Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing BTI more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
18
analysts
12 bullish · 2 bearish · 18 covering BTI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
4
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$40
-32.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $127.8B
BTI price targets
Three scenarios for where BTI stock could go
Current
~$59
Confidence
42 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
British American Tobacco p.l.c.
BTI · NYSEConsumer DefensiveTobaccoDecember year-end
British American Tobacco is a global tobacco and nicotine company that manufactures and sells combustible cigarettes, vaping products, heated tobacco, and oral nicotine products. It generates revenue primarily from combustible cigarettes — which still contribute the majority of sales — alongside growing "new category" products like Vuse vaping devices and glo heated tobacco. The company's key advantage lies in its portfolio of iconic global brands — including Camel, Newport, and Lucky Strike — and its extensive international distribution network.
Market Cap
$127.8B
Revenue TTM
$51.8B
Net Income TTM
-$10.7B
Net Margin
-20.8%
BTI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-52.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2024
Q1 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2024
EPS
$2.55/$2.19
Revenue
$15.6B/$16.2B
Q1 2025
EPS
$-0.40/$2.44
Revenue
$16.9B/$17.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.79/$2.24
Revenue
$16.4B/$16.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.55/$2.50
Revenue
$18.4B/$17.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | $2.55/$2.19 | +16.4% | $15.6B/$16.2B | -3.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $-0.40/$2.44 | -116.4% | $16.9B/$17.7B | -4.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.79/$2.24 | +24.6% | $16.4B/$16.2B | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.55/$2.50 | +2.0% | $18.4B/$17.8B | +3.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$51.6B
-0.3% YoY
FY2
$51.1B
-1.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-2.67
+45.2% YoY
FY2
$-1.55
+42.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$18.7B
FCF Margin: 36.1%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.17
Expected Revenue
$16.4B
BTI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
BTI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $24.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Combustibles
93.0%
+4.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Foreign countries
100.0%
+7.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Combustibles is the largest disclosed segment at 93.0% of FY 2022 revenue, up 4.5% YoY.
Foreign countries is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 7.7% YoY.
BTI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $62 — implies +5.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
5.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BTI
32.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+33% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
BTI
32.6x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+72% premium
vs BTI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.6x
vs
5Y Average
16.6x
+96% premium
Forward PE
16.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-12%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+16%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+33%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+72%
5Y Avg
16.6x
+96%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+44%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+97%
5Y Avg
13.3x
+64%
Price/FCF
10.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
-51%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
-34%
5Y Avg
8.5x
+19%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+20%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+322%
5Y Avg
3.1x
+21%
Dividend Yield
5.29%
S&P 500
1.91%
+176%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
+73%
5Y Avg
6.20%
-15%
| Metric | BTI | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg BTI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.5x | 18.8x-12% | 14.2x+16% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.6x | 24.4x+33% | 18.9x+72% | 16.6x+96% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.9x | 15.2x+44% | 11.1x+97% | 13.3x+64% |
| Price/FCF | 10.1x | 20.7x-51% | 15.3x-34% | 8.5x+19% |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+20% | 0.9x+322% | 3.1x+21% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.29% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 6.20% |
BTI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBTI Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
BTI generates $18.7B in free cash flow at a 36.1% margin — returns 6.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$51.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-5.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
82.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-26.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-20.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-4.87
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$18.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
36.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-9.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$31.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.7× FCF
~1.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-22.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.1%
Dividend
5.3%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$792M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.34
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
169.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBTI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Growth outlook concerns
Investor concern around the company's 2026 outlook tracking toward the lower end of its medium-term growth targets.
Medium
Regulatory risk
Potential impact from the UK's plan to raise the tobacco purchasing age.
Lower
Market sentiment
Recent stock price decline reflects negative investor sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BTI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Undervalued forward P/E
BTI's forward P/E of 11.40 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to future earnings potential.
Diversified nicotine portfolio
The company offers a range of tobacco and nicotine products including vapour, heated, and modern oral products, positioning it for evolving consumer preferences.
Global market presence
BTI operates across multiple regions including Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, providing geographic diversification.
Strong dividend potential
The stock's attractive valuation metrics and consistent performance suggest potential for compounding dividends.
Analyst bullish sentiment
Multiple investment analysts have published bullish theses on BTI, highlighting its investment merits.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BTI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$58.91
52W Range Position
60%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$46.38
+27.0% from the low
52-Week High
$67.30
-12.5% from the high
1 Month
-11.21%
3 Month
+1.41%
YTD
+4.2%
1 Year
+19.4%
3Y CAGR
+21.7%
5Y CAGR
+8.7%
10Y CAGR
-0.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BTI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.5x
vs 16.9x median
-2% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-0.3%
vs +1.7% median
-118% below peer median
Net Margin
-20.8%
vs 11.5% median
-280% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTI BTI British American Tobacco p.l.c. | $127.8B | 16.5x | -0.3% | -20.8% | Buy | -32.1% |
MO MO Altria Group, Inc. | $115.6B | 12.2x | -1.6% | 36.9% | Buy | +3.9% |
PM PM Philip Morris International Inc. | $278.0B | 21.3x | +5.2% | 26.7% | Buy | +6.3% |
TPB TPB Turning Point Brands, Inc. | $1.6B | 57.4x | +6.3% | 11.5% | Buy | +56.5% |
UVV UVV Universal Corporation | $1.3B | 12.5x | +1.7% | 1.1% | Buy | — |
XXI XXII 22nd Century Group, Inc. | $2M | — | -19.8% | -44.9% | — | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BTI Dividend and Capital Return
BTI returns 6.1% total yield, led by a 5.29% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
5.29%
Payout Ratio
1.7%
How BTI Splits Its Return
Div 5.29%
Dividend 5.29%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.34
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.3%
5Y Div CAGR
3.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
7 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$792M
Estimated Shares Retired
13M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.2B
At 0.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.34 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.17 | +6.4% | — | — |
| 2024 | $2.98 | +2.7% | 1.0% | 7.4% |
| 2023 | $2.90 | +10.0% | 0.2% | 7.9% |
| 2022 | $2.64 | -10.3% | 2.3% | 7.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsBTI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $40, implying -32.1% from the current price of $59.
02What is the BTI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BTI is $40 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $40 (-32.1% from today), and the low-end target is $40 (-32.1%).
03Is British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) stock overvalued in 2026?
BTI trades at 16.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BTI in 2026 are: (1) Growth outlook concerns — Investor concern around the company's 2026 outlook tracking toward the lower end of its medium-term growth targets. (2) Regulatory risk — Potential impact from the UK's plan to raise the tobacco purchasing age. (3) Market sentiment — Recent stock price decline reflects negative investor sentiment. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BTI will report consensus revenue of $51.6B (-0.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $-2.67 (+45.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $51.1B in revenue.
06When does British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) report its next earnings?
British American Tobacco p.l.c. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $2.17 and revenue of $16.4B. Over recent quarters, BTI has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does British American Tobacco p.l.c. generate?
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) generated $18.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 36.1%. BTI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.3% yield) and share repurchases ($792M TTM).