Upside case
Bull case
$663+172.8%
MPC would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
25 bullish · 0 bearish · 33 covering MPC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$259
+6.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$317 – $663
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $70.9B
MPC price targets
Three scenarios for where MPC stock could go
Current
~$243
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $243
Bear
$317
Base
$503
Bull
$663
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$503+107.0%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$317+30.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push MPC down roughly 30% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
MPC · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingDecember year-end
Marathon Petroleum is an integrated downstream energy company that refines crude oil into transportation fuels and other petroleum products. It makes money primarily through its Refining & Marketing segment — which converts crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and other fuels — and its Midstream segment that transports and stores crude and refined products. The company's competitive advantage lies in its large-scale, strategically located refinery network and integrated logistics system that provides operational efficiency and market access.
Market Cap
$70.9B
Revenue TTM
$135.8B
Net Income TTM
$4.6B
Net Margin
3.4%
MPC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+323.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.96/$3.24
Revenue
$33.8B/$33.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.01/$3.15
Revenue
$34.8B/$33.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.07/$2.72
Revenue
$33.4B/$31.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.65/$0.74
Revenue
$34.6B/$33.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.96/$3.24 | +22.2% | $33.8B/$33.3B | +1.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.01/$3.15 | -4.4% | $34.8B/$33.5B | +4.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07/$2.72 | +49.6% | $33.4B/$31.1B | +7.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.65/$0.74 | +123.3% | $34.6B/$33.4B | +3.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$141.0B
+3.9% YoY
FY2
$143.4B
+1.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$25.45
+62.1% YoY
FY2
$27.94
+9.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.7B
FCF Margin: 4.2%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$11.59
Expected Revenue
$41.7B
MPC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MPC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $132.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Refining And Marketing
93.6%
-5.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Midstream
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Refining And Marketing is the largest disclosed segment at 93.6% of FY 2025 revenue, down 5.6% YoY.
Midstream is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
MPC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $315 — implies +29.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
29.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MPC
18.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
25% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
MPC
18.3x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+18% premium
vs MPC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.3x
vs
5Y Average
12.1x
+52% premium
Forward PE
8.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-56%
Energy
12.5x
-34%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
-25%
Energy
15.5x
+18%
5Y Avg
12.1x
+52%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-26%
Energy
7.8x
+44%
5Y Avg
6.9x
+64%
Price/FCF
14.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
-28%
Energy
13.8x
+8%
5Y Avg
8.3x
+79%
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-83%
Energy
1.4x
-62%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+48%
Dividend Yield
1.54%
S&P 500
1.91%
-20%
Energy
3.47%
-56%
5Y Avg
2.51%
-39%
| Metric | MPC | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg MPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.2x | 18.8x-56% | 12.5x-34% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.3x | 24.4x-25% | 15.5x+18% | 12.1x+52% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.3x | 15.2x-26% | 7.8x+44% | 6.9x+64% |
| Price/FCF | 14.9x | 20.7x-28% | 13.8x | 8.3x+79% |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-83% | 1.4x-62% | 0.4x+48% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.54% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 2.51% |
MPC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMPC Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MPC returns 6.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$135.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
8.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$15.70
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$30.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.4× FCF
~5.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.5%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
4.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.74
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
28.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
292M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMPC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Margin Compression
Prolonged margin compression due to weaker demand or oversupply could significantly impact profitability.
High Risk
Operational Disruptions
Potential operational disruptions may lead to production halts or inefficiencies, affecting revenue.
Medium
Regulatory Shifts
Adverse regulatory changes, such as biofuel mandate adjustments, could pose challenges to business operations.
Medium
Valuation Risk
Analyst low valuation (~$170.63) suggests downside risk if bearish scenarios materialize.
Lower
Sector Outlook
Energy sector volatility may influence Marathon Petroleum's performance and investor sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MPC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Tighter global fuel markets
Marathon Petroleum benefits from tighter global fuel markets due to disruptions like the Strait of Hormuz closure, which has lifted refining margins.
Strong refining margins
The company is seeing increased refining margins as a result of global supply disruptions, enhancing profitability.
Growing midstream earnings
Marathon Petroleum's midstream segment is contributing to earnings growth, adding diversification and stability to its revenue streams.
Capital returns focus
The company's emphasis on capital returns is attracting investor attention, particularly in volatile market conditions.
Attractive valuation metrics
With trailing and forward P/E ratios of 16.99 and 7.43 respectively, Marathon Petroleum appears undervalued compared to its earnings potential.
Bullish investor sentiment
Recent bullish analyses highlight Marathon Petroleum's potential, driven by strong fundamentals and favorable market conditions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MPC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$242.91
52W Range Position
74%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$158.00
+53.7% from the low
52-Week High
$272.46
-10.8% from the high
1 Month
-6.40%
3 Month
+2.82%
YTD
+47.1%
1 Year
+45.1%
3Y CAGR
+29.9%
5Y CAGR
+32.8%
10Y CAGR
+21.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MPC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.2x
vs 8.4x median
-3% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.9%
vs +4.1% median
-7% below peer median
Net Margin
3.4%
vs 3.0% median
+12% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MPC MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | $70.9B | 8.2x | +3.9% | 3.4% | Buy | +6.8% |
VLO VLO Valero Energy Corporation | $70.7B | 8.4x | +4.1% | 3.3% | Buy | +3.5% |
PSX PSX Phillips 66 | $66.6B | 9.4x | +1.5% | 3.0% | Buy | +9.0% |
PBF PBF PBF Energy Inc. | $4.4B | 5.3x | +13.1% | -0.5% | Hold | +16.0% |
DK DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. | $2.5B | 8.0x | +2.8% | -0.5% | Hold | +13.3% |
MPL MPLX MPLX Lp | $57.7B | 13.2x | +8.8% | 37.5% | Buy | +6.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MPC Dividend and Capital Return
MPC returns capital mainly through $3.5B/year in buybacks (4.9% buyback yield), with a modest 1.54% dividend — combining for 6.5% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.9%
Dividend Yield
1.54%
Payout Ratio
28.2%
How MPC Splits Its Return
Div 1.54%
Buyback 4.9%
Dividend 1.54%Buybacks 4.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.74
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.4%
5Y Div CAGR
10.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
14M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
292M
At 4.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.73 | +10.2% | 7.0% | 9.3% |
| 2024 | $3.38 | +10.1% | 19.3% | 21.7% |
| 2023 | $3.08 | +23.5% | 19.1% | 21.1% |
| 2022 | $2.49 | +7.3% | 19.9% | 22.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsMPC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $259, implying +6.8% from the current price of $243. The bear case scenario is $317 and the bull case is $663.
02What is the MPC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MPC is $259 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $344 (+41.6% from today), and the low-end target is $174 (-28.4%). The base case model target is $503.
03Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) stock overvalued in 2026?
MPC trades at 8.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MPC in 2026 are: (1) Margin Compression — Prolonged margin compression due to weaker demand or oversupply could significantly impact profitability. (2) Operational Disruptions — Potential operational disruptions may lead to production halts or inefficiencies, affecting revenue. (3) Regulatory Shifts — Adverse regulatory changes, such as biofuel mandate adjustments, could pose challenges to business operations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Marathon Petroleum Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MPC will report consensus revenue of $141.0B (+3.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $25.45 (+62.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $143.4B in revenue.
06When does Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) report its next earnings?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $11.59 and revenue of $41.7B. Over recent quarters, MPC has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Marathon Petroleum Corporation generate?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) generated $5.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.2%. MPC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($3.5B TTM).