Upside case
Bull case
$103+57.8%
TRP would need investors to value it at roughly 28x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
TC Energy Corporation (TRP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
19
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 19 covering TRP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
10
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$62
-5.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$50 – $103
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $68.2B
TRP price targets
Three scenarios for where TRP stock could go
Current
~$65
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $65
Bear
$50
Base
$115
Bull
$103
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$115+75.8%
At 31x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$50-24.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push TRP down roughly 24% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
TC Energy Corporation
TRP · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
TC Energy is a major North American energy infrastructure company that builds and operates natural gas and liquids pipelines, storage facilities, and power generation assets. It generates revenue primarily through regulated tariffs and long-term contracts on its pipeline systems — with natural gas pipelines contributing roughly 80% of earnings — supplemented by power generation and storage operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive, strategically located pipeline network that creates high barriers to entry through regulatory approvals and massive capital requirements.
Market Cap
$68.2B
Revenue TTM
$15.1B
Net Income TTM
$3.5B
Net Margin
23.2%
TRP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.59/$0.56
Revenue
$2.7B/$1.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.56/$0.56
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.70/$0.65
Revenue
$2.2B/$3.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.72/$0.70
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.59/$0.56 | +5.4% | $2.7B/$1.9B | +46.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.56/$0.56 | +0.0% | $2.7B/$2.9B | -9.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.70/$0.65 | +7.7% | $2.2B/$3.0B | -24.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.72/$0.70 | +2.9% | $2.0B/$2.2B | -7.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$16.5B
+8.6% YoY
FY2
$17.5B
+6.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.81
+12.7% YoY
FY2
$4.23
+11.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.1B
FCF Margin: 13.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TRP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TRP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Natural Gas Storage And Other
88.4%
+29.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
52.2%
+13.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Natural Gas Storage And Other is the largest disclosed segment at 88.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 29.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 52.2%, up 13.1% YoY.
TRP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $53 — implies -20.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
20.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TRP
27.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+8% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
TRP
27.2x
vs
Energy
16.9x
+61% premium
vs TRP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.2x
vs
5Y Average
24.0x
+14% premium
Forward PE
17.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-8%
Energy
13.2x
+33%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
+8%
Energy
16.9x
+61%
5Y Avg
24.0x
+14%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+6%
Energy
8.1x
+99%
5Y Avg
11.9x
+36%
Price/FCF
44.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+109%
Energy
14.1x
+215%
5Y Avg
35.5x
+26%
Price/Sales
6.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+95%
Energy
1.6x
+291%
5Y Avg
3.2x
+90%
Dividend Yield
3.79%
S&P 500
1.88%
+102%
Energy
2.97%
+27%
5Y Avg
7.75%
-51%
| Metric | TRP | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg TRP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.5x | 19.1x | 13.2x+33% | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.2x | 25.2x | 16.9x+61% | 24.0x+14% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.2x | 15.3x | 8.1x+99% | 11.9x+36% |
| Price/FCF | 44.6x | 21.3x+109% | 14.1x+215% | 35.5x+26% |
| Price/Sales | 6.1x | 3.1x+95% | 1.6x+291% | 3.2x+90% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.79% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 7.75% |
TRP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTRP Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TRP generates $2.1B in free cash flow at a 13.6% margin — returns 4.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$15.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+23.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
49.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
44.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
23.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.38
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$261M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$60.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
29.4× FCF
~29.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.1%
Dividend
3.8%
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$250M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.37
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
99.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTRP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Financial Health & Valuation
TC Energy’s valuation metrics suggest potential overvaluation, with Zacks assigning a "D" Value Score and a "D" Growth Score, and an "F" Momentum Score. The company’s trailing twelve‑month dividend payout ratio stands at 104%, exceeding the payout norm and hinting at unsustainability, while its Cash per Share ranks in the bottom 20%, indicating limited liquidity.
High Risk
Regulatory & Permitting Risks
Operating in a heavily regulated sector, TC Energy faces the risk of regulatory changes and the possibility of project permit delays or denials. Such outcomes could postpone or cancel pipeline expansions, directly impacting future cash flows and project timelines.
High Risk
Capital Expenditure & Project Execution
The firm’s growth strategy relies on substantial capital spending on new projects, such as the Northwoods pipeline. Risks include project delays, cost overruns, and execution failures, which could erode projected EBITDA returns and strain the balance sheet.
Medium
Commodity Price Volatility
Although TC Energy’s revenue is largely contract‑based, fluctuations in commodity prices can still influence throughput volumes and profit margins, potentially affecting earnings stability.
