Upside case
Bull case
$629+248.8%
PSX would need investors to value it at roughly 43x earnings — about 30x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Phillips 66 (PSX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
35
analysts
19 bullish · 2 bearish · 35 covering PSX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
14
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$163
-9.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $629
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $72.3B
PSX price targets
Three scenarios for where PSX stock could go
Current
~$180
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $180
Base
$197
Bull
$629
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$197+9.4%
This is close to how the market is already pricing PSX — at roughly 13x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Phillips 66
PSX · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingDecember year-end
Phillips 66 is an integrated energy manufacturing and logistics company that operates across the full hydrocarbon value chain. It makes money through four main segments: Refining (~60% of revenue), Chemicals (~20%), Midstream (~15%), and Marketing & Specialties (~5%), which together process crude oil into fuels and chemicals while transporting and marketing the products. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated asset base—refineries connected to pipelines, terminals, and chemical plants—which creates operational synergies and cost efficiencies across the value chain.
Market Cap
$72.3B
Revenue TTM
$135.8B
Net Income TTM
$4.1B
Net Margin
3.0%
PSX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.38/$1.72
Revenue
$33.3B/$33.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.52/$2.14
Revenue
$35.0B/$33.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.47/$2.15
Revenue
$36.3B/$33.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.49/$-0.54
Revenue
$33.0B/$35.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.38/$1.72 | +38.4% | $33.3B/$33.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.52/$2.14 | +17.8% | $35.0B/$33.5B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.47/$2.15 | +14.9% | $36.3B/$33.9B | +7.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.49/$-0.54 | +190.3% | $33.0B/$35.9B | -8.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$140.4B
+3.4% YoY
FY2
$133.3B
-5.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.83
+15.7% YoY
FY2
$11.80
-0.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$119M
FCF Margin: 0.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PSX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
PSX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $90.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Consolidation, Eliminations
61.5%
+195.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
78.8%
-8.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Consolidation, Eliminations is the largest disclosed segment at 61.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 195.1% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 78.8%, down 8.2% YoY.
PSX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $155 — implies -11.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
11.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PSX
16.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
33% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
PSX
16.7x
vs
Energy
17.1x
In line with benchmark
vs PSX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.7x
vs
5Y Average
14.5x
+16% premium
Forward PE
12.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-36%
Energy
13.9x
-12%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
-33%
Energy
17.1x
-2%
5Y Avg
14.5x
+16%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Energy
0.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-9%
Energy
8.0x
+71%
5Y Avg
10.6x
+31%
Price/FCF
26.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
+26%
Energy
13.8x
+92%
5Y Avg
13.3x
+99%
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-83%
Energy
1.6x
-67%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+59%
Dividend Yield
2.61%
S&P 500
1.87%
+40%
Energy
2.73%
-4%
5Y Avg
3.86%
-32%
| Metric | PSX | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg PSX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.3x | 19.1x-36% | 13.9x-12% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.7x | 25.1x-33% | 17.1x | 14.5x+16% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.8x | 15.2x | 8.0x+71% | 10.6x+31% |
| Price/FCF | 26.5x | 21.1x+26% | 13.8x+92% | 13.3x+99% |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-83% | 1.6x-67% | 0.3x+59% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.61% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 3.86% |
PSX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPSX Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
PSX returns 4.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$135.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
7.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.22
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$119M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$21.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
182.9× FCF
~182.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
14.1%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (5.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.3%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
1.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.71
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
43.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
401M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pagePSX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices can significantly erode Phillips 66's refining margins. Narrowing sweet‑sour differentials and product crack spreads further compress profitability.
Medium
Midstream Segment Performance
The midstream unit has been operating with moderate margins, partly due to lower volumes. This has contributed to a decline in share buybacks and a rise in debt levels.
Medium
Debt Levels
Phillips 66 has experienced an increase in debt, raising leverage and potentially limiting financial flexibility.
Medium
Reduced Earnings Estimates
Upcoming quarterly EPS estimates have been lowered, driven by commodity mark‑to‑market values and utilization guidance.
Lower
Operational Efficiency
Refinery turnarounds and other operational disruptions can temporarily impair production and cash flow.
