Upside case
Bull case
$353+494.7%
BTI would need investors to value it at roughly 98x earnings — about 81x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
18
analysts
12 bullish · 2 bearish · 18 covering BTI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
4
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$40
-32.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $353
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $128.8B
BTI price targets
Three scenarios for where BTI stock could go
Current
~$59
Confidence
26 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $59
Bull
$353
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
British American Tobacco p.l.c.
BTI · NYSEConsumer DefensiveTobaccoDecember year-end
British American Tobacco is a global tobacco and nicotine company that manufactures and sells combustible cigarettes, vaping products, heated tobacco, and oral nicotine products. It generates revenue primarily from combustible cigarettes — which still contribute the majority of sales — alongside growing "new category" products like Vuse vaping devices and glo heated tobacco. The company's key advantage lies in its portfolio of iconic global brands — including Camel, Newport, and Lucky Strike — and its extensive international distribution network.
Market Cap
$128.8B
Revenue TTM
$51.8B
Net Income TTM
-$10.7B
Net Margin
-20.8%
BTI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-52.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2024
Q1 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2024
EPS
$2.55/$2.19
Revenue
$15.6B/$16.2B
Q1 2025
EPS
$-0.40/$2.44
Revenue
$16.9B/$17.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.79/$2.24
Revenue
$16.4B/$16.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.55/$2.50
Revenue
$18.4B/$17.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | $2.55/$2.19 | +16.4% | $15.6B/$16.2B | -3.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $-0.40/$2.44 | -116.4% | $16.9B/$17.7B | -4.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.79/$2.24 | +24.6% | $16.4B/$16.2B | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.55/$2.50 | +2.0% | $18.4B/$17.8B | +3.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$46.9B
-9.5% YoY
FY2
$45.9B
-2.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-2.73
+43.9% YoY
FY2
$-2.08
+23.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$18.7B
FCF Margin: 36.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BTI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
BTI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $24.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Combustibles
93.0%
+4.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Foreign countries
100.0%
+7.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Combustibles is the largest disclosed segment at 93.0% of FY 2022 revenue, up 4.5% YoY.
Foreign countries is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 7.7% YoY.
BTI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $53 — implies -10.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BTI
32.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+28% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
BTI
32.1x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
+69% premium
vs BTI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.1x
vs
5Y Average
16.6x
+93% premium
Forward PE
16.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-14%
Consumer Defensive
15.0x
+10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+28%
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
+69%
5Y Avg
16.6x
+93%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.87x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+42%
Consumer Defensive
11.5x
+88%
5Y Avg
13.3x
+62%
Price/FCF
10.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
-53%
Consumer Defensive
14.9x
-33%
5Y Avg
8.5x
+17%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+17%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+343%
5Y Avg
3.1x
+19%
Dividend Yield
5.36%
S&P 500
1.87%
+187%
Consumer Defensive
2.79%
+92%
5Y Avg
6.20%
-14%
| Metric | BTI | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg BTI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.4x | 19.1x-14% | 15.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.1x | 25.1x+28% | 19.1x+69% | 16.6x+93% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.87x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.7x | 15.2x+42% | 11.5x+88% | 13.3x+62% |
| Price/FCF | 10.0x | 21.1x-53% | 14.9x-33% | 8.5x+17% |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+17% | 0.8x+343% | 3.1x+19% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.36% | 1.87% | 2.79% | 6.20% |
BTI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBTI Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
BTI generates $18.7B in free cash flow at a 36.1% margin — returns 6.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$51.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-5.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
82.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-26.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-20.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-4.87
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$18.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
36.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-9.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$31.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.7× FCF
~1.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-22.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.2%
Dividend
5.4%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$792M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.34
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
169.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBTI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Bankruptcy Risk
BTI’s Altman Z‑Score of 1.46 places the company in the distress zone, indicating a potential risk of bankruptcy within the next two years. This could lead to significant loss of shareholder value and disruption of operations.
High Risk
Litigation & Legal Liabilities
A shareholder claim filed in London’s High Court in February 2026 over historic disclosures and sanctions conduct, coupled with a $508 million settlement of U.S. sanctions investigations, highlights ongoing compliance and reputational risks that could result in further legal costs and regulatory scrutiny.
Medium
Regulatory Uncertainty
U.S. proposals to lower nicotine content to minimally addictive levels pose a structural overhang for the combustible tobacco market, while shifting consumer preferences toward smokeless products add regulatory pressure that could erode BTI’s core business.
