Upside case
Bull case
$82+5.9%
OKTA would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 1x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Okta, Inc. (OKTA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
51
analysts
36 bullish · 2 bearish · 51 covering OKTA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
36
Hold
13
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$102
+31.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $82
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.0B
OKTA price targets
Three scenarios for where OKTA stock could go
Current
~$77
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $77
Base
$219
Bull
$82
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$219+182.4%
At 58x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Okta, Inc.
OKTA · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureJanuary year-end
Okta is a cloud-based identity and access management platform that helps organizations securely connect people to technology. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its identity cloud services — including single sign-on, multi-factor authentication, and lifecycle management — with enterprise customers paying annual contracts. The company's moat lies in its extensive network effects, as its platform becomes more valuable as more applications integrate with it, creating switching costs for customers.
Market Cap
$14.0B
Revenue TTM
$2.9B
Net Income TTM
$235M
Net Margin
8.1%
OKTA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+24.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.86/$0.77
Revenue
$688M/$680M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.91/$0.85
Revenue
$728M/$712M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.82/$0.76
Revenue
$742M/$731M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.90/$0.85
Revenue
$761M/$750M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.86/$0.77 | +11.7% | $688M/$680M | +1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.91/$0.85 | +7.4% | $728M/$712M | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.82/$0.76 | +8.2% | $742M/$731M | +1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.90/$0.85 | +6.4% | $761M/$750M | +1.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.3B
+11.7% YoY
FY2
$3.7B
+14.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.23
+147.9% YoY
FY2
$3.70
+14.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$900M
FCF Margin: 30.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
OKTA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
OKTA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $2.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Subscription and Circulation
97.8%
+11.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
79.5%
+12.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Subscription and Circulation is the largest disclosed segment at 97.8% of FY 2026 revenue, up 11.7% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 79.5%, up 12.6% YoY.
OKTA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $236 — implies +211.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
211.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
OKTA
59.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+134% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
OKTA
59.1x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+115% premium
vs OKTA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
59.1x
vs
5Y Average
64.5x
8% discount
Forward PE
20.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+7%
Technology
21.7x
-6%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
59.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
+134%
Technology
27.5x
+115%
5Y Avg
64.5x
-8%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
54.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
+257%
Technology
17.4x
+213%
5Y Avg
59.1x
-8%
Price/FCF
15.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
-28%
Technology
19.8x
-22%
5Y Avg
62.9x
-75%
Price/Sales
4.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+53%
Technology
2.4x
+98%
5Y Avg
9.3x
-48%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | OKTA | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg OKTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.4x | 19.1x | 21.7x | — |
| Trailing PE | 59.1x | 25.2x+134% | 27.5x+115% | 64.5x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 54.4x | 15.3x+257% | 17.4x+213% | 59.1x |
| Price/FCF | 15.4x | 21.3x-28% | 19.8x-22% | 62.9x-75% |
| Price/Sales | 4.8x | 3.1x+53% | 2.4x+98% | 9.3x-48% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
OKTA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolOKTA Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
OKTA generates $900M in free cash flow at a 30.8% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
77.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.30
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$900M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
30.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$858M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$436M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
3.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$73M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
179M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageOKTA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Cybersecurity Breaches
Okta has faced significant security incidents, including breaches by the Lapsus$ group and phishing campaigns like 0ktapus. A breach of its support unit in October 2023 exposed its entire customer base to risks such as PII exposure and account takeovers.
High Risk
Profitability Challenges
Despite showing a path to non-GAAP profitability, Okta has reported GAAP net losses in several quarters. The deceleration in revenue growth could challenge its ability to sustain top-line growth, impacting investor confidence.
High Risk
Regulatory Scrutiny
As an identity management provider, Okta is subject to various data protection laws. Breaches can lead to significant regulatory scrutiny and penalties, which could adversely affect its financial standing.
Medium
Debt Management
Okta has outstanding convertible bonds, and servicing this debt may require significant cash flow. The conversion of these notes could dilute existing stockholders' ownership, impacting share value.
