Upside case
Bull case
$1217+412.6%
STLD would need investors to value it at roughly 82x earnings — about 66x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
27
analysts
15 bullish · 1 bearish · 27 covering STLD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
11
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$188
-20.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$198 – $1217
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $34.4B
STLD price targets
Three scenarios for where STLD stock could go
Current
~$237
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $237
Bear
$198
Base
$389
Bull
$1217
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$389+64.0%
At 26x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$198-16.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push STLD down roughly 17% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Steel Dynamics, Inc.
STLD · NASDAQBasic MaterialsSteelDecember year-end
Steel Dynamics is a leading American steel producer and metal recycler operating an integrated business model. It generates revenue primarily from steel production (~70% of sales), metals recycling (~20%), and steel fabrication (~10%), selling directly to construction, automotive, and industrial customers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its low-cost mini-mill operations—which use recycled scrap metal—and its fully integrated supply chain from recycling through fabrication.
Market Cap
$34.4B
Revenue TTM
$19.0B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
7.2%
STLD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.01/$2.24
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.74/$2.63
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.82/$1.70
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.78/$2.83
Revenue
$5.2B/$5.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.01/$2.24 | -10.3% | $4.6B/$4.7B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.74/$2.63 | +4.2% | $4.8B/$4.8B | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.82/$1.70 | +7.1% | $4.4B/$4.6B | -3.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.78/$2.83 | -1.8% | $5.2B/$5.1B | +2.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.2B
+6.0% YoY
FY2
$20.6B
+2.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.87
+25.3% YoY
FY2
$13.10
+10.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$665M
FCF Margin: 3.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
STLD beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
STLD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $19.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Steel Operations
69.9%
+7.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
U [S]
100.0%
+5.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Steel Operations is the largest disclosed segment at 69.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.1% YoY.
U [S] is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 5.9% YoY.
STLD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $168 — implies -26.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
26.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
STLD
29.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+18% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
STLD
29.7x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
+34% premium
vs STLD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.7x
vs
5Y Average
9.9x
+200% premium
Forward PE
15.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-16%
Basic Materials
15.2x
+5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
+18%
Basic Materials
22.3x
+34%
5Y Avg
9.9x
+200%
PEG Ratio
1.18x
S&P 500
1.72x
-31%
Basic Materials
1.17x
+0%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+23%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+70%
5Y Avg
7.1x
+165%
Price/FCF
68.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
+225%
Basic Materials
25.6x
+167%
5Y Avg
19.1x
+258%
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-39%
Basic Materials
1.9x
0%
5Y Avg
1.0x
+91%
Dividend Yield
0.83%
S&P 500
1.87%
-56%
Basic Materials
1.32%
-38%
5Y Avg
1.42%
-42%
| Metric | STLD | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg STLD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.9x | 19.1x-16% | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.7x | 25.1x+18% | 22.3x+34% | 9.9x+200% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.18x | 1.72x-31% | 1.17x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.7x | 15.2x+23% | 11.0x+70% | 7.1x+165% |
| Price/FCF | 68.6x | 21.1x+225% | 25.6x+167% | 19.1x+258% |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-39% | 1.9x | 1.0x+91% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.83% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 1.42% |
STLD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSTLD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
STLD returns 3.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$19.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
14.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.47
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$665M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$770M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.2× FCF
~5.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.4%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
2.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$901M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.96
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
24.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
145M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSTLD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Margin Compression
In 2025, Steel Dynamics saw its metal spread narrow as Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices fell while scrap costs stayed elevated. If scrap prices rise further amid global demand, the company’s profit margins could be squeezed, potentially eroding earnings growth.
High Risk
Industry Cyclicality
A large portion of STLD’s revenue comes from non‑residential construction, making it vulnerable to economic downturns and higher interest rates that slow commercial building projects. A recession or sustained slowdown in construction and automotive demand could sharply reduce steel sales across key markets.
High Risk
Execution Risk – Aluminum Mill
The firm’s multi‑billion‑dollar aluminum mill is expected to reach 90% utilization by late 2026. Delays or integration challenges could derail the diversification strategy and diminish the anticipated return on this capital investment.
Medium
Competitive Landscape
STLD competes with North American peers such as Nucor, Cleveland‑Cliffs, and United States Steel. Intense rivalry could pressure pricing and margin retention, especially if competitors expand capacity or lower costs.
