Upside case
Bull case
$432+118.4%
PGR would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
41
analysts
17 bullish · 4 bearish · 41 covering PGR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
20
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$230
+16.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$55 – $432
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $115.9B
PGR price targets
Three scenarios for where PGR stock could go
Current
~$198
Confidence
72 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $198
Bear
$55
Base
$265
Bull
$432
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$265+34.0%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$55-72.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push PGR down roughly 72% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Progressive Corporation
PGR · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - Property & CasualtyDecember year-end
Progressive is a major property and casualty insurance company offering auto, home, and commercial insurance products across the United States. It generates revenue primarily through insurance premiums — with personal auto insurance representing the largest segment — and investment income on its float. The company's key competitive advantage lies in its sophisticated pricing algorithms and telematics-based usage programs like Snapshot, which enable more accurate risk assessment and customer segmentation.
Market Cap
$115.9B
Revenue TTM
$85.2B
Net Income TTM
$10.7B
Net Margin
12.6%
PGR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.88/$4.48
Revenue
$22.0B/$20.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.05/$4.99
Revenue
$22.5B/$21.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.67/$4.44
Revenue
$19.5B/$20.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.96/$4.85
Revenue
$23.6B/$23.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.88/$4.48 | +8.9% | $22.0B/$20.5B | +7.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.05/$4.99 | -18.8% | $22.5B/$21.8B | +3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.67/$4.44 | +5.2% | $19.5B/$20.3B | -3.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.96/$4.85 | +2.3% | $23.6B/$23.0B | +2.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$94.6B
+11.1% YoY
FY2
$109.3B
+15.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$17.90
-1.7% YoY
FY2
$19.30
+7.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$17.0B
FCF Margin: 20.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PGR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
PGR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $71.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Personal Lines Segment
84.9%
+32.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Personal Lines Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 84.9% of FY 2024 revenue, up 32.0% YoY.
PGR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $168 — implies -15.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
15.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PGR
13.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
45% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
PGR
13.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
In line with benchmark
vs PGR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.7x
vs
5Y Average
35.8x
62% discount
Forward PE
12.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-36%
Financial Services
10.4x
+16%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
-45%
Financial Services
13.3x
+3%
5Y Avg
35.8x
-62%
PEG Ratio
0.83x
S&P 500
1.72x
-51%
Financial Services
1.01x
-18%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-27%
Financial Services
11.4x
-2%
5Y Avg
24.5x
-54%
Price/FCF
7.8x
S&P 500
21.1x
-63%
Financial Services
10.6x
-26%
5Y Avg
9.4x
-17%
Price/Sales
1.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-51%
Financial Services
2.2x
-31%
5Y Avg
1.5x
+2%
Dividend Yield
0.58%
S&P 500
1.87%
-69%
Financial Services
2.70%
-78%
5Y Avg
1.98%
-71%
| Metric | PGR | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg PGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.1x | 19.1x-36% | 10.4x+16% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.7x | 25.1x-45% | 13.3x | 35.8x-62% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.83x | 1.72x-51% | 1.01x-18% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.2x | 15.2x-27% | 11.4x | 24.5x-54% |
| Price/FCF | 7.8x | 21.1x-63% | 10.6x-26% | 9.4x-17% |
| Price/Sales | 1.5x | 3.1x-51% | 2.2x-31% | 1.5x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.58% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 1.98% |
PGR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPGR Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
PGR posts 12.6% net margin with 30.2% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$85.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+18.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$18.21
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
30.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
27.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$143M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.8B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
30.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.1%
Dividend
0.6%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$634M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.15
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
7.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
588M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pagePGR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Capital & Financing Constraints
Progressive may struggle to secure necessary capital when market volatility or other factors impede financing. This limitation could restrict growth initiatives and dividend distributions, potentially weakening investor confidence.
High Risk
Underwriting Profitability Risk
Unexpected catastrophic weather events or sustained inflation in claims costs could erode underwriting margins. Such losses would directly reduce net income and could pressure the company’s earnings outlook.
High Risk
Cyber & System Vulnerabilities
Disruptions from system failures, cyberattacks, or data breaches could impair critical business functions. A breach could lead to regulatory scrutiny, financial penalties, and reputational damage.
High Risk
Competitive Pressure
Intense competition from national, international, and regional insurers—such as GEICO—may erode market share, raise acquisition costs, and squeeze underwriting margins. This pressure could limit Progressive’s pricing power.