Medium
Interest Rate Sensitivity
Shifts in interest rates can raise borrowing costs and alter the valuation of TC Energy’s asset portfolio, impacting both capital structure and investment returns.
Lower
Analyst Sentiment & Technical Resistance
The consensus rating is neutral with a median price target that implies a downside. Technical analysts have identified resistance levels, suggesting potential momentum stalls and downside vulnerability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TRP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Stable Cash Flow Transition
TC Energy’s shift to a more predictable cash flow regime is anchored by the spin‑off of South Bow and completion of key projects. Approximately 98% of its operations are now regulated or tied to long‑term contracts, sharply reducing commodity and volume volatility.
Dividend Sustainability
The company maintains a dividend yield of 4.1‑4.2%, underscoring its focus on preserving shareholder returns. This yield is supported by the firm’s stable cash flows and disciplined capital allocation.
Northwoods Project Growth
TC Energy has approved a US$0.9 billion Northwoods project, expected to deliver robust EBITDA returns backed by reliable counterparties. Management plans uncapped capital expenditures from 2029 onward, signaling a long‑term growth strategy.
Robust Backlog
An $8 billion projected demand backlog, with roughly 90% certainty, fuels an upward shift in long‑term capital deployment and validates the company’s growth profile.
Recent Earnings Beat
In Q4 2025, TC Energy reported an EPS of $0.70, surpassing expectations of $0.65 by 8%. This earnings beat highlights the company’s operational efficiency and financial resilience.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TRP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$65.49
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$46.29
+41.5% from the low
52-Week High
$67.31
-2.7% from the high
1 Month
+4.53%
3 Month
+9.48%
YTD
+17.1%
1 Year
+29.6%
3Y CAGR
+19.7%
5Y CAGR
+7.2%
10Y CAGR
+6.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TRP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.5x
vs 18.0x median
-3% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.6%
vs +5.5% median
+57% above peer median
Net Margin
23.2%
vs 18.1% median
+28% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TRP TRP TC Energy Corporation | $68.2B | 17.5x | +8.6% | 23.2% | Hold | -5.3% |
ENB ENB Enbridge Inc. | $118.3B | 18.0x | +5.5% | 18.1% | Buy | -13.6% |
KMI KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. | $70.3B | 22.3x | +4.7% | 18.9% | Hold | +10.8% |
WMB WMB The Williams Companies, Inc. | $90.2B | 31.6x | +8.9% | 23.8% | Buy | +7.1% |
ET ET Energy Transfer LP | $68.4B | 12.3x | +9.5% | 5.9% | Buy | -4.4% |
EPD EPD Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | $81.2B | 13.1x | -0.8% | 11.0% | Buy | -1.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TRP Dividend and Capital Return
TRP returns 4.1% total yield, led by a 3.79% dividend.
Dividend At RiskFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
3.79%
Payout Ratio
99.7%
How TRP Splits Its Return
Div 3.79%
Dividend 3.79%Buybacks 0.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.37
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-3.7%
5Y Div CAGR
0.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$250M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.0B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.64 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.45 | -9.1% | 0.4% | 6.6% |
| 2024 | $2.69 | -3.3% | 0.0% | 8.2% |
| 2023 | $2.78 | +1.5% | 0.0% | 7.6% |
| 2022 | $2.74 | -1.4% | 0.0% | 8.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsTRP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is TC Energy Corporation (TRP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
TC Energy Corporation (TRP) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $62, implying -5.3% from the current price of $65. The bear case scenario is $50 and the bull case is $103.
02What is the TRP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TRP is $62 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $62 (-5.3% from today), and the low-end target is $62 (-5.3%). The base case model target is $115.
03Is TC Energy Corporation (TRP) stock overvalued in 2026?
TRP trades at 17.5x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for TC Energy Corporation (TRP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TRP in 2026 are: (1) Financial Health & Valuation — TC Energy’s valuation metrics suggest potential overvaluation, with Zacks assigning a "D" Value Score and a "D" Growth Score, and an "F" Momentum Score. (2) Regulatory & Permitting Risks — Operating in a heavily regulated sector, TC Energy faces the risk of regulatory changes and the possibility of project permit delays or denials. (3) Capital Expenditure & Project Execution — The firm’s growth strategy relies on substantial capital spending on new projects, such as the Northwoods pipeline. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is TC Energy Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TRP will report consensus revenue of $16.5B (+8.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.81 (+12.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $17.5B in revenue.
06When does TC Energy Corporation (TRP) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TRP is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does TC Energy Corporation generate?
TC Energy Corporation (TRP) generated $2.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.6%. TRP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.8% yield) and share repurchases ($250M TTM).