Upside case
Bull case
$18-30.3%
The bull case prices NWSA at 17x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
News Corporation (NWSA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
21 bullish · 1 bearish · 28 covering NWSA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
6
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$32
+23.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$5 – $18
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.9B
NWSA price targets
Three scenarios for where NWSA stock could go
Current
~$26
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $26
Bear
$5
Base
$23
Bull
$18
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$23-13.0%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$5-81.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 20x multiple contraction could push NWSA down roughly 82% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
News Corporation
NWSA · NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentJune year-end
News Corporation is a global media and information services company that creates and distributes authoritative content across newspapers, digital platforms, books, and video services. It generates revenue primarily through digital real estate services (~30% of revenue), subscription video services (~25%), Dow Jones business information (~15%), book publishing (~15%), and news media advertising and subscriptions. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of iconic media brands—including The Wall Street Journal, The Times, and HarperCollins—which create a diversified content ecosystem with strong subscriber loyalty.
Market Cap
$14.9B
Revenue TTM
$8.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
12.2%
NWSA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+26.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.17/$0.19
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.19/$0.19
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.22/$0.18
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.40/$0.33
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.17/$0.19 | -10.5% | $2.0B/$2.1B | -4.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.19/$0.19 | +0.0% | $2.1B/$2.1B | -0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.22/$0.18 | +22.2% | $2.1B/$2.3B | -6.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.40/$0.33 | +21.2% | $2.4B/$2.3B | +2.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.8B
-1.0% YoY
FY2
$8.7B
-0.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.77
-5.5% YoY
FY2
$1.80
+1.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$652M
FCF Margin: 7.4%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.16
Expected Revenue
$2.1B
NWSA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NWSA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Dow Jones Segment
27.6%
+4.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States And Canada
48.8%
+2.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Dow Jones Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 27.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.5% YoY.
United States And Canada is the largest reported region at 48.8%, up 2.8% YoY.
NWSA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $34 — implies +30.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
30.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NWSA
12.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
50% discount
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
NWSA
12.7x
vs
Communication Services
15.5x
19% discount
vs NWSA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.7x
vs
5Y Average
42.0x
70% discount
Forward PE
25.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+31%
Communication Services
13.1x
+91%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-50%
Communication Services
15.5x
-19%
5Y Avg
42.0x
-70%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Communication Services
0.66x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-28%
Communication Services
8.7x
+25%
5Y Avg
11.9x
-8%
Price/FCF
20.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
-4%
Communication Services
11.6x
+77%
5Y Avg
19.5x
+5%
Price/Sales
1.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-44%
Communication Services
1.0x
+68%
5Y Avg
1.6x
+12%
Dividend Yield
1.24%
S&P 500
1.88%
-34%
Communication Services
3.38%
-63%
5Y Avg
1.34%
-7%
| Metric | NWSA | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg NWSA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.0x | 19.1x+31% | 13.1x+91% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.7x | 25.2x-50% | 15.5x-19% | 42.0x-70% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.66x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9x | 15.3x-28% | 8.7x+25% | 11.9x |
| Price/FCF | 20.5x | 21.3x | 11.6x+77% | 19.5x |
| Price/Sales | 1.8x | 3.1x-44% | 1.0x+68% | 1.6x+12% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.24% | 1.88% | 3.38% | 1.34% |
NWSA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNWSA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
NWSA returns 2.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
85.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.87
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$652M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$537M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.8× FCF
~0.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.2%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$150M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.32
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
15.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
570M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNWSA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Decline of Print Revenue
Traditional print advertising revenue is declining significantly, impacting overall financial performance. Although circulation and subscription revenues have seen some growth, they are not sufficient to fully offset the negative effects of slower print economics.
High Risk
Media Disruption and Competition
The media industry is experiencing substantial disruption as consumers shift from legacy media to digital platforms. News Corp faces intense competition, necessitating continuous investment in technology and user experience to retain its audience.
High Risk
Digital Real Estate Cyclicality
The digital real estate segment, while strong, is vulnerable to the cyclical nature of the housing market. Fluctuations in mortgage rates and property activity can significantly impact traffic and revenue for platforms like Realtor.com.
Medium
Legal and Reputational Risks
News Corp is currently facing legal challenges, including a copyright lawsuit from Brave Software. The outcomes of these cases could have significant legal and reputational implications for the company.
Medium
Execution Risk
There is notable execution risk in areas such as book publishing and new monetization strategies. For instance, HarperCollins has recently experienced an inventory write-off that adversely affected its profitability.
Medium
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Broader macroeconomic uncertainties pose risks to advertising cycles and overall business performance. Economic downturns can lead to reduced advertising budgets, impacting revenue.