High Risk
Underwriting Loss Ratio
The combined ratio has remained above 98% for two consecutive quarters, indicating underwriting losses. Persistently high ratios could signal deteriorating underwriting performance and impact profitability.
High Risk
Financial Condition Weakening
A significant deterioration in financial condition could trigger regulatory actions and cause a substantial decline in the company’s stock or debt securities. This scenario would undermine investor confidence and market valuation.
High Risk
Loss Reserve Accuracy
Inaccurate loss reserve estimations can lead to financial strain, affecting the company’s ability to meet future claim obligations. Poor reserve accuracy may result in unexpected losses and impact earnings.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PGR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Technological Innovation & Data Moat
Progressive’s usage‑based insurance leverages telematics and data analytics to personalize premiums, creating a significant data moat that enhances underwriting and customer retention. The company’s technology edge drives lower loss ratios and higher customer acquisition efficiency.
Operational Efficiency & Profitability
Progressive consistently outperforms peers in its combined ratio, reflecting superior underwriting and claims management. Profit margins have improved and earnings per share have grown substantially, underscoring operational excellence.
Market Leadership & Distribution Model
As the second‑largest personal auto insurer in the U.S., Progressive holds nearly 27 million personal auto policies in force. Its hybrid direct‑to‑consumer and independent‑agent distribution appeals to a broad customer base.
Strong Free Cash Flow Growth
The company has delivered top‑tier revenue growth and a robust compound annual growth rate in free cash flow over the past decade, positioning it for continued expansion.
Low Debt & Balance Sheet Strength
Progressive maintains a strong balance sheet with a relatively low debt‑to‑equity ratio, providing financial flexibility to invest in technology and growth initiatives.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PGR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$197.74
52W Range Position
6%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$192.02
+3.0% from the low
52-Week High
$289.96
-31.8% from the high
1 Month
+0.69%
3 Month
-4.73%
YTD
-6.8%
1 Year
-29.9%
3Y CAGR
+15.1%
5Y CAGR
+13.8%
10Y CAGR
+19.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PGR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.1x
vs 10.2x median
+19% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.1%
vs +1.8% median
+520% above peer median
Net Margin
12.6%
vs 13.2% median
-5% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PGR PGR The Progressive Corporation | $115.9B | 12.1x | +11.1% | 12.6% | Hold | +16.5% |
ALL ALL The Allstate Corporation | $56.2B | 8.1x | +1.8% | 18.1% | Buy | +11.8% |
TRV TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. | $65.2B | 10.8x | -1.4% | 12.9% | Hold | +3.9% |
HIG HIG The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36.9B | 10.2x | +5.4% | 14.1% | Buy | +13.3% |
ERI ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | $10.2B | 17.5x | +7.5% | 13.2% | — | — |
KMP KMPR Kemper Corporation | $2.0B | 8.7x | -5.1% | 5.1% | Buy | +46.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PGR Dividend and Capital Return
PGR returns 1.1% total yield, led by a 0.58% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.5%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
0.58%
Payout Ratio
7.9%
How PGR Splits Its Return
Div 0.58%
Buyback 0.5%
Dividend 0.58%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.15
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
130.5%
5Y Div CAGR
13.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$634M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
588M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $13.70 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.90 | +326.1% | — | — |
| 2024 | $1.15 | +187.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| 2023 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 2022 | $0.40 | -93.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsPGR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Progressive Corporation (PGR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $230, implying +16.5% from the current price of $198. The bear case scenario is $55 and the bull case is $432.
02What is the PGR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PGR is $230 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $259 (+31.0% from today), and the low-end target is $216 (+9.2%). The base case model target is $265.
03Is The Progressive Corporation (PGR) stock overvalued in 2026?
PGR trades at 12.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Progressive Corporation (PGR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PGR in 2026 are: (1) Capital & Financing Constraints — Progressive may struggle to secure necessary capital when market volatility or other factors impede financing. (2) Underwriting Profitability Risk — Unexpected catastrophic weather events or sustained inflation in claims costs could erode underwriting margins. (3) Cyber & System Vulnerabilities — Disruptions from system failures, cyberattacks, or data breaches could impair critical business functions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Progressive Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PGR will report consensus revenue of $94.6B (+11.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $17.90 (-1.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $109.3B in revenue.
06When does The Progressive Corporation (PGR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PGR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The Progressive Corporation generate?
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) generated $17.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.0%. PGR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($634M TTM).