Upside case
Bull case
$1811+636.9%
MPC would need investors to value it at roughly 82x earnings — about 70x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
25 bullish · 0 bearish · 33 covering MPC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$215
-12.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $1811
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $72.4B
MPC price targets
Three scenarios for where MPC stock could go
Current
~$246
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $246
Base
$330
Bull
$1811
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$330+34.1%
At 15x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
MPC · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingDecember year-end
Marathon Petroleum is an integrated downstream energy company that refines crude oil into transportation fuels and other petroleum products. It makes money primarily through its Refining & Marketing segment — which converts crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and other fuels — and its Midstream segment that transports and stores crude and refined products. The company's competitive advantage lies in its large-scale, strategically located refinery network and integrated logistics system that provides operational efficiency and market access.
Market Cap
$72.4B
Revenue TTM
$135.8B
Net Income TTM
$4.6B
Net Margin
3.4%
MPC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+323.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.96/$3.24
Revenue
$33.8B/$33.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.01/$3.15
Revenue
$34.8B/$33.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.07/$2.72
Revenue
$33.4B/$31.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.65/$0.74
Revenue
$34.6B/$33.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.96/$3.24 | +22.2% | $33.8B/$33.3B | +1.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.01/$3.15 | -4.4% | $34.8B/$33.5B | +4.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07/$2.72 | +49.6% | $33.4B/$31.1B | +7.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.65/$0.74 | +123.3% | $34.6B/$33.4B | +3.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$139.0B
+2.4% YoY
FY2
$133.3B
-4.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$18.58
+18.4% YoY
FY2
$17.79
-4.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.7B
FCF Margin: 4.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MPC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MPC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $132.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Refining And Marketing
93.6%
-5.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Midstream
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Refining And Marketing is the largest disclosed segment at 93.6% of FY 2025 revenue, down 5.6% YoY.
Midstream is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
MPC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $196 — implies -20.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
20.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MPC
18.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
27% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
MPC
18.5x
vs
Energy
16.9x
+10% premium
vs MPC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.5x
vs
5Y Average
12.1x
+54% premium
Forward PE
11.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-42%
Energy
13.2x
-16%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-27%
Energy
16.9x
+10%
5Y Avg
12.1x
+54%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-25%
Energy
8.1x
+40%
5Y Avg
6.9x
+66%
Price/FCF
15.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
-29%
Energy
14.1x
+7%
5Y Avg
8.3x
+83%
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-83%
Energy
1.6x
-65%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+51%
Dividend Yield
1.52%
S&P 500
1.88%
-19%
Energy
2.97%
-49%
5Y Avg
2.51%
-39%
| Metric | MPC | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg MPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.1x | 19.1x-42% | 13.2x-16% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.5x | 25.2x-27% | 16.9x | 12.1x+54% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.4x | 15.3x-25% | 8.1x+40% | 6.9x+66% |
| Price/FCF | 15.2x | 21.3x-29% | 14.1x | 8.3x+83% |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-83% | 1.6x-65% | 0.4x+51% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.52% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 2.51% |
MPC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMPC Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MPC returns 6.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$135.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
8.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$15.70
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$30.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.4× FCF
~5.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.3%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
4.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.74
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
28.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
294M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMPC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Market Price Volatility
Fluctuations in crude oil and refined product prices directly affect MPC’s gross margins. Sustained low crude prices can strain suppliers, potentially leading to long‑term supply constraints and inventory valuation swings.
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory Risks
Approximately 32% of MPC’s risk exposure stems from legal and regulatory issues, including rail transport regulations that could raise costs or limit volumes. Changes to hydraulic fracturing rules may reduce natural gas production by customers, cutting MPC’s revenue streams.
Medium
Geopolitical Events & Oil Price Sustainability
Uncertainty around geopolitical tensions and the long‑term sustainability of oil prices can trigger rapid market shifts. Such volatility can erode refining margins and disrupt supply chains, impacting profitability.
Medium
Production Risks
About 18% of MPC’s risk profile is tied to production, covering manufacturing risks and potential declines in oil and natural gas output in MPLX operating areas. Reduced output can negatively affect cash flow and earnings.