Medium
Intensifying Competition
Okta faces strong competition from established players like Microsoft and specialized IAM vendors. The pressure from hyperscalers bundling identity services could hinder Okta's market share and growth potential.
Medium
Market Expectations
Okta's high price-to-earnings ratio reflects significant market expectations for future growth. Failure to meet these expectations could lead to a decline in stock price.
Lower
Third-Party Risks
The interconnected nature of the cybersecurity ecosystem means that breaches at Okta can have downstream effects on its customers and partners, as evidenced by incidents affecting companies like 1Password and Cloudflare.
Lower
Compliance Obligations
Organizations rely on Okta to meet their regulatory and compliance obligations. Any failure on Okta's part to maintain robust security could impact its customers' compliance efforts.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why OKTA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Leadership and Competitive Advantages
Okta is a recognized leader in the Identity as a Service (IDaaS) market, offering a comprehensive and cloud-native platform. Its strengths include a broad product portfolio, high customer retention rates, and a large global customer base, bolstered by the acquisition of Auth0, which expanded its reach into customer identity management.
Improving Financial Performance and Profitability
Okta has demonstrated a shift towards profitable growth, with fiscal year 2026 showing significant increases in GAAP net income and non-GAAP operating income. Non-GAAP operating margins reached 26%, and free cash flow generation has been strong, with margins around 30%.
Growth Strategies and Future Opportunities
Okta is pursuing growth through international expansion, product and service enhancements, and a partner-first strategy. The launch of 'Okta for AI Agents' positions the company to secure AI agents, recognizing the critical need for identity management in the evolving AI landscape.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
OKTA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$77.47
52W Range Position
23%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$62.66
+23.6% from the low
52-Week High
$127.57
-39.3% from the high
1 Month
-3.84%
3 Month
-10.69%
YTD
-7.4%
1 Year
-33.8%
3Y CAGR
-0.8%
5Y CAGR
-19.9%
10Y CAGR
+12.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
OKTA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.4x
vs 58.2x median
-65% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.7%
vs +23.5% median
-50% below peer median
Net Margin
8.1%
vs -3.8% median
+311% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OKT OKTA Okta, Inc. | $14.0B | 20.4x | +11.7% | 8.1% | Buy | +31.4% |
SAI SAIL SailPoint, Inc. | $6.5B | — | +27.2% | -29.2% | Buy | +85.0% |
CYB CYBR CyberArk Software Ltd. | $20.6B | 81.9x | +28.5% | -10.8% | Buy | +12.3% |
VRN VRNT Verint Systems Inc. | $1.2B | 7.0x | +0.2% | 6.9% | Hold | +58.8% |
ZS ZS Zscaler, Inc. | $22.3B | 34.6x | +17.7% | -2.3% | Buy | +99.7% |
CRW CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $118.6B | 96.2x | +23.5% | -3.8% | Buy | +12.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
OKTA Dividend and Capital Return
OKTA returns 0.5% annually — null% through dividends and 0.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$73M
Estimated Shares Retired
942.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
179M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsOKTA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Okta, Inc. (OKTA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 36 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $102, implying +31.4% from the current price of $77.
02What is the OKTA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for OKTA is $102 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $134 (+73.0% from today), and the low-end target is $60 (-22.5%). The base case model target is $219.
03Is Okta, Inc. (OKTA) stock overvalued in 2026?
OKTA trades at 20.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Okta, Inc. (OKTA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for OKTA in 2026 are: (1) Cybersecurity Breaches — Okta has faced significant security incidents, including breaches by the Lapsus$ group and phishing campaigns like 0ktapus. (2) Profitability Challenges — Despite showing a path to non-GAAP profitability, Okta has reported GAAP net losses in several quarters. (3) Regulatory Scrutiny — As an identity management provider, Okta is subject to various data protection laws. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Okta, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates OKTA will report consensus revenue of $3.3B (+11.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.23 (+147.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.7B in revenue.
06When does Okta, Inc. (OKTA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for OKTA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Okta, Inc. generate?
Okta, Inc. (OKTA) generated $900M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 30.8%. OKTA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($73M TTM).