Medium
Price & Cost Volatility
Fluctuations in steel prices and raw material costs expose STLD to the risk of not fully passing increased costs to customers or maintaining stable pricing during downturns, potentially compressing earnings.
Medium
Operational Hurdles – Sinton Facility
The Sinton plant has operated below full capacity, impacting EBITDA. Continued under‑utilization could limit revenue growth and reduce overall profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why STLD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Sinton Sheet Mill Nearing Full Capacity
Steel Dynamics has invested heavily in the new Sinton sheet mill, which is approaching full production capacity. The facility is expected to significantly boost earnings and capture additional market share as it ramps up output.
Aluminum Segment EBITDA Positive
The company’s expansion into aluminum has already yielded an EBITDA‑positive segment. Successful production and qualification of various aluminum products provide a hedge against steel market volatility and open new customer bases.
2025 Steel Demand & Pricing Upside
Steel Dynamics benefits from a strong fabrication backlog and projected improvements in steel demand and pricing for 2025. Recent Section 232 tariffs on coated steel products are expected to protect domestic producers and support favorable pricing.
Record Shipments & Net Sales 2025
The firm has demonstrated solid operational performance with record steel shipments and significant net sales in 2025. Strong free‑cash‑flow generation, ample liquidity, and a robust balance sheet provide financial flexibility.
Share Buybacks Reduce Outstanding Shares 4%
Steel Dynamics has a history of returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases and a growing dividend. In 2025, the company reduced its share count by over 4% through aggressive buybacks.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
STLD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$237.46
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$119.89
+98.1% from the low
52-Week High
$238.68
-0.5% from the high
1 Month
+34.52%
3 Month
+23.02%
YTD
+34.9%
1 Year
+78.4%
3Y CAGR
+34.2%
5Y CAGR
+31.7%
10Y CAGR
+25.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
STLD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.9x
vs 16.2x median
-2% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.0%
vs +3.0% median
+102% above peer median
Net Margin
7.2%
vs 5.5% median
+32% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
STL STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $34.4B | 15.9x | +6.0% | 7.2% | Buy | -20.7% |
NUE NUE Nucor Corporation | $52.9B | 16.5x | +4.4% | 6.8% | Buy | -4.0% |
RS RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $19.0B | 19.1x | +3.0% | 5.4% | Hold | -2.7% |
CMC CMC Commercial Metals Company | $7.7B | 10.7x | +2.4% | 5.5% | Buy | +18.6% |
CLF CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $6.1B | — | +3.7% | -7.9% | Hold | +4.3% |
WOR WOR Worthington Industries, Inc. | $2.7B | 15.9x | -15.5% | 8.4% | Buy | +22.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
STLD Dividend and Capital Return
STLD returns capital mainly through $901M/year in buybacks (2.6% buyback yield), with a modest 0.83% dividend — combining for 3.4% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.6%
Dividend Yield
0.83%
Payout Ratio
24.6%
How STLD Splits Its Return
Div 0.83%
Buyback 2.6%
Dividend 0.83%Buybacks 2.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.96
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.7%
5Y Div CAGR
14.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$901M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
145M
At 2.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.53 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.00 | +8.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
| 2024 | $1.84 | +8.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% |
| 2023 | $1.70 | +25.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% |
| 2022 | $1.36 | +30.8% | 10.0% | 11.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsSTLD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $188, implying -20.7% from the current price of $237. The bear case scenario is $198 and the bull case is $1217.
02What is the STLD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for STLD is $188 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $207 (-12.8% from today), and the low-end target is $165 (-30.5%). The base case model target is $389.
03Is Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) stock overvalued in 2026?
STLD trades at 15.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for STLD in 2026 are: (1) Margin Compression — In 2025, Steel Dynamics saw its metal spread narrow as Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices fell while scrap costs stayed elevated. (2) Industry Cyclicality — A large portion of STLD’s revenue comes from non‑residential construction, making it vulnerable to economic downturns and higher interest rates that slow commercial building projects. (3) Execution Risk – Aluminum Mill — The firm’s multi‑billion‑dollar aluminum mill is expected to reach 90% utilization by late 2026. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates STLD will report consensus revenue of $20.2B (+6.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.87 (+25.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.6B in revenue.
06When does Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for STLD is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Steel Dynamics, Inc. generate?
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) generated $665M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.5%. STLD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($901M TTM).