Upside case
Bull case
$135+74.8%
QSR would need investors to value it at roughly 33x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
44
analysts
27 bullish · 2 bearish · 44 covering QSR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
27
Hold
15
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$84
+8.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$65 – $135
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $26.7B
QSR price targets
Three scenarios for where QSR stock could go
Current
~$77
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $77
Bear
$65
Base
$92
Bull
$135
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$92+19.4%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$65-16.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push QSR down roughly 16% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Restaurant Brands International Inc.
QSR · NYSEConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsDecember year-end
Restaurant Brands International is a global quick-service restaurant franchisor operating four major brands — Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, and Firehouse Subs. It generates revenue primarily through franchise fees and royalties from its network of approximately 29,000 restaurants worldwide, with additional income from company-operated locations. The company's key advantage lies in its portfolio of established, complementary brands with strong regional presences — particularly Tim Hortons' dominance in Canada and Burger King's global footprint — creating diversified revenue streams and operational synergies.
Market Cap
$26.7B
Revenue TTM
$9.6B
Net Income TTM
$955M
Net Margin
10.0%
QSR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.75/$0.78
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.94/$0.97
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.03/$1.00
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.96/$0.95
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.75/$0.78 | -4.1% | $2.1B/$2.1B | -1.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.94/$0.97 | -2.9% | $2.4B/$2.3B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.03/$1.00 | +3.2% | $2.4B/$2.4B | +2.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.96/$0.95 | +1.4% | $2.5B/$2.4B | +2.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.3B
+10.7% YoY
FY2
$11.4B
+11.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.41
+68.6% YoY
FY2
$3.80
+11.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 15.8%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.83
Expected Revenue
$2.2B
QSR beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
QSR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Tim Hortons
62.5%
+5.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
48.3%
+20.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Tim Hortons is the largest disclosed segment at 62.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.1% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 48.3%, up 20.5% YoY.
QSR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $104 — implies +29.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
29.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
QSR
32.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+30% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
QSR
32.8x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+68% premium
vs QSR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.8x
vs
5Y Average
22.6x
+46% premium
Forward PE
19.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-0%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+25%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
+30%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+68%
5Y Avg
22.6x
+46%
PEG Ratio
4.11x
S&P 500
1.75x
+135%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
+331%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+15%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+54%
5Y Avg
19.6x
-11%
Price/FCF
18.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
-13%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+23%
5Y Avg
22.5x
-18%
Price/Sales
2.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-10%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+298%
5Y Avg
4.3x
-34%
Dividend Yield
3.14%
S&P 500
1.88%
+67%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
+46%
5Y Avg
3.31%
-5%
| Metric | QSR | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg QSR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.0x | 19.1x | 15.2x+25% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.8x | 25.2x+30% | 19.6x+68% | 22.6x+46% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.11x | 1.75x+135% | 0.95x+331% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.5x | 15.3x+15% | 11.4x+54% | 19.6x-11% |
| Price/FCF | 18.5x | 21.3x-13% | 15.0x+23% | 22.5x-18% |
| Price/Sales | 2.8x | 3.1x | 0.7x+298% | 4.3x-34% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.14% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 3.31% |
QSR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolQSR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
QSR generates $1.5B in free cash flow at a 15.8% margin — returns 3.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
33.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
25.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.08
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
10.8× FCF
~10.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.1%
Dividend
3.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.42
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
142.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
347M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageQSR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Inflation and Commodity Costs
Rising prices for key ingredients such as beef, chicken, and coffee, along with increased utility and rent costs, can significantly erode profitability. Given QSR's high-volume, thin-margin business model, even small increases in these costs can have a substantial negative impact on financial performance.
High Risk
Debt and Leverage
QSR's high debt-to-equity ratio poses significant risks to its financial stability and flexibility, particularly during adverse market conditions. This leverage can limit the company's ability to respond to economic downturns or unexpected financial challenges.
High Risk
Labor Shortages and High Turnover
The QSR industry is currently facing significant labor shortages and high employee turnover, which can lead to increased wages and operational costs. This situation is exacerbated by competition for workers, potentially impacting service quality and profitability.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Global supply chain issues can lead to delays in ingredient deliveries, shortages, and increased costs. Such disruptions can negatively affect menu consistency and operational efficiency, ultimately impacting customer satisfaction and sales.
High Risk
Economic Sensitivity
The QSR market is highly sensitive to economic downturns, inflation, and fluctuating consumer spending. A reduction in discretionary spending can directly impact sales volume and average order value, posing a significant risk to revenue.
