Upside case
Bull case
$397+58.7%
STLD would need investors to value it at roughly 24x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
27
analysts
14 bullish · 1 bearish · 27 covering STLD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$235
-5.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$190 – $397
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $36.2B
STLD price targets
Three scenarios for where STLD stock could go
Current
~$250
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $250
Bear
$190
Base
$301
Bull
$397
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$301+20.4%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$190-24.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push STLD down roughly 24% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Steel Dynamics, Inc.
STLD · NASDAQBasic MaterialsSteelDecember year-end
Steel Dynamics is a leading American steel producer and metal recycler operating an integrated business model. It generates revenue primarily from steel production (~70% of sales), metals recycling (~20%), and steel fabrication (~10%), selling directly to construction, automotive, and industrial customers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its low-cost mini-mill operations—which use recycled scrap metal—and its fully integrated supply chain from recycling through fabrication.
Market Cap
$36.2B
Revenue TTM
$19.0B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
7.2%
STLD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.01/$2.24
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.74/$2.63
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.82/$1.70
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.78/$2.84
Revenue
$5.2B/$5.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.01/$2.24 | -10.3% | $4.6B/$4.7B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.74/$2.63 | +4.2% | $4.8B/$4.8B | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.82/$1.70 | +7.1% | $4.4B/$4.6B | -3.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.78/$2.84 | -2.1% | $5.2B/$5.1B | +2.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$21.2B
+11.5% YoY
FY2
$22.7B
+7.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.71
+44.7% YoY
FY2
$16.72
+21.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$665M
FCF Margin: 3.5%
Next Earnings
July 20, 2026
Expected EPS
$4.07
Expected Revenue
$5.6B
STLD beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
STLD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $19.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Steel Operations
69.9%
+7.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
U [S]
100.0%
+5.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Steel Operations is the largest disclosed segment at 69.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.1% YoY.
U [S] is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 5.9% YoY.
STLD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $230 — implies -8.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
8.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
STLD
31.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+28% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
STLD
31.3x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
+33% premium
vs STLD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.3x
vs
5Y Average
9.9x
+216% premium
Forward PE
15.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-18%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+4%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+28%
Basic Materials
23.6x
+33%
5Y Avg
9.9x
+216%
PEG Ratio
1.24x
S&P 500
1.66x
-25%
Basic Materials
1.23x
+1%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+29%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+78%
5Y Avg
7.1x
+177%
Price/FCF
72.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+249%
Basic Materials
29.0x
+149%
5Y Avg
19.1x
+277%
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-36%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+6%
5Y Avg
1.0x
+101%
Dividend Yield
0.79%
S&P 500
1.91%
-59%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-44%
5Y Avg
1.42%
-45%
| Metric | STLD | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg STLD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.4x | 18.8x-18% | 14.9x | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.3x | 24.4x+28% | 23.6x+33% | 9.9x+216% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.24x | 1.66x-25% | 1.23x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.6x | 15.2x+29% | 11.0x+78% | 7.1x+177% |
| Price/FCF | 72.2x | 20.7x+249% | 29.0x+149% | 19.1x+277% |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-36% | 1.9x | 1.0x+101% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.79% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 1.42% |
STLD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSTLD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
STLD returns 3.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$19.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
14.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.47
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$665M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$770M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.2× FCF
~5.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.3%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
2.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$901M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.96
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
24.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
145M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSTLD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Valuation de-rating
Morgan Stanley downgraded Steel Dynamics to Equal Weight, signaling a more balanced risk-reward profile despite higher earnings guidance.
High Risk
Macroeconomic demand risks
The steel sector faces neutral-to-positive dynamics in 2026, but demand remains dependent on infrastructure investments and construction recovery, which could fluctuate.
Lower
Commodity price volatility
Steel prices are influenced by raw material costs (iron, carbon, etc.), which can be volatile and impact margins.
Medium
Decarbonization pressures
The industrial landscape is shifting toward decarbonization, which may require significant capital investments or operational adjustments for steel producers.
Lower
Competitive pressures
Steel Dynamics operates in a competitive market where efficiency and pricing power are critical to maintaining profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why STLD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong financial metrics
STLD's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 18.51 and 14.29 respectively indicate solid valuation and growth potential.
Bullish analyst coverage
Gregg Jahnke's bullish thesis on Substack highlights positive sentiment and investment potential for STLD.
Steel industry demand
Steel's wide variety of applications and improved mechanical properties drive consistent demand for STLD's products.
Market position
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a key player in the steel industry, benefiting from its expertise in steel alloys and carbon content optimization.
Share price performance
STLD's share price at $127.56 reflects strong market confidence and growth trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
STLD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$249.91
52W Range Position
77%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$119.89
+108.4% from the low
52-Week High
$288.74
-13.4% from the high
1 Month
+9.33%
3 Month
+48.09%
YTD
+41.9%
1 Year
+92.1%
3Y CAGR
+35.3%
5Y CAGR
+34.0%
10Y CAGR
+25.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
STLD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.4x
vs 16.8x median
-8% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.5%
vs +5.8% median
+97% above peer median
Net Margin
7.2%
vs 5.5% median
+32% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
STL STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $36.2B | 15.4x | +11.5% | 7.2% | Buy | -5.9% |
NUE NUE Nucor Corporation | $55.5B | 16.0x | +6.7% | 6.8% | Buy | -1.7% |
RS RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $20.3B | 20.0x | +5.8% | 5.4% | Hold | -5.8% |
CMC CMC Commercial Metals Company | $8.0B | 11.3x | +3.8% | 5.5% | Buy | +13.6% |
CLF CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $7.0B | — | +7.0% | -7.9% | Hold | -0.9% |
WOR WOR Worthington Industries, Inc. | $3.0B | 17.6x | -1.2% | 8.4% | Buy | +7.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
STLD Dividend and Capital Return
STLD returns capital mainly through $901M/year in buybacks (2.5% buyback yield), with a modest 0.79% dividend — combining for 3.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 13 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.5%
Dividend Yield
0.79%
Payout Ratio
24.6%
How STLD Splits Its Return
Div 0.79%
Buyback 2.5%
Dividend 0.79%Buybacks 2.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.96
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
13Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.7%
5Y Div CAGR
14.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$901M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
145M
At 2.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.06 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.00 | +8.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
| 2024 | $1.84 | +8.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% |
| 2023 | $1.70 | +25.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% |
| 2022 | $1.36 | +30.8% | 10.0% | 11.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsSTLD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $235, implying -5.9% from the current price of $250. The bear case scenario is $190 and the bull case is $397.
02What is the STLD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for STLD is $235 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $291 (+16.4% from today), and the low-end target is $190 (-24.0%). The base case model target is $301.
03Is Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) stock overvalued in 2026?
STLD trades at 15.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for STLD in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic demand risks — The steel sector faces neutral-to-positive dynamics in 2026, but demand remains dependent on infrastructure investments and construction recovery, which could fluctuate. (2) Valuation de-rating — Morgan Stanley downgraded Steel Dynamics to Equal Weight, signaling a more balanced risk-reward profile despite higher earnings guidance. (3) Decarbonization pressures — The industrial landscape is shifting toward decarbonization, which may require significant capital investments or operational adjustments for steel producers. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates STLD will report consensus revenue of $21.2B (+11.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.71 (+44.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $22.7B in revenue.
06When does Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) report its next earnings?
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-20. Consensus expects EPS of $4.07 and revenue of $5.6B. Over recent quarters, STLD has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Steel Dynamics, Inc. generate?
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) generated $665M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.5%. STLD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($901M TTM).