Upside case
Bull case
$81+74.7%
PBA would need investors to value it at roughly 27x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
16
analysts
12 bullish · 0 bearish · 16 covering PBA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$39
-16.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$39 – $81
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $26.8B
PBA price targets
Three scenarios for where PBA stock could go
Current
~$46
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $46
Bear
$39
Base
$61
Bull
$81
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$61+32.6%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$39-16.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push PBA down roughly 16% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Pembina Pipeline Corporation
PBA · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Pembina Pipeline Corporation is a Canadian energy infrastructure company that transports, stores, and markets oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids across North America. It generates revenue through fee-based pipeline transportation (roughly 60% of earnings), processing and fractionation facilities (about 25%), and commodity marketing activities (approximately 15%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive, integrated network of critical energy infrastructure assets—particularly in Western Canada—that create high barriers to entry through significant capital requirements and regulatory approvals.
Market Cap
$26.8B
Revenue TTM
$7.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
Net Margin
22.3%
PBA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
45%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.47/$0.47
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.31/$0.45
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.56/$0.50
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.59/$0.52
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.47/$0.47 | +0.0% | $1.3B/$1.1B | +19.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.31/$0.45 | -31.1% | $1.3B/$1.4B | -9.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.56/$0.50 | +12.0% | $1.0B/$1.2B | -13.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.59/$0.52 | +13.5% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +4.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.0B
+6.0% YoY
FY2
$8.5B
+5.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.19
+9.7% YoY
FY2
$3.40
+6.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.0B
FCF Margin: 26.1%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.50
Expected Revenue
$998M
PBA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
PBA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product Sales
83.1%
+6.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Product Sales is the largest disclosed segment at 83.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.1% YoY.
PBA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $86 — implies +86.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
86.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PBA
24.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Energy Trailing P/E
PBA
24.5x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+58% premium
vs PBA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.5x
vs
5Y Average
12.0x
+104% premium
Forward PE
15.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-19%
Energy
12.5x
+22%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
+0%
Energy
15.5x
+58%
5Y Avg
12.0x
+104%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-12%
Energy
7.8x
+72%
5Y Avg
9.2x
+45%
Price/FCF
15.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
-27%
Energy
13.8x
+10%
5Y Avg
8.8x
+72%
Price/Sales
4.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+57%
Energy
1.4x
+244%
5Y Avg
2.5x
+98%
Dividend Yield
4.68%
S&P 500
1.91%
+144%
Energy
3.47%
+35%
5Y Avg
7.90%
-41%
| Metric | PBA | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg PBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.2x | 18.8x-19% | 12.5x+22% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.5x | 24.4x | 15.5x+58% | 12.0x+104% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.4x | 15.2x-12% | 7.8x+72% | 9.2x+45% |
| Price/FCF | 15.2x | 20.7x-27% | 13.8x+10% | 8.8x+72% |
| Price/Sales | 4.9x | 3.1x+57% | 1.4x+244% | 2.5x+98% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.68% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 7.90% |
PBA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPBA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
PBA generates $2.0B in free cash flow at a 26.1% margin — returns 4.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-7.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
40.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
34.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.91
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
26.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$106M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$13.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.7× FCF
~6.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.7%
Dividend
4.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
104.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
581M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePBA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Financial Model Risks
The bear case scenario suggests a significant downside risk with a price target of $-121, indicating potential financial instability or overvaluation.
Medium
Project Execution Risks
Expansion of the Peace Pipeline System and Cedar LNG agreements introduce execution risks, including delays or cost overruns.
Lower
Market Demand Uncertainty
Growing customer demand projections may not materialize as expected, impacting revenue from new infrastructure projects.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PBA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Investor Relations Accessibility
Pembina provides easy access to financial statements and investor relations materials, enhancing transparency and investor confidence.
Bullish Market Sentiment
There is circulating bullish investment thesis on Pembina Pipeline Corporation, indicating positive market sentiment.
Financial Reporting Transparency
Pembina's commitment to timely and accurate financial reporting supports investor trust and informed decision-making.
SEC Filing Accessibility
Comprehensive SEC filings are readily available, providing investors with detailed historical financial data.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PBA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$46.15
52W Range Position
73%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$35.45
+30.2% from the low
52-Week High
$50.10
-7.9% from the high
1 Month
-6.73%
3 Month
+5.41%
YTD
+19.7%
1 Year
+25.2%
3Y CAGR
+14.3%
5Y CAGR
+7.3%
10Y CAGR
+4.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PBA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.2x
vs 19.0x median
-20% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.0%
vs +5.4% median
+11% above peer median
Net Margin
22.3%
vs 18.9% median
+18% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PBA PBA Pembina Pipeline Corporation | $26.8B | 15.2x | +6.0% | 22.3% | Buy | -16.0% |
ENB ENB Enbridge Inc. | $119.1B | 19.0x | +6.2% | 9.7% | Buy | -14.1% |
TRP TRP TC Energy Corporation | $70.5B | 18.7x | +4.7% | 23.2% | Buy | -8.4% |
PPL PPL PPL Corporation | $26.6B | 18.1x | +5.4% | 13.1% | Buy | +16.6% |
WMB WMB The Williams Companies, Inc. | $89.4B | 30.9x | +6.8% | 23.8% | Buy | +14.5% |
KMI KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. | $70.3B | 21.6x | +4.9% | 18.9% | Hold | +16.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PBA Dividend and Capital Return
PBA returns 4.7% total yield, led by a 4.68% dividend, raised 7 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
4.68%
Payout Ratio
1.0%
How PBA Splits Its Return
Div 4.68%
Dividend 4.68%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
7Y
3Y Div CAGR
-1.5%
5Y Div CAGR
1.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
581M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.04 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.04 | +2.4% | 0.0% | 8.0% |
| 2024 | $1.99 | +0.9% | 0.0% | 7.4% |
| 2023 | $1.97 | -7.5% | 0.3% | 8.0% |
| 2022 | $2.13 | +5.5% | 1.8% | 9.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsPBA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $39, implying -16.0% from the current price of $46. The bear case scenario is $39 and the bull case is $81.
02What is the PBA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PBA is $39 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $54 (+17.0% from today), and the low-end target is $29 (-37.9%). The base case model target is $61.
03Is Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) stock overvalued in 2026?
PBA trades at 15.2x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PBA in 2026 are: (1) Financial Model Risks — The bear case scenario suggests a significant downside risk with a price target of $-121, indicating potential financial instability or overvaluation. (2) Project Execution Risks — Expansion of the Peace Pipeline System and Cedar LNG agreements introduce execution risks, including delays or cost overruns. (3) Market Demand Uncertainty — Growing customer demand projections may not materialize as expected, impacting revenue from new infrastructure projects. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Pembina Pipeline Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PBA will report consensus revenue of $8.0B (+6.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.19 (+9.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.5B in revenue.
06When does Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) report its next earnings?
Pembina Pipeline Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.50 and revenue of $998M. Over recent quarters, PBA has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Pembina Pipeline Corporation generate?
Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) generated $2.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 26.1%. PBA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).