The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$197.74
Price Target
$230.27
Target Range
$216.00 — $259.00
Analyst Rating
Hold
Forward P/E12.1x
Trailing P/E13.7x
Forward PEG0.74
Implied Growth-10.4%
Median Target$225.00
Analyst Spread18.7%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$216
+9.2%
Consensus
$230
+16.5%
Bull Case
$259
+31.0%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 72/100
Bear$55
Base$265
Bull$432
PGR Price Target Analysis
Updated May 6, 2026As of May 6, 2026, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $230.27, based on estimates from 41 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $197.74, this represents a potential upside of +16.5%. The company has a market capitalization of $115.90B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $216.00 to a high of $259.00, representing a 19% spread in expectations. The median target of $225.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 17 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,20 rating it Hold, and 4 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, PGR trades at a trailing P/E of 13.7x and forward P/E of 12.1x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.74 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -10.4% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $264.97, with bear and bull scenarios of $54.59 and $431.85 respectively. Model confidence stands at 72/100, indicating high predictability in the company's fundamentals.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Financial Services stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+12.3%
Avg Forward P/E12.4x
Peers with Coverage9 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ALLThe Allstate Corporation | $56.2B | $218.51 | $244.38 | +11.8% | Buy | 8.1x | 44 |
 TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $65.2B | $301.39 | $313.00 | +3.9% | Hold | 10.8x | 43 |
 HIGThe Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36.9B | $134.15 | $152.00 | +13.3% | Buy | 10.2x | 42 |
 ERIEErie Indemnity Company | $10.2B | $221.24 | — | — | — | 17.5x | — |
 KMPRKemper Corporation | $2.0B | $32.87 | $48.00 | +46.0% | Buy | 8.7x | 12 |
 MKLMarkel Corporation | $22.1B | $1764.81 | $1950.00 | +10.5% | Hold | 15.7x | 15 |
 WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $24.9B | $66.49 | $70.30 | +5.7% | Hold | 14.3x | 30 |
 CNACNA Financial Corporation | $12.0B | $44.53 | $45.00 | +1.1% | Hold | 9.2x | 7 |
 SIGISelective Insurance Group, Inc. | $4.9B | $82.15 | $90.50 | +10.2% | Hold | 10.6x | 16 |
 CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | $25.0B | $160.35 | $173.50 | +8.2% | Buy | 18.5x | 17 |
Upside Potential Comparison
KMPRHIGALLMKLSIGICINFWRBTRVFull PGR Stock Analysis
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Start ComparisonPGR — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying PGR stock.
What is the PGR stock price target for 2026?
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) has a consensus 12-month price target of $230.27, implying 16.5% upside from $197.74. The 41 analysts covering PGR see moderate appreciation potential.
Is PGR a buy, sell, or hold?
PGR has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 41 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 20 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $230.27 implies 16.5% upside from current levels.
Is PGR stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 12.1178x, PGR trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $230.27 implies 16.5% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
How high can PGR stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $259 for PGR, while the most conservative target is $216. The consensus of $230.27 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $432 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover PGR stock?
PGR is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 41 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 17 have Buy ratings, 20 recommend Hold, and 4 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the PGR stock forecast?
The 12-month PGR stock forecast based on 41 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $230.27, with estimates ranging from $216 (bear case) to $259 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $265, with bear/bull scenarios of $55/$432.
What is PGR's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates PGR's fair value at $265 (base case), with a bear case of $55 and bull case of $432. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 72/100.
What is PGR's forward P/E ratio?
PGR trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12.1x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 13.7x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy PGR stock?
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on PGR, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $230.27 price target (16.5% upside). 17 of 41 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do PGR price targets vary so much?
PGR analyst price targets range from $216 to $259, a 19% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $230.27 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $55-$432 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.