Upside case
Bull case
$563+42.1%
RS would need investors to value it at roughly 28x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
27
analysts
9 bullish · 2 bearish · 27 covering RS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
16
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$374
-5.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$269 – $563
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.3B
RS price targets
Three scenarios for where RS stock could go
Current
~$396
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $396
Bear
$269
Base
$427
Bull
$563
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$427+7.8%
This is close to how the market is already pricing RS — at roughly 22x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$269-32.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push RS down roughly 32% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.
RS · NYSEBasic MaterialsSteelDecember year-end
Reliance Steel & Aluminum is a diversified metals service center that distributes approximately 100,000 metal products — including carbon steel, aluminum, stainless steel, and specialty alloys — and provides value-added processing services. It generates revenue primarily through metal sales (roughly 90% of total) and processing fees (about 10%), serving diverse end markets like manufacturing, construction, aerospace, and energy. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive North American distribution network — over 300 locations — which provides local market access and just-in-time delivery capabilities that smaller competitors cannot match.
Market Cap
$20.3B
Revenue TTM
$14.8B
Net Income TTM
$806M
Net Margin
5.4%
RS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.43/$4.68
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.64/$3.68
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.40/$2.83
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.16/$4.63
Revenue
$4.0B/$3.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.43/$4.68 | -5.3% | $3.7B/$3.7B | +0.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.64/$3.68 | -1.1% | $3.7B/$3.4B | +6.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.40/$2.83 | -15.2% | $3.5B/$3.4B | +1.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.16/$4.63 | +11.4% | $4.0B/$3.9B | +3.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.7B
+5.8% YoY
FY2
$16.2B
+3.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$20.19
+30.2% YoY
FY2
$23.74
+17.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$612M
FCF Margin: 4.1%
Next Earnings
July 22, 2026
Expected EPS
$5.34
Expected Revenue
$4.2B
RS beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
RS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Carbon steel
62.6%
+4.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Carbon steel is the largest disclosed segment at 62.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.3% YoY.
RS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $388 — implies -2.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
2.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RS
28.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+16% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
RS
28.4x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
+20% premium
vs RS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
28.4x
vs
5Y Average
12.9x
+120% premium
Forward PE
20.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
+6%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+34%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
28.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+16%
Basic Materials
23.6x
+20%
5Y Avg
12.9x
+120%
PEG Ratio
1.43x
S&P 500
1.66x
-14%
Basic Materials
1.23x
+16%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+11%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+54%
5Y Avg
8.6x
+97%
Price/FCF
40.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+95%
Basic Materials
29.0x
+39%
5Y Avg
17.0x
+138%
Price/Sales
1.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-54%
Basic Materials
1.9x
-25%
5Y Avg
0.9x
+49%
Dividend Yield
1.22%
S&P 500
1.91%
-36%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-14%
5Y Avg
1.64%
-26%
| Metric | RS | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg RS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.0x | 18.8x | 14.9x+34% | — |
| Trailing PE | 28.4x | 24.4x+16% | 23.6x+20% | 12.9x+120% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.43x | 1.66x-14% | 1.23x+16% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.9x | 15.2x+11% | 11.0x+54% | 8.6x+97% |
| Price/FCF | 40.3x | 20.7x+95% | 29.0x+39% | 17.0x+138% |
| Price/Sales | 1.4x | 3.1x-54% | 1.9x-25% | 0.9x+49% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.22% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 1.64% |
RS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRS Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
RS returns 4.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$14.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$15.51
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$612M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$217M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.9× FCF
~2.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.1%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
2.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$594M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.82
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
34.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
51M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Industry cyclicality
Reliance Steel operates in the metals distribution industry, which is highly cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns, impacting demand and pricing.
High Risk
Commodity price volatility
The company's profitability is exposed to fluctuations in metal prices, which can be volatile due to global supply-demand dynamics.
Medium
Operational complexity
Managing a diverse product line of 100,000 metal products across multiple geographies introduces logistical and operational challenges.