Medium
Legal and Regulatory Compliance
QSR is subject to numerous laws and regulations related to food safety, labor, and environmental impact. Non-compliance can lead to fines, legal challenges, and reputational damage, which can adversely affect financial performance.
Medium
Intense Competition and Market Saturation
The QSR industry is characterized by intense competition and market saturation in certain regions, which can lead to thin profit margins. This competitive landscape requires QSR to continuously innovate and adapt to maintain market share.
Medium
Changing Consumer Preferences
Evolving consumer demand for healthier, fresher, and sustainably sourced food necessitates that QSR adapt its menus and offerings. Failure to meet these changing preferences can result in lost market share and declining sales.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why QSR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
International Growth Expansion
QSR is experiencing rapid international expansion, particularly through its franchise-led model in markets like China, India, Turkey, Japan, and Brazil. This strategy drives double-digit unit and system-wide sales growth, contributing to recurring, capital-light revenue streams and increased long-term earnings visibility.
Strong Brand Portfolio
The company owns prominent brands such as Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs, which operate independently and have a long history of serving customers. This brand strength supports customer loyalty and drives sales across its diverse offerings.
Franchise-Focused Business Model
QSR operates with a primarily franchised business model globally, generating revenue from royalties, rents, and markups on supplies. This asset-light model contributes to significant free cash flow generation, enhancing financial flexibility.
Significant Capital Return Plans
The company has outlined plans for significant capital returns, including resuming share repurchases and setting a total capital return goal of $1.6 billion for 2026. This commitment to returning capital to shareholders reflects confidence in future cash flow generation.
Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
QSR has a strong balance sheet and aims to achieve an investment-grade credit rating by 2028, while also committing to share buybacks and reducing leverage. Historically, QSR has shown a favorable free cash flow yield compared to its peers, indicating robust financial health.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
QSR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$77.17
52W Range Position
77%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$61.33
+25.8% from the low
52-Week High
$81.96
-5.8% from the high
1 Month
-0.07%
3 Month
+8.85%
YTD
+13.8%
1 Year
+13.9%
3Y CAGR
+2.1%
5Y CAGR
+2.4%
10Y CAGR
+6.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
QSR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.0x
vs 15.0x median
+27% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.7%
vs +1.9% median
+471% above peer median
Net Margin
10.0%
vs 8.4% median
+18% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QSR QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. | $26.7B | 19.0x | +10.7% | 10.0% | Buy | +8.5% |
MCD MCD McDonald's Corporation | $202.3B | 21.5x | +7.0% | 32.0% | Buy | +24.0% |
YUM YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. | $43.1B | 23.1x | +7.8% | 20.5% | Hold | +11.8% |
WEN WEN The Wendy's Company | $1.3B | 11.5x | +1.9% | 8.4% | Hold | +16.2% |
JAC JACK Jack in the Box Inc. | $261M | 4.0x | -7.0% | -5.2% | Hold | +46.1% |
DEN DENN Denny's Corporation | $322M | 15.0x | +0.2% | 2.2% | Buy | -4.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
QSR Dividend and Capital Return
QSR returns 3.1% total yield, led by a 3.14% dividend, raised 14 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
3.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.14%
Payout Ratio
1.4%
How QSR Splits Its Return
Div 3.14%
Dividend 3.14%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.42
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.7%
5Y Div CAGR
3.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
347M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.65 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.48 | +6.9% | 0.0% | 3.6% |
| 2024 | $2.32 | +5.5% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| 2023 | $2.20 | +1.9% | 1.4% | 4.2% |
| 2022 | $2.16 | +1.9% | 1.1% | 4.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsQSR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $84, implying +8.5% from the current price of $77. The bear case scenario is $65 and the bull case is $135.
02What is the QSR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for QSR is $84 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $90 (+16.6% from today), and the low-end target is $71 (-8.0%). The base case model target is $92.
03Is Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) stock overvalued in 2026?
QSR trades at 19.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for QSR in 2026 are: (1) Inflation and Commodity Costs — Rising prices for key ingredients such as beef, chicken, and coffee, along with increased utility and rent costs, can significantly erode profitability. (2) Debt and Leverage — QSR's high debt-to-equity ratio poses significant risks to its financial stability and flexibility, particularly during adverse market conditions. (3) Labor Shortages and High Turnover — The QSR industry is currently facing significant labor shortages and high employee turnover, which can lead to increased wages and operational costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates QSR will report consensus revenue of $10.3B (+10.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.41 (+68.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.4B in revenue.
06When does Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) report its next earnings?
Restaurant Brands International Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.83 and revenue of $2.2B. Over recent quarters, QSR has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Restaurant Brands International Inc. generate?
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.8%. QSR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.1% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).