Upside case
Bull case
$122+76.0%
MO would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
16 bullish · 1 bearish · 26 covering MO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
9
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$72
+3.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$58 – $122
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $115.6B
MO price targets
Three scenarios for where MO stock could go
Current
~$69
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $69
Bear
$58
Base
$92
Bull
$122
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$92+33.6%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$58-15.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push MO down roughly 16% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Altria Group, Inc.
MO · NYSEConsumer DefensiveTobaccoDecember year-end
Altria Group is a leading U.S. tobacco company that manufactures and sells cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, and oral nicotine products. It generates revenue primarily from cigarette sales — with Marlboro accounting for the vast majority — supplemented by moist smokeless tobacco and oral nicotine pouches. The company's moat lies in its dominant Marlboro brand, which commands significant pricing power and consumer loyalty in a declining but highly profitable market.
Market Cap
$115.6B
Revenue TTM
$21.8B
Net Income TTM
$8.1B
Net Margin
36.9%
MO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.44/$1.39
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.45/$1.44
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.30/$1.32
Revenue
$5.1B/$5.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.32/$1.25
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.44/$1.39 | +3.6% | $5.3B/$5.2B | +1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.45/$1.44 | +0.7% | $5.3B/$5.3B | -0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.30/$1.32 | -1.5% | $5.1B/$5.0B | +0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.32/$1.25 | +5.6% | $4.8B/$4.6B | +3.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$21.5B
-1.6% YoY
FY2
$21.1B
-1.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.13
+6.6% YoY
FY2
$5.28
+2.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$8.6B
FCF Margin: 39.5%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.48
Expected Revenue
$5.3B
MO beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $23.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Smokeable Products
87.9%
-3.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Smokeable Products is the largest disclosed segment at 87.9% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.4% YoY.
MO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $134 — implies +94.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
94.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MO
16.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
31% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
MO
16.8x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
11% discount
vs MO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.8x
vs
5Y Average
16.1x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
12.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-35%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
-14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
-31%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
-11%
5Y Avg
16.1x
+4%
PEG Ratio
1.48x
S&P 500
1.66x
-11%
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
-23%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-41%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
-20%
5Y Avg
8.7x
+3%
Price/FCF
12.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
-38%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
-17%
5Y Avg
10.0x
+28%
Price/Sales
5.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+86%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+552%
5Y Avg
4.2x
+38%
Dividend Yield
6.00%
S&P 500
1.91%
+214%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
+96%
5Y Avg
7.93%
-24%
| Metric | MO | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg MO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.2x | 18.8x-35% | 14.2x-14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.8x | 24.4x-31% | 18.9x-11% | 16.1x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.48x | 1.66x-11% | 1.92x-23% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9x | 15.2x-41% | 11.1x-20% | 8.7x |
| Price/FCF | 12.7x | 20.7x-38% | 15.3x-17% | 10.0x+28% |
| Price/Sales | 5.7x | 3.1x+86% | 0.9x+552% | 4.2x+38% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.00% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 7.93% |
MO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMO Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MO generates $8.6B in free cash flow at a 39.5% margin — 60.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$21.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
50.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
36.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.81
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$8.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
39.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
60.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
23.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$21.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.5× FCF
~2.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.9%
Dividend
6.0%
Buyback
0.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.15
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
100.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.7B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Declining core business
Altria's core cigarette business is declining, posing a significant risk to long-term revenue and profitability.
High Risk
Regulatory changes
External factors such as regulatory changes could negatively impact Altria's stock value and business operations.
Medium
Diversification challenges
The company faces challenges in diversifying away from its traditional tobacco products, which may limit growth opportunities.
Medium
Supply chain disruptions
Geopolitical factors and supply chain disruptions for tobacco leaf add volatility to Altria's operations.
Lower
Economic conditions
Economic conditions could affect Altria's financial performance, though lower rates in 2026 may boost valuation multiples.
