Upside case
Bull case
$221+29.7%
PM would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
17 bullish · 1 bearish · 25 covering PM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
7
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$188
+10.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$123 – $221
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $265.8B
PM price targets
Three scenarios for where PM stock could go
Current
~$171
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $171
Bear
$123
Base
$192
Bull
$221
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$192+12.6%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$123-28.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push PM down roughly 28% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Philip Morris International Inc.
PM · NYSEConsumer DefensiveTobaccoDecember year-end
Philip Morris International is a global tobacco company transitioning from traditional cigarettes to smoke-free alternatives like heated tobacco and vaping products. It generates revenue primarily from cigarette sales — still about two-thirds of total — with the remainder from smoke-free products sold in over 70 markets worldwide. The company's key advantage is its dominant Marlboro brand equity and extensive international distribution network, which it leverages to convert smokers to its higher-margin smoke-free portfolio.
Market Cap
$265.8B
Revenue TTM
$41.5B
Net Income TTM
$11.1B
Net Margin
26.7%
PM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.91/$1.86
Revenue
$10.1B/$10.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.24/$2.09
Revenue
$10.8B/$10.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.70/$1.70
Revenue
$10.4B/$10.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.96/$1.86
Revenue
$10.1B/$10.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.91/$1.86 | +2.7% | $10.1B/$10.3B | -1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.24/$2.09 | +7.2% | $10.8B/$10.6B | +2.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.70/$1.70 | +0.0% | $10.4B/$10.4B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.96/$1.86 | +5.4% | $10.1B/$10.0B | +1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$44.4B
+7.0% YoY
FY2
$47.8B
+7.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.73
+8.8% YoY
FY2
$8.17
+5.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$10.7B
FCF Margin: 25.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
PM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $40.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Combustible Products
58.5%
+2.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
European Union
42.1%
+11.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Combustible Products is the largest disclosed segment at 58.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.5% YoY.
European Union is the largest reported region at 42.1%, up 11.4% YoY.
PM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $135 — implies -18.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
18.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PM
23.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
7% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
PM
23.5x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+20% premium
vs PM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.5x
vs
5Y Average
20.2x
+16% premium
Forward PE
20.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+7%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
+39%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-7%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+20%
5Y Avg
20.2x
+16%
PEG Ratio
3.32x
S&P 500
1.75x
+90%
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
+79%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
+20%
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
+60%
5Y Avg
14.8x
+23%
Price/FCF
24.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+17%
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
+58%
5Y Avg
17.7x
+40%
Price/Sales
6.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+109%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+673%
5Y Avg
5.0x
+31%
Dividend Yield
3.25%
S&P 500
1.88%
+73%
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
+19%
5Y Avg
4.67%
-31%
| Metric | PM | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.3x | 19.1x | 14.6x+39% | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.5x | 25.2x | 19.6x+20% | 20.2x+16% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.32x | 1.75x+90% | 1.85x+79% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.3x | 15.3x+20% | 11.4x+60% | 14.8x+23% |
| Price/FCF | 24.9x | 21.3x+17% | 15.7x+58% | 17.7x+40% |
| Price/Sales | 6.5x | 3.1x+109% | 0.8x+673% | 5.0x+31% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.25% | 1.88% | 2.73% | 4.67% |
PM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPM Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
PM generates $10.7B in free cash flow at a 25.7% margin — 33.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$41.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
36.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
26.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.10
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$10.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
25.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
33.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
16.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$44.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.1× FCF
~4.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.2%
Dividend
3.2%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.54
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
76.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Uncertainty
Delays or unfavorable outcomes from the U.S. FDA for IQOS ILUMA and ZYN Ultra could stall near‑term U.S. growth. Heightened scrutiny over youth access to nicotine pouches and the strength of adolescent safety data further increases regulatory risk.
Medium
Market Competition
Emerging competitors are eroding IQOS market share in Japan, while Altria’s On! PLUS higher‑strength pouches directly compete with PM’s products. This could pressure pricing and volume in key markets.
Medium
Economic & Tax Headwinds
Japan’s planned excise tax hikes of 10%–20% in April and October 2026 are expected to raise retail prices for IQOS, potentially dampening category growth, revenue, and profitability.
Medium
Margin Pressures
Significant U.S. market investments and inventory normalization efforts are tightening near‑term operating margins. These costs could offset revenue gains from new product launches.