Medium
Contract Renewal & Commodity Risk
Failure to secure favorable renewal terms for existing contracts could lower gross margins and cash flows. Engaging in contracts with commodity risk exposure jeopardizes steady cash flow and dividend payments.
Lower
Business Interruption
MPC faces the risk of pipeline and plant damage from natural disasters or third‑party actions. Such events could halt operations, reduce revenue, and increase repair costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MPC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Refining Margin Surge
MPC reported a 44% jump in refining margins in early February 2026, driven by higher product demand and efficient crude processing. The company’s ability to handle sour crude and expand its branded retail footprint further supports margin expansion.
Capital Return Momentum
In Q4 2025, MPC returned approximately $1.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Management highlighted strong buyback capacity for 2026, underscoring a commitment to delivering cash back to investors.
Midstream Platform Stability
MPC’s integrated midstream platform, anchored by MPLX, generates stable fee‑based cash flows. These cash flows provide a reliable foundation for ongoing dividends and share repurchases.
Refinery Upgrade Focus
The company is prioritizing refinery upgrades and synergistic capital spending to enhance its midstream assets. These initiatives aim to improve operational efficiency and long‑term profitability.
Operational Utilization
MPC’s capacity to process sour crude and expand branded retail operations boosts utilization rates. Higher utilization translates into stronger earnings and cash‑flow generation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MPC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$245.78
52W Range Position
87%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$141.91
+73.2% from the low
52-Week High
$261.61
-6.1% from the high
1 Month
+1.81%
3 Month
+21.07%
YTD
+48.8%
1 Year
+70.0%
3Y CAGR
+31.2%
5Y CAGR
+32.8%
10Y CAGR
+21.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MPC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.1x
vs 11.7x median
-5% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.4%
vs +0.2% median
+1284% above peer median
Net Margin
3.4%
vs 3.0% median
+12% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MPC MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | $72.4B | 11.1x | +2.4% | 3.4% | Buy | -12.6% |
VLO VLO Valero Energy Corporation | $70.8B | 10.0x | +0.2% | 3.3% | Buy | -9.3% |
PSX PSX Phillips 66 | $68.8B | 11.7x | +3.4% | 3.0% | Buy | -4.9% |
PBF PBF PBF Energy Inc. | $4.9B | 7.5x | -2.1% | -0.5% | Hold | -8.6% |
DK DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. | $2.8B | 11.9x | -4.9% | -0.5% | Hold | -1.5% |
MPL MPLX MPLX Lp | $56.5B | 12.6x | +6.2% | 37.5% | Buy | +8.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MPC Dividend and Capital Return
MPC returns capital mainly through $3.5B/year in buybacks (4.5% buyback yield), with a modest 1.43% dividend — combining for 6.0% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.5%
Dividend Yield
1.43%
Payout Ratio
28.2%
How MPC Splits Its Return
Div 1.43%
Buyback 4.5%
Dividend 1.43%Buybacks 4.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.74
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.4%
5Y Div CAGR
10.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
14M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
294M
At 4.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.73 | +10.2% | 7.0% | 9.3% |
| 2024 | $3.38 | +10.1% | 19.3% | 21.7% |
| 2023 | $3.08 | +23.5% | 19.1% | 21.1% |
| 2022 | $2.49 | +7.3% | 19.9% | 22.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsMPC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $215, implying -12.6% from the current price of $246.
02What is the MPC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MPC is $215 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $233 (-5.2% from today), and the low-end target is $174 (-29.2%). The base case model target is $330.
03Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) stock overvalued in 2026?
MPC trades at 11.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MPC in 2026 are: (1) Market Price Volatility — Fluctuations in crude oil and refined product prices directly affect MPC’s gross margins. (2) Legal & Regulatory Risks — Approximately 32% of MPC’s risk exposure stems from legal and regulatory issues, including rail transport regulations that could raise costs or limit volumes. (3) Geopolitical Events & Oil Price Sustainability — Uncertainty around geopolitical tensions and the long‑term sustainability of oil prices can trigger rapid market shifts. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Marathon Petroleum Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MPC will report consensus revenue of $139.0B (+2.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $18.58 (+18.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $133.3B in revenue.
06When does Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MPC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Marathon Petroleum Corporation generate?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) generated $5.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.2%. MPC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.4% yield) and share repurchases ($3.5B TTM).