Lower
Global Demand
A weakening outlook for global product demand could dampen investor sentiment and negatively affect the company's financial results.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PSX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Integrated Refining & Marketing Model
Phillips 66’s vertically integrated operations across refining, marketing, and transportation allow it to capture value at each stage of the fuel supply chain. The company’s focus on cost control and efficiency is expected to lift profit margins over time.
Projected Midstream & Chemical EBITDA Growth
Analysts project midstream and chemical EBITDA growth of approximately $1.0 billion by 2027, driven by strategic expansion in these segments. This growth is expected to enhance overall earnings and support margin expansion.
Strong Q1 2025 Earnings & Shareholder Returns
In Q1 2025, PSX earned over $2.9 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. The firm has a market capitalization of over $70 billion and a history of consistent dividend increases and share buybacks, reinforcing shareholder value.
Beneficiary of Diesel & Chemical Price Surge
Rising diesel and chemical prices are bullish for PSX’s performance, as the company’s refining and marketing operations directly benefit from higher commodity prices. This market condition supports revenue growth and margin improvement.
Strategic Growth in Renewables & Midstream
Phillips 66 is pursuing selective growth projects in renewables, midstream, and chemicals, positioning itself for long‑term diversification. These initiatives are expected to create new revenue streams and strengthen the company’s competitive moat.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PSX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$180.26
52W Range Position
88%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$104.83
+72.0% from the low
52-Week High
$190.61
-5.4% from the high
1 Month
+1.65%
3 Month
+16.73%
YTD
+38.1%
1 Year
+68.6%
3Y CAGR
+24.5%
5Y CAGR
+16.2%
10Y CAGR
+8.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PSX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.3x
vs 11.7x median
+4% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.4%
vs +0.2% median
+1871% above peer median
Net Margin
3.0%
vs 3.3% median
-9% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PSX PSX Phillips 66 | $72.3B | 12.3x | +3.4% | 3.0% | Buy | -9.4% |
VLO VLO Valero Energy Corporation | $75.8B | 10.8x | +0.2% | 3.3% | Buy | -15.3% |
MPC MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | $76.7B | 11.7x | +4.0% | 3.4% | Buy | -17.6% |
PBF PBF PBF Energy Inc. | $5.4B | 8.4x | -2.1% | -0.5% | Hold | -17.7% |
DK DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. | $3.0B | 13.0x | -4.9% | -0.5% | Hold | -9.6% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $384.4B | 15.9x | +10.2% | 6.7% | Buy | -0.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PSX Dividend and Capital Return
PSX returns 4.3% total yield, led by a 2.61% dividend, raised 13 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.7%
Dividend Yield
2.61%
Payout Ratio
43.7%
How PSX Splits Its Return
Div 2.61%
Buyback 1.7%
Dividend 2.61%Buybacks 1.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.71
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
13Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.4%
5Y Div CAGR
5.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
401M
At 1.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.54 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.75 | +5.6% | 2.3% | 5.9% |
| 2024 | $4.50 | +7.1% | 7.2% | 11.1% |
| 2023 | $4.20 | +9.7% | 6.7% | 9.8% |
| 2022 | $3.83 | +7.6% | 3.1% | 6.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsPSX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Phillips 66 (PSX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Phillips 66 (PSX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $163, implying -9.4% from the current price of $180.
02What is the PSX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PSX is $163 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $180 (-0.1% from today), and the low-end target is $140 (-22.3%). The base case model target is $197.
03Is Phillips 66 (PSX) stock overvalued in 2026?
PSX trades at 12.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Phillips 66 (PSX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PSX in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — Fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices can significantly erode Phillips 66's refining margins. (2) Midstream Segment Performance — The midstream unit has been operating with moderate margins, partly due to lower volumes. (3) Debt Levels — Phillips 66 has experienced an increase in debt, raising leverage and potentially limiting financial flexibility. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Phillips 66's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PSX will report consensus revenue of $140.4B (+3.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.83 (+15.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $133.3B in revenue.
06When does Phillips 66 (PSX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PSX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Phillips 66 generate?
Phillips 66 (PSX) generated $119M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.1%. PSX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).