Lower
Currency Fluctuations
A strengthening U.S. dollar can erode earnings growth, as a sizable portion of PM’s net sales come from foreign currencies.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
PM’s price‑to‑earnings ratio of approximately 21.97 suggests it may be overvalued relative to earnings, potentially limiting upside if market sentiment shifts.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Smoke-Free Transformation Momentum
Philip Morris is actively shifting its business model toward smoke‑free alternatives such as IQOS heated tobacco and ZYN nicotine pouches. This strategy is driving high single‑digit organic growth and expanding margins, with smoke‑free products already accounting for a significant portion of net revenues. The acquisition of Swedish Match has further bolstered its position in this growing category.
Strong Financial Growth & EPS Outlook
The company has demonstrated consistent year‑over‑year revenue growth, with smoke‑free products showing particularly strong expansion in both revenue and gross profit. Analysts project double‑digit EPS growth, supported by strong 2026 guidance. For instance, PM raised its 2025 outlook, projecting adjusted EPS growth of 12‑14% in dollar terms.
Macro-Proof Market Position
PM’s products are considered macro‑proof due to their addictive and habitual nature, making the company resilient to economic downturns and trade tensions. Its diversified exposure and product portfolio also contribute to this stability.
ZYN U.S. Market Dominance
ZYN dominates the U.S. nicotine pouch market, providing a strong growth engine within the broader smoke‑free portfolio.
Attractive Dividend Yield
The company offers an attractive dividend yield, which is appealing to investors seeking income alongside growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$170.53
52W Range Position
58%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$142.11
+20.0% from the low
52-Week High
$191.30
-10.9% from the high
1 Month
+6.36%
3 Month
-6.72%
YTD
+6.4%
1 Year
-2.0%
3Y CAGR
+21.3%
5Y CAGR
+12.0%
10Y CAGR
+5.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.3x
vs 12.7x median
+60% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.0%
vs +14.1% median
-50% below peer median
Net Margin
26.7%
vs -8.3% median
+422% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PM PM Philip Morris International Inc. | $265.8B | 20.3x | +7.0% | 26.7% | Buy | +10.0% |
MO MO Altria Group, Inc. | $117.3B | 12.4x | -2.6% | 36.9% | Buy | -2.4% |
BTI BTI British American Tobacco p.l.c. | $129.2B | 16.5x | -9.5% | -20.8% | Buy | -32.8% |
XXI XXII 22nd Century Group, Inc. | $621210 | — | +149.4% | -65.7% | — | — |
TPV TPVG TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. | $226M | 6.0x | +30.2% | — | Hold | +60.7% |
UVV UVV Universal Corporation | $1.3B | 12.9x | +14.1% | 4.2% | Buy | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PM Dividend and Capital Return
PM returns 3.2% total yield, led by a 3.25% dividend, raised 16 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
3.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.25%
Payout Ratio
76.0%
How PM Splits Its Return
Div 3.25%
Dividend 3.25%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.54
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.8%
5Y Div CAGR
3.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.6B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.47 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.64 | +6.4% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| 2024 | $5.30 | +3.1% | 0.0% | 4.4% |
| 2023 | $5.14 | +2.0% | 0.0% | 5.5% |
| 2022 | $5.04 | +2.9% | 0.1% | 5.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsPM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $188, implying +10.0% from the current price of $171. The bear case scenario is $123 and the bull case is $221.
02What is the PM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PM is $188 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $205 (+20.2% from today), and the low-end target is $168 (-1.5%). The base case model target is $192.
03Is Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) stock overvalued in 2026?
PM trades at 20.3x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PM in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Uncertainty — Delays or unfavorable outcomes from the U. (2) Market Competition — Emerging competitors are eroding IQOS market share in Japan, while Altria’s On! PLUS higher‑strength pouches directly compete with PM’s products. (3) Economic & Tax Headwinds — Japan’s planned excise tax hikes of 10%–20% in April and October 2026 are expected to raise retail prices for IQOS, potentially dampening category growth, revenue, and profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Philip Morris International Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PM will report consensus revenue of $44.4B (+7.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.73 (+8.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $47.8B in revenue.
06When does Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Philip Morris International Inc. generate?
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) generated $10.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 25.7%. PM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.2% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).