Upside case
Bull case
$113+54.7%
MO would need investors to value it at roughly 20x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
16 bullish · 1 bearish · 26 covering MO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
9
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$69
-5.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$53 – $113
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $121.7B
MO price targets
Three scenarios for where MO stock could go
Current
~$73
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $73
Bear
$53
Base
$99
Bull
$113
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$99+35.4%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$53-26.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push MO down roughly 27% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Altria Group, Inc.
MO · NYSEConsumer DefensiveTobaccoDecember year-end
Altria Group is a leading U.S. tobacco company that manufactures and sells cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, and oral nicotine products. It generates revenue primarily from cigarette sales — with Marlboro accounting for the vast majority — supplemented by moist smokeless tobacco and oral nicotine pouches. The company's moat lies in its dominant Marlboro brand, which commands significant pricing power and consumer loyalty in a declining but highly profitable market.
Market Cap
$121.7B
Revenue TTM
$21.8B
Net Income TTM
$8.1B
Net Margin
36.9%
MO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.44/$1.39
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.45/$1.44
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.30/$1.32
Revenue
$5.1B/$5.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.32/$1.25
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.44/$1.39 | +3.6% | $5.3B/$5.2B | +1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.45/$1.44 | +0.7% | $5.3B/$5.3B | -0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.30/$1.32 | -1.5% | $5.1B/$5.0B | +0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.32/$1.25 | +5.6% | $4.8B/$4.6B | +3.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$21.3B
-2.6% YoY
FY2
$21.1B
-0.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.29
+9.9% YoY
FY2
$5.56
+5.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$8.6B
FCF Margin: 39.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MO beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $23.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Smokeable Products
87.9%
-3.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Smokeable Products is the largest disclosed segment at 87.9% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.4% YoY.
MO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $102 — implies +36.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
36.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MO
17.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
29% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
MO
17.7x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
7% discount
vs MO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.7x
vs
5Y Average
16.1x
+10% premium
Forward PE
12.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-32%
Consumer Defensive
15.0x
-14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
-29%
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
-7%
5Y Avg
16.1x
+10%
PEG Ratio
1.56x
S&P 500
1.72x
-9%
Consumer Defensive
1.87x
-17%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-39%
Consumer Defensive
11.5x
-19%
5Y Avg
8.7x
+7%
Price/FCF
13.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
-36%
Consumer Defensive
14.9x
-10%
5Y Avg
10.0x
+35%
Price/Sales
6.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+93%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+631%
5Y Avg
4.2x
+45%
Dividend Yield
5.70%
S&P 500
1.87%
+205%
Consumer Defensive
2.79%
+104%
5Y Avg
7.93%
-28%
| Metric | MO | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg MO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.9x | 19.1x-32% | 15.0x-14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.7x | 25.1x-29% | 19.1x | 16.1x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.56x | 1.72x | 1.87x-17% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.3x | 15.2x-39% | 11.5x-19% | 8.7x |
| Price/FCF | 13.4x | 21.1x-36% | 14.9x-10% | 10.0x+35% |
| Price/Sales | 6.0x | 3.1x+93% | 0.8x+631% | 4.2x+45% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.70% | 1.87% | 2.79% | 7.93% |
MO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMO Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MO generates $8.6B in free cash flow at a 39.5% margin — 60.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$21.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
50.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
36.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.81
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$8.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
39.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
60.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
23.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$21.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.5× FCF
~2.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.5%
Dividend
5.7%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.15
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
100.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.7B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Declining Cigarette Volumes
Altria’s core cigarette business is shrinking at an accelerated rate of 8‑10% per year, driven by falling smoking rates and a shift toward discount brands. Inflation and illicit trade further erode volumes, threatening the company’s top‑line growth.
High Risk
Regulatory and Legal Challenges
The company faces potential increases in tobacco taxes, ongoing government investigations, and adverse litigation outcomes such as the JUUL settlement. FDA delays in approving new products like nicotine pouches add uncertainty to product launches.
High Risk
Transition to Smoke‑Free Products
Altria’s heavy investment in e‑vapor (NJOY) and oral nicotine pouches (on!) hinges on regulatory approvals and consumer acceptance. Intense competition and the rise of illicit disposable e‑vapor products threaten to undermine revenue goals.
Medium
Illicit Market Competition
The proliferation of unregulated disposable e‑vapor products erodes Altria’s compliant offerings and hampers its smoke‑free growth objectives, potentially diverting consumers to cheaper, illegal alternatives.
