Upside case
Bull case
$159+35.2%
OKTA would need investors to value it at roughly 41x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 31x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Okta, Inc. (OKTA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
51
analysts
36 bullish · 2 bearish · 51 covering OKTA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
36
Hold
13
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$113
-3.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$76 – $159
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
30.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.6B
OKTA price targets
Three scenarios for where OKTA stock could go
Current
~$118
Confidence
73 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $118
Bear
$76
Base
$121
Bull
$159
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$121+2.6%
This is close to how the market is already pricing OKTA — at roughly 31x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$76-35.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push OKTA down roughly 35% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Okta, Inc.
OKTA · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureJanuary year-end
Okta is a cloud-based identity and access management platform that helps organizations securely connect people to technology. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its identity cloud services — including single sign-on, multi-factor authentication, and lifecycle management — with enterprise customers paying annual contracts. The company's moat lies in its extensive network effects, as its platform becomes more valuable as more applications integrate with it, creating switching costs for customers.
Market Cap
$19.6B
Revenue TTM
$3.0B
Net Income TTM
$247M
Net Margin
8.2%
OKTA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+18.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.91/$0.85
Revenue
$728M/$712M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.82/$0.76
Revenue
$742M/$731M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.90/$0.85
Revenue
$761M/$750M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.91/$0.85
Revenue
$765M/$752M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.91/$0.85 | +7.4% | $728M/$712M | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.82/$0.76 | +8.2% | $742M/$731M | +1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.90/$0.85 | +6.4% | $761M/$750M | +1.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.91/$0.85 | +6.7% | $765M/$752M | +1.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.4B
+11.8% YoY
FY2
$3.6B
+8.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.89
+107.9% YoY
FY2
$2.69
-7.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$938M
FCF Margin: 31.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
OKTA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
OKTA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $2.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Subscription and Circulation
97.8%
+11.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
79.5%
+12.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Subscription and Circulation is the largest disclosed segment at 97.8% of FY 2026 revenue, up 11.7% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 79.5%, up 12.6% YoY.
OKTA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $426 — implies +261.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
261.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
OKTA
89.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+268% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
OKTA
89.9x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+210% premium
vs OKTA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
89.9x
vs
5Y Average
64.5x
+39% premium
Forward PE
30.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+63%
Technology
22.3x
+38%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
89.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
+268%
Technology
29.0x
+210%
5Y Avg
64.5x
+39%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
76.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+405%
Technology
16.6x
+362%
5Y Avg
59.1x
+30%
Price/FCF
21.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+4%
Technology
19.2x
+13%
5Y Avg
62.9x
-66%
Price/Sales
6.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+117%
Technology
2.4x
+175%
5Y Avg
9.3x
-28%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | OKTA | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg OKTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 30.6x | 18.8x+63% | 22.3x+38% | — |
| Trailing PE | 89.9x | 24.4x+268% | 29.0x+210% | 64.5x+39% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 76.8x | 15.2x+405% | 16.6x+362% | 59.1x+30% |
| Price/FCF | 21.6x | 20.7x | 19.2x+13% | 62.9x-66% |
| Price/Sales | 6.7x | 3.1x+117% | 2.4x+175% | 9.3x-28% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
OKTA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolOKTA Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
OKTA generates $938M in free cash flow at a 31.3% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
77.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.39
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$938M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
31.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$858M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$436M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
3.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$73M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
166M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageOKTA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
The Price/Sales ratio of 4.86 and EV to EBITDA of 41.95 indicate a potentially overvalued stock relative to its sales and earnings.
High Risk
Technical overextension
With the stock trading near its 52-week high, there is a risk of technical overextension.
High Risk
Earnings miss risk
Trailing P/E of 83.3x prices in significant growth — any miss could trigger a sharp selloff.
Medium
Market sentiment shift
Despite strong product adoption, the stock price has only appreciated by 0.22% since previous coverage, indicating potential market skepticism.
Lower
Competitive pressures
Okta operates in a competitive identity and access management space, which could pressure margins and growth.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why OKTA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Leadership in cloud identity
Okta is recognized as a leader in cloud identity management, providing secure and flexible access solutions for companies.
Early AI agent adoption
The company is leveraging early adoption of AI agents, positioning itself for future growth and innovation in identity management.
Improving profitability
Okta has shown signs of improving profitability, which is a positive signal for long-term financial health and investor confidence.
Long-term growth potential
The company's strong market position and innovative solutions suggest significant long-term growth opportunities.
Extensible identity platform
Okta offers a powerful and extensible platform that integrates identity management into various tech stacks, enhancing security and usability.
Strong security features
Features like Okta Verify and passwordless login options provide robust security, making the platform attractive for enterprises.
Positive analyst coverage
Bullish theses from analysts highlight Okta's potential, with noted stock price appreciation and favorable valuation metrics.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
OKTA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$117.81
52W Range Position
69%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$62.66
+88.0% from the low
52-Week High
$142.35
-17.2% from the high
1 Month
+35.35%
3 Month
+50.21%
YTD
+40.9%
1 Year
+19.0%
3Y CAGR
+17.1%
5Y CAGR
-13.2%
10Y CAGR
+17.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
OKTA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
30.6x
vs 56.1x median
-45% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.8%
vs +17.2% median
-31% below peer median
Net Margin
8.2%
vs -2.4% median
+438% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OKT OKTA Okta, Inc. | $19.6B | 30.6x | +11.8% | 8.2% | Buy | -3.9% |
SAI SAIL SailPoint, Inc. | $7.6B | — | +18.0% | -25.2% | Buy | +38.4% |
CYB CYBR CyberArk Software Ltd. | $20.6B | 81.9x | +17.9% | -10.8% | Buy | +9.3% |
VRN VRNT Verint Systems Inc. | $1.2B | 7.0x | +3.2% | 6.9% | Hold | +58.8% |
ZS ZS Zscaler, Inc. | $20.2B | 30.3x | +10.8% | -2.4% | Buy | +54.8% |
CRW CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $174.3B | 138.7x | +17.2% | -0.5% | Buy | +0.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
OKTA Dividend and Capital Return
OKTA returns 0.4% annually — null% through dividends and 0.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$73M
Estimated Shares Retired
619.6K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
166M
FAQ
7 questionsOKTA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Okta, Inc. (OKTA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 36 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $113, implying -3.9% from the current price of $118. The bear case scenario is $76 and the bull case is $159.
02What is the OKTA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for OKTA is $113 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $150 (+27.3% from today), and the low-end target is $60 (-49.1%). The base case model target is $121.
03Is Okta, Inc. (OKTA) stock overvalued in 2026?
OKTA trades at 30.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals limited: cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Okta, Inc. (OKTA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for OKTA in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — The Price/Sales ratio of 4. (2) Technical overextension — With the stock trading near its 52-week high, there is a risk of technical overextension. (3) Earnings miss risk — Trailing P/E of 83. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Okta, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates OKTA will report consensus revenue of $3.4B (+11.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.89 (+107.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.6B in revenue.
06When does Okta, Inc. (OKTA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for OKTA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Okta, Inc. generate?
Okta, Inc. (OKTA) generated $938M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 31.3%. OKTA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($73M TTM).