Upside case
Bull case
$41+28.5%
KMI would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
34
analysts
16 bullish · 1 bearish · 34 covering KMI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
17
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$35
+8.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$17 – $41
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
34
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $71.8B
KMI price targets
Three scenarios for where KMI stock could go
Current
~$32
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $32
Bear
$17
Base
$39
Bull
$41
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$39+21.2%
At 28x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$17-47.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push KMI down roughly 47% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
KMI · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Kinder Morgan is one of North America's largest energy infrastructure companies, operating an extensive network of pipelines, terminals, and storage facilities. It generates revenue primarily through fee-based contracts from its natural gas pipelines (~60% of earnings), products pipelines (~20%), terminals (~15%), and CO2 operations (~5%). The company's massive scale and strategic pipeline network create significant barriers to entry and provide a durable competitive advantage in energy transportation.
Market Cap
$71.8B
Revenue TTM
$17.5B
Net Income TTM
$3.3B
Net Margin
18.9%
KMI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.28/$0.28
Revenue
$4.0B/$3.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.29/$0.29
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.39/$0.36
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.48/$0.40
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.28/$0.28 | +0.1% | $4.0B/$3.8B | +5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.29/$0.29 | -1.0% | $4.1B/$4.0B | +4.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.39/$0.36 | +6.9% | $4.5B/$4.3B | +4.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.48/$0.40 | +21.2% | $4.8B/$4.6B | +4.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$18.3B
+4.7% YoY
FY2
$19.5B
+6.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.54
+3.6% YoY
FY2
$1.66
+7.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.9B
FCF Margin: 22.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
KMI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
KMI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Natural Gas Pipelines
64.9%
+23.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
99.9%
+12.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Natural Gas Pipelines is the largest disclosed segment at 64.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 23.1% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 99.9%, up 12.4% YoY.
KMI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $32 — implies -0.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KMI
23.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
6% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
KMI
23.6x
vs
Energy
17.1x
+38% premium
vs KMI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.6x
vs
5Y Average
19.3x
+22% premium
Forward PE
22.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+20%
Energy
13.9x
+64%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.6x
S&P 500
25.1x
-6%
Energy
17.1x
+38%
5Y Avg
19.3x
+22%
PEG Ratio
0.24x
S&P 500
1.72x
-86%
Energy
0.53x
-54%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-6%
Energy
8.0x
+78%
5Y Avg
11.7x
+23%
Price/FCF
22.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
+6%
Energy
13.8x
+62%
5Y Avg
13.8x
+62%
Price/Sales
4.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+36%
Energy
1.6x
+157%
5Y Avg
2.9x
+47%
Dividend Yield
3.62%
S&P 500
1.87%
+94%
Energy
2.73%
+33%
5Y Avg
5.56%
-35%
| Metric | KMI | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg KMI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.8x | 19.1x+20% | 13.9x+64% | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.6x | 25.1x | 17.1x+38% | 19.3x+22% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.24x | 1.72x-86% | 0.53x-54% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.3x | 15.2x | 8.0x+78% | 11.7x+23% |
| Price/FCF | 22.3x | 21.1x | 13.8x+62% | 13.8x+62% |
| Price/Sales | 4.2x | 3.1x+36% | 1.6x+157% | 2.9x+47% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.62% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 5.56% |
KMI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKMI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
KMI generates $3.9B in free cash flow at a 22.2% margin — returns 3.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+13.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
46.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
28.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.49
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$109M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$32.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
8.3× FCF
~8.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.6%
Dividend
3.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.17
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
85.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageKMI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt & Financial Health
KMI carries a substantial debt load, making it vulnerable to adverse economic and industry conditions. Elevated debt service requirements can limit access to additional financing and constrain capital allocation. The company monitors its net leverage ratio to keep it steady, but any upward trend could pressure margins.
High Risk
Regulatory & Environmental Risks
The midstream sector faces stringent regulations and heightened environmental scrutiny. New or evolving rules can raise operational costs, delay projects, and expose KMI to reputational damage from pipeline leaks or emissions incidents. Compliance costs could erode profitability if not managed proactively.
Medium
Commodity Price Volatility
KMI’s earnings are sensitive to swings in natural gas and oil prices. While a large portion of revenue comes from fee‑based and take‑or‑pay contracts, significant market shifts can still affect profitability and contract terms. Volatility in commodity prices can compress margins during downturns.
Medium
Energy Transition Demand Risk
The global shift toward renewable energy threatens long‑term demand for traditional hydrocarbons. A decline in natural gas and oil consumption could erode KMI’s revenue streams. The company must diversify services and pursue renewable opportunities to mitigate this risk.
