Upside case
Bull case
$227+12.6%
ATI would need investors to value it at roughly 51x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 46x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
ATI Inc. (ATI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
19 bullish · 1 bearish · 29 covering ATI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
9
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$175
-13.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$108 – $227
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
45.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $27.6B
ATI price targets
Three scenarios for where ATI stock could go
Current
~$201
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $201
Bear
$108
Base
$172
Bull
$227
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$172-14.6%
At 39x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$108-46.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 21x multiple contraction could push ATI down roughly 46% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
ATI Inc.
ATI · NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationDecember year-end
ATI Inc. is a specialty materials manufacturer that produces high-performance alloys and components for demanding industrial applications. It generates revenue primarily through two segments: High Performance Materials & Components (~60% of sales) serving aerospace and defense markets, and Advanced Alloys & Solutions (~40%) focused on energy and industrial sectors. The company's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary metallurgical expertise and long-standing relationships with aerospace and defense contractors that require certified, mission-critical materials.
Market Cap
$27.6B
Revenue TTM
$4.6B
Net Income TTM
$426M
Net Margin
9.3%
ATI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.74/$0.72
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.85/$0.73
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.93/$0.89
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.00/$0.88
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.74/$0.72 | +2.8% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.85/$0.73 | +16.0% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.93/$0.89 | +4.5% | $1.2B/$1.2B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.00/$0.88 | +14.0% | $1.2B/$1.2B | -3.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.8B
+5.0% YoY
FY2
$5.1B
+6.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.45
+12.9% YoY
FY2
$3.82
+10.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$552M
FCF Margin: 12.0%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.99
Expected Revenue
$1.2B
ATI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ATI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
High Performance Materials & Components
53.2%
+5.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
57.5%
+4.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
High Performance Materials & Components is the largest disclosed segment at 53.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 57.5%, up 4.5% YoY.
ATI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $216 — implies +7.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
7.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ATI
70.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+189% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
ATI
70.6x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+176% premium
vs ATI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
70.6x
vs
5Y Average
20.9x
+238% premium
Forward PE
45.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+142%
Industrials
21.2x
+115%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
70.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+189%
Industrials
25.6x
+176%
5Y Avg
20.9x
+238%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Industrials
1.65x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
35.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+136%
Industrials
13.9x
+158%
5Y Avg
15.0x
+139%
Price/FCF
82.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+299%
Industrials
20.0x
+312%
5Y Avg
48.7x
+70%
Price/Sales
6.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+94%
Industrials
1.6x
+285%
5Y Avg
1.8x
+233%
Dividend Yield
0.05%
S&P 500
1.91%
-98%
Industrials
1.21%
-96%
5Y Avg
0.08%
-42%
| Metric | ATI | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg ATI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 45.6x | 18.8x+142% | 21.2x+115% | — |
| Trailing PE | 70.6x | 24.4x+189% | 25.6x+176% | 20.9x+238% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.8x | 15.2x+136% | 13.9x+158% | 15.0x+139% |
| Price/FCF | 82.6x | 20.7x+299% | 20.0x+312% | 48.7x+70% |
| Price/Sales | 6.0x | 3.1x+94% | 1.6x+285% | 1.8x+233% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.05% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 0.08% |
ATI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolATI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ATI generates $552M in free cash flow at a 12.0% margin — 14.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
22.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.05
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$552M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$417M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.8× FCF
~2.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.8%
Dividend
0.0%
Buyback
1.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$470M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.09
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
3.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
137M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageATI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Earnings Volatility
ATI's stock price is tied to earnings performance and analyst validation, which could lead to volatility if expectations are not met.
High Risk
Share Repurchase Risk
ATI's aggressive share repurchase program ($655M utilized of $700M authorized) may limit financial flexibility if market conditions worsen.
Medium
Aerospace & Defense Dependence
ATI's 2026 guidance relies heavily on aerospace and defense momentum, making it vulnerable to sector-specific downturns.
Lower
Valuation Uncertainty
Stock price projections for ATI show a wide range ($273.36-$284.52), indicating potential valuation risks if growth underperforms.
