Upside case
Bull case
$294+77.0%
PSX would need investors to value it at roughly 17x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Phillips 66 (PSX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
35
analysts
20 bullish · 2 bearish · 35 covering PSX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
13
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$181
+9.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$141 – $294
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $66.6B
PSX price targets
Three scenarios for where PSX stock could go
Current
~$166
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $166
Bear
$141
Base
$223
Bull
$294
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$223+34.4%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$141-15.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push PSX down roughly 15% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Phillips 66
PSX · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingDecember year-end
Phillips 66 is an integrated energy manufacturing and logistics company that operates across the full hydrocarbon value chain. It makes money through four main segments: Refining (~60% of revenue), Chemicals (~20%), Midstream (~15%), and Marketing & Specialties (~5%), which together process crude oil into fuels and chemicals while transporting and marketing the products. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated asset base—refineries connected to pipelines, terminals, and chemical plants—which creates operational synergies and cost efficiencies across the value chain.
Market Cap
$66.6B
Revenue TTM
$135.8B
Net Income TTM
$4.1B
Net Margin
3.0%
PSX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.38/$1.72
Revenue
$33.3B/$33.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.52/$2.14
Revenue
$35.0B/$33.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.47/$2.15
Revenue
$36.3B/$33.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.49/$-0.54
Revenue
$33.0B/$35.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.38/$1.72 | +38.4% | $33.3B/$33.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.52/$2.14 | +17.8% | $35.0B/$33.5B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.47/$2.15 | +14.9% | $36.3B/$33.9B | +7.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.49/$-0.54 | +190.3% | $33.0B/$35.9B | -8.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$137.9B
+1.5% YoY
FY2
$138.8B
+0.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.98
+27.0% YoY
FY2
$13.42
+3.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$119M
FCF Margin: 0.1%
Next Earnings
July 24, 2026
Expected EPS
$6.46
Expected Revenue
$44.7B
PSX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
PSX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $90.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Consolidation, Eliminations
61.5%
+195.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
78.8%
-8.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Consolidation, Eliminations is the largest disclosed segment at 61.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 195.1% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 78.8%, down 8.2% YoY.
PSX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $150 — implies -9.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
9.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PSX
15.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
37% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
PSX
15.4x
vs
Energy
15.5x
In line with benchmark
vs PSX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.4x
vs
5Y Average
14.5x
+7% premium
Forward PE
9.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-50%
Energy
12.5x
-25%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-37%
Energy
15.5x
-0%
5Y Avg
14.5x
+7%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-15%
Energy
7.8x
+65%
5Y Avg
10.6x
+23%
Price/FCF
24.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+18%
Energy
13.8x
+77%
5Y Avg
13.3x
+84%
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-84%
Energy
1.4x
-64%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+47%
Dividend Yield
2.84%
S&P 500
1.91%
+48%
Energy
3.47%
-18%
5Y Avg
3.86%
-27%
| Metric | PSX | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg PSX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.4x | 18.8x-50% | 12.5x-25% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.4x | 24.4x-37% | 15.5x | 14.5x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.0x | 15.2x-15% | 7.8x+65% | 10.6x+23% |
| Price/FCF | 24.4x | 20.7x+18% | 13.8x+77% | 13.3x+84% |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-84% | 1.4x-64% | 0.3x+47% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.84% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 3.86% |
PSX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPSX Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
PSX returns 4.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$135.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
7.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.22
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$119M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$21.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
182.9× FCF
~182.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
14.1%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (5.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.6%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
1.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.71
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
43.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
401M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pagePSX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Refining margin volatility
Refining margins improved but chemical margins contracted sequentially, impacting earnings.
Lower
Earnings dip
Earnings-per-share dipped -2% despite exceeding analysts' consensus, indicating potential profitability pressures.
Medium
Balanced risk/reward
The stock presents a balanced risk/reward profile, suggesting limited upside potential.
High Risk
Sector cyclicality
Operating in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector exposes PSX to cyclical demand and price risks.