Medium
Declining Cigarette Volumes
BTI has experienced a consistent 5% annual decline in cigarette volumes in recent years. Even with price increases, the continued volume drop could pressure revenue and margin sustainability.
Medium
New Categories Performance
BTI’s vaping, heated tobacco, and modern oral tobacco segment grew overall, but the vapor segment saw a significant revenue drop in 2025 across geographies, indicating volatility in new product categories.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BTI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
RRPs to 50% Revenue by 2035
BTI aims for reduced‑risk products to represent 50% of its revenue by 2035. Modern oral products, such as vapes and heated tobacco, have shown significant surges, underpinning this shift.
Robust Cash Flow & Gross Margin
The company generates strong cash flow and maintains a high gross margin, enabling disciplined capital allocation. This financial resilience supports ongoing share buybacks and consistent dividend payments.
Premium Market Position & Emerging Growth
BTI holds a dominant position in premium combustible markets, especially in the U.S., preserving margins through pricing power. It is expanding smokeless products into emerging markets in APMEA and Latin America, driving future revenue growth.
Sustainable Dividend Yield
BTI offers a substantial dividend yield that is considered sustainable based on earnings estimates. The dividend policy attracts income‑focused investors and reinforces shareholder value.
Carbon Neutrality & Net‑Zero Targets
The company is proactively pursuing sustainability, with targets for carbon neutrality and net‑zero emissions. These initiatives enhance brand reputation and align with evolving regulatory and consumer expectations.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BTI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$59.40
52W Range Position
83%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$40.12
+48.1% from the low
52-Week High
$63.22
-6.0% from the high
1 Month
+1.18%
3 Month
-4.13%
YTD
+5.0%
1 Year
+35.8%
3Y CAGR
+18.6%
5Y CAGR
+9.2%
10Y CAGR
-0.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BTI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.4x
vs 16.6x median
-1% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-9.5%
vs +14.1% median
-167% below peer median
Net Margin
-20.8%
vs 12.6% median
-265% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTI BTI British American Tobacco p.l.c. | $128.8B | 16.4x | -9.5% | -20.8% | Buy | -32.7% |
MO MO Altria Group, Inc. | $121.7B | 12.9x | -2.6% | 36.9% | Buy | -5.9% |
PM PM Philip Morris International Inc. | $264.1B | 20.2x | +7.0% | 26.7% | Buy | +10.7% |
TPB TPB Turning Point Brands, Inc. | $1.5B | 31.7x | +17.2% | 12.6% | Buy | +60.6% |
UVV UVV Universal Corporation | $1.3B | 13.0x | +14.1% | 4.2% | Buy | — |
XXI XXII 22nd Century Group, Inc. | $613324 | — | +149.4% | -65.7% | — | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BTI Dividend and Capital Return
BTI returns 6.2% total yield, led by a 5.36% dividend, raised 23 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
5.36%
Payout Ratio
1.7%
How BTI Splits Its Return
Div 5.36%
Dividend 5.36%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.34
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
23Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.5%
5Y Div CAGR
3.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
7 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$792M
Estimated Shares Retired
13M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.2B
At 0.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.34 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.17 | +6.7% | — | — |
| 2024 | $2.97 | +6.0% | 1.0% | 7.4% |
| 2023 | $2.80 | -4.9% | 0.2% | 7.9% |
| 2022 | $2.95 | -1.3% | 2.3% | 7.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsBTI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $40, implying -32.7% from the current price of $59.
02What is the BTI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BTI is $40 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $40 (-32.7% from today), and the low-end target is $40 (-32.7%).
03Is British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) stock overvalued in 2026?
BTI trades at 16.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BTI in 2026 are: (1) Bankruptcy Risk — BTI’s Altman Z‑Score of 1. (2) Litigation & Legal Liabilities — A shareholder claim filed in London’s High Court in February 2026 over historic disclosures and sanctions conduct, coupled with a $508 million settlement of U. (3) Regulatory Uncertainty — U. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BTI will report consensus revenue of $46.9B (-9.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $-2.73 (+43.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $45.9B in revenue.
06When does British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BTI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does British American Tobacco p.l.c. generate?
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) generated $18.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 36.1%. BTI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.4% yield) and share repurchases ($792M TTM).