Medium
EBITDA Target Risk
Achieving the 2026 adjusted EBITDA target ($975M-$1.025B) depends on sustained segment dominance, which may face competitive or macroeconomic pressures.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ATI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Aerospace and defense growth
ATI is a global producer of high-performance materials for aerospace and defense markets, with continued expansion in capacity and strong demand drivers.
Share repurchase expansion
ATI increased its share repurchase authorization by $500 million to $1.2 billion, signaling strong capital allocation and confidence in future cash flows.
Margin expansion and pricing power
Recent results show margin expansion and specialty-alloy pricing strength, supporting earnings growth and analyst optimism.
Strong cash generation
Improved cash flow generation underpins the bull case, enabling buybacks and investments in high-growth segments.
Analyst price target upside
One analyst cites a fair value of $178.67, suggesting significant upside potential based on ATI's execution and market positioning.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ATI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$201.34
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$70.42
+185.9% from the low
52-Week High
$203.59
-1.1% from the high
1 Month
+34.57%
3 Month
+34.55%
YTD
+68.9%
1 Year
+145.0%
3Y CAGR
+70.9%
5Y CAGR
+57.1%
10Y CAGR
+30.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ATI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
45.6x
vs 42.8x median
+6% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.0%
vs +6.7% median
-25% below peer median
Net Margin
9.3%
vs 7.2% median
+28% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ATI ATI ATI Inc. | $27.6B | 45.6x | +5.0% | 9.3% | Buy | -13.1% |
HWM HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc. | $111.1B | 54.9x | +8.6% | 20.2% | Buy | +7.1% |
CRS CRS Carpenter Technology Corporation | $29.1B | 55.4x | +6.7% | 15.8% | Buy | -20.6% |
MTR MTRN Materion Corporation | $5.7B | 42.8x | +5.9% | 4.0% | Buy | -41.5% |
NUE NUE Nucor Corporation | $55.5B | 16.0x | +6.7% | 6.8% | Buy | -1.7% |
STL STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $36.2B | 15.4x | +11.5% | 7.2% | Buy | -5.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ATI Dividend and Capital Return
ATI returns capital mainly through $470M/year in buybacks (1.7% buyback yield), with a modest 0.05% dividend — combining for 1.8% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.7%
Dividend Yield
0.05%
Payout Ratio
3.3%
How ATI Splits Its Return
Buyback 1.7%
Dividend 0.05%Buybacks 1.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.09
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-23.7%
5Y Div CAGR
-15.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$470M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
137M
At 1.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $0.24 | -61.3% | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| 2015 | $0.62 | -13.9% | 0.1% | 5.6% |
| 2014 | $0.72 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.2% |
| 2013 | $0.72 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.2% |
| 2012 | $0.72 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 2.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsATI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is ATI Inc. (ATI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
ATI Inc. (ATI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $175, implying -13.1% from the current price of $201. The bear case scenario is $108 and the bull case is $227.
02What is the ATI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ATI is $175 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $194 (-3.6% from today), and the low-end target is $141 (-30.0%). The base case model target is $172.
03Is ATI Inc. (ATI) stock overvalued in 2026?
ATI trades at 45.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for ATI Inc. (ATI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ATI in 2026 are: (1) Share Repurchase Risk — ATI's aggressive share repurchase program ($655M utilized of $700M authorized) may limit financial flexibility if market conditions worsen. (2) Earnings Volatility — ATI's stock price is tied to earnings performance and analyst validation, which could lead to volatility if expectations are not met. (3) Aerospace & Defense Dependence — ATI's 2026 guidance relies heavily on aerospace and defense momentum, making it vulnerable to sector-specific downturns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is ATI Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ATI will report consensus revenue of $4.8B (+5.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.45 (+12.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.1B in revenue.
06When does ATI Inc. (ATI) report its next earnings?
ATI Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $0.99 and revenue of $1.2B. Over recent quarters, ATI has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does ATI Inc. generate?
ATI Inc. (ATI) generated $552M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.0%. ATI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.0% yield) and share repurchases ($470M TTM).