Upside case
Bull case
$530+175.0%
CVX would need investors to value it at roughly 44x earnings — about 28x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Chevron Corporation (CVX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
53
analysts
33 bullish · 4 bearish · 53 covering CVX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
33
Hold
16
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$191
-0.9% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $530
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
53
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $384.4B
CVX price targets
Three scenarios for where CVX stock could go
Current
~$193
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $193
Base
$240
Bull
$530
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$240+24.5%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Chevron Corporation
CVX · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Chevron is a global integrated energy company that explores for, produces, and refines oil and natural gas. It makes money primarily through upstream oil and gas production (~60% of earnings) and downstream refining and marketing of petroleum products (~40%). Its competitive advantage lies in massive scale, vertically integrated operations, and decades of technical expertise in complex energy projects.
Market Cap
$384.4B
Revenue TTM
$184.4B
Net Income TTM
$12.3B
Net Margin
6.7%
CVX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.77/$1.73
Revenue
$44.4B/$43.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.85/$1.69
Revenue
$48.2B/$48.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.52/$1.41
Revenue
$46.9B/$46.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.41/$1.00
Revenue
$48.6B/$51.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.77/$1.73 | +2.3% | $44.4B/$43.9B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.85/$1.69 | +9.5% | $48.2B/$48.9B | -1.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.52/$1.41 | +7.8% | $46.9B/$46.8B | +0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.41/$1.00 | +41.0% | $48.6B/$51.9B | -6.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$203.2B
+10.2% YoY
FY2
$189.9B
-6.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.08
+47.4% YoY
FY2
$8.26
-9.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$16.2B
FCF Margin: 8.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CVX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CVX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $118.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Downstream
61.1%
-50.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Downstream Segment
61.4%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Downstream is the largest disclosed segment at 61.1% of FY 2025 revenue, down 50.5% YoY.
Downstream Segment is the largest reported region at 61.4%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CVX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $173 — implies -9.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
9.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CVX
29.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+16% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
CVX
29.1x
vs
Energy
17.1x
+70% premium
vs CVX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.1x
vs
5Y Average
15.1x
+93% premium
Forward PE
15.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-17%
Energy
13.9x
+14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+16%
Energy
17.1x
+70%
5Y Avg
15.1x
+93%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Energy
0.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-25%
Energy
8.0x
+42%
5Y Avg
6.8x
+67%
Price/FCF
23.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
+10%
Energy
13.8x
+68%
5Y Avg
13.7x
+69%
Price/Sales
2.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-33%
Energy
1.6x
+26%
5Y Avg
1.4x
+44%
Dividend Yield
3.57%
S&P 500
1.87%
+91%
Energy
2.73%
+31%
5Y Avg
4.14%
-14%
| Metric | CVX | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg CVX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.9x | 19.1x-17% | 13.9x+14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.1x | 25.1x+16% | 17.1x+70% | 15.1x+93% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.4x | 15.2x-25% | 8.0x+42% | 6.8x+67% |
| Price/FCF | 23.2x | 21.1x | 13.8x+68% | 13.7x+69% |
| Price/Sales | 2.1x | 3.1x-33% | 1.6x+26% | 1.4x+44% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.57% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 4.14% |
CVX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCVX Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CVX generates $16.2B in free cash flow at a 8.8% margin — returns 6.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$184.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-4.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.16
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$16.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$6.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$40.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.5× FCF
~2.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.6%
Dividend
3.6%
Buyback
3.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$11.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.87
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
103.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCVX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Fluctuations in global crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid prices can materially affect Chevron’s earnings, cash flow, and liquidity. Extended periods of low prices or demand reductions directly erode production margins and free‑cash‑flow generation.
High Risk
Climate Regulation & Litigation
Chevron faces increasing regulatory scrutiny and climate‑related litigation, including “Climate Superfund” lawsuits seeking damages for infrastructure upgrades. New greenhouse‑gas mandates and ESG pressures could reduce demand for fossil fuels and impose costly compliance measures.
Medium
Geopolitical Instability
Tensions in the Middle East and sanctions in regions such as Venezuela can trigger price spikes and supply‑demand imbalances, creating market uncertainty. These events can disrupt operations and elevate commodity risk exposure.
Medium
Legal & Regulatory Pressures
Refining margin caps, California environmental mandates, and other regulatory actions may force asset wind‑downs and increase compliance costs. Such measures can constrain operational flexibility and profitability.
Lower
Cybersecurity Threats
Cyberattacks targeting Chevron’s operational technology networks could disrupt production, compromise safety systems, and expose sensitive data. The potential for operational downtime and regulatory penalties adds to risk exposure.
Lower
Financial Reporting & Dividend Stability
Accounting matters, financial reporting accuracy, and dividend policy decisions influence investor confidence. Errors or adverse changes could impact liquidity and shareholder returns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CVX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
World-Class Low-Cost Asset Portfolio
Chevron owns a portfolio of low-cost, long-life assets, including the Permian Basin, Tengiz field in Kazakhstan, and the Gorgon LNG project in Australia. The company is experiencing record production growth from Guyana and the Deepwater Gulf of America, with further upside expected from the Hess acquisition.
Capital Discipline Fuels Financial Resilience
Chevron selectively invests in high-return projects and maintains a strong balance sheet, enabling it to weather market downturns. The company prioritizes shareholder returns through consistent dividend growth and share repurchases.
39-Year Dividend Growth Legacy
Chevron has increased its dividend for 39 consecutive years, earning Dividend Aristocrat status and attracting income-focused investors.
Hess Acquisition Boosts Revenue & Cash Flow
The acquisition of Hess is expected to support revenue and cash flow over time. Chevron is also investing in carbon capture, hydrogen, and renewable fuels to enhance margins and regulatory resilience.
Geopolitical Tensions Raise Oil Prices
Geopolitical tensions have led to increased oil prices, which benefit Chevron's upstream-heavy profile by enhancing revenue and cash flow.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CVX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$192.66
52W Range Position
73%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$133.77
+44.0% from the low
52-Week High
$214.71
-10.3% from the high
1 Month
-3.12%
3 Month
+7.49%
YTD
+23.6%
1 Year
+42.2%
3Y CAGR
+6.3%
5Y CAGR
+12.1%
10Y CAGR
+6.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CVX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.9x
vs 9.1x median
+73% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.2%
vs +3.3% median
+204% above peer median
Net Margin
6.7%
vs 8.2% median
-19% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $384.4B | 15.9x | +10.2% | 6.7% | Buy | -0.9% |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $656.4B | 15.6x | +7.0% | 8.9% | Hold | +3.6% |
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $121.4B | 9.1x | +2.9% | 1.6% | Hold | -5.6% |
SHE SHEL Shell plc | $253.9B | 9.1x | +3.3% | 6.7% | Buy | +5.5% |
TTE TTE TotalEnergies SE | $208.4B | 8.8x | -2.2% | 8.2% | Buy | -19.9% |
COP COP ConocoPhillips | $150.3B | 14.3x | +8.9% | 12.6% | Buy | +3.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CVX Dividend and Capital Return
CVX returns 6.6% total yield, led by a 3.57% dividend, raised 38 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 3.1%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
6.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.1%
Dividend Yield
3.57%
Payout Ratio
1.0%
How CVX Splits Its Return
Div 3.57%
Buyback 3.1%
Dividend 3.57%Buybacks 3.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.87
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
38Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.4%
5Y Div CAGR
5.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$11.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
62M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.0B
At 3.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.78 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $6.84 | +4.9% | 4.2% | 8.7% |
| 2024 | $6.52 | +7.9% | 5.9% | 10.3% |
| 2023 | $6.04 | +6.3% | 5.3% | 9.4% |
| 2022 | $5.68 | +7.0% | 3.2% | 6.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsCVX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Chevron Corporation (CVX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Chevron Corporation (CVX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 53 analysts covering the stock, 33 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $191, implying -0.9% from the current price of $193.
02What is the CVX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CVX is $191 based on 53 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $222 (+15.2% from today), and the low-end target is $166 (-13.8%). The base case model target is $240.
03Is Chevron Corporation (CVX) stock overvalued in 2026?
CVX trades at 15.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Chevron Corporation (CVX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CVX in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — Fluctuations in global crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid prices can materially affect Chevron’s earnings, cash flow, and liquidity. (2) Climate Regulation & Litigation — Chevron faces increasing regulatory scrutiny and climate‑related litigation, including “Climate Superfund” lawsuits seeking damages for infrastructure upgrades. (3) Geopolitical Instability — Tensions in the Middle East and sanctions in regions such as Venezuela can trigger price spikes and supply‑demand imbalances, creating market uncertainty. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Chevron Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CVX will report consensus revenue of $203.2B (+10.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.08 (+47.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $189.9B in revenue.
06When does Chevron Corporation (CVX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CVX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Chevron Corporation generate?
Chevron Corporation (CVX) generated $16.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.8%. CVX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.6% yield) and share repurchases ($11.9B TTM).