Medium
Debt and Financial Leverage
Altria carries significant debt; rising interest rates could increase borrowing costs, reducing funds available for dividends and buybacks. Current and quick ratios below 1 raise short‑term liquidity concerns.
Medium
Macroeconomic Headwinds
Inflation and economic uncertainty can squeeze consumer disposable income, prompting a shift to lower‑priced or illicit products and impacting sales volumes.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Pricing Power & Cash Flow
Altria consistently raises cigarette prices by over 10%, offsetting volume declines and sustaining profitability. This pricing strength generated roughly $8.6 billion in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, with a manageable 83% dividend payout ratio.
Dividend Yield & Growth
The company offers an attractive 7.4% dividend yield and has set a target for mid‑single‑digit dividend growth through 2028, reinforcing confidence in its ongoing cash generation.
Smoke‑Free Diversification
Altria’s “Moving Beyond Smoking” strategy is gaining traction, with nicotine pouch brand “on!” capturing significant market share and NJOY expanding into the e‑vapor segment, diversifying future cash flows.
Strong Balance Sheet
Altria maintains a solid financial footing, with a net debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio near 2.1x and interest coverage above 9x, supporting its dividend and growth initiatives.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$72.79
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$54.70
+33.1% from the low
52-Week High
$74.56
-2.4% from the high
1 Month
+9.38%
3 Month
+11.32%
YTD
+27.0%
1 Year
+21.6%
3Y CAGR
+16.0%
5Y CAGR
+8.5%
10Y CAGR
+1.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.9x
vs 18.3x median
-30% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-2.6%
vs +14.1% median
-118% below peer median
Net Margin
36.9%
vs 4.2% median
+788% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO MO Altria Group, Inc. | $121.7B | 12.9x | -2.6% | 36.9% | Buy | -5.9% |
PM PM Philip Morris International Inc. | $264.1B | 20.2x | +7.0% | 26.7% | Buy | +10.7% |
BTI BTI British American Tobacco p.l.c. | $128.8B | 16.4x | -9.5% | -20.8% | Buy | -32.7% |
TPB TPB Turning Point Brands, Inc. | $1.5B | 31.7x | +17.2% | 12.6% | Buy | +60.6% |
XXI XXII 22nd Century Group, Inc. | $613324 | — | +149.4% | -65.7% | — | — |
UVV UVV Universal Corporation | $1.3B | 13.0x | +14.1% | 4.2% | Buy | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MO Dividend and Capital Return
MO returns 6.5% total yield, led by a 5.70% dividend, raised 16 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
6.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
5.70%
Payout Ratio
1.0%
How MO Splits Its Return
Div 5.70%
Dividend 5.70%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.15
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.2%
5Y Div CAGR
4.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
14M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.7B
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.06 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.16 | +4.0% | 1.0% | 8.2% |
| 2024 | $4.00 | +4.2% | 3.8% | 11.4% |
| 2023 | $3.84 | +4.3% | 1.4% | 10.9% |
| 2022 | $3.68 | +4.5% | 2.2% | 10.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsMO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Altria Group, Inc. (MO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $69, implying -5.9% from the current price of $73. The bear case scenario is $53 and the bull case is $113.
02What is the MO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MO is $69 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $77 (+5.8% from today), and the low-end target is $47 (-35.4%). The base case model target is $99.
03Is Altria Group, Inc. (MO) stock overvalued in 2026?
MO trades at 12.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Altria Group, Inc. (MO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MO in 2026 are: (1) Declining Cigarette Volumes — Altria’s core cigarette business is shrinking at an accelerated rate of 8‑10% per year, driven by falling smoking rates and a shift toward discount brands. (2) Regulatory and Legal Challenges — The company faces potential increases in tobacco taxes, ongoing government investigations, and adverse litigation outcomes such as the JUUL settlement. (3) Transition to Smoke‑Free Products — Altria’s heavy investment in e‑vapor (NJOY) and oral nicotine pouches (on!) hinges on regulatory approvals and consumer acceptance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Altria Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MO will report consensus revenue of $21.3B (-2.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.29 (+9.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $21.1B in revenue.
06When does Altria Group, Inc. (MO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Altria Group, Inc. generate?
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) generated $8.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 39.5%. MO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.7% yield) and share repurchases ($1.0B TTM).