Upside case
Bull case
$1417+459.2%
VLO would need investors to value it at roughly 60x earnings — about 49x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
22 bullish · 1 bearish · 37 covering VLO
Strong Buy
1
Buy
21
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$215
-15.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $1417
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $75.8B
VLO price targets
Three scenarios for where VLO stock could go
Current
~$253
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $253
Base
$490
Bull
$1417
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$490+93.4%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Valero Energy Corporation
VLO · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingDecember year-end
Valero Energy is one of the world's largest independent petroleum refiners, converting crude oil into transportation fuels and petrochemical products. It generates revenue primarily from refining operations — gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel — with additional streams from renewable diesel and ethanol production. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale and complex refinery network — 15 refineries with 3.2 million barrels per day capacity — which provides operational efficiency and geographic diversification.
Market Cap
$75.8B
Revenue TTM
$126.2B
Net Income TTM
$4.2B
Net Margin
3.3%
VLO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+92.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.28/$1.75
Revenue
$29.9B/$27.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.66/$3.05
Revenue
$32.2B/$30.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.82/$3.27
Revenue
$30.4B/$28.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.22/$3.16
Revenue
$32.4B/$31.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.28/$1.75 | +30.3% | $29.9B/$27.5B | +8.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.66/$3.05 | +20.0% | $32.2B/$30.0B | +7.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.82/$3.27 | +16.8% | $30.4B/$28.5B | +6.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.22/$3.16 | +33.5% | $32.4B/$31.4B | +3.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$126.4B
+0.2% YoY
FY2
$120.5B
-4.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$17.16
+21.6% YoY
FY2
$14.64
-14.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.9B
FCF Margin: 4.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
VLO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
VLO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $125.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Refining
92.3%
-6.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
74.7%
-5.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Refining is the largest disclosed segment at 92.3% of FY 2025 revenue, down 6.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 74.7%, down 5.9% YoY.
VLO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $270 — implies +9.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
9.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VLO
33.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+33% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
VLO
33.5x
vs
Energy
17.1x
+96% premium
vs VLO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
33.5x
vs
5Y Average
15.7x
+113% premium
Forward PE
10.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-44%
Energy
13.9x
-23%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
33.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
+33%
Energy
17.1x
+96%
5Y Avg
15.7x
+113%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Energy
0.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-27%
Energy
8.0x
+38%
5Y Avg
6.2x
+80%
Price/FCF
15.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
-29%
Energy
13.8x
+9%
5Y Avg
6.9x
+120%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-80%
Energy
1.6x
-63%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+95%
Dividend Yield
1.79%
S&P 500
1.87%
-4%
Energy
2.73%
-34%
5Y Avg
3.56%
-50%
| Metric | VLO | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg VLO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.8x | 19.1x-44% | 13.9x-23% | — |
| Trailing PE | 33.5x | 25.1x+33% | 17.1x+96% | 15.7x+113% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.1x | 15.2x-27% | 8.0x+38% | 6.2x+80% |
| Price/FCF | 15.1x | 21.1x-29% | 13.8x | 6.9x+120% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-80% | 1.6x-63% | 0.3x+95% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.79% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 3.56% |
VLO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVLO Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
VLO returns 5.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$126.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
7.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.11
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.2× FCF
~1.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.2%
Dividend
1.8%
Buyback
3.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.6B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.55
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
59.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
299M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageVLO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Climate Litigation Risk
Valero faces lawsuits in Oregon and California alleging deceptive disclosures and antitrust/consumer protection violations related to climate change. These cases could result in significant legal costs, fines, and reputational damage that may impact earnings and shareholder value.
High Risk
Environmental & Safety Litigation
The company is exposed to litigation from environmental, health, and safety incidents arising from its operations. Potential fines, cleanup costs, and operational disruptions could materially affect profitability.
High Risk
Refining Margin Pressure
Valero anticipates pressure on capture rates and product crack spreads, which could reduce refining margins and shareholder cash returns. Declining margins may constrain capital allocation and dividend payouts.
Medium
Safety & Shutdown Risk
A March 2026 explosion and fire at the Port Arthur refinery led to a lawsuit alleging failure to provide a safe working environment. Unplanned shutdowns and safety incidents can increase operating costs and impair throughput.
Medium
Regulatory Impact on Refineries
Potential new oil regulations, especially in California, could impose additional compliance costs or restrict operations at Valero’s refineries. Regulatory changes may necessitate capital expenditures or operational adjustments.
Medium
Energy Market Volatility
The energy sector’s volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions and crude oil price swings, can affect refining margins and feedstock costs. Sudden market shifts may impact Valero’s earnings and cash flow.
Lower
AI Data Security Risk
The increasing sophistication of AI technologies heightens risks related to data privacy and security. Breaches could lead to regulatory penalties and reputational harm.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VLO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Gulf Coast Refining Network
Valero operates 15 refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast, giving it access to diverse crude sources and efficient logistics. The network’s high utilization rates help preserve margins amid volatile energy markets, supporting consistent cash flow generation.
Pioneering Low‑Carbon Fuel Production
Through its Diamond Green Diesel joint venture, Valero is one of the world’s largest producers of low‑carbon fuels, converting waste feedstocks into renewable diesel. The company is also expanding into Sustainable Aviation Fuel, positioning it at the forefront of lower‑carbon transportation solutions.
Strategic Capital Allocation for Growth
Valero balances shareholder returns with reinvestment, paying a 6% dividend increase to $1.20 per share and engaging in buybacks. This disciplined approach aims to maximize near‑term value while funding long‑term growth projects.
Market‑Driven Margin Expansion
Geopolitical tensions have tightened refined fuel supply, widening crack spreads and boosting diesel and gasoline prices relative to crude. Valero’s ability to process heavier, discounted crude grades gives it a competitive advantage in this environment.
Strong Recent Financial Performance
In Q4 2025, Valero reported adjusted net income of $1.2 billion, or $3.82 per share, and $3.3 billion ($10.61 per share) for FY 2025. The company consistently beats earnings and revenue estimates, reinforcing its financial strength.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VLO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$253.45
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$115.65
+119.2% from the low
52-Week High
$258.43
-1.9% from the high
1 Month
+3.20%
3 Month
+30.55%
YTD
+53.3%
1 Year
+112.4%
3Y CAGR
+33.3%
5Y CAGR
+25.9%
10Y CAGR
+16.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VLO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.8x
vs 11.7x median
-8% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.2%
vs +1.7% median
-90% below peer median
Net Margin
3.3%
vs 3.0% median
+10% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VLO VLO Valero Energy Corporation | $75.8B | 10.8x | +0.2% | 3.3% | Buy | -15.3% |
MPC MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | $76.7B | 11.7x | +4.0% | 3.4% | Buy | -17.6% |
PSX PSX Phillips 66 | $72.3B | 12.3x | +3.4% | 3.0% | Buy | -9.4% |
PBF PBF PBF Energy Inc. | $5.4B | 8.4x | -2.1% | -0.5% | Hold | -17.7% |
DK DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. | $3.0B | 13.0x | -4.9% | -0.5% | Hold | -9.6% |
PAR PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | $3.4B | 6.2x | +1.7% | 4.9% | Buy | -11.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VLO Dividend and Capital Return
VLO returns capital mainly through $2.6B/year in buybacks (3.4% buyback yield), with a modest 1.79% dividend — combining for 5.2% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.4%
Dividend Yield
1.79%
Payout Ratio
59.8%
How VLO Splits Its Return
Div 1.79%
Buyback 3.4%
Dividend 1.79%Buybacks 3.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.55
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.9%
5Y Div CAGR
2.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.6B
Estimated Shares Retired
10M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
299M
At 3.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.52 | +5.6% | 5.2% | 8.0% |
| 2024 | $4.28 | +4.9% | 7.3% | 10.8% |
| 2023 | $4.08 | +4.1% | 11.2% | 14.4% |
| 2022 | $3.92 | 0.0% | 9.1% | 12.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsVLO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $215, implying -15.3% from the current price of $253.
02What is the VLO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VLO is $215 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $263 (+3.8% from today), and the low-end target is $178 (-29.8%). The base case model target is $490.
03Is Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) stock overvalued in 2026?
VLO trades at 10.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VLO in 2026 are: (1) Climate Litigation Risk — Valero faces lawsuits in Oregon and California alleging deceptive disclosures and antitrust/consumer protection violations related to climate change. (2) Environmental & Safety Litigation — The company is exposed to litigation from environmental, health, and safety incidents arising from its operations. (3) Refining Margin Pressure — Valero anticipates pressure on capture rates and product crack spreads, which could reduce refining margins and shareholder cash returns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Valero Energy Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VLO will report consensus revenue of $126.4B (+0.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $17.16 (+21.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $120.5B in revenue.
06When does Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for VLO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Valero Energy Corporation generate?
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) generated $5.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.7%. VLO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.8% yield) and share repurchases ($2.6B TTM).