11.5% Below Target

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) has a consensus 12-month price target of $228.42, implying 11.5% upside from $204.87. The 41 analysts covering PGR see moderate appreciation potential.

PGR has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 41 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 20 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $228.42 implies 11.5% upside from current levels.

With a forward P/E of 12.4821x, PGR trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $228.42 implies 11.5% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.

The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $259 for PGR, while the most conservative target is $208. The consensus of $228.42 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $331 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.

PGR is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 41 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 17 have Buy ratings, 20 recommend Hold, and 4 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.

The 12-month PGR stock forecast based on 41 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $228.42, with estimates ranging from $208 (bear case) to $259 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $251, with bear/bull scenarios of $158/$331.

Our quantitative valuation model calculates PGR's fair value at $251 (base case), with a bear case of $158 and bull case of $331. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 51/100.

PGR trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12.5x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 14.2x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.

Wall Street analysts are optimistic on PGR, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $228.42 price target (11.5% upside). 17 of 41 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

PGR analyst price targets range from $208 to $259, a 22% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $228.42 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $158-$331 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.