Medium
Competitive pressures
The metals service center industry is highly competitive, with pricing and service differentiation as key battlegrounds.
Lower
Regulatory risks
Operations in multiple countries expose the company to varying regulatory environments and compliance requirements.
Lower
Financial health scrutiny
Investors may scrutinize Reliance Steel's financial health, including debt levels and cash flow stability, in uncertain economic conditions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Cyclical recovery in end-markets
Stronger-than-expected demand in steel and aluminum end-markets is driving revenue and earnings growth.
Favorable pricing dynamics
Improved pricing conditions are lifting revenue and EPS above current consensus estimates.
Positive earnings surprises
Potential for earnings to exceed expectations, leading to analyst upgrades and investor confidence.
Diverse product portfolio
The company offers a wide range of metal products and services, catering to multiple industries including aerospace, energy, and construction.
Strong financial health
Robust revenue and profit growth forecasts (12.4% and 33.2% respectively) indicate solid financial performance.
Analyst optimism
Top analysts have set a bullish price target of $358, reflecting confidence in future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$396.34
52W Range Position
85%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$260.31
+52.3% from the low
52-Week High
$419.83
-5.6% from the high
1 Month
+10.09%
3 Month
+33.93%
YTD
+34.0%
1 Year
+28.2%
3Y CAGR
+16.2%
5Y CAGR
+21.4%
10Y CAGR
+17.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.0x
vs 20.7x median
-3% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.8%
vs +3.8% median
+52% above peer median
Net Margin
5.4%
vs 5.5% median
-1% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RS RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $20.3B | 20.0x | +5.8% | 5.4% | Hold | -5.8% |
SSD SSD Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | $8.3B | 22.1x | +6.6% | 14.9% | Buy | +7.3% |
STL STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $36.2B | 15.4x | +11.5% | 7.2% | Buy | -5.9% |
CMC CMC Commercial Metals Company | $8.0B | 11.3x | +3.8% | 5.5% | Buy | +13.6% |
ZEU ZEUS Olympic Steel, Inc. | $533M | 20.7x | -1.2% | 0.7% | Buy | -14.3% |
MSM MSM MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $6.6B | 27.2x | +3.5% | 5.4% | Hold | -6.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RS Dividend and Capital Return
RS returns capital mainly through $594M/year in buybacks (2.9% buyback yield), with a modest 1.22% dividend — combining for 4.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.9%
Dividend Yield
1.22%
Payout Ratio
34.4%
How RS Splits Its Return
Div 1.22%
Buyback 2.9%
Dividend 1.22%Buybacks 2.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.82
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.1%
5Y Div CAGR
13.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$594M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
51M
At 2.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.80 | +9.1% | 3.9% | 5.6% |
| 2024 | $4.40 | +10.0% | 7.2% | 8.9% |
| 2023 | $4.00 | +14.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% |
| 2022 | $3.50 | +27.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsRS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $374, implying -5.8% from the current price of $396. The bear case scenario is $269 and the bull case is $563.
02What is the RS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RS is $374 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $390 (-1.6% from today), and the low-end target is $350 (-11.7%). The base case model target is $427.
03Is Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) stock overvalued in 2026?
RS trades at 20.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RS in 2026 are: (1) Industry cyclicality — Reliance Steel operates in the metals distribution industry, which is highly cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns, impacting demand and pricing. (2) Commodity price volatility — The company's profitability is exposed to fluctuations in metal prices, which can be volatile due to global supply-demand dynamics. (3) Operational complexity — Managing a diverse product line of 100,000 metal products across multiple geographies introduces logistical and operational challenges. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RS will report consensus revenue of $15.7B (+5.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $20.19 (+30.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $16.2B in revenue.
06When does Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) report its next earnings?
Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-22. Consensus expects EPS of $5.34 and revenue of $4.2B. Over recent quarters, RS has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. generate?
Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) generated $612M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.1%. RS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.2% yield) and share repurchases ($594M TTM).