Upside case
Bull case
$87+28.6%
TRP would need investors to value it at roughly 24x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
TC Energy Corporation (TRP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
10 bullish · 0 bearish · 19 covering TRP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
9
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$62
-8.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$42 – $87
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $70.5B
TRP price targets
Three scenarios for where TRP stock could go
Current
~$68
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $68
Bear
$42
Base
$66
Bull
$87
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$66-2.4%
This is close to how the market is already pricing TRP — at roughly 18x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$42-38.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push TRP down roughly 39% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
TC Energy Corporation
TRP · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
TC Energy is a major North American energy infrastructure company that builds and operates natural gas and liquids pipelines, storage facilities, and power generation assets. It generates revenue primarily through regulated tariffs and long-term contracts on its pipeline systems — with natural gas pipelines contributing roughly 80% of earnings — supplemented by power generation and storage operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive, strategically located pipeline network that creates high barriers to entry through regulatory approvals and massive capital requirements.
Market Cap
$70.5B
Revenue TTM
$15.1B
Net Income TTM
$3.5B
Net Margin
23.2%
TRP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.59/$0.56
Revenue
$2.7B/$1.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.56/$0.56
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.70/$0.65
Revenue
$2.2B/$3.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.72/$0.70
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.59/$0.56 | +5.4% | $2.7B/$1.9B | +46.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.56/$0.56 | +0.0% | $2.7B/$2.9B | -9.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.70/$0.65 | +7.7% | $2.2B/$3.0B | -24.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.72/$0.70 | +2.9% | $2.0B/$2.2B | -7.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.9B
+4.7% YoY
FY2
$16.5B
+4.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.53
+4.3% YoY
FY2
$3.67
+4.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.1B
FCF Margin: 13.6%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.58
Expected Revenue
$2.0B
TRP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TRP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Natural Gas Storage And Other
88.4%
+29.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
52.2%
+13.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Natural Gas Storage And Other is the largest disclosed segment at 88.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 29.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 52.2%, up 13.1% YoY.
TRP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $61 — implies -10.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TRP
29.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+19% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
TRP
29.2x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+89% premium
vs TRP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.2x
vs
5Y Average
24.0x
+22% premium
Forward PE
18.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
-1%
Energy
12.5x
+50%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+19%
Energy
15.5x
+89%
5Y Avg
24.0x
+22%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+11%
Energy
7.8x
+115%
5Y Avg
11.9x
+42%
Price/FCF
47.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
+131%
Energy
13.8x
+247%
5Y Avg
35.5x
+35%
Price/Sales
6.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+112%
Energy
1.4x
+362%
5Y Avg
3.2x
+104%
Dividend Yield
3.53%
S&P 500
1.91%
+84%
Energy
3.47%
+2%
5Y Avg
7.75%
-54%
| Metric | TRP | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg TRP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.7x | 18.8x | 12.5x+50% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.2x | 24.4x+19% | 15.5x+89% | 24.0x+22% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.9x | 15.2x+11% | 7.8x+115% | 11.9x+42% |
| Price/FCF | 47.8x | 20.7x+131% | 13.8x+247% | 35.5x+35% |
| Price/Sales | 6.5x | 3.1x+112% | 1.4x+362% | 3.2x+104% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.53% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 7.75% |
TRP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTRP Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TRP generates $2.1B in free cash flow at a 13.6% margin — returns 3.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$15.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+23.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
49.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
44.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
23.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.38
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$261M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$60.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
29.4× FCF
~29.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.8%
Dividend
3.5%
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$250M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.37
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
99.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTRP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Elevated debt levels
TC Energy faces significant financial risk due to elevated debt levels during its transition period.
High Risk
Execution risks
The company's transition and focus on core pipeline business involve substantial execution risks.
Medium
Revenue trajectory uncertainty
Sensitivity analysis highlights potential downturns in revenue growth, impacting valuation.
Medium
Margin pressure
Changes in margin path could negatively affect the company's financial performance.
Lower
Competitive pressures
Benchmarking against peers like Enbridge indicates competitive risks in the infrastructure sector.
Lower
Dividend sustainability
Investors must assess the company's ability to maintain reliable dividend yields amid financial restructuring.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TRP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong valuation metrics
TRP's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 22.59 and 21.64 respectively indicate reasonable valuation relative to earnings.
Bullish analyst coverage
Multiple bullish theses on TC Energy Corporation have been highlighted by Beat the TSX and DividendInvestor, suggesting positive sentiment among analysts.
Stable share price
TRP's share price was trading at $59.91 as of February 5th, reflecting stability and investor confidence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TRP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$67.70
52W Range Position
85%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$46.29
+46.3% from the low
52-Week High
$71.47
-5.3% from the high
1 Month
-2.34%
3 Month
+6.11%
YTD
+21.0%
1 Year
+41.8%
3Y CAGR
+22.4%
5Y CAGR
+7.6%
10Y CAGR
+5.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TRP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.7x
vs 19.0x median
-2% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.7%
vs +6.2% median
-25% below peer median
Net Margin
23.2%
vs 11.0% median
+111% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TRP TRP TC Energy Corporation | $70.5B | 18.7x | +4.7% | 23.2% | Buy | -8.4% |
ENB ENB Enbridge Inc. | $119.1B | 19.0x | +6.2% | 9.7% | Buy | -14.1% |
KMI KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. | $70.3B | 21.6x | +4.9% | 18.9% | Hold | +16.1% |
WMB WMB The Williams Companies, Inc. | $89.4B | 30.9x | +6.8% | 23.8% | Buy | +14.5% |
ET ET Energy Transfer LP | $64.5B | 12.8x | +11.1% | 6.2% | Buy | +22.7% |
EPD EPD Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | $79.1B | 12.6x | +5.0% | 11.0% | Buy | +7.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TRP Dividend and Capital Return
TRP returns 3.8% total yield, led by a 3.53% dividend.
Dividend At RiskFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
3.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
3.53%
Payout Ratio
99.7%
How TRP Splits Its Return
Div 3.53%
Dividend 3.53%Buybacks 0.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.37
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-3.7%
5Y Div CAGR
0.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$250M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.0B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.26 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.45 | -9.1% | 0.4% | 6.6% |
| 2024 | $2.69 | -3.3% | 0.0% | 8.2% |
| 2023 | $2.78 | +1.5% | 0.0% | 7.6% |
| 2022 | $2.74 | -1.4% | 0.0% | 8.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsTRP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is TC Energy Corporation (TRP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
TC Energy Corporation (TRP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $62, implying -8.4% from the current price of $68. The bear case scenario is $42 and the bull case is $87.
02What is the TRP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TRP is $62 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $62 (-8.4% from today), and the low-end target is $62 (-8.4%). The base case model target is $66.
03Is TC Energy Corporation (TRP) stock overvalued in 2026?
TRP trades at 18.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for TC Energy Corporation (TRP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TRP in 2026 are: (1) Elevated debt levels — TC Energy faces significant financial risk due to elevated debt levels during its transition period. (2) Execution risks — The company's transition and focus on core pipeline business involve substantial execution risks. (3) Revenue trajectory uncertainty — Sensitivity analysis highlights potential downturns in revenue growth, impacting valuation. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is TC Energy Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TRP will report consensus revenue of $15.9B (+4.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.53 (+4.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $16.5B in revenue.
06When does TC Energy Corporation (TRP) report its next earnings?
TC Energy Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $0.58 and revenue of $2.0B. Over recent quarters, TRP has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does TC Energy Corporation generate?
TC Energy Corporation (TRP) generated $2.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.6%. TRP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.5% yield) and share repurchases ($250M TTM).