Lower
Technology shifts
Shifts toward reduced-risk products align with Altria's strategy, but execution risks remain.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Transition to reduced-risk products
Altria is leading efforts to shift adult smokers to potentially less harmful alternatives, positioning itself for long-term sustainability.
Strong dividend yield
Altria offers an attractive 7.37% dividend yield, appealing to income-focused investors.
Brand dominance and moat
The company maintains a wide moat with strong brand recognition and market leadership in tobacco products.
Successful stock performance
MO's stock has appreciated by approximately 10.01% since previous bullish coverage, demonstrating resilience in a challenging industry.
Strategic investments for growth
Altria is investing in new initiatives and product categories to drive future growth beyond traditional tobacco.
Fortune 500 stability
As a long-standing Fortune 500 company, Altria provides investors with a stable and established business foundation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$69.12
52W Range Position
73%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$54.70
+26.4% from the low
52-Week High
$74.56
-7.3% from the high
1 Month
-6.24%
3 Month
+6.13%
YTD
+20.6%
1 Year
+16.2%
3Y CAGR
+16.7%
5Y CAGR
+8.3%
10Y CAGR
+0.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.2x
vs 18.9x median
-36% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.6%
vs +1.7% median
-195% below peer median
Net Margin
36.9%
vs 1.1% median
+3208% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO MO Altria Group, Inc. | $115.6B | 12.2x | -1.6% | 36.9% | Buy | +3.9% |
PM PM Philip Morris International Inc. | $278.0B | 21.3x | +5.2% | 26.7% | Buy | +6.3% |
BTI BTI British American Tobacco p.l.c. | $127.8B | 16.5x | -0.3% | -20.8% | Buy | -32.1% |
TPB TPB Turning Point Brands, Inc. | $1.6B | 57.4x | +6.3% | 11.5% | Buy | +56.5% |
XXI XXII 22nd Century Group, Inc. | $2M | — | -19.8% | -44.9% | — | — |
UVV UVV Universal Corporation | $1.3B | 12.5x | +1.7% | 1.1% | Buy | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MO Dividend and Capital Return
MO returns 6.9% total yield, led by a 6.00% dividend, raised 16 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.9%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
6.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.9%
Dividend Yield
6.00%
Payout Ratio
1.0%
How MO Splits Its Return
Div 6.00%
Dividend 6.00%Buybacks 0.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.15
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.2%
5Y Div CAGR
4.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
14M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.7B
At 0.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.12 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.16 | +4.0% | 1.0% | 8.2% |
| 2024 | $4.00 | +4.2% | 3.8% | 11.4% |
| 2023 | $3.84 | +4.3% | 1.4% | 10.9% |
| 2022 | $3.68 | +4.5% | 2.2% | 10.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsMO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Altria Group, Inc. (MO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $72, implying +3.9% from the current price of $69. The bear case scenario is $58 and the bull case is $122.
02What is the MO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MO is $72 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $77 (+11.4% from today), and the low-end target is $64 (-7.4%). The base case model target is $92.
03Is Altria Group, Inc. (MO) stock overvalued in 2026?
MO trades at 12.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Altria Group, Inc. (MO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MO in 2026 are: (1) Declining core business — Altria's core cigarette business is declining, posing a significant risk to long-term revenue and profitability. (2) Regulatory changes — External factors such as regulatory changes could negatively impact Altria's stock value and business operations. (3) Diversification challenges — The company faces challenges in diversifying away from its traditional tobacco products, which may limit growth opportunities. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Altria Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MO will report consensus revenue of $21.5B (-1.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.13 (+6.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $21.1B in revenue.
06When does Altria Group, Inc. (MO) report its next earnings?
Altria Group, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $1.48 and revenue of $5.3B. Over recent quarters, MO has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Altria Group, Inc. generate?
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) generated $8.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 39.5%. MO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.0% yield) and share repurchases ($1.0B TTM).