Lower
Project Execution & Backlog
KMI’s growth relies on a robust project backlog. Slowdowns in project sanctioning, delays, or cost overruns could reduce future revenue. A lack of new projects would directly impact the company’s financial outlook.
Lower
Geopolitical & Economic Uncertainty
Geopolitical tensions and macro‑economic volatility can disrupt energy markets and affect KMI’s operations. Such uncertainties may reduce energy consumption and investment, leading to lower throughput and revenue. The company’s exposure to global markets amplifies this risk.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KMI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Project Backlog Momentum
Kinder Morgan’s project backlog sits at roughly $10 billion, with potential growth capital expenditures of up to $3 billion. This backlog is heavily weighted toward natural gas and power‑generation projects that support AI data centers and LNG exports, signaling strong future pipeline activity.
Natural Gas Demand Surge
The company is positioned to benefit from a sharp rise in natural gas demand, especially from AI data centers and LNG export facilities. The backlog’s focus on natural‑gas‑related projects underscores the growing need for gas‑to‑power generation to meet these demands.
Fee‑Based Revenue Stability
About 96 % of Kinder Morgan’s cash flows are fee‑based or hedged, insulating earnings from commodity price swings. The take‑or‑pay model guarantees revenue even when customers do not use reserved capacity.
Record Q4 2025 Performance
Kinder Morgan posted record net income and adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025, with year‑over‑year growth in revenue and adjusted EPS. This performance highlights the company’s operational efficiency and strong cash‑flow generation.
Essential Tollbooth Infrastructure
The firm operates irreplaceable infrastructure that functions as a tollbooth for income, providing a stable and predictable revenue stream. This strategic positioning gives Kinder Morgan a competitive moat in the energy transport sector.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KMI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$32.29
52W Range Position
73%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$25.60
+26.1% from the low
52-Week High
$34.73
-7.0% from the high
1 Month
-2.71%
3 Month
+6.46%
YTD
+16.5%
1 Year
+20.2%
3Y CAGR
+23.7%
5Y CAGR
+13.0%
10Y CAGR
+6.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KMI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.8x
vs 16.0x median
+43% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.7%
vs +8.9% median
-47% below peer median
Net Margin
18.9%
vs 10.0% median
+88% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KMI KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. | $71.8B | 22.8x | +4.7% | 18.9% | Hold | +8.4% |
WMB WMB The Williams Companies, Inc. | $93.1B | 32.6x | +8.9% | 23.8% | Buy | +3.8% |
ET ET Energy Transfer LP | $70.1B | 12.6x | +11.0% | 5.9% | Buy | -6.8% |
EPD EPD Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | $83.2B | 13.4x | -0.8% | 11.0% | Buy | -3.9% |
TRG TRGP Targa Resources Corp. | $55.8B | 25.6x | +6.7% | 9.4% | Buy | -8.5% |
OKE OKE ONEOK, Inc. | $56.7B | 16.0x | +21.1% | 10.0% | Hold | -0.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
KMI Dividend and Capital Return
KMI returns 3.6% total yield, led by a 3.62% dividend, raised 9 consecutive years.
Dividend At RiskFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
3.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.62%
Payout Ratio
85.2%
How KMI Splits Its Return
Div 3.62%
Dividend 3.62%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.17
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
9Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.9%
5Y Div CAGR
2.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.2B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.17 | +1.7% | 0.0% | 4.3% |
| 2024 | $1.15 | +1.8% | 0.0% | 4.2% |
| 2023 | $1.13 | +2.0% | 1.3% | 7.7% |
| 2022 | $1.10 | +2.8% | 0.9% | 7.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsKMI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 34 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $35, implying +8.4% from the current price of $32. The bear case scenario is $17 and the bull case is $41.
02What is the KMI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KMI is $35 based on 34 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $38 (+17.7% from today), and the low-end target is $32 (-0.9%). The base case model target is $39.
03Is Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) stock overvalued in 2026?
KMI trades at 22.8x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KMI in 2026 are: (1) Debt & Financial Health — KMI carries a substantial debt load, making it vulnerable to adverse economic and industry conditions. (2) Regulatory & Environmental Risks — The midstream sector faces stringent regulations and heightened environmental scrutiny. (3) Commodity Price Volatility — KMI’s earnings are sensitive to swings in natural gas and oil prices. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Kinder Morgan, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KMI will report consensus revenue of $18.3B (+4.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.54 (+3.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $19.5B in revenue.
06When does Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for KMI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Kinder Morgan, Inc. generate?
Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) generated $3.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.2%. KMI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.6% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).