Medium
Chemical margin pressure
Chemical margins contracted sequentially, signaling potential challenges in the chemicals segment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PSX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Moderate moat advantage
Phillips 66 has a moderate moat, indicating competitive advantages that support long-term profitability.
Comprehensive institutional research
In-depth institutional research covers valuation, catalysts, and risks, providing a robust analysis for investors.
Strong 2026-2031 outlook
The company's financial and business outlook from 2026 to 2031 is positive, suggesting growth potential.
Diverse valuation methods
Multiple valuation methods are applied, offering a thorough assessment of Phillips 66's investment potential.
Recent catalysts identified
Recent catalysts are highlighted, which could drive short-term performance and investor interest.
Detailed bull/bear scenarios
Analysis includes detailed bull and bear scenarios, helping investors weigh potential outcomes.
Management scoring included
Management performance is scored, providing insight into leadership effectiveness and strategic direction.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PSX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$166.14
52W Range Position
66%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$118.00
+40.8% from the low
52-Week High
$190.61
-12.8% from the high
1 Month
-7.60%
3 Month
-3.82%
YTD
+27.2%
1 Year
+33.1%
3Y CAGR
+21.1%
5Y CAGR
+14.6%
10Y CAGR
+7.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PSX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.4x
vs 8.2x median
+14% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.5%
vs +4.1% median
-63% below peer median
Net Margin
3.0%
vs 3.3% median
-9% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PSX PSX Phillips 66 | $66.6B | 9.4x | +1.5% | 3.0% | Buy | +9.0% |
VLO VLO Valero Energy Corporation | $70.7B | 8.4x | +4.1% | 3.3% | Buy | +3.5% |
MPC MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | $70.9B | 8.2x | +3.9% | 3.4% | Buy | +6.8% |
PBF PBF PBF Energy Inc. | $4.4B | 5.3x | +13.1% | -0.5% | Hold | +16.0% |
DK DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. | $2.5B | 8.0x | +2.8% | -0.5% | Hold | +13.3% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $346.5B | 12.1x | +8.6% | 6.7% | Buy | +15.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PSX Dividend and Capital Return
PSX returns 4.6% total yield, led by a 2.84% dividend, raised 14 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.8%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.8%
Dividend Yield
2.84%
Payout Ratio
43.7%
How PSX Splits Its Return
Div 2.84%
Buyback 1.8%
Dividend 2.84%Buybacks 1.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.71
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.4%
5Y Div CAGR
5.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
401M
At 1.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.54 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.75 | +5.6% | 2.3% | 5.9% |
| 2024 | $4.50 | +7.1% | 7.2% | 11.1% |
| 2023 | $4.20 | +9.7% | 6.7% | 9.8% |
| 2022 | $3.83 | +7.6% | 3.1% | 6.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsPSX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Phillips 66 (PSX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Phillips 66 (PSX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $181, implying +9.0% from the current price of $166. The bear case scenario is $141 and the bull case is $294.
02What is the PSX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PSX is $181 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $212 (+27.6% from today), and the low-end target is $140 (-15.7%). The base case model target is $223.
03Is Phillips 66 (PSX) stock overvalued in 2026?
PSX trades at 9.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Phillips 66 (PSX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PSX in 2026 are: (1) Sector cyclicality — Operating in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector exposes PSX to cyclical demand and price risks. (2) Refining margin volatility — Refining margins improved but chemical margins contracted sequentially, impacting earnings. (3) Balanced risk/reward — The stock presents a balanced risk/reward profile, suggesting limited upside potential. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Phillips 66's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PSX will report consensus revenue of $137.9B (+1.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.98 (+27.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $138.8B in revenue.
06When does Phillips 66 (PSX) report its next earnings?
Phillips 66 is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-24. Consensus expects EPS of $6.46 and revenue of $44.7B. Over recent quarters, PSX has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Phillips 66 generate?
Phillips 66 (PSX) generated $119M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.1%. PSX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).