Lower
Concentration in Dow Jones
While the Dow Jones segment is high-quality, there are risks associated with increasing performance expectations. Any slowdown in enterprise demand, subscription growth, or pricing momentum could hinder its valuation.
Lower
AI Impact on Content Creation
The rise of AI in content creation presents both opportunities and challenges for News Corp. The company must manage intellectual property carefully while addressing the potential for misinformation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NWSA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
AI Content Licensing and Partnerships
A landmark deal with OpenAI, valued at over $250 million over five years, is a significant catalyst. This agreement allows OpenAI access to News Corp's content, including archives from publications like The Wall Street Journal and Barron's, transforming its valuation from a legacy media company to a player in digital innovation.
Dow Jones's Growth and Transformation
Dow Jones is undergoing a transformation into a news, enterprise data, and information services powerhouse, with a path to achieve $1 billion in annual EBITDA within five years. This segment is a significant contributor to News Corp's profitability, accounting for 89% of profits in Q1 Fiscal 2026.
Diversified and Resilient Assets
News Corp's portfolio includes strong digital real estate services, book publishing, and its news media segment, which are seen as fortifying revenue streams. Digital real estate revenues have shown growth, and Dow Jones has delivered record results with increasing digital advertising.
Market Re-rating Potential
Analysts believe News Corp is no longer priced as a distressed legacy media stock but has not yet achieved a premium information services multiple. The market is beginning to recognize the improving quality of its portfolio, leading to potential rerating as higher-quality assets drive growth.
Financial Performance
In fiscal Q2 2026, News Corp reported a 6% increase in revenue to $2.36 billion, driven by Dow Jones, Digital Real Estate, and Book Publishing. Total segment EBITDA rose 9% to $521 million, indicating improved profitability margins and a robust cash position.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NWSA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$26.20
52W Range Position
43%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.20
+18.0% from the low
52-Week High
$31.61
-17.1% from the high
1 Month
+7.07%
3 Month
+16.44%
YTD
+0.0%
1 Year
-5.5%
3Y CAGR
+15.2%
5Y CAGR
+0.2%
10Y CAGR
+7.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NWSA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.0x
vs 30.7x median
-19% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.0%
vs +0.0% median
-4020% below peer median
Net Margin
12.2%
vs 1.9% median
+525% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NWS NWSA News Corporation | $14.9B | 25.0x | -1.0% | 12.2% | Buy | +23.7% |
NYT NYT The New York Times Company | $13.5B | 30.7x | +7.9% | 13.2% | Hold | -19.9% |
GCI GCI Gannett Co., Inc. | $877M | 51.0x | -4.0% | 4.1% | Hold | -6.9% |
THS THS TreeHouse Foods, Inc. | $1.5B | 12.8x | +0.0% | -7.2% | Hold | -5.9% |
LEE LEE Lee Enterprises, Incorporated | $51M | — | -5.3% | -4.8% | — | — |
WBD WBD Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. | $68.2B | — | +10.7% | 1.9% | Hold | +10.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NWSA Dividend and Capital Return
NWSA returns 2.3% total yield, led by a 1.28% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.0%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
1.28%
Payout Ratio
15.7%
How NWSA Splits Its Return
Div 1.28%
Buyback 1.0%
Dividend 1.28%Buybacks 1.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.32
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
0.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$150M
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
570M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 2.0% |
| 2024 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.8% |
| 2023 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 2.2% | 3.7% |
| 2022 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 1.9% | 3.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsNWSA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is News Corporation (NWSA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
News Corporation (NWSA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $32, implying +23.7% from the current price of $26. The bear case scenario is $5 and the bull case is $18.
02What is the NWSA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NWSA is $32 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $32 (+23.7% from today), and the low-end target is $32 (+23.7%). The base case model target is $23.
03Is News Corporation (NWSA) stock overvalued in 2026?
NWSA trades at 25.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for News Corporation (NWSA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NWSA in 2026 are: (1) Decline of Print Revenue — Traditional print advertising revenue is declining significantly, impacting overall financial performance. (2) Media Disruption and Competition — The media industry is experiencing substantial disruption as consumers shift from legacy media to digital platforms. (3) Digital Real Estate Cyclicality — The digital real estate segment, while strong, is vulnerable to the cyclical nature of the housing market. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is News Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NWSA will report consensus revenue of $8.8B (-1.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.77 (-5.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.7B in revenue.
06When does News Corporation (NWSA) report its next earnings?
News Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.16 and revenue of $2.1B. Over recent quarters, NWSA has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does News Corporation generate?
News Corporation (NWSA) generated $652M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.4%. NWSA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.3% yield) and share repurchases ($150M TTM).