
Nucor Corporation is a leading American steel producer that manufactures and sells a wide range of steel products. It generates revenue primarily through its Steel Mills segment (~70% of sales) which produces sheet, plate, and bar steel, complemented by its Steel Products segment (~25%) for construction applications and Raw Materials segment (~5%) producing direct reduced iron. The company's key competitive advantage is its highly efficient mini-mill production model—using electric arc furnaces and scrap metal—which gives it lower costs and greater flexibility than traditional integrated steelmakers.
Market Cap
$53.3B
Revenue TTM
$34.2B
Net Income TTM
$2.3B
Net Margin
6.8%
NUE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.60/$2.55
Revenue
$8.5B/$8.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.63/$2.18
Revenue
$8.5B/$8.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.73/$1.91
Revenue
$7.7B/$7.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.23/$2.82
Revenue
$9.5B/$8.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.60/$2.55 | +2.0% | $8.5B/$8.5B | -0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.63/$2.18 | +20.6% | $8.5B/$8.2B | +4.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.73/$1.91 | -9.4% | $7.7B/$7.9B | -2.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.23/$2.82 | +14.5% | $9.5B/$8.9B | +6.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$35.7B
+4.4% YoY
FY2
$36.4B
+2.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.82
+16.3% YoY
FY2
$12.67
+7.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$532M
FCF Margin: 1.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NUE beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NUE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $29.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Sheet
31.5%
-1.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Sheet is the largest disclosed segment at 31.5% of FY 2025 revenue, down 1.0% YoY.
NUE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $196 — implies -13.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
13.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NUE
31.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+23% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
NUE
31.1x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
+36% premium
vs NUE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.1x
vs
5Y Average
10.9x
+185% premium
Forward PE
16.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-12%
Basic Materials
15.4x
+8%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
+23%
Basic Materials
22.9x
+36%
5Y Avg
10.9x
+185%
PEG Ratio
1.19x
S&P 500
1.75x
-32%
Basic Materials
1.22x
-2%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
-8%
Basic Materials
11.4x
+23%
5Y Avg
6.1x
+132%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Basic Materials
27.5x
—
5Y Avg
13.7x
—
Price/Sales
1.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-48%
Basic Materials
2.0x
-16%
5Y Avg
1.0x
+62%
Dividend Yield
0.95%
S&P 500
1.88%
-50%
Basic Materials
1.37%
-31%
5Y Avg
1.48%
-36%
| Metric | NUE | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg NUE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.7x | 19.1x-12% | 15.4x | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.1x | 25.2x+23% | 22.9x+36% | 10.9x+185% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.19x | 1.75x-32% | 1.22x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.1x | 15.3x | 11.4x+23% | 6.1x+132% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 27.5x | 13.7x |
| Price/Sales | 1.6x | 3.1x-48% | 2.0x-16% | 1.0x+62% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.95% | 1.88% | 1.37% | 1.48% |
NUE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNUE Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
NUE returns 2.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$34.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
14.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.17
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$532M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
9.1× FCF
~9.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.3%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$700M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.22
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
29.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
228M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNUE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Steel Price Volatility
Nucor’s profitability is tightly linked to the cyclical nature of steel prices. In Q4 2024, lower average selling prices and volumes compressed margins in the core steel mills segment, illustrating the sensitivity to price swings. Persistent weakness in steel pricing could limit the company’s ability to fund growth initiatives and maintain efficient operations.
High Risk
Raw Material Cost Volatility
Nucor relies heavily on electric arc furnaces (EAFs), making it highly exposed to scrap steel prices. Volatility in scrap metal costs and limited availability can negatively affect operating margins, as the supply of scrap is inelastic while demand continues to grow. This exposure could erode profitability during periods of rising scrap prices.
Medium
Capital Expenditure Risk
Nucor’s significant capital expenditure program is aimed at long‑term growth but poses near‑term financial flexibility risks. High levels of spending could strain the balance sheet if market conditions do not improve as anticipated, potentially impacting liquidity and debt capacity. Investors should monitor the company’s ability to fund projects without compromising financial health.
Medium
Capital Efficiency Risk
Nucor’s return on invested capital (ROIC) has been lower than its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indicating potential inefficiencies in capital utilization. This gap may reduce shareholder value over time and signal that the company is not generating returns that exceed its cost of capital. Management’s ability to improve ROIC is critical to sustaining long‑term profitability.
Lower
Global Overcapacity Risk
Global steel production overcapacity, especially from China, can increase imports into the United States and negatively impact Nucor’s business. During periods of global economic weakness, the effects of this overcapacity are amplified, potentially eroding domestic market share and pricing power. Investors should consider the impact of international supply dynamics on Nucor’s competitive position.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NUE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Backlog Surge & New Projects
Nucor’s steel mills backlog jumped 40% year‑over‑year entering 2026, driven by four recently completed projects. A new West Virginia sheet mill is slated to launch by year‑end, targeting automotive and appliance markets to boost incremental EBITDA.
Section 232 Tariff Advantage
The 50% levy on imported steel under Section 232 strengthens domestic pricing power and mill utilization for Nucor. This policy is expected to compress foreign import share, creating a more favorable competitive landscape.
Strong Balance Sheet & Share Repurchases
Nucor maintains a robust balance sheet and has authorized a $4 billion share‑repurchase program. Capital spending is projected to decline, shifting focus toward cash generation and sustaining its long‑standing dividend‑king status.
Diversified Portfolio & Mini‑Mill Tech
The company’s diversified product mix includes higher‑margin specialty items, stabilizing profitability beyond the cyclical steel market. Its electric‑arc mini‑mill technology, which relies on scrap metal, enhances environmental sustainability and operational resilience.
Undervalued Growth Opportunity
Analysts view Nucor’s stock as undervalued following recent pullbacks, offering an attractive long‑term entry point. Earnings are projected to rise sharply, driven by increased volumes, higher realized prices, and the ramp‑up of new projects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NUE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$234.22
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$106.21
+120.5% from the low
52-Week High
$235.44
-0.5% from the high
1 Month
+38.11%
3 Month
+21.46%
YTD
+38.3%
1 Year
+100.4%
3Y CAGR
+18.3%
5Y CAGR
+19.6%
10Y CAGR
+17.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NUE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.7x
vs 17.8x median
-6% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.4%
vs +3.7% median
+17% above peer median
Net Margin
6.8%
vs 5.5% median
+25% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NUE NUE Nucor Corporation | $53.3B | 16.7x | +4.4% | 6.8% | Buy | -4.9% |
STL STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $35.0B | 16.2x | +6.0% | 7.2% | Buy | -22.1% |
CLF CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $6.4B | — | +3.7% | -7.9% | Hold | -0.4% |
CMC CMC Commercial Metals Company | $8.0B | 11.0x | +2.4% | 5.5% | Buy | +14.7% |
RS RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $19.2B | 19.3x | +3.0% | 5.4% | Hold | -3.8% |
ATI ATI ATI Inc. | $22.6B | 38.5x | +6.6% | 9.3% | Buy | +5.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NUE Dividend and Capital Return
NUE returns 2.3% annually — 0.96% through dividends and 1.3% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
2.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
0.96%
Payout Ratio
29.4%
How NUE Splits Its Return
Div 0.96%
Buyback 1.3%
Dividend 0.96%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.22
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.2%
5Y Div CAGR
6.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$700M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
228M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.21 | +1.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% |
| 2024 | $2.17 | +4.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% |
| 2023 | $2.07 | +3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
| 2022 | $2.01 | +17.2% | 8.0% | 9.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsNUE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Nucor Corporation (NUE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Nucor Corporation (NUE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $223, implying -4.9% from the current price of $234. The bear case scenario is $198 and the bull case is $1418.
02What is the NUE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NUE is $223 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $245 (+4.6% from today), and the low-end target is $180 (-23.1%). The base case model target is $394.
03Is Nucor Corporation (NUE) stock overvalued in 2026?
NUE trades at 16.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Nucor Corporation (NUE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NUE in 2026 are: (1) Steel Price Volatility — Nucor’s profitability is tightly linked to the cyclical nature of steel prices. (2) Raw Material Cost Volatility — Nucor relies heavily on electric arc furnaces (EAFs), making it highly exposed to scrap steel prices. (3) Capital Expenditure Risk — Nucor’s significant capital expenditure program is aimed at long‑term growth but poses near‑term financial flexibility risks. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Nucor Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NUE will report consensus revenue of $35.7B (+4.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.82 (+16.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $36.4B in revenue.
06When does Nucor Corporation (NUE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NUE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Nucor Corporation generate?
Nucor Corporation (NUE) generated $532M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.6%. NUE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($700M TTM).