Upside case
Bull case
$332+115.5%
YUM would need investors to value it at roughly 49x earnings — about 26x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
51
analysts
18 bullish · 3 bearish · 51 covering YUM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
30
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$174
+13.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$129 – $332
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $42.5B
YUM price targets
Three scenarios for where YUM stock could go
Current
~$154
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $154
Bear
$129
Base
$208
Bull
$332
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$208+35.2%
At 31x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$129-15.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push YUM down roughly 16% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Yum! Brands, Inc.
YUM · NYSEConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsDecember year-end
Yum! Brands is a global quick-service restaurant company that franchises and operates iconic fast-food chains including KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and The Habit Burger Grill. It generates revenue primarily through franchise fees and royalties — collecting ongoing payments from franchisees who operate the vast majority of its locations — supplemented by company-operated restaurant sales. The company's key advantage lies in its portfolio of globally recognized brands with massive scale, which creates powerful economies of scale in marketing, supply chain, and franchise system management.
Market Cap
$42.5B
Revenue TTM
$8.5B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
Net Margin
20.5%
YUM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.44/$1.46
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.58/$1.49
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.73/$1.76
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.50/$1.38
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.44/$1.46 | -1.4% | $1.9B/$1.9B | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.58/$1.49 | +6.0% | $2.0B/$2.0B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.73/$1.76 | -1.7% | $2.5B/$2.4B | +2.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.50/$1.38 | +8.7% | $2.1B/$2.0B | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.1B
+7.8% YoY
FY2
$9.8B
+7.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.81
+9.3% YoY
FY2
$7.52
+10.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 19.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
YUM beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
YUM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
KFC Global Division
43.1%
+14.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
US
73.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
KFC Global Division is the largest disclosed segment at 43.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 14.3% YoY.
US is the largest reported region at 73.7%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
YUM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $158 — implies -0.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
YUM
27.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+10% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
YUM
27.7x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+44% premium
vs YUM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.7x
vs
5Y Average
26.2x
+6% premium
Forward PE
22.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+19%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+51%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
+10%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+44%
5Y Avg
26.2x
+6%
PEG Ratio
2.04x
S&P 500
1.72x
+19%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
+124%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+29%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+73%
5Y Avg
20.6x
-5%
Price/FCF
26.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
+23%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+78%
5Y Avg
28.3x
-8%
Price/Sales
5.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+66%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+624%
5Y Avg
5.4x
-5%
Dividend Yield
1.84%
S&P 500
1.87%
-1%
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
-17%
5Y Avg
1.76%
+5%
| Metric | YUM | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg YUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.8x | 19.1x+19% | 15.1x+51% | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.7x | 25.1x+10% | 19.3x+44% | 26.2x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.04x | 1.72x+19% | 0.91x+124% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.6x | 15.2x+29% | 11.3x+73% | 20.6x |
| Price/FCF | 26.0x | 21.1x+23% | 14.6x+78% | 28.3x |
| Price/Sales | 5.2x | 3.1x+66% | 0.7x+624% | 5.4x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.84% | 1.87% | 2.23% | 1.76% |
YUM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolYUM Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
YUM generates $1.6B in free cash flow at a 19.4% margin — 48.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
31.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
20.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.23
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
19.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
48.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
22.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$709M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$11.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.8× FCF
~6.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.1%
Dividend
1.8%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$552M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.84
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
50.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
276M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageYUM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Franchisee Dependency
97% of Yum! Brands restaurants are operated by franchisees. Financial distress or underperformance of these franchisees can directly erode operating income and growth prospects, as the company has limited control over their operations.
High Risk
Food Safety & Supplier Risk
Reliance on third‑party suppliers and delivery aggregators exposes Yum! Brands to food safety incidents beyond its control. Such incidents can trigger adverse publicity, consumer complaints, litigation, and regulatory investigations, potentially damaging brand reputation and revenue.
High Risk
China Market Exposure
Yum! Brands’ significant operations through Yum China make it vulnerable to political instability, regulatory shifts, and U.S.-China tensions. Disputes over the Master License Agreement and regulatory changes could disrupt operations and materially impact financial results.
Medium
Brand Relevance Risk
The underperformance or declining relevance of key brands, notably Pizza Hut, threatens overall portfolio growth. A sustained decline could erode market share and investor sentiment, limiting revenue expansion.
Medium
Economic Sensitivity
Yum! Brands is sensitive to changes in consumer discretionary spending, inflation, and interest rates. Rising operating costs driven by inflation can offset revenue growth and squeeze profit margins, affecting profitability.
Medium
Legal & Reputational Risk
The company faces potential litigation that could result in significant legal expenses and reputational damage. High‑profile lawsuits or regulatory penalties could adversely affect financial condition and brand perception.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why YUM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
97% Franchise-Heavy Business Model
Yum! Brands operates with 97% of its locations franchised, creating a stable and predictable revenue stream through franchise royalties and marketing fees. This asset‑light model minimizes capital intensity and generates recurring cash flows that enable rapid global expansion.
$68B Systemwide Sales & 63K Restaurants
By the end of 2025, Yum! Brands generated over $68 billion in systemwide sales from more than 63,000 restaurants worldwide, positioning it as a major player in the restaurant industry.
Diversified QSR Brands & Loyalty Push
The company owns well‑known brands such as KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, offering diversification across different QSR segments. Recent strategic moves, like KFC’s value offerings and Taco Bell’s loyalty programs, aim to capture market share and drive sales.
8.81% Revenue Growth & 11.78% EPS Upside
Yum! Brands reported an 8.81% increase in revenue in 2025 compared to the previous year, and analysts expect earnings to grow by approximately 11.78% in the coming year. The company’s free cash flow margin is also noted as being among the best in the restaurant sector.
Digital Transformation & Byte Tech Boost
Investments in digital transformation and proprietary technology, such as the Byte platform, are expected to improve franchisee economics and support long‑term operating profit and EPS growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
YUM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$153.89
52W Range Position
52%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$137.33
+12.1% from the low
52-Week High
$169.39
-9.2% from the high
1 Month
-2.21%
3 Month
-4.47%
YTD
+2.3%
1 Year
+5.0%
3Y CAGR
+3.8%
5Y CAGR
+4.9%
10Y CAGR
+10.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
YUM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.8x
vs 20.1x median
+13% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.8%
vs +1.9% median
+317% above peer median
Net Margin
20.5%
vs 8.4% median
+143% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YUM YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. | $42.5B | 22.8x | +7.8% | 20.5% | Hold | +13.3% |
MCD MCD McDonald's Corporation | $203.1B | 21.6x | +7.0% | 32.0% | Buy | +23.5% |
QSR QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. | $26.8B | 20.1x | +10.7% | 10.0% | Buy | +2.5% |
WEN WEN The Wendy's Company | $1.3B | 11.5x | +1.9% | 8.4% | Hold | +16.9% |
JAC JACK Jack in the Box Inc. | $246M | 3.7x | -7.0% | -5.2% | Hold | +55.1% |
PZZ PZZA Papa John's International, Inc. | $1.1B | 22.9x | -1.9% | 3.1% | Buy | +13.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
YUM Dividend and Capital Return
YUM returns 3.1% total yield, led by a 1.84% dividend, raised 8 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.3%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
1.84%
Payout Ratio
50.6%
How YUM Splits Its Return
Div 1.84%
Buyback 1.3%
Dividend 1.84%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.84
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.6%
5Y Div CAGR
8.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$552M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
276M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.84 | +6.0% | 1.3% | 3.2% |
| 2024 | $2.68 | +10.7% | 1.2% | 3.1% |
| 2023 | $2.42 | +6.1% | 0.1% | 2.0% |
| 2022 | $2.28 | +14.0% | 3.2% | 5.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsYUM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 30 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $174, implying +13.3% from the current price of $154. The bear case scenario is $129 and the bull case is $332.
02What is the YUM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for YUM is $174 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $190 (+23.5% from today), and the low-end target is $158 (+2.7%). The base case model target is $208.
03Is Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) stock overvalued in 2026?
YUM trades at 22.8x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for YUM in 2026 are: (1) Franchisee Dependency — 97% of Yum! Brands restaurants are operated by franchisees. (2) Food Safety & Supplier Risk — Reliance on third‑party suppliers and delivery aggregators exposes Yum! Brands to food safety incidents beyond its control. (3) China Market Exposure — Yum! Brands’ significant operations through Yum China make it vulnerable to political instability, regulatory shifts, and U. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Yum! Brands, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates YUM will report consensus revenue of $9.1B (+7.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.81 (+9.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.8B in revenue.
06When does Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for YUM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Yum! Brands, Inc. generate?
Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.4%. YUM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.8% yield) and share repurchases ($552M TTM).