Upside case
Bull case
$347+47.0%
VLO would need investors to value it at roughly 12x earnings — about 4x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
21 bullish · 1 bearish · 37 covering VLO
Strong Buy
1
Buy
20
Hold
15
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$245
+3.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$166 – $347
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $70.7B
VLO price targets
Three scenarios for where VLO stock could go
Current
~$236
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $236
Bear
$166
Base
$264
Bull
$347
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$264+11.6%
This is close to how the market is already pricing VLO — at roughly 9x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$166-29.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push VLO down roughly 30% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Valero Energy Corporation
VLO · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingDecember year-end
Valero Energy is one of the world's largest independent petroleum refiners, converting crude oil into transportation fuels and petrochemical products. It generates revenue primarily from refining operations — gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel — with additional streams from renewable diesel and ethanol production. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale and complex refinery network — 15 refineries with 3.2 million barrels per day capacity — which provides operational efficiency and geographic diversification.
Market Cap
$70.7B
Revenue TTM
$126.2B
Net Income TTM
$4.2B
Net Margin
3.3%
VLO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+92.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.28/$1.75
Revenue
$29.9B/$27.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.66/$3.05
Revenue
$32.2B/$30.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.82/$3.27
Revenue
$30.4B/$28.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.22/$3.16
Revenue
$32.4B/$31.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.28/$1.75 | +30.3% | $29.9B/$27.5B | +8.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.66/$3.05 | +20.0% | $32.2B/$30.0B | +7.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.82/$3.27 | +16.8% | $30.4B/$28.5B | +6.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.22/$3.16 | +33.5% | $32.4B/$31.4B | +3.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$131.4B
+4.1% YoY
FY2
$131.8B
+0.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$17.43
+23.5% YoY
FY2
$14.65
-15.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.9B
FCF Margin: 4.7%
Next Earnings
July 23, 2026
Expected EPS
$9.64
Expected Revenue
$38.5B
VLO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
VLO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $125.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Refining
92.3%
-6.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
74.7%
-5.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Refining is the largest disclosed segment at 92.3% of FY 2025 revenue, down 6.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 74.7%, down 5.9% YoY.
VLO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $286 — implies +21.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
21.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VLO
31.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+28% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
VLO
31.2x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+102% premium
vs VLO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.2x
vs
5Y Average
15.7x
+99% premium
Forward PE
8.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-55%
Energy
12.5x
-32%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+28%
Energy
15.5x
+102%
5Y Avg
15.7x
+99%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-32%
Energy
7.8x
+33%
5Y Avg
6.2x
+69%
Price/FCF
14.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
-32%
Energy
13.8x
+2%
5Y Avg
6.9x
+105%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-81%
Energy
1.4x
-59%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+82%
Dividend Yield
1.92%
S&P 500
1.91%
+1%
Energy
3.47%
-45%
5Y Avg
3.56%
-46%
| Metric | VLO | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg VLO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.4x | 18.8x-55% | 12.5x-32% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.2x | 24.4x+28% | 15.5x+102% | 15.7x+99% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.4x | 15.2x-32% | 7.8x+33% | 6.2x+69% |
| Price/FCF | 14.0x | 20.7x-32% | 13.8x | 6.9x+105% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-81% | 1.4x-59% | 0.3x+82% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.92% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 3.56% |
VLO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVLO Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
VLO returns 5.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$126.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
7.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.11
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.2× FCF
~1.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
1.9%
Buyback
3.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.6B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.55
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
59.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
299M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageVLO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Crack spread volatility
Valero's earnings depend on the ability to buy crude cheaply and sell refined products at higher prices, making crack spread cycles a critical risk.
High Risk
Sector downgrade risk
Bank of America downgraded Valero to Neutral, reflecting concerns about the refiner's outlook in the oil and gas sector.
Medium
Crude supply dynamics
The company faces challenges navigating crude differentials and expanding Venezuelan supply access, which could impact margins.
Medium
Financial health risks
Valero disclosed 22 risk factors in its earnings report, indicating potential vulnerabilities in its financial stability.
Lower
Market sentiment shifts
Investor sentiment may weaken due to broader sector risks or unfavorable crack spread trends.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VLO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Record refining throughput
Valero Energy Corporation has posted record refining throughput, indicating strong operational performance and capacity utilization.
Dividend hike
The company has increased its dividend, signaling confidence in its financial health and commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Share repurchase programs
Fully executed share repurchase programs demonstrate management's belief in undervaluation and commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
Analyst price target upgrades
Broad-based analyst price target upgrades reflect growing optimism about Valero's future performance and valuation.
Downstream sector tailwinds
The company benefits from favorable downstream sector trends, which are expected to drive profitability and growth.
Strong earnings announcement
Upcoming earnings results are anticipated to be positive, further bolstering investor confidence in the stock.
Bullish investor sentiment
Platforms like Reddit's r/wallstreetbets are building a bull case, highlighting growing retail investor interest and momentum.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VLO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$236.30
52W Range Position
78%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$130.78
+80.7% from the low
52-Week High
$265.61
-11.0% from the high
1 Month
-8.60%
3 Month
-0.91%
YTD
+42.9%
1 Year
+69.5%
3Y CAGR
+28.7%
5Y CAGR
+25.5%
10Y CAGR
+16.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VLO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.4x
vs 8.0x median
+5% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.1%
vs +3.9% median
+7% above peer median
Net Margin
3.3%
vs 3.0% median
+10% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VLO VLO Valero Energy Corporation | $70.7B | 8.4x | +4.1% | 3.3% | Buy | +3.5% |
MPC MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | $70.9B | 8.2x | +3.9% | 3.4% | Buy | +6.8% |
PSX PSX Phillips 66 | $66.6B | 9.4x | +1.5% | 3.0% | Buy | +9.0% |
PBF PBF PBF Energy Inc. | $4.4B | 5.3x | +13.1% | -0.5% | Hold | +16.0% |
DK DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. | $2.5B | 8.0x | +2.8% | -0.5% | Hold | +13.3% |
PAR PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | $2.5B | 4.0x | +9.9% | 6.0% | Buy | +32.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VLO Dividend and Capital Return
VLO returns capital mainly through $2.6B/year in buybacks (3.7% buyback yield), with a modest 1.92% dividend — combining for 5.6% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.7%
Dividend Yield
1.92%
Payout Ratio
59.8%
How VLO Splits Its Return
Div 1.92%
Buyback 3.7%
Dividend 1.92%Buybacks 3.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.55
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.9%
5Y Div CAGR
2.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.6B
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
299M
At 3.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.52 | +5.6% | 5.2% | 8.0% |
| 2024 | $4.28 | +4.9% | 7.3% | 10.8% |
| 2023 | $4.08 | +4.1% | 11.2% | 14.4% |
| 2022 | $3.92 | 0.0% | 9.1% | 12.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsVLO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $245, implying +3.5% from the current price of $236. The bear case scenario is $166 and the bull case is $347.
02What is the VLO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VLO is $245 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $289 (+22.3% from today), and the low-end target is $178 (-24.7%). The base case model target is $264.
03Is Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) stock overvalued in 2026?
VLO trades at 8.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VLO in 2026 are: (1) Crack spread volatility — Valero's earnings depend on the ability to buy crude cheaply and sell refined products at higher prices, making crack spread cycles a critical risk. (2) Sector downgrade risk — Bank of America downgraded Valero to Neutral, reflecting concerns about the refiner's outlook in the oil and gas sector. (3) Crude supply dynamics — The company faces challenges navigating crude differentials and expanding Venezuelan supply access, which could impact margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Valero Energy Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VLO will report consensus revenue of $131.4B (+4.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $17.43 (+23.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $131.8B in revenue.
06When does Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) report its next earnings?
Valero Energy Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-23. Consensus expects EPS of $9.64 and revenue of $38.5B. Over recent quarters, VLO has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Valero Energy Corporation generate?
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) generated $5.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.7%. VLO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.9% yield) and share repurchases